Nycfc And Eastern Conference Strength Of Schedule Remaining

[cardinal511]

Building on the excellent work done by mgarbowski here: http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?threads/by-the-numbers-what-weve-done-what-must-we-do.3427/ I thought looking at the strength of schedule for Eastern Conference teams might be useful for us.

For this venture I used PPG earned so far to determine the strength of all remaining schedules (more PPG= a harder schedule). To do this, I added up the PPG of all opponents and divided by the number of games remaining. I also show opponents PPG by home and away matches, as that has an impact on a schedule's strength. I know this method might have shortcomings (Seattle's form will improve once players return, the Galaxy will likely be very good to end the year) but we can discuss those below, right? Anyway, here's what I got:

DC United: Total: 12 games (1.23 PPG remaining) Home: 6 games (1.17) Away: 6 games (1.28)
Columbus: Total: 13 games (1.41) Home: 6 games ( 1.54) Away: 7 games (1.30)
NJ Red Bulls: 15 games (1.23) Home: 8 games (1.25) Away: 7 games (1.21)
Toronto: 16 games (1.30) Home: 10 games (1.29) Away: 6 games (1.33)
New England: 12 games (1.21) Home: 6 games (1.29) Away: 6 games (1.12)
Orlando City: 14 games (1.28) Home: 6 games (1.26) Away: 8 games (1.29)
Philadelphia: 13 games (1.32) Home: 6 games (1.27) Away: 7 games (1.37)
Montreal: 17 games (1.32) Home: 9 games (1.32) Away: 8 games (1.32)
NYCFC: 14 games (1.44) Home 7 games (1.36) Away 7 games (1.53)
Chicago: 15 games (1.37) Home: 7 games (1.38) Away: 8 games (1.36)

As the standings sit currently, there is a noticable difference between the
Top 4: DC United (1.59 PPG), New Jersey Red Bulls (1.53), Toronto (1.5), and Columbus (1.43)
Second Tier: Montreal (1.24), New England (1.23), Orlando City (1.2), NYCFC (1.05)
Bottom Tier: Philadelphia (1.05), Chicago (0.95)

TOP 4: DC has the second easiest remaining schedule, especially home, and leads the PPG, though Toronto has significantly more games, including 10 more at home. Based on season form and strength of schedule, they should compete for the top of the East. New Jersey could also win the East (second easiest schedule, too) though their home schedule isn't as favorable as DC's. Columbus has the second most difficult schedule, plus by far the hardest home schedule, and with the lowest PPG of the group, they are in the most danger of falling behind this group.

Second Tier: First, yes we have the hardest schedule remaining. Our away schedule is particularly brutal, the toughest in the East by a wide margin. We also have the most talent of the group coming in, though. Will we be able to jump anyone? Remember, we'll need to jump two in this tier to earn a playoff spot. Well, the most likely candidate is probably Montreal. They have the second toughest schedule remaining amongst this tier and have by far the most games. We should hope that playing more games than us will lead to worse performances for them. The next candidate is Orlando. They have two more away games than home matches remaining and have a more difficult schedule than New England. Finally, New England looks like the toughest to catch based on season form plus strength of schedule remaining. They have results in the books, plus the easiest remaining schedule in the East. One plus for us is that we have 4 of our 14 games remaining with opponents in this tier. We absolutely can do something to improve our chances.

Bottom Tier: Philadelphia is even on PPG with us, but their schedule is decently tough and they're not bringing in the talent we are in the summer window. With a fairly difficult remaining away schedule, I don't see them making up the distance to those in the next tier, though if our talent doesn't gell, they could finish above us. Chicago has the third most difficult schedule remaining and already sit last in both PPG and total points in the league. Based on season form and strength of schedule remaining, they are the smart pick to finish last in the East and all of MLS.

 

[Seth]

Would it be possible to weight the points per game based on the opponent's ppg?

For example, let's say you have Team A and Team B, and that they're both exactly the same quality. If Team A plays stronger opponents they'd have a higher ppg than Team B who's played weaker opponents. So what I'm asking is if it's possible to give more weight to points earned against opponents who have higher ppg.

In other words, 3 points earned against Seattle ought to be worth more than 3 points earned against Chicago. And this could also present possibly a more realistic picture of what our results would mean against the better teams we're about to play.

 

[mgarbowski]

This is awesome. We're building a little data analysis division.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Would it be possible to weight the points per game based on the opponent's ppg?

For example, let's say you have Team A and Team B, and that they're both exactly the same quality. If Team A plays stronger opponents they'd have a higher ppg than Team B who's played weaker opponents. So what I'm asking is if it's possible to give more weight to points earned against opponents who have higher ppg.

In other words, 3 points earned against Seattle ought to be worth more than 3 points earned against Chicago. And this could also present possibly a more realistic picture of what our results would mean against the better teams we're about to play.

Our results have been shitty against a very easy schedule in the first part of the year. If we go by that, we will suck. No way to quantify how much of an impact our new players will have.

 

[leilanikali420]

Our results have been shitty against a very easy schedule in the first part of the year. If we go by that, we will suck. No way to quantify how much of an impact our new players will have.

Tom's statistics incorporate "new math".

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

Tom's statistics incorporate "new math".

if s = the quality of teams we have played So far
let h = the Horrible results against those teams

then it follows that c = the strength of remaining schedule
and k= the expected results against those teams

we get the equation s+h=c+k

we need to divide the first part of the equation by a constant to factor in the quality of players we fielded in the first half (WE)

and also inversely divide the result by the unknowns that we will have the second half iraola and angelino (call it I) and the top talents Lamps and Pirlo (use T)

Multiply that divisor by a randomization number (SU) to account for the chaotic nature of soccer and you are left with:

s+h         I T
----- =  ----------
WE      SU(c+k)

 

[mgarbowski]

So what I'm asking is if it's possible to give more weight to points earned against opponents who have higher ppg.

You could multiply actual points earned by the PPG of the opposition, but I'm not sure what that tells you. We've had embarrassing results against terrible teams (Chicago) and modest success against modestly successful teams like Toronto. I think the most important games in the future are those against the teams we need to climb over in the standings (most likely Orlando, Montreal, New England, Columbus), because not only does a win gain us points, it of course keeps points away from them. That lowers the eventual 6th place playoff line that Sabo and I were debating earlier in the week.

 

[Seth]

Just for fun, here's a slightly different way of looking at the table:

Up to date as of 7/22/2015.

 

[Gavin23]

if s = the quality of teams we have played So far
let h = the Horrible results against those teams

then it follows that c = the strength of remaining schedule
and k= the expected results against those teams

we get the equation s+h=c+k

we need to divide the first part of the equation by a constant to factor in the quality of players we fielded in the first half (WE)

and also inversely divide the result by the unknowns that we will have the second half iraola and angelino (call it I) and the top talents Lamps and Pirlo (use T)

Multiply that divisor by a randomization number (SU) to account for the chaotic nature of soccer and you are left with:

s+h         I T
----- =  ----------
WE      SU(c+k)

This is genius

 

[Tiger Jones]

How are we not in the bottom tier?

 

[cardinal511]

How are we not in the bottom tier?

Ultimately I divided it into teams that should be in the playoffs unless something goes wrong (Top Tier), teams that should compete for the playoffs (Second Tier), and teams I believe won't compete (Bottom Tier). I think with the influx of talent we're bringing in for the stretch run, many here believe our results will improve. I also think most here believe that we should be competing for the playoffs with the talent we have now, despite the poor start.

You're absolutely right, based on PPG we're in the bottom tier. I'm taking the optimistic stance that we'll be better and might compete for the playoffs. If the team doesn't gell, has key injuries, or the tactics don't work there's a good chance with our schedule left we'll finish in the bottom tier.

 

[cardinal511]

Just for fun, I'll guess the standings will end up:
1. Toronto
2. DC United
3. NJ Red Bulls
4. Columbus Crew
5. New England Revolution
6. Orlando City
7. NYCFC
8. Montreal
9. Philadelphia
10. Chicago

I think the schedule will be too much for us at the end. If we played Orlando and Montreal later on, I'd be more optimistic.

 

[Sabo]

Mike has got it exactly right. There is so little separating 5th through 9th that we would be in 5th today if we beat Ne last weekend. 4 or 6 points the next two weeks will be huge because they are against our playoff rivals. Thats the key to our season. A win is a 6 point swing in the standings with mtl orl phi or chi.

 

[Tiger Jones]

Just for fun, I'll guess the standings will end up:
1. Toronto
2. DC United
3. NJ Red Bulls
4. Columbus Crew
5. New England Revolution
6. Orlando City
7. NYCFC
8. Montreal
9. Philadelphia
10. Chicago

I think the schedule will be too much for us at the end. If we played Orlando and Montreal later on, I'd be more optimistic.

Not sure about the order of the top four (it'll be tight) but I think the rest is accurate; we will miss the playoffs. I would venture to guess that Montreal will finish above us though and, more than likely, will make the playoffs. I would probably move the Revs in 7 or 8 with Montreal and Orlando finishing either 5 or 6.

 

[Andres Emilio Soto]

if s = the quality of teams we have played So far
let h = the Horrible results against those teams

then it follows that c = the strength of remaining schedule
and k= the expected results against those teams

we get the equation s+h=c+k

we need to divide the first part of the equation by a constant to factor in the quality of players we fielded in the first half (WE)

and also inversely divide the result by the unknowns that we will have the second half iraola and angelino (call it I) and the top talents Lamps and Pirlo (use T)

Multiply that divisor by a randomization number (SU) to account for the chaotic nature of soccer and you are left with:

s+h         I T
----- =  ----------
WE      SU(c+k)

F-ing hilarious!

 

[Seth]

Just for fun, here's a slightly different way of looking at the table:

Here's this week's table:

Slightly slimmed down, and hopefully a little less "horsey."

 

[JGarrettLieb]

The essential takeaway I've been getting is that we basically can afford to drop one or two games until the end of the season to be sure we are going to be in. Correct?

 

[Tiger Jones]

The essential takeaway I've been getting is that we basically can afford to drop one or two games until the end of the season to be sure we are going to be in. Correct?

Nothing is sure. We are on the bubble and need to continue to win games. Period. Too much ground to make up for any other outcome.

 

[NYCFC_Dan]

Going to close this one up as its last years and move your post into another thread.

Bump. I think we now have a VERY easy schedule remaining outside of Dallas