The 171st Best Team in the World

[Sabo]

Once 538 settled on a formula ranking the strength of different leagues against each other the next step was to create a global ranking of soccer teams. We are 260th. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

MLS is waaaay down in league strength because a) we are in CONCACAF, b) a USA team hasn't won the CONCACAF championship since 2000 and c) MLS salary cap structure limits transfer value/fees (used as one of the objective measures of league strength).

Still an interesting read. With a win over NJRB tomorrow we should leap over Guadalajara.

 

[sbrylski]

Obviously these things should be taken with an enormous grain of salt, but interesting to see Toronto listed above all but two Liga MX teams. Then there's 9 more Liga MX teams before we get to us, 2nd in MLS.

Browsing the list though, it actually passes the eyeball test more than I'd expect.

EDIT: IFK Göteborg at 203rd. Mix is one of their better players per WhoScored.com. Fun stuff.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I love 538, but their soccer stuff isn't even close to being useful.

In their defense it is probably the hardest sport to model.

 

[dannd23]

Very flawed rankings outside the top 20 or so, but still interesting none the less.

Just from a non-European standpoint, Tigres deserves to be in the top 50, Toronto top 150, NYCFC in the top 180 or so. Not sure why all the love for the Brazilian teams. A very overrated league outside of 1 or 2 squads.

 

[EganSoccerWords]

I will cherry pick and say I enjoy the fact that 538's SPI gives us a 99% of making the playoffs.

 

[Rimil]

Also I would say, 538 really only touches major and semi-major leagues. They don't get into the nitty gritty of top clubs in smaller leagues.

This is just UEFA club coefficient rankings:
http://www.uefa.com/memberassociations/uefarankings/club/index.html

Hibernian (Scotland) ranked near the bottom at 426 on FiveThirtyEight's list, and 270 in uefa. So starting at 270 and looking above you can see a lot of Eastern European, Balkan, even top Belgian clubs that rank higher but aren't in 538's ranking. Now it's a different style of ranking system based on appearances in international cups, so some that appear above Hibernian may rank lower in 538, but still its clear the list is incomplete. And this is just looking at europe, do the same for the other continents and you'll realise we are likely much further down then 260 in the world if all clubs got listed.

 

[Mario]

how the fuck is inter 16th. they've been useless for 7 years,

 

[dannd23]

38th place is Leganes. They finished 17th in La Liga last year, and are entering their second season ever in the top division. On the all time La Liga table, they are in 57th place.

Actually, La Liga as a whole is criminally overrated probably bc Real, Barca, and Atletico pull them up so much. Eibar, Leganes, and Alaves are all in the top 40.

 

[Mario]

38th place is Leganes. They finished 17th in La Liga last year, and are entering their second season ever in the top division. On the all time La Liga table, they are in 57th place.

Actually, La Liga as a whole is criminally overrated probably bc Real, Barca, and Atletico pull them up so much. Eibar, Leganes, and Alaves are all in the top 40.

how did palermo get relegated and then drop to 210th-ish and those guys are 40?

 

[dannd23]

how did palermo get relegated and then drop to 210th-ish and those guys are 40?

This is what happens when you let nerds rank soccer teams

 

[Joseph Bianco]

538 is trash for soccer.

 

[Mario]

This is what happens when you let nerds rank soccer teams

they lose 7-0 at least 4times a season lol but thats unimportant

 

[Sabo]

538 made significant changes to their model on Friday resulting in a jump of about 100 spots for NYCFC. We are now at 171 between Toluca and Leeds. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

They modified their predictive model to account for the importance of the game to the 2 teams playing. If a game is important to one team and not the other the team for which the game "counts" is more likely to win. If the game is meaningless for both the result is more random -- apparently this change makes their model much more accurate.

I don't think that methodology change is the reason for our jump in the rankings. I just thought it was interesting I assume 538 just updated the market value of all teams before the start of the Premiere League which resulted in a higher SPI=ranking for NYCFC.

 

[Gotham Gator]

538 made significant changes to their model on Friday resulting in a jump of about 100 spots for NYCFC. We are now at 171 between Toluca and Leeds. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/global-club-soccer-rankings/

We are now 171 between Toluca and the NJ Red Bulls. Leeds is down to 174. So, it’s official. Jack Harrison’s big move to Europe led him to play for a worse team!

 

[mgarbowski]

I don't think that methodology change is the reason for our jump in the rankings. I just thought it was interesting I assume 538 just updated the market value of all teams before the start of the Premiere League which resulted in a higher SPI=ranking for NYCFC.

I noticed this too. The SPI ratings of Atlanta, Red Bulls and NYCFC all jumped 8-10 points in one week. NYC's offense and defense score both jumped 0.2 goals (up for offense, down for defense). The ranking of 1.6 offense and 1.3 defense are the best the team has had this year, and likely the best ever. It is also the first time those scores resolve to a positive GD, meaning NYC now presumably sits a bit above world average in the ranking, as these numbers indicate predicted goals against an average opponent on a neutral field.
This is also the first time NYC is ranked second in the league in SPI this year, and presumably also forever.

Finally, I think you are right that this methodology change is not the reason for the rise in the world ranking. The global ranking page indicates Atlanta (down 3) and RB (down 1) both dropped this week, while NYCFC went up by 5. The MLS teams must have been going up steadily since last year. I would think the better-then-usual showing by Toronto and Red Bulls in CCL this year had some effect on that.