Expansion Rumors Megathread

[LionNYC]

With the likelihood of the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, this has an impact on at least three expansion proposals.
1. San Diego: Their was a contingent of the media and public, and even another influential investor, in SD that were negative on the MLS proposal because they were holding onto hopes of bringing the NFL back, that hope was based largely on the Raiders moving to San Diego. With that hope shattered, the NFL is not likely to disrupt the MLS stadium proposal.

2. Las Vegas: Obviously, with a new very expensive tax-payer funded stadium, there will be serious interest from investors and public officials to bring MLS along. The league has already done research on the market, as they had a stadium proposal and investment group pretty far along in the process a couple years ago. The mayor was deeply in favor of that proposal, but the stadium required public funding/land grants and ultimately did not have the political support for that. Another investor prior to that also had interest, but was shut out at the time by this other proposal. Of course, rumors surrounding the potential involvement of Beckham are also floating around.

3. Miami: As noted above, David Beckham has ties that could bring his MLS interests to Las Vegas, leaving a vacuum in Miami. Nobody knows the details of Beckham's contract situation, but it has been speculated that he is stuck with Miami if he wants his discount. Perhaps that's not the case, perhaps he doesn't care and is willing to leave Miami and his discount behind for the path of least resistence in LV. Bottom line is that it appears is that he continues to struggle with Miami, and local officials have recently said that they have not heard anything from his group in months. Perhaps he has been stringing along Miami with the expectation of moving along to LV? Who knows.

Basically, San Diego and Las Vegas MLS were obviously boosted by today's news, while Miami's odds were reduced. While I don't think this will ultimately have an impact on any of the cities (SD is getting in anyway, LV will not, and they will eventually get Miami figured out) but when you look at all the factors, the odds were changed today.

No longer a likelihood...

https://twitter.com/x/status/846424119637954562

 

[413Blue]

No longer a likelihood...

https://twitter.com/x/status/846424119637954562

It was my understanding that the NFL was just granting them permission. They still needed official approval for the stadium, and could still theoretically work with Oakland or any other market if LV had any issues. It does look official, but may still not happen? Not sure I got that right or not.

 

[LionNYC]

It was my understanding that the NFL was just granting them permission. They still needed official approval for the stadium, and could still theoretically work with Oakland or any other market if LV had any issues. It does look official, but may still not happen? Not sure I got that right or not.

Very true, similar to Las Vegas voters against an MLS stadium and thus MLS not expansion to Vegas, the NFL will have to deal with a similar prospect.

I just hope they all remember the ordeal of the 2007 NBA All Star Weekend in Las Vegas and how shit that was.

 

[Gotham Gator]

With the likelihood of the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, this has an impact on at least three expansion proposals.
1. San Diego: Their was a contingent of the media and public, and even another influential investor, in SD that were negative on the MLS proposal because they were holding onto hopes of bringing the NFL back, that hope was based largely on the Raiders moving to San Diego. With that hope shattered, the NFL is not likely to disrupt the MLS stadium proposal.

2. Las Vegas: Obviously, with a new very expensive tax-payer funded stadium, there will be serious interest from investors and public officials to bring MLS along. The league has already done research on the market, as they had a stadium proposal and investment group pretty far along in the process a couple years ago. The mayor was deeply in favor of that proposal, but the stadium required public funding/land grants and ultimately did not have the political support for that. Another investor prior to that also had interest, but was shut out at the time by this other proposal. Of course, rumors surrounding the potential involvement of Beckham are also floating around.

3. Miami: As noted above, David Beckham has ties that could bring his MLS interests to Las Vegas, leaving a vacuum in Miami. Nobody knows the details of Beckham's contract situation, but it has been speculated that he is stuck with Miami if he wants his discount. Perhaps that's not the case, perhaps he doesn't care and is willing to leave Miami and his discount behind for the path of least resistence in LV. Bottom line is that it appears is that he continues to struggle with Miami, and local officials have recently said that they have not heard anything from his group in months. Perhaps he has been stringing along Miami with the expectation of moving along to LV? Who knows.

Basically, San Diego and Las Vegas MLS were obviously boosted by today's news, while Miami's odds were reduced. While I don't think this will ultimately have an impact on any of the cities (SD is getting in anyway, LV will not, and they will eventually get Miami figured out) but when you look at all the factors, the odds were changed today.

Good analysis, and if Miami falls away, that helps Tampa's prospects, although I still have doubts that the league will put teams in both cities. Every other league is either/or.

 

[sbrylski]

With the likelihood of the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, this has an impact on at least three expansion proposals.
1. San Diego: Their was a contingent of the media and public, and even another influential investor, in SD that were negative on the MLS proposal because they were holding onto hopes of bringing the NFL back, that hope was based largely on the Raiders moving to San Diego. With that hope shattered, the NFL is not likely to disrupt the MLS stadium proposal.

