Sorry I touched a nerve, I respect your work here. That said, i can read your thread title and the responses you liked, which tells me what kind of response you were looking for.
We Have Been Much, Much Worse When Angelino Plays
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
A really interesting and eye opening post, but I'm going to keep repeating the quoted part to myself until I feel better. Hopefully (assuming we get him back) a full offseason lets him mesh with the team and have a positive impact in 2016.
Good point re Iraola. I had not jumped off his bandwagon prior to the injury, but the backline has played considerably better in the last two games.
Angelino is NOT a defender. He's a winger. The stats you posted are indeed interesting but I would think that those numbers reflect him being played out of position.
edit: I know he's played as a defender and listed as a defender but he is NOT a defender for MLS. In academy, his weight is likely beefy. In MLS, he's a training dummy. Get him forward. He's a winger.
edit: I know he's played as a defender and listed as a defender but he is NOT a defender for MLS. In academy, his weight is likely beefy. In MLS, he's a training dummy. Get him forward. He's a winger.
yes was going to post similar thing. Kid is playing first division ball for the first time ever, kid is 18, experience will come for him as he still doesnt fully know how to track back when needed and over commits to attack, but again this is due to his low first team experience. and others mentioned he is a winger playing a LB/ LWB position. We only saw him play left wing ( or at least attempt it ) against Dallas.
Fair enough; but if I only liked responses knocking the kid that was a mistake. I own it but it was not my intent. I was looking to generate theories.
One other thing I'll note: half-season loans are very short and unforgiving. Amgelino showed up and played in the first game possible, got 7 starts, and now it seems like Kreis is diminishing his role (unless he starts the last 4 - who knows with Kreis). If the loan is not extended I'm not sure this helped anyone. I'm sure he'll bounce back but this can't be how he wanted it to go either.
Have you applied the same criteria to other players, to see what his averages are against the other players? not the team as a whole?
Hey Mgarbowski, I don't want to be an ass but your analysis really does not have statistical merit at this juncture.
The sample population is simply too small. Your primary analysis rests on his games played since he joined us mid way through the season, which with a 34 game regular season is roughly 17 games in. This is an estimate because I can't remember exactly when he came and its really not that important.
We have played a total of 30 games minus 17 played before Angelino gets you 13 games Angelino has been available for. This is vastly too small of a sample population. Any real statistical analysis done on a population of 13 is basically measuring randomness.
The gold standard is generally a sample size of 100. But you can work with less than that if you need to in a pinch but you loose power as you shrink the population size.
The very EARLIEST I would actually bother doing this for Angelino is at the end of next year with the addition of another 34 game sample.
We are not even going to bother with the fact that there are so many variables, 25 if everyone on the team gets a start, that my head hurts thinking about it.
That said, good work on putting this together, and some of stats aren't bad to have for discussion purposes; as long as everyone remembers that they really don't have any power yet. On a side note, I'm seriously curious how that goals against metric starts shaking itself out.
The sample population is simply too small. Your primary analysis rests on his games played since he joined us mid way through the season, which with a 34 game regular season is roughly 17 games in. This is an estimate because I can't remember exactly when he came and its really not that important.
We have played a total of 30 games minus 17 played before Angelino gets you 13 games Angelino has been available for. This is vastly too small of a sample population. Any real statistical analysis done on a population of 13 is basically measuring randomness.
The gold standard is generally a sample size of 100. But you can work with less than that if you need to in a pinch but you loose power as you shrink the population size.
The very EARLIEST I would actually bother doing this for Angelino is at the end of next year with the addition of another 34 game sample.
We are not even going to bother with the fact that there are so many variables, 25 if everyone on the team gets a start, that my head hurts thinking about it.
That said, good work on putting this together, and some of stats aren't bad to have for discussion purposes; as long as everyone remembers that they really don't have any power yet. On a side note, I'm seriously curious how that goals against metric starts shaking itself out.
No. His effect kind of jumped out to me just from following the team, and it was easy to see (and to acquire the numbers) because he didn't play at all for half the season, had one game as a sub, started 7 in a row, then subbed again for 2. You would get similar results for Iraola or Mena because they arrived and stopped playing regularly at roughly the same times. Doing something like this for Mix or Jacobson or anybody else would be more work than I'm willing to put in. I expect there would be 1 or 2 other surprises, but mostly things would go as expected.
