General MLS Discussion

I really am endlessly fascinated by this economics question. I have an ongoing argument with my wife that if our Miami tix could sell for $1000, there is no difference between us keeping them vs us buying $1000 tix if we didn't already have them. Either way we are trading $1000 for having the tix. She refuses to see it this way. She would never spend $1000 on these tix. But she absolutely won't consider selling them for $1000.
I know one person who actually acts that way, mostly. At different times he has had full or partial ticket plans for the Knicks, Yankees and Giants. As soon as he had his tickets he would list every game on Stubhub at ridiculous asking prices. Occasionally they got bought. He never regretted it, even if it was a game he really wanted to see, "If someone wants to pay me an inflated price for my seat, they can have it." But I think he priced with a percentage over the expected value for each game individually. So using NYCFC/Miami as an example, if the going rate is say $450 for a seat in the 200s, he would ask maybe $650 for that game. For a run of the mill $55 game, he might ask $75 or $80. So he always got what he perceived as above market value for any specific game. not just market. But it's the closest thing I know to someone treating the two situations you describe as the same.

With respect to your wife's POV, which is shared by most, I believe it has reasonable logic on it's side. Let's say some has a NYCFC season ticket plan at $1,800, so that the average ticket price per game is $100. NYCFC might value some tickets at $75 and Miami at $400. First, it's rational for the STH to act as if every ticket cost $100, because they were bought at a price that could only be bought as a package. The cost assigned by NYCFC is somewhere between market and fictional anyway.
Second, even if the actual secondary market price for that seat the Miami game is $1,000, that does not change that the STH paid $100 (or $400 if you insist). So the STH sits and thinks, "I gladly paid $100 each for the Miami tickets, or maybe I paid $400, while getting the rest of the season at an even bigger discount. And I want to go to the Miami game at those prices which I already paid and I can so I will. But I would not pay $1,000 because I do not think it is worth $1,000 to go. Nonetheless, I sell not my Miami tickets for $1k each, because I want to go to the Miami game for $100/$400 a ticket and I can do that. So I will. Stated another way, just because it is not worth $1k for me to go to the Miami game is not the same as saying it is worth $1k for me to go. That other people want to go so much they will pay $1,000 per ticket does not change that I am going for less, and am rationally happy to do so." I understand the reasoning behind the counter argument: by refusing an offer of $1,000 for your ticket you are effectively giving up $1,000 to go. But they are not the same.

Also, it is fully rational to consider real transactions as real and imputed or potential ones as fantasy. Economists love to consider things like imputed income not earned by stay at home parents offset by imputed service fees not paid for childcare services rendered by hypothetical third parties. Same for the imputed rent homeowners pay to themselves for the privilege of living in the house they bought. I think the latter might even be considered when calculating GDP. But GAAP accounting and tax accounting and Quicken for personal finance just count actual transactions. If I don't sell my Miami tix then I paid what I paid in an actual transaction. The $1,000 is fantasy until it's not when and if I make it happen.
 
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Bogert reports that other teams in MLS say Miami has to shed salary and because everyone knows how desperate Miami is everyone is holding out for a fire sale. The deadline is February 20 to be cap compliant.

Inter Miami must shed players and more MLS news: Bogert
From the article:
“They are screwed,” said a high-ranking sporting executive at another club. “Trust me.”


not surprised at all and great that teams aren’t bending over to save Miami. Here comes an 11th hour call from cohiba Don to save his golden goose.
 
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I know one person who actually acts that way, mostly. At different times he has had full or partial ticket plans for the Knicks, Yankees and Giants. As soon as he had his tickets he would list every game on Stubhub at ridiculous asking prices. Occasionally they got bought. He never regretted it, even if it was a game he really wanted to see, "If someone wants to pay me an inflated price for my seat, they can have it." But I think he priced with a percentage over the expected value for each game individually. So using NYCFC/Miami as an example, if the going rate is say $450 for a seat in the 200s, he would ask maybe $650 for that game. For a run of the mill $55 game, he might ask $75 or $80. So he always got what he perceived as above market value for any specific game. not just market. But it's the closest thing I know to someone treating the two situations you describe as the same.

With respect to your wife's POV, which is shared by most, I believe it has reasonable logic on it's side. Let's say some has a NYCFC season ticket plan at $1,800, so that the average ticket price per game is $100. NYCFC might value some tickets at $75 and Miami at $400. First, it's rational for the STH to act as if every ticket cost $100, because they were bought at a price that could only be bought as a package. The cost assigned by NYCFC is somewhere between market and fictional anyway.
Second, even if the actual secondary market price for that seat the Miami game is $1,000, that does not change that the STH paid $100 (or $400 if you insist). So the STH sits and thinks, "I gladly paid $100 each for the Miami tickets, or maybe I paid $400, while getting the rest of the season at an even bigger discount. And I want to go to the Miami game at those prices which I already paid and I can so I will. But I would not pay $1,000 because I do not think it is worth $1,000 to go. Nonetheless, I sell not my Miami tickets for $1k each, because I want to go to the Miami game for $100/$400 a ticket and I can do that. So I will. Stated another way, just because it is not worth $1k for me to go to the Miami game is not the same as saying it is worth $1k for me to go. That other people want to go so much they will pay $1,000 per ticket does not change that I am going for less, and am rationally happy to do so." I understand the reasoning behind the counter argument: by refusing an offer of $1,000 for your ticket you are effectively giving up $1,000 to go. But they are not the same.

Also, it is fully rational to consider real transactions as real and imputed or potential ones as fantasy. Economists love to consider things like imputed income not earned by stay at home parents offset by imputed service fees not paid for childcare services rendered by hypothetical third parties. Same for the imputed rent homeowners pay to themselves for the privilege of living in the house they bought. I think the latter might even be considered when calculating GDP. But GAAP accounting and tax accounting and Quicken for personal finance just count actual transactions. If I don't sell my Miami tix then I paid what I paid in an actual transaction. The $1,000 is fantasy until it's not when and if I make it happen.
I hear you and I get the rationale from my wife. For me, whether I am buying or selling, it's like there is a table with a pair of tickets and $1,000. I get to pick which one I grab. Same either way.

My tickets this year also happen to be the two closest seats to the corner flag by the left field foul pole. If the going rate for a random 200s is $450, I have to assume I'm undervaluing at $1,000 the chance to be 5' away from Messi taking a corner kick.
 
I hear you and I get the rationale from my wife. For me, whether I am buying or selling, it's like there is a table with a pair of tickets and $1,000. I get to pick which one I grab. Same either way.

My tickets this year also happen to be the two closest seats to the corner flag by the left field foul pole. If the going rate for a random 200s is $450, I have to assume I'm undervaluing at $1,000 the chance to be 5' away from Messi taking a corner kick.
Your economic analysis is sound. If you give up the chance to sell tickets for $1,000, you have effectively bought them for $1,000. This assumes no transactions costs - and we know the transactions costs are considerable.

It also assumes the decision is being made by The Rational Man, and we know that while that's a good proxy for how decisions get made, humans have cognitive tics that prevent them from being fully rational. Daniel Kahneman won a Nobel Prize for applying the psychology of cognitive dissonance to economics. I don't know the specific name of the cognitive dissonance in this case, but certainly there is a feeling that if you already have the tickets, that's different from going out of pocket for them.
 
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They've also found that in the real world incentives work better than punishments. A $50 reward for doing something is more effective than a $50 fine for not doing the same thing, even though they are economically "the same."
 

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This is really good: MLS is ready to take off its financial training wheels

It sure sounds like big changes are coming:

Messi’s arrival last July renewed a push to ditch or streamline some regulations. Some coaches, CSOs and owners argued for expanded senior rosters, corresponding cap room, and the opening up of an intraleague transfer market. Throughout the summer, momentum grew. Change, however, failed to materialize at the league’s annual December board meeting. Inaction led to widespread ridicule. “We're so slow-moving,” one CSO complained. “It makes no sense to me.”

But Todd Durbin, the MLS executive tasked with formulating roster rules and overseeing the board’s Product Strategy Committee, said last week that the reason for inaction was actually concern that proposed amendments perhaps weren’t “broad, deep and ambitious enough.”
 
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Too bad they didn't change the playoff format. The best-of-three rather than a traditional tie was arguably worth trying, but last year made it clear, it's one game too many. The playoffs dragged on for too long.

I'm curious how you would like the scheduling to work given when Decision Day is and FIFA windows. Because as I previously noted, with Decision Day last year on October 21 because of Leagues Cup, there was no way to get to the MLS Cup Final before the November FIFA window. That inevitably meant change and playoffs that drag on to accommodate FIFA. Once you're dragging out the playoffs, there's no good solution.

Why did they not just go single elimination again even with a mid-playoff gap? Because if you have round 1 a week after Decision Day on October 28, then the conference semifinals would be a week later on November 4, then Conference Finals a week later November 11. Then you are forced to keep everyone inactive for two weeks at the worst possible time before the biggest game of the year. You also risk having known MLS Cup Final players injured while on national team duty. Plus, depending on when Thanksgiving is, MLS Cup often would be Thanksgiving Weekend, aka the biggest College Football day of the regular season. Or you push MLS Cup back another week for a 3 week gap between Conference Finals and MLS Cup, and still deal with CFB Conference Championship games weekend.

The issues in 2024 are the same. Decision Day is October 19 and there is a FIFA window November 11-19. Imagine Miami makes MLS Cup and subsequently Messi gets hurt playing for Argentina. Lol, the fiasco in Hong Kong would be nothing compared to that. Or do you see another way to fit things in that would work? Or are you advocating for 2-game rounds again (personally I hated those), and if so, how would those fit with the 2024 FIFA windows? Do you see a good fit?

There are very real calendar constraints that need to be addressed. My preferred solution is drop Leagues Cup, end the season earlier, and revert to the perfect Playoff setup MLS had in 2019 (2020-21 being altered by Covid and 2022 by late fall World Cup). The season ended Oct 6, playoffs started October 19 (with a FIFA window in between) and ended with MLS Cup on November 10, fitting exactly in between the October and November FIFA windows. The SGE format was very popular. But that's not coming back because they're not killing Leagues Cup and so they can't end the season in time. Some people suggested starting the season a week earlier. They could also add an extra DGW for every team to finish the season earlier and revive the 2019 system. Those are possible but add their own tough trade-offs.
 
Time between DD and MLSC in 2016-18 with 2 game rounds- 7 weeks. Time under current system of mixed 3 game and 1 game - 7 weeks. If one drags so does the other.

Look, maybe people loved our first home playoff experience in 2016 which was effectively over with 70 minutes of game time left (arguably 84). I think not knowing who wins until the final whistle blows is better. Or maybe people enjoy series like 2017 where we won the last 90 minutes while being eliminated. Please no more 2 game sets. They’re unnatural and drag as much as the current way.
 
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I'm curious how you would like the scheduling to work given when Decision Day is and FIFA windows. Because as I previously noted, with Decision Day last year on October 21 because of Leagues Cup, there was no way to get to the MLS Cup Final before the November FIFA window. That inevitably meant change and playoffs that drag on to accommodate FIFA. Once you're dragging out the playoffs, there's no good solution.

Why did they not just go single elimination again even with a mid-playoff gap? Because if you have round 1 a week after Decision Day on October 28, then the conference semifinals would be a week later on November 4, then Conference Finals a week later November 11. Then you are forced to keep everyone inactive for two weeks at the worst possible time before the biggest game of the year. You also risk having known MLS Cup Final players injured while on national team duty. Plus, depending on when Thanksgiving is, MLS Cup often would be Thanksgiving Weekend, aka the biggest College Football day of the regular season. Or you push MLS Cup back another week for a 3 week gap between Conference Finals and MLS Cup, and still deal with CFB Conference Championship games weekend.

The issues in 2024 are the same. Decision Day is October 19 and there is a FIFA window November 11-19. Imagine Miami makes MLS Cup and subsequently Messi gets hurt playing for Argentina. Lol, the fiasco in Hong Kong would be nothing compared to that. Or do you see another way to fit things in that would work? Or are you advocating for 2-game rounds again (personally I hated those), and if so, how would those fit with the 2024 FIFA windows? Do you see a good fit?

There are very real calendar constraints that need to be addressed. My preferred solution is drop Leagues Cup, end the season earlier, and revert to the perfect Playoff setup MLS had in 2019 (2020-21 being altered by Covid and 2022 by late fall World Cup). The season ended Oct 6, playoffs started October 19 (with a FIFA window in between) and ended with MLS Cup on November 10, fitting exactly in between the October and November FIFA windows. The SGE format was very popular. But that's not coming back because they're not killing Leagues Cup and so they can't end the season in time. Some people suggested starting the season a week earlier. They could also add an extra DGW for every team to finish the season earlier and revive the 2019 system. Those are possible but add their own tough trade-offs.
I was thinking the league could eliminate the third game in the best-of-three and just move everything up. By playing the tie you know every team is going to play two playoff games in the first round (after the wildcards) and no one is going to play three, so the first knockout game would go on the date reserved for the third playoff game in the first round.

But I see your point. It's a tricky calendar.

And by dragging, I meant in terms of excitement. There's something to be said for "we live or die today" games. By the time we got to them last year, college football and the NFL were cooking on the weekends and the holidays were upon us. It struck me as counterproductive for a league striving for recognition.

(I freely admit, I very well may have felt much differently about it had we made it in. LOL)
 
Sorry for the harsh words but this was on my youtube HOMEPAGE. not even like clicking into BR football specifically.
What the fuck, BR football? Literally no other shorts were promoted. Just this absolute spamming of messi nonsense.
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Finally watched the RSL game from Wednesday. And my biggest take away was that a high energy can beat Miami in the second half. Just can’t let their attack over power you in the beginning. You have to weather the storm!
 
This is really good: MLS is ready to take off its financial training wheels

It sure sounds like big changes are coming:

Messi’s arrival last July renewed a push to ditch or streamline some regulations. Some coaches, CSOs and owners argued for expanded senior rosters, corresponding cap room, and the opening up of an intraleague transfer market. Throughout the summer, momentum grew. Change, however, failed to materialize at the league’s annual December board meeting. Inaction led to widespread ridicule. “We're so slow-moving,” one CSO complained. “It makes no sense to me.”

But Todd Durbin, the MLS executive tasked with formulating roster rules and overseeing the board’s Product Strategy Committee, said last week that the reason for inaction was actually concern that proposed amendments perhaps weren’t “broad, deep and ambitious enough.”

For the last 10 years or so in the MLS these conversations about spending have been a battle between the older ownership groups that paid small expansion fees and have limited resources and the new ownership groups that are much better resourced and paid massive expansion fees. To me, this article feels less like a sign of imminent things to come and more like an attempt to push the agenda of the spend more camp through selective quotes to the media. We see articles like this from time to time but when the votes happen MLS spending rules consistently remain on the fiscally conservative side of things.

This is a league that still requires teams to fly on domestic arilines in coach class to the majority of their games, until simple stuff like that starts to change I'm not buying for a second that we are on the verge of allowing large-scale spending. Until franchise values start rising to the point where we see the majority of the early owners cashing out I think the league will stay fiscally conservative. I would also add that the league by all accounts it not cash postivite and is still heavily subsidizing itself with expansion fees so staying the course for now may be the wise thing to do. For reference on the crazy cost of entry changes over time check out this graph:

1708720817739.png
 
For the last 10 years or so in the MLS these conversations about spending have been a battle between the older ownership groups that paid small expansion fees and have limited resources and the new ownership groups that are much better resourced and paid massive expansion fees. To me, this article feels less like a sign of imminent things to come and more like an attempt to push the agenda of the spend more camp through selective quotes to the media. We see articles like this from time to time but when the votes happen MLS spending rules consistently remain on the fiscally conservative side of things.

This is a league that still requires teams to fly on domestic arilines in coach class to the majority of their games, until simple stuff like that starts to change I'm not buying for a second that we are on the verge of allowing large-scale spending. Until franchise values start rising to the point where we see the majority of the early owners cashing out I think the league will stay fiscally conservative. I would also add that the league by all accounts it not cash postivite and is still heavily subsidizing itself with expansion fees so staying the course for now may be the wise thing to do. For reference on the crazy cost of entry changes over time check out this graph:

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They actually now all charter for every game. Started during COVID and has since continued. Believe this current CBA mandated it, when that was signed a couple years ago.