Chinese Super League

I think the Chinese are looking at it in a semi-realistic fashion, to be fair. They understand the reasons that they are poor performers in world football; they aren't simply stamping their feet and going "why is this not working?" I think they understand that there is a definite path to follow to make the national team perform better, and that goes something along the lines of:

Raise profile of national league
Get more money into national league due to raised profile
See better continental performances due to the extra money
Create strong national academy system based on the enhanced power and experience of the clubs in the national league
Get better players coming through due to the national academy system
See improved international results when those players get to peak ability

I can't see them throwing the toys out of the pram until they feel the system has had time to work its magic. As said, my major impression of the future of these high-money buys is that they will wait until they believe that the new TV/sponsorship money has given the league enough cash to make it self-sufficient before stepping back from funding things. I don't think they'll base that decision off improved continental performances, and in fact I believe that - if the league succeeds in getting in the big money they clearly believe it can - then they'll slowly withdraw their funding before you start seeing noticeably improved continental results anyway (assuming that a Drogba or Tevez or Oscar don't manage to start single-handedly earning their teams CL titles).

one more obstacle is time difference at least in this part of the world....and in europe is about 6-8 hours depending where you are.....so eyeballs may not be there for them to get a good TV deal.....as for locals i dont know if they are really into it...or they prefer the premier league or other euro leagues.

still have to wait and see
 
one more obstacle is time difference at least in this part of the world....and in europe is about 6-8 hours depending where you are.....so eyeballs may not be there for them to get a good TV deal.....as for locals i dont know if they are really into it...or they prefer the premier league or other euro leagues.

still have to wait and see

Depends how they play it, I guess. They could well do what La Liga does, and play games at truly unsociable hours (La Liga games on Sundays run from 11am kick-offs to 7:45pm in an attempt to fit some matches outside of the hours in which the PL operates). I could picture the CSL deciding that its prime kick-off time on a weekend was, say, 6pm local, which would make for a nice 10am kick-off in the UK, and slightly later in the rest of Europe and in Africa. It would also be eminently watchable by Asian audiences at that time.
 
This whole league will go to zero if Jinping's successor is not a soccer fanatic like he is. Money disappears in an instant.

Also, the Oscar & Tevez money would have been better spent buying tv time in Europe or USA. If the league isn't on tv, it may as well not exist.
 
Thing is, I don't think this is a flash-in-the-pan move from the Chinese government which they are likely to either get bored of or change their minds on later. That's not to say that the business model is going to prove itself sustainable just because the government will always bail teams out, nor that Chinese football isn't heading for a bump in the future, but if it is heading for a bump then the bump I see is the kind where the government starts imposing stricter conditions on the types of deal they are willing to sanction while still honouring the deals they already did.

It's possible that the sport could implode over these contracts or if the bubble bursts by failing to pave the way for the TV and sponsorship revenue that they clearly are hoping will follow (and to an extent already is), but if either of them happen then if anything it will only prove that the government was never as involved as we are claiming anyway.

The fact of the matter is that, of late, China has become very concerned about its image and of being seen as the equal of the West in every category. One of those categories is football, and particularly that the Chinese government feels humiliated about how the world's most populous state and fastest growing economy still seems utterly incapable of making an impact in the world's biggest sport. They've already implemented a number of serious steps to rectify this, including making football a compulsory lesson in all schools and they've got plans to have 70,000 pitches and 20,000 academies/"schools of football" set up in only four years' time. Add on top of this that China is - of course - a Communist government and therefore is far more capable of adhering to long-term strategic planning the likes of which Western-style democracies aren't really capable of, what with their frequent changes in government and the need to base policies and budgets around what will get them elected and keep them popular.

I'm by no means saying that China is destined to overtake the world of football and that we can all look forward to them winning every World Cup from 2030 and the CSL being the world's greatest league. There's still every reason to believe that the CSL will peak at being a "second tier" league, and that these huge contracts will be a short term thing to build publicity. However, I think that making any claims that the Chinese government treats the growth of the CSL as a bit of a fun side-project until they get bored or distracted are a bit near-sighted.
I wouldn't call it a flash-in-the-pan but it does seem to revolve around Xi Jinping and if his successor isn't that interested, it could all come crashing down.

I have to question how effective it will be for them long term. They effectively have 4 DP (a 5th slot for an Asian player that doesn't have to be Chinese) slots a team. The rest are Chinese and the Chinese can't ever qualify for the World Cup in a region where Australia is pretty dominant. That really says it all about the quality of players surrounding these good players. Yes, they have gotten some big name managers but most of their big name stars are still past their prime. We're all impressed because they've landed players we didn't expect they could sign but we're not actually impressed by the players themselves are we?

When all else is equal do you really want to watch a league of Jackson Martinez and 32 year-old Tevez? I say that as an old fan of Tevez, too. It's like David Villa, he's still really good but at that age, and in that league, how can we be like "Stop the presses! Everyone must see this!"

And look how much they've had to shell out just to get these guys. Look how much they were willing to shell out for an aging Ronaldo (who said no), Messi hasn't gone there (despite similar obscene offers, too, I bet) and Zlatan has already said no way. So they're not getting the absolute best even when they're old and tired. I think this is partly because of the language/cultural/ethnic barrier there. That won't be changing either. It's widely known that many players' wives/girlfriends have an extremely negative opinion of China being very lonely and boring for them.

At the end of the day, given China's policies, the backbone of the league will still need to be largely Chinese and quite frankly, they suck at the sport. So as long as that's the case, CSL isn't going to be taking off anytime soon. It's really the same for the United States, too, but I think our owners are a little more aware of that situation.
 
I would also like to see what impact playing a high-motor sport in cities whose pollution makes LA look like Hawaii does to these guys in the medium/long term.
 