Which is pretty dumb because the Soccer City guys are leaving room for an NFL stadium on the plot.

I still believe San Diego and St. Louis are the top two options for MLS.

2. Las Vegas: Obviously, with a new very expensive tax-payer funded stadium, there will be serious interest from investors and public officials to bring MLS along. The league has already done research on the market, as they had a stadium proposal and investment group pretty far along in the process a couple years ago. The mayor was deeply in favor of that proposal, but the stadium required public funding/land grants and ultimately did not have the political support for that. Another investor prior to that also had interest, but was shut out at the time by this other proposal. Of course, rumors surrounding the potential involvement of Beckham are also floating around.

I'm not sure Vegas is the best option anymore. It's a larger market than most think, but it's not *that* large, and competing with NFL is never easy. No baseball, but still.

Vegas is about 40% the size of Phoenix. It is about the same size as San Antonio (not counting nearby Austin) and San Antonio only has NBA to compete with. It's close, but I might put San Antonio above Phoenix, and Phoenix above Las Vegas. (Assuming the other two have stadium plans, but I believe they do.)

3. Miami: As noted above, David Beckham has ties that could bring his MLS interests to Las Vegas, leaving a vacuum in Miami. Nobody knows the details of Beckham's contract situation, but it has been speculated that he is stuck with Miami if he wants his discount. Perhaps that's not the case, perhaps he doesn't care and is willing to leave Miami and his discount behind for the path of least resistence in LV. Bottom line is that it appears is that he continues to struggle with Miami, and local officials have recently said that they have not heard anything from his group in months. Perhaps he has been stringing along Miami with the expectation of moving along to LV? Who knows.

"Who knows" sums it up well. But I have a feeling Miami is dead, and so is his discount. If he wants in, he can be a figurehead of another bid, like Donovan is. Sacramento will get his spot, I hope.

 

[Gotham Gator]

It is becoming increasingly clear that the league is only going to add one extra team next year, LAFC.

Minnesota is terrible, and much of that is blamed on the notion that they didn't have enough time to get ready. Well, they were awarded the franchise on March 25, 2015, or just under 2 years before their first game.* Atlanta was awarded a franchise on April 14, 2014, or nearly one year earlier. LAFC, which starts next year, was awarded a franchise on October 30, 2014, or 3 years and 4 months before it will first play.

Well, if Miami were to get its act together and sign a stadium deal today, they would have less than one year to get ready for 2018. Miami have not signed a player, or a coach, or a GM or anything.

* - worth noting that both we and Orlando were awarded franchises less than 2 years before starting as well.

 

[Ulrich]

It is becoming increasingly clear that the league is only going to add one extra team next year, LAFC.

Minnesota is terrible, and much of that is blamed on the notion that they didn't have enough time to get ready. Well, they were awarded the franchise on March 25, 2015, or just under 2 years before their first game.* Atlanta was awarded a franchise on April 14, 2014, or nearly one year earlier. LAFC, which starts next year, was awarded a franchise on October 30, 2014, or 3 years and 4 months before it will first play.

Well, if Miami were to get its act together and sign a stadium deal today, they would have less than one year to get ready for 2018. Miami have not signed a player, or a coach, or a GM or anything.

* - worth noting that both we and Orlando were awarded franchises less than 2 years before starting as well.

You may very well be correct, but just because Minnesota Utd fcked up their transition to MLS doesn't mean another team playing in the USL/NASL would be as short-sighted regarding player acquisition. The quality of players is the only issue they have (perhaps also quality of coach, but that shouldn't be an issue for expansion) because they refused to spend money out of the gate. The most important factor is having a FO structure in place and running successfully. Signing players takes less time, and with the massive gaffe of Minn, the new GM would have a blueprint of what not to do (don't keep purse strings tied).

If anything, the shorter timeframe would help a USL/NASL leapfrog a from-scratch club for the second spot.

 

[sbrylski]

You may very well be correct, but just because Minnesota Utd fcked up their transition to MLS doesn't mean another team playing in the USL/NASL would be as short-sighted regarding player acquisition. The quality of players is the only issue they have (perhaps also quality of coach, but that shouldn't be an issue for expansion) because they refused to spend money out of the gate. The most important factor is having a FO structure in place and running successfully. Signing players takes less time, and with the massive gaffe of Minn, the new GM would have a blueprint of what not to do (don't keep purse strings tied).

If anything, the shorter timeframe would help a USL/NASL leapfrog a from-scratch club for the second spot.

Just because everyone is beating up on MNU, I'll be a contrarian and say that there is no team in a better position to get better quicker than MNU. They should be relatively loaded with allocation money they haven't spent yet, plus they have all 3 DP spots. Two TAM CBs and a DP midfielder and a DP striker, and they're a team. Wayyy easier said than done, but doable.

 

[Ulrich]

Just because everyone is beating up on MNU, I'll be a contrarian and say that there is no team in a better position to get better quicker than MNU. They should be relatively loaded with allocation money they haven't spent yet, plus they have all 3 DP spots. Two TAM CBs and a DP midfielder and a DP striker, and they're a team. Wayyy easier said than done, but doable.

Still doesn't change the fact they fcked up their transition.

As we experienced, it's a lot harder to identify/sign a quality TAM CB then it is to write about it.

 

[mgarbowski]

MNU signed a lot of international players, many from northern Europe, and only kept a handful of their NASL players. Apart from the DPs (and hopefully the cap space necessary to fit their base salary) they might not have a lot of money left, including their TAM and GAM grants. I think it is more of a case that they spent poorly rather than did not spend (again, except for the DP dollars).

 

[Gotham Gator]

You may very well be correct, but just because Minnesota Utd fcked up their transition to MLS doesn't mean another team playing in the USL/NASL would be as short-sighted regarding player acquisition. The quality of players is the only issue they have (perhaps also quality of coach, but that shouldn't be an issue for expansion) because they refused to spend money out of the gate. The most important factor is having a FO structure in place and running successfully. Signing players takes less time, and with the massive gaffe of Minn, the new GM would have a blueprint of what not to do (don't keep purse strings tied).

If anything, the shorter timeframe would help a USL/NASL leapfrog a from-scratch club for the second spot.

I agree that Minnesota should have done better, but I don't see how any team can go from zero to full MLS in 11 months or less.

 

[Ulrich]

I agree that Minnesota should have done better, but I don't see how any team can go from zero to full MLS in 11 months or less.

A start from scratch team probably could not. A successful Tapped-up team from a lower league possibly could: They have an infrastructure already in place from FO, to fan base, to contracted training facilities.

 

[LionNYC]

TODAY is the day that decides the fate of #MLS2STL

http://www.foxsports.com/soccer/story/mls-expansion-st-louis-soccer-stadium-vote-040417

 

[sbrylski]

TODAY is the day that decides the fate of #MLS2STL

http://www.foxsports.com/soccer/story/mls-expansion-st-louis-soccer-stadium-vote-040417

When will we know? Tomorrow morning?

Also in the news, San Diego's proposal will go to a citizen vote in November, and MLS has said it will wait on the vote before it makes a decision. (I'd link, but can't access Twitter at work.) If nothing else, this definitely indicates that MLS sees San Diego as a front-runner and won't make a decision without them. Based on the San Diego data, I also think there will be a lot of "yes" votes down there from both soccer fans and SDSU fans that want a new football stadium.

 

[LionNYC]

When will we know? Tomorrow morning?

Also in the news, San Diego's proposal will go to a citizen vote in November, and MLS has said it will wait on the vote before it makes a decision. (I'd link, but can't access Twitter at work.) If nothing else, this definitely indicates that MLS sees San Diego as a front-runner and won't make a decision without them. Based on the San Diego data, I also think there will be a lot of "yes" votes down there from both soccer fans and SDSU fans that want a new football stadium.

Remember it's one hour earlier there...

https://twitter.com/x/status/849359409990029312

 

[LionNYC]

Search for Proposition 1. Proposition 2 is just below it. Absentee ballots are in which are less than 1% of the vote. Yes for 1. No for 2. It's going to be a long night for St. Louis and MLS.

http://graphics.stltoday.com/apps/elections/

 

[Dnigly13]

down 48-51 with 54% of the vote in... why cant all owners be like the dolphins... cant get a stadium pay for it yourself

 

[LionNYC]

Well, #MLS2STL is dead...

https://twitter.com/x/status/849463110805180421

 

[ferrarinycfc]

I think MLS should take stock of where its at and award expansion slots to teams that have their ducks lined up, rather than hoping something might get done in cities that they prefer.

 

[Ulrich]

I think MLS should take stock of where its at and award expansion slots to teams that have their ducks lined up, rather than hoping something might get done in cities that they prefer.

I think that for the most part, MLS has stipulated an ownership group must have a plan/ducks lined up before being considered. St. Louis is a special case as it's a massive soccer hotbed in an area underserved by MLS, so if there was a chance to have the pieces fall into place to make it happen, they were willing to work with the city. Kind of a chicken/egg situation. City would not consider the zoning/financing without being assured it wasn't going for naught, and MLS would award without knowing the city was backing the bid.

San Diego is a bit similar. Another massive sports and soccer hotbed underserved. It'd be a mini-coup for MLS to be the flagship sport (not counting the Padres because baseball is closer to golf than an action sport) in that city.