CCL race

adam

adam

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With 5 teams tied at 48 points after tonight, and Dallas already in with their USOC win, either we have 3 teams vying for 1 CCL spot OR if Toronto wins the east 4 teams vying for 2 spots. We know some of the opponents from the playoff thread. But here's the expanded SS schedule. Someone feel free to gauge the strength of each with your lies, damn lies, and statistics.

NJRB: (ccl match) PHI, wk off, CLB, @ PHI
NYC: @HOU, wk off, @DC, CLB
COL: POR, @HOU, SJ & @POR, HOU
LA: @DAL, wk off, @HOU, DAL

Just on the face of it, LA has the hardest schedule facing Dallas 2 of their last 3 matches. Colorado has an edