2019 By The Numbers: There's A City In My Mind, Come Along

Yes. Doyle has been saying we were MLS cup favs for a month or two now. But when asked who is the best team in the league, he'll go right for LAFC despite the numbers saying we are just as good if not a little better. we just had a slower start to the season with a new coach, new system, some new players.

Y'all know what I think of Doyle, but every single stat we use as a proxy for team strength points to LAFC being the best side in MLS history. NYCFC's numbers are good but not eye-poppingly good. If we meet for the cup they'll be heavy favorites, and not just because of home advantage.
 
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If we win on Saturday, we will end up with 64 points, which would put us tied for 7th all-time in the post-shootout era.

Win or lose, we will end up in 4th place in terms of both points per game and average points per season over our entire history (behind LAFC, Atlanta and Seattle).

We have already clinched our second Top 2 finish in the league third Top 4 finish. This places us 12th in the league in Top 4 finishes alongside Houston (and potentially Atlanta) and ahead of Toronto, Vancouver, Portland, Philly, Vancouver and Montreal, among others.
 
If we win on Saturday, we will end up with 64 points, which would put us tied for 7th all-time in the post-shootout era.

Win or lose, we will end up in 4th place in terms of both points per game and average points per season over our entire history (behind LAFC, Atlanta and Seattle).

We have already clinched our second Top 2 finish in the league third Top 4 finish. This places us 12th in the league in Top 4 finishes alongside Houston (and potentially Atlanta) and ahead of Toronto, Vancouver, Portland, Philly, Vancouver and Montreal, among others.

Imagine we had 3 DPs playing for us all the time throughout our history.


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Win or lose, we will end up in 4th place in terms of both points per game and average points per season over our entire history (behind LAFC, Atlanta and Seattle).

All the more impressive in that the first year PPG of each of those 4 teams is
LAFC 1.68
Atlanta 1.62
Seattle 1.57
NYCFC 1.09

NYCFC put itself in a hole in Year 1 and has climbed significantly since then.
 
Claudio Reyna deserves a hell of a lot of credit for what he's done to this roster since the first season.

Also blame for handicapping it. But he was learning on the fly and has shown himself to be an astute and quick leaner, who can adjust on the fly. I’m glad the club gave him the rope he needed after season 1. And even more glad he didn’t hand himself with it.
 
In My Beginning Is My End

In a compacted 31 week season, NYCFC did not touch First Place until Week 27 after playing 28 games. But, when measured on even games played, NYC first tied for First Place after 16 games. They dropped to Fourth after losing the next 2 games, but were back tied after 19 games again. From Game 20 on they held First Place alone for all but 2 weeks (twice briefly falling to second to Philadelphia), and took First Place for good after 24 games played.
East 10-7-2019.jpg
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Screen Shot 2019-10-06 at 7.50.39 PM.jpg
Screen Shot 2019-10-06 at 8.04.58 PM.jpg
Team Records Set
Most points (64).
Highest Goal Differential (21)
Highest East Finish (First)
Highest Supporters Shield Finish (Second)
Goals For (63)
Goals Against (42)

NYCFC is one of only 7 teams to finish a season with a winning Away record since 2015.
Since and including 2015, when NYC went 4-10-3 Away, no team has more Away points (103). The Red Bulls have 101.

NYCFC has the third highest point total since coming into the league in 2015 with 268, behind Red Bulls (286) and FC Dallas (271).
NYCFC has the highest total points over the last 4 years: 2016-2019 (231), ahead of Red Bulls (226) and Seattle (216).

In My End Is My Beginning

"At some point math takes over." May 24, 2015

On May 25,2015 a series of posts on the NYCFC forums starting here, I began adding up how hard it would be to get the points necessary to make the playoffs. The day before, I responded to a series of optimistic posts with the above terse statement that has animated my view all along: no matter how hard you believe (or don't), if you look honestly at the numbers they won't lie to you. On July 19, I started a new thread with a series of posts whose theme was what needed to be done and how it could happen, however unlikely. That effort was the beginning of this column.

It's been fun, and it's been a lot of work, and after 5 years I think I'm calling an end to creating it weekly.

It feels like there is a nice symmetry to things. In 2015 I mostly seemed to be countering irrational exuberance, and in 2019, at least occasionally, I had to convince people that this team really was good and would finish well. It helped that the last 14 games of the season played exactly as I anticipated. As July turned to August, I started stating that the team could very well lose 2 of the next 3 (Away to RSL and Atlanta and hosting Houston in between), then dominate the next 7, and face a tough final 4 games of which the Atlanta game would be key. This did not take amazing foresight or brilliant analysis: I was just looking at the schedule. But as it happened they did lose in RSL and Atlanta, won 19 points of the next 21, and then all but clinched by beating Atlanta. That's a good way to go out.

For balance, probably my wrongest take ever was predicting NYCFC would not make the playoffs on May 29, 2016 after a a dispiriting Home draw against Orlando. An even more dismal Home loss to RSL a few days later produced even more pessimism, though I can't find the specific post at the moment.

I'm not going to stop keeping track of the same stats and graphs, and I will occasionally write them up when I am inclined or inspired to do so, but I think I am done with the regular grind of creating weekly NYCFC content.

What we call the beginning is often the end
And to make an end is to make a beginning.
The end is where we start from.

grey-man-underground.jpg
 
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Thanks for your efforts; this column was definitely one of the ones I look forward to every week!
If I could throw an idea out, maybe you could break the season into quarters (if we do 34 games next year, 8-9-9-8)?

I appreciate all you've done!
 
In My Beginning Is My End

In a compacted 31 week season, NYCFC did not touch First Place until Week 27 after playing 28 games. But, when measured on even games played, NYC first tied for First Place after 16 games. They dropped to Fourth after losing the next 2 games, but were back tied after 19 games again. From Game 20 on they held First Place alone for all but 2 weeks (twice briefly falling to second to Philadelphia), and took First Place for good after 24 games played.
View attachment 10341
View attachment 10343
View attachment 10344
View attachment 10345
Team Records Set
Most points (64).
Highest Goal Differential (21)
Highest East Finish (First)
Highest Supporters Shield Finish (Second)
Goals For (63)
Goals Against (42)

NYCFC is one of only 7 teams to finish a season with a winning Away record since 2015.
Since and including 2015, when NYC went 4-10-3 Away, no team has more Away points (103). The Red Bulls have 101.

NYCFC has the third highest point total since coming into the league in 2015 with 268, behind Red Bulls (286) and FC Dallas (271).
NYCFC has the highest total points over the last 4 years: 2016-2019 (231), ahead of Red Bulls (226) and Seattle (216).

In My End Is My Beginning

"At some point math takes over." May 24, 2015

On May 25,2015 a series of posts on the NYCFC forums starting here, I began adding up how hard it would be to get the points necessary to make the playoffs. The day before, I responded to sa series of optimistic posts with the above terse statement that has animated my view all along: no matter how hard you believe (or don't), if you look honestly at the numbers they won't lie to you. On July 19, I started a new thread with a series of posts whose theme was what needed to be done and hot it could happen, however unlikely. That effort was the beginning of this column.

It's been fun, and it's been a lot of work, and after 5 years I think I'm calling an end to creating it weekly.

It feels like there is a nice symmetry to things. In 2015 I mostly seemed to be countering irrational exuberance, and in 2019, at least occasionally, I had to convince people that this team really was good and would finish well. It helped that the last 14 games of the season played exactly as I anticipated. As July turned to August, I started stating that the team could very well lose 2 of the next 3 (Away to RSL and Atlanta and hosting Houston in between), then dominate the next 7, and face a tough final 4 games of which the Atlanta game would be key. This did not take amazing foresight or brilliant analysis: I was just looking at the schedule. But as it happened they did lose in RSL and Atlanta, won 19 points of the next 21, and then all but clinched by beating Atlanta. That's a good way to go out.

For balance, probably my wrongest take ever was predicting NYCFC would not make the playoffs on May 29, 2016 after a a dispiriting Home draw against Orlando. An even more dismal Home loss to RSL a few days later produced even more pessimism, though I can't find the specific post at the moment.

I'm not going to stop keeping track of the same stats and graphs, and I will occasionally write them up when I am inclined or inspired to do so, but I think I am done with the regular grind of creating weekly NYCFC content.

What we call the beginning is often the end
And to make an end is to make a beginning.
The end is where we start from.

View attachment 10342

Thanks for all the hard work Mark! I've always looked forward to the weekly posts.
 
In My Beginning Is My End

In a compacted 31 week season, NYCFC did not touch First Place until Week 27 after playing 28 games. But, when measured on even games played, NYC first tied for First Place after 16 games. They dropped to Fourth after losing the next 2 games, but were back tied after 19 games again. From Game 20 on they held First Place alone for all but 2 weeks (twice briefly falling to second to Philadelphia), and took First Place for good after 24 games played.
View attachment 10341
View attachment 10343
View attachment 10344
View attachment 10345
Team Records Set
Most points (64).
Highest Goal Differential (21)
Highest East Finish (First)
Highest Supporters Shield Finish (Second)
Goals For (63)
Goals Against (42)

NYCFC is one of only 7 teams to finish a season with a winning Away record since 2015.
Since and including 2015, when NYC went 4-10-3 Away, no team has more Away points (103). The Red Bulls have 101.

NYCFC has the third highest point total since coming into the league in 2015 with 268, behind Red Bulls (286) and FC Dallas (271).
NYCFC has the highest total points over the last 4 years: 2016-2019 (231), ahead of Red Bulls (226) and Seattle (216).

In My End Is My Beginning

"At some point math takes over." May 24, 2015

On May 25,2015 a series of posts on the NYCFC forums starting here, I began adding up how hard it would be to get the points necessary to make the playoffs. The day before, I responded to sa series of optimistic posts with the above terse statement that has animated my view all along: no matter how hard you believe (or don't), if you look honestly at the numbers they won't lie to you. On July 19, I started a new thread with a series of posts whose theme was what needed to be done and hot it could happen, however unlikely. That effort was the beginning of this column.

It's been fun, and it's been a lot of work, and after 5 years I think I'm calling an end to creating it weekly.

It feels like there is a nice symmetry to things. In 2015 I mostly seemed to be countering irrational exuberance, and in 2019, at least occasionally, I had to convince people that this team really was good and would finish well. It helped that the last 14 games of the season played exactly as I anticipated. As July turned to August, I started stating that the team could very well lose 2 of the next 3 (Away to RSL and Atlanta and hosting Houston in between), then dominate the next 7, and face a tough final 4 games of which the Atlanta game would be key. This did not take amazing foresight or brilliant analysis: I was just looking at the schedule. But as it happened they did lose in RSL and Atlanta, won 19 points of the next 21, and then all but clinched by beating Atlanta. That's a good way to go out.

For balance, probably my wrongest take ever was predicting NYCFC would not make the playoffs on May 29, 2016 after a a dispiriting Home draw against Orlando. An even more dismal Home loss to RSL a few days later produced even more pessimism, though I can't find the specific post at the moment.

I'm not going to stop keeping track of the same stats and graphs, and I will occasionally write them up when I am inclined or inspired to do so, but I think I am done with the regular grind of creating weekly NYCFC content.

What we call the beginning is often the end
And to make an end is to make a beginning.
The end is where we start from.

View attachment 10342

Thanks for all this. These posts really added to these forums over the years. This place will be a little more empty without them.
 
I understand why you would want to step it down. You put in so much work to produce these, it must not have been easy. Thanks so much for the time you put in!! I'll miss these posts!