And I think I was drawn to it because it was so counterintuitive. Angelino is clearly more talented than much of the team, including the guys he is swapped in or out with. You expect the team to get better when he plays. That it hasn't is therefore interesting.
All fair points. As I said in response to another post, I think this is far too small for any predictive purposes. And I specifically disavow any causation. It's just correlation. OTOH, as of right now he's not coming back next year. This might be all we have, plus whatever he plays in the last 4 games. The question of whether this half season loan helped the team is valid and the answer, right now, is no, and next season won't help answer that. I still hope the loan is extended to change things and make this a better experience both for him and for NYC. But if not this makes me very wary of future half-season loanees.
Valid question! I really like Angelino. I can see him being a great footballer one day, but what roll is he playing for us now?
Yes! But is he the winger we need? Could we do better with that international spot?
Well, that does kind of get to the heart of things. He's been playing as a winger, and that's his natural role, but he's been also asked to fulfill LB duties. When he and Iraola were attacking we've been left with a 2 man back line.
I don't really see him as a winger but a more modern attacking full back. In most such systems the CDM is supposed to drop in to make a back 3, but we are too careless with the ball and poor at pressing to make it work. I can't really say why he doesn't strike me as a winger.
Exactly. Now that those two have sat early, we have RJ and Wingert back there where they belong not bombing up the pitch the whole game, losing the ball and getting outrun on the counter. RJ is oddly enough better at executing what Kreis likely wanted Angelino to do. RJ can get forward in the attack but has chosen those times more carefully I guess. He's been staying at home base. We know Square Wheels Wingert can't run, so he's been solid at closing down and slowing the ball. We've also seen Jacobson mostly staying back. That's giving us 5 in the back. Now the big 3 have their triangle up top and Ned and Mix on the wings to assist.
I really hope that Kreis doesn't go messing with this tactic too much. Wingert is out on accumulation so who do we see in his stead? My guess is Mena. If not then I think RJ will switch sides and Andoni will play RB.
Could we do better with that international spot? Probably.
But before we get to can we use Angelino's international spot better, I'd look to do better with the spots for Velasquez and Alvarez.
I agree in that, to me, he looks like an attacking FB at a higher European level. That type of player is common on better teams, but you don't see many of them in MLS, probably because there are so many turnovers that leave the back exposed.
Now that we seem to be playing Jacobson in a real holding MF role, there might be some scope to let Angelino get up the pitch more, particularly if whoever is playing right back is a bit more conservative. Before his disaster at the back on Saturday, he did have the great run and cross for the third goal. But Angelino needs to play with some discipline on Saturday, particularly against Vancouver of all teams.
The positional report above says everything about what has changed in that Jacobson is so much deeper than Pirlo. Many of us have been screaming for a true defensive mid all season, but I think the last games show that even a guy who might not be ideally suited for the role can improve us dramatically so long as somebody is playing the role.
This is true to an extent. Those attacking FBs still have to be able to mark their man on the wings. Angelino may be that level in the future but he's got a lot of work ahead and I'm not too thrilled to have a defensive liability like him learning on the job for us so that Man City or any other top Euro club can reap the benefits later.
One thing's for sure... against a team like Vancouver, which thrives on the counter attack, we need to be super careful about our FBs bombing forward. Normally, I would say that means starting Wingert at LB, but that's not going to be an option. Angelino needs to show discipline big time.
Mgarbowski research is peerless.
The stats don't lie. The deciding factor in all of this.. Angelina is out of position and his depth (defending) and detrimental to our team.
A square peg In a round hole.
Now, I could point the finger of blame at the boss, but I paradoxically think it could benefit Angelino In the long term. Adding knowledge and understanding will improve him.
But will it benefit Nyc and Kreis?
The stats don't lie. The deciding factor in all of this.. Angelina is out of position and his depth (defending) and detrimental to our team.
A square peg In a round hole.
Now, I could point the finger of blame at the boss, but I paradoxically think it could benefit Angelino In the long term. Adding knowledge and understanding will improve him.
But will it benefit Nyc and Kreis?
I don't think he will mess with the tactics much but next game will be a little interesting. Wingert out with yellows, and Iraola is probably out until at least October. Does RJ have a leg injury after coming off last game? I think we see Angelino at LB and who knows at RB. At least we kind of have some consistency with the Facey-Hernandez pairing.
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