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DC - Postmatch

Discussion in 'Matchday' started by NYCFC_Dan, Sep 8, 2018.

  1. Marito

    Marito Regular Member

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    Maxi missed a 70% xG chance against DCU. So it's perfectly possible, even routine, to miss chances of that kind. A 50% xG chance means you are as likely to miss it as to score. Let's say you have two of those 50% or more xG chances in a game, and one comes from a defensive blooper that leaves your striker 1-on-1 without much effort on his part. And for the rest of the 90 minutes you have absolutely nothing that is quantifiable by xG, not even a super long distance shot that lands high up in the stands. Nada. No offensive production whatsoever. Would you prefer that than to have a team that shows some persistence and produces 10 or 12, 0.10 xG shots? Would you consider that more dominant?

    I haven't seen the combined xG score for our DC game, but based on Doyle's twitter and knowing there were 31 shots, I'm guessing somewhere around 2 to 2.5. And DC's must have been 0.2. So the expected score, for all it's worth, was probably 2-0. We would all be happy now if expectations had been fulfilled.
     
  2. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    I honestly don't see how this addresses the specific points I made at all. OTOH, it includes basic elements of a generic xG explanation that one would direct to someone who was unfamiliar with the concept, rather than someone who is making a very specific criticism of it.

    Was I unclear? I don't think I was unclear.

    ETA: I made 2 arguments:
    1 - The idea that xG perfectly captures expected value and that you can add up separate combinations of xG shots interchangeably, as long as they all add up to the same figure, is at best a useful fiction.
    2- The dichotomy between many low-value shots and fewer but higher value shots is false, and not necessary. If the team truly plays well, it will both create many shots, and a higher percentage than 2% will be high value. In my view, the team is failing to create high percentage shots and knows it, so it is compensating through volume, which I do not consider a sign of strength. It is merely better than doing nothing.
     
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2018
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  3. Seth

    Seth Active Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    *stands up, shakes fist* I shall disagree mgarbowskimgarbowski !

    Well, OK, yeah, it was pretty bad. The problem with the anthem as a piece of music is that it's hard to sing, period, let alone a cappella. Add in a super time delayed stadium echo and that can totally throw someone off. You're already on "by the dawn's early light" when "O say can you see" comes blasting at you through the stadium PA system. It's a nightmare to perform and honestly I don't see how anyone makes it through it.

    Now to be fair to the many other anthem singers, most have done a lot better. It's not that she was off key, it's that she never really picked one. If you spend your life singing to music and are then presented with no music to follow but instead a time delayed echo of the previous line, well, things can get hairy. And for her, they did.

    I'm not really a singer, but you couldn't pay me enough to do the anthem in a stadium. The sheer pressure to get the words right might alone do me in, let alone having to actually do a good job singing it.

    All that being said, I don't think the anthem should precede sporting events. Might be a different discussion though.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2018
  4. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    On this, we agree. She was all over the place.
     
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  5. The Toe

    The Toe Active Member Elite Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    We all thought she was worse than Bernie, and Bernie didn't even have to sing.
     
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  6. SoupInNYC

    SoupInNYC Senior Member Elite Donor

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    I saw that 70% xG chance listed there. But if my memory serves me right, is that referring to the flying scissor kick that Maxi attempted? If so, yeah, that specific spot would have a high xG. But that specific play shouldn't. And I think that is one of the asterisks that is associated with the xG stat.

    Or is that shot referring to another play?
     
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  7. Seven

    Seven Active Member

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    No, that’s the scissor kick play. And yes, that seems like a lower percentage shot to me.

    I was surprised how low the percentage was on the Callens header in the first half, from the Amagat cross. Seemed like a free header in a good spot, Callens just put it wide
     
  8. SoupInNYC

    SoupInNYC Senior Member Elite Donor

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    They also had the Taty first half shot lower than I thought it would be. The one where he went near post and Hamid pushed it over.
     
  9. dummyrun

    dummyrun Regular Member Elite Donor

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    For what it's worth, ASA's xG model liked the Callens and Taty shots more than Opta and the Maxi shot less. Opta does this weird thing where analysts subjectively designate some shots "big chances" and bump their xG, which is why you'll frequently see Baer's maps showing one or two huge circles and a bunch of tiny ones.
     
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  10. canchon

    canchon Active Member Seasoned Supporter

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    Hey look a team can even be worse finishing than NYCFC
     
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  11. mgarbowski

    mgarbowski Senior Member Elite Donor Donor Seasoned Supporter

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    Do they list individual shot data on their site or do you have non-public access?
     
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  12. dummyrun

    dummyrun Regular Member Elite Donor

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    They let me into the secret club, but the website has date filters that'll get you down to the player-by-game level. It's actually pretty amazing what you can do with ASA's public data.
     
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