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I wouldn't call it a flash-in-the-pan but it does seem to revolve around Xi Jinping and if his successor isn't that interested, it could all come crashing down.

I have to question how effective it will be for them long term. They effectively have 4 DP (a 5th slot for an Asian player that doesn't have to be Chinese) slots a team. The rest are Chinese and the Chinese can't ever qualify for the World Cup in a region where Australia is pretty dominant. That really says it all about the quality of players surrounding these good players. Yes, they have gotten some big name managers but most of their big name stars are still past their prime. We're all impressed because they've landed players we didn't expect they could sign but we're not actually impressed by the players themselves are we?

I agree the surrounding Chinese players these guys will be playing with is a barrier people seem to be ignoring as they are blinded by the big $$$ values. If national team performance is an accurate an indicator of domestic talent there is huge gap in quality of the base level players in the CSL when compared to MLS. If Italy is freezing out Giovinco from the national team because he plays in the MLS, what's going to happen to Oscar? How long till these guys get bored playing with and against players that are multiple levels below them in skill?
 
I agree the surrounding Chinese players these guys will be playing with is a barrier people seem to be ignoring as they are blinded by the big $$$ values. If national team performance is an accurate an indicator of domestic talent there is huge gap in quality of the base level players in the CSL when compared to MLS. If Italy is freezing out Giovinco from the national team because he plays in the MLS, what's going to happen to Oscar? How long till these guys get bored playing with and against players that are multiple levels below them in skill?
How many international slots is each team allowed?

Seems that raising the quality of players 5-18 is a drop ($) in the bucket given how much cash they are splashing at the top players for each team. I'm assuming they are way more flexible than MLS in terms of stocking more internationals on each team than we are allowed.
 
Pretty similar attendance figures to MLS for 2016:

upload_2017-1-3_12-5-4.png


upload_2017-1-3_12-5-53.png


Edit: I wonder if the 135.8% spike in attendance for Hebei China Fortune was solely because of Pellegrini?

Edit Edit: And Gervinho and Lavezzi. Yea I guess that makes sense.
 
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I wouldn't call it a flash-in-the-pan but it does seem to revolve around Xi Jinping and if his successor isn't that interested, it could all come crashing down.

I have to question how effective it will be for them long term. They effectively have 4 DP (a 5th slot for an Asian player that doesn't have to be Chinese) slots a team. The rest are Chinese and the Chinese can't ever qualify for the World Cup in a region where Australia is pretty dominant. That really says it all about the quality of players surrounding these good players. Yes, they have gotten some big name managers but most of their big name stars are still past their prime. We're all impressed because they've landed players we didn't expect they could sign but we're not actually impressed by the players themselves are we?

When all else is equal do you really want to watch a league of Jackson Martinez and 32 year-old Tevez? I say that as an old fan of Tevez, too. It's like David Villa, he's still really good but at that age, and in that league, how can we be like "Stop the presses! Everyone must see this!"

And look how much they've had to shell out just to get these guys. Look how much they were willing to shell out for an aging Ronaldo (who said no), Messi hasn't gone there (despite similar obscene offers, too, I bet) and Zlatan has already said no way. So they're not getting the absolute best even when they're old and tired. I think this is partly because of the language/cultural/ethnic barrier there. That won't be changing either. It's widely known that many players' wives/girlfriends have an extremely negative opinion of China being very lonely and boring for them.

At the end of the day, given China's policies, the backbone of the league will still need to be largely Chinese and quite frankly, they suck at the sport. So as long as that's the case, CSL isn't going to be taking off anytime soon. It's really the same for the United States, too, but I think our owners are a little more aware of that situation.

I understand that nationality and so on will likely colour responses to this, but...putting aside the issue of Chinese government backing, do I have to ask...do you not think that a Chinese fan of the CSL would draw a parallel between your statement and the kinds of things being said about MLS back when Beckham first signed? And yet, I think many would argue that the Beckham rule ended up being an important part of building up the reputation of the league to the point it's at now.

Edit: I wonder if the 135.8% spike in attendance for Hebei China Fortune was solely because of Pellegrini?

I suspect not. Those figures run up to the end of the season in November 2016. Pellegrini only came over in September.
 
So, what will cause the CSL to crumble? Or at least not be able to afford these ridiculous transfers and wages?
 
So, what will cause the CSL to crumble? Or at least not be able to afford these ridiculous transfers and wages?

Global Financial Fair Play :tonguewink:

Edit: I did some quick googling and found an interesting article about this from March. Looks like Zenit (and other clubs I'm sure) started to push FIFA towards implementing global FFP when China started going after Hulk. It makes a lot of sense in today's context, but who knows if they'd ever pull the trigger. If China signs Auba shit will start to get real, really quick.

http://futbolgrad.com/chinese-super-league-zenit-wants-financial-fair-play-reform/
 
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So, what will cause the CSL to crumble? Or at least not be able to afford these ridiculous transfers and wages?
If the Chinese investors spend based on speculation of various future kickbacks from the Chinese government and the Chinese government loses interest in it and goes a different direction, it could easily come crashing down.

They are significantly outspending the Premier League with cheaper ticket prices, far lower attendance, and much smaller tv contracts....let that sink in for a moment.
 
http://www.espnfc.com/soccer-transf...regulate-and-restrain-transfer-fees-and-wages

'"We must take building hundred-year clubs as the goal," the spokesman said. "We will remove the seriously insolvent clubs from the professional league."'

Clearly some CCP types are getting a little concerned about a bubble.
They can want to create academies, but unless kids are forced to enroll, there's no way the climb-to-the-top work ethic parents push will let them divert their attention from technology to sport.