How YOU Doin’? | NYCFC 2022 Season Discussion

[Shwafta]

Two completely unrelated items:

NYCFC has a better record in the secondary kit than the primary right now.

Despite it all, NYCFC can clinch the playoffs this weekend. NYCFC has clinched with respect to Toronto and DC. A win over Red Bulls and/or a loss by Atlanta, Charlotte and Chicago handles those teams. Miami and the Revs each require a result on their end in addition to a NYCFC win: for Miami a loss and the Revs a draw or loss.

Miami won so this is out of the equation now.

It's coming real close for playoffs... If orlando win out they're ahead of us. (We play them at "home" on decision day, so technically that's in our hands). If Cinci and Columbus win their games in hand, they're two and one point behind us. Miami could be 4 behind.

I don't think we see miami end on 46, they need 7 points from 4 games, so I think we're safe.
Home playoff game is very much not.

 

[mgarbowski]

Miami won so this is out of the equation now.

Miami is still in play for us to clinch this week if we win the Derby and they lose to DC. Chicago cannot overtake us after losing so we need to stay ahead of 4 more teams to clinch a spot.
You're right about a home game. If we win out we get it, and because of the H2H Orlando can say the same. Drop any points and it gets a lot harder.
The only thing is the game against Orlando is Game 33, not Decision Day.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Decision Day is at Atlanta, which considering the chaos there and the fact they will likely be eliminated, odds are they'll already be on vacation. If we need a result out of that game, we should really be able to get it.

 

[mgarbowski]

Columbus took a 1-0 lead in the first half until seconds left in second-half added time when Portland scored after a long scramble when Columbus could not clear.
Sound familiar?
The 2 dropped points puts us closer to finishing ahead of the Crew.
Magic Numbers (combination of points won by NYCFC and/or dropped by the other team)"
Miami 3 (all other bottom table teams are done)
Columbus 3 (3 Games Remaining)
Cincinnati 6 (3GR)
Orlando 6 (3GR)
RB 8
From the POV of Magic Numbers, when the other team has extra games remaining it is good for NYCFC being additional opportunities to drop points.

I could do the West too, but it seems presumptuous.

 

[JCMore]

So if I read this correctly, if DC wins today, we are guaranteed in the post season

 

[mgarbowski]

So if I read this correctly, if DC wins today, we are guaranteed in the post season

yes

 

[LionNYC]

4 points in our final 2 games and we can secure 3rd place (and potentially playing Philadelphia again in the Conference Finals)

 

[mgarbowski]

So much attention on NYCFC getting third place to avoid Philly until the final, but Montreal could finish first, and even if not they are playing very well. 10-1-3 last 14 games.
I’d still probably give us better odds over them than against Philly, if only because of Blake, but be careful what you wish for.
Also, if we are going to enjoy the maximum fun of destroying Philly’s wonder season, the sooner the better IMO.

 

[moogoo]

So much attention on NYCFC getting third place to avoid Philly until the final, but Montreal could finish first, and even if not they are playing very well. 10-1-3 last 14 games.
I’d still probably give us better odds over them than against Philly, if only because of Blake, but be careful not hat you wish for.
Also, if we are going to enjoy the maximum fun of destroying Philly’s wonder season, the sooner the better IMO.

I've been of the mindset of bring on philly!

I don't care who we play though. I'm satisfied with this season and MLS cup would be super bonus. Crushing Philly would be second super bonus. Hah

 

[mgarbowski]

I've been of the mindset of bring on philly!

I don't care who we play though. I'm satisfied with this season and MLS cup would be super bonus. Crushing Philly would be second super bonus. Hah

Same. Campeones and derby wins washed away the stink of the slump. Playoffs are a dice roll anyway.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Who saw this Montreal team coming before the season started? Who can explain how they are keeping it going?

Can anyone even name more than 3 players on their team? Can anyone remember the last time they were on ESPN or Fox?

Montreal are on 62 points and 2 behind Philly. The Union have a goal differential of +42; the Snowflakes are +11. The Clubbed Feet have only 4 multi-goal wins, and Philly have 12.

 

[Shwafta]

Who saw this Montreal team coming before the season started? Who can explain how they are keeping it going?

Can anyone even name more than 3 players on their team? Can anyone remember the last time they were on ESPN or Fox?

Montreal are on 62 points and 2 behind Philly. The Union have a goal differential of +42; the Snowflakes are +11. The Clubbed Feet have only 4 multi-goal wins, and Philly have 12.

I remember towards teh end of last season people were talking about the tremendous job their coach was doing... and then they still flew under the radar. Great for them, to be honest!

 

[moogoo]

Who saw this Montreal team coming before the season started? Who can explain how they are keeping it going?

Can anyone even name more than 3 players on their team? Can anyone remember the last time they were on ESPN or Fox?

Montreal are on 62 points and 2 behind Philly. The Union have a goal differential of +42; the Snowflakes are +11. The Clubbed Feet have only 4 multi-goal wins, and Philly have 12.

They have been good since the start of the season with a few slumps here and there, but nothing major.

Their squad is solid front to back with veteran experience in the midfield and youth in the attack.

I don't think they've had many injury woes, which helps a lot with consistent lineups and team chemistry. just look at our guys. we get players back and we're a totally different team.

nancy (the coach) has done a great job too.

 

[Kjbert]

What do folks think about our form heading into the playoffs versus other Eastern Conference foes?

 

[moogoo]

What do folks think about our form heading into the playoffs versus other Eastern Conference foes?

think you have to be a little crazy to not feel at least a little confident. we got all our guys back and have 3 wins in a row. even if we lose in atlanta, i think the locker room/team will be feeling pretty good going into the playoffs.

i don't know if we make a deep run. i don't know if we win MLS cup again. but i do think there is a decent chance of both.

only other eastern conf teams riding high right now is montreal and maybe miami? everyone else has hit a bit of a slump. philly fell apart vs charlotte so it's too soon to say they lost their mojo... but if they lose their decision day game, maybe they aren't feeling so hot in the playoffs? of course they are a different team when they play at home.

 

[Shwafta]

What do folks think about our form heading into the playoffs versus other Eastern Conference foes?

I think Montreal and Philly are looking the best. Montreal is 4/5 wins and 1 draw. After that I think all the teams are beatable.

...Though they're definitely thinking the same about us.

 

[LionNYC]

I think Montreal and Philly are looking the best. Montreal is 4/5 wins and 1 draw. After that I think all the teams are beatable.

...Though they're definitely thinking the same about us.

Miami and Charlotte are both on 3 game winning streaks. You have to consider the quality of the opponent. But whoever we play as the 3/4 seed, it won't be a cakewalk of a game.

 

[mgarbowski]

With one game left, NYCFC has managed to avoid something it has never avoided. For the first time in 8 seasons, NYCFC will not have a DP player/slot that misses 10 or more games. If for some reason all three of Magno, Martins and Moralez do not play today, they will have missed 1, 9, and 6 games respectively.
If Magno does appear today, he will have played in every game, which no NYCFC DP has ever done. Villa played 33 in 2016, and Medina did so in 2021.
The team record for total DP minutes played, is, however, out of reach. The 2016 combo of Villa, Pirlo and Lampard played 6,919 minutes even though Lampard missed 15 games. Villa and Pirlo missed 3 games between them. If Maxi, Talles and Thiago each play 90 minutes today they will have played 6,909 minutes.

 

[canchon]

NYCFC finished fifth overall in the league this year even though they basically punted one third of the season (the stretch where they had one win in 10 games). Food for thought.

 

[mgarbowski]

NYCFC finished fifth overall in the league this year even though they basically punted one third of the season (the stretch where they had one win in 10 games). Food for thought.

In the other 24 games NYCFC had a PPG of 2.08 and a Goal Differential of +24.

Overall it was a pretty streaky season. There never was a medium-sized stretch where they played near their average level of 1.62 PPG and you can't divide it into clear substreaks.

First 5 games PPG 0.80 GD -1
Next 8 games PPG 2.75 GD +8
Next 4 games PPG 0.75 GD -1
Next 4 games PPG 3.00 GD +6
Next 10 games PPG 0.50 GD -8
Final 3 games PPG 3.00 GD +4

Of course I'm cherry picking with these game splits. If you take the first 10 Cushing games it comes to 1.60 PPG which is just about season average. But it so clearly breaks down into 4 winless, 4 wins and then 2 winless. It's not really a 10-game stretch where the good and bad results were evenly mixed.

And the streaks almost perfectly coincide with external events that line up with the results:

Begin season and CCL play
First 5 games PPG 0.80 GD -1
Last CCL game played between these segments
Next 8 games PPG 2.75 GD +8
Ronny Quits, Cushing In
Next 4 games GD 0.75 GD -1
Next 4 games PPG 3.00 GD +6
Ending of previous segment coincided with Taty's last game. Also....
In the next segment Callens, Morales, Martins and Tinnerholm combine to appear in only 20/40 games and average 38 minutes per game
Next 10 games PPG 0.50 GD -8
In the last segment Callens, Morales, Martins and Tinnerholm combine to appear in 9/12 games and average 54 minutes per game. These are also the first games in which Callens and Martins both start and were not forced to leave the game early for injury or red card since July.
Final 3 games PPG 3.00 GD +4

Basically every switch in results, except for one, aligns with a clear plausible cause.