And then they called in a "significant setback" in their statement, lol. It would be nice if it was a clear cut yes/no, but I imagine they'll spend a few weeks considering options and figuring out how to save face if they went forward anyway.
Expansion Rumors Megathread
- Thread starter MagnusPax
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And then they called in a "significant setback" in their statement, lol. It would be nice if it was a clear cut yes/no, but I imagine they'll spend a few weeks considering options and figuring out how to save face if they went forward anyway.
So, about that "competition" for MLS spots:
I'm sure this saga has another few twist and turns in it yet thought.
- Miami? Probably dead, probably has been for months/years.
- St. Louis? Cooked.
- Charlotte? Politically stuck in mud.
- Raleigh? No plans public.
- Cincinnati? No plans public.
- Nashville? No plans public, but they have some political support
- Indianapolis? Lol.
- San Diego. Clear front-runner, but now relying on a public vote in November. In other words, they're no longer in control.
- San Antonio. The silent-but-deadly bid.
- St. Petersburg. Public vote incoming. Any more hurdles?
- Sacramento. They were shadowed by the potential of other bids, but are starting to look pretty good again.
- Detroit. Dark horse behemoth. Met resistance, but may have the power, money, and will to break thru.
- Phoenix. Relatively quiet, but they seem to have a pretty solid stadium plan.
I'm sure this saga has another few twist and turns in it yet thought.
I would bet Tampa is in the #2 spot. They have everything clicking, and the waterfront where the stadium is located, in StPetersburg, is having major redevelopment. My father-in-law who lives near the area mentioned there's rumors of the Devil Rays leaving (StPet), so the soccer team would be the sole sport in that area with the Bucs in downtown Tampa.
It's one thing to give a discount, which is money not collected, and it's totally different to fork money over. MLS owners are not propping up a bid when there are other cities lined up.
I only hesitate because MLS may want to delay a decision on Florida. The Rowdies aren't going away anytime soon. And if Detroit also has all their pieces in place, it's at least 50/50. No other Midwest team appears ready (unless Cincy publishes their stadium plan soon), and another Midwest team seemed like a priority.
I was thinking in terms of a discounted expansion fee to the St. Louis group. Instead of collecting $175 million in expansion fees from Miami and St. Louis as #24 and #25, they would collect $240 million from Sacramento and St. Louis (instead of the full $300 million). So it's a discount to St. Louis, but it's actually a net positive when factoring in the cancellation of Beckham's discount.
Probably a bad precedent though, but if MLS's expansion fee pricing is too high, it's legit to lower it.
That's a horrible precedent to start. Every team not given it will want to know "why?"
That would be so kind of Beckham to just forfeit his contractual benefit so MLS could discount others! I'm sure he is on the phone right now.
Also, MLS is going to go for maximum fee's from each city, so what/if Beckham ever pays is irrelevant.
The Tampa MLS bid is the Rowdies
St. Louis' bid could have gone through if they had just made concessions to the County which was willing to fork over the cash. I don't understand why but they went through the City instead. Also had the vote the same night as their Mayoral election I believe which is the night of greatest local turnout. Probably poorly planned all around
St. Louis' bid could have gone through if they had just made concessions to the County which was willing to fork over the cash. I don't understand why but they went through the City instead. Also had the vote the same night as their Mayoral election I believe which is the night of greatest local turnout. Probably poorly planned all around
Beckham has a deadline. His discount will expire. No voluntary forfeiture required.
If MLS thinks $90 million from St. Louis is more valuable than $150 million from, say, San Antonio, then they would/should consider the discount.
That said, I don't actually think it would happen. It would show a weak position when negotiating against other owners for expansion fees or governments for public funds. I'm just running through all the options here.
My weekly prediction update in this thread due to boredom:
24. San Diego
25. Sacramento
26. Detroit/Tampa Bay
-
27. Tampa Bay/Detroit
28. Phoenix/San Antonio
-
29. San Antonio/Phoenix
30. Cincinnati/Nashville/Charlotte/Raleigh/Indianapolis/St. Louis
If Miami and St. Louis are truly out, I think it'll go something like the above. Sacramento or Tampa Bay could join in 2019, or all three of the first tier in 2020. For 2022, the second tier join. And then they add two more considering there will be some very good successful bids remaining. I don't love most of the Midwestern or Southern bids, but one will join up (probably Cincy).
Dare I say Columbus becomes a potential relocation candidate at some point?
i mean there is a precedent but columbus has their stadium ( and i think potentially having new one/expanding or maybe was just reddit rumor) so who knows...take it away or replace it with Cincinnati?
The hypothetical is Cincinnati and Detroit get in, while a few other cities with good ownership groups were shut out. Columbus doesn't have great attendance and are squeezed regionally. Let's say they aren't able to secure a new stadium in the next 10 years, which would mean they're in the oldest SSS in the league. Prime purchase candidate for the group that just missed out on MLS inclusion. Not saying it will/would/should happen, just idle speculation.
I'm not going to look it up because i'm lazy and "working", but I know as of at least last year the Crew only had 5 or so years left on it's lease for the stadium grounds. They were considering all types of options, from extending the lease, building a new stadium next door, or a new stadium elsewhere in the market. That stadium was built about as cheap as it could get and ditching it after 20 years would not be unusual. Would they leave the market? Who knows, but it would be ironically cool to see the Crew be the first MLS team to use another city to hold it's current city hostage for free stadium money! During the early days I never thought an MLS club would have that leverage.
But there are lots of cities vying for spots in the MLS with not enough openings down the road. I definitely think 5 years down the road as 4 413Blue points out, that there would be other cities desperate to bring MLS in.
And I bet MLS probably wouldn't mind as much. Relocate the Crew to another city without much of a current structure in place as far as teams go, and that may open the door more for Cincinnati to come in, without oversaturating the Ohio market (and adding a larger market in the area than Columbus).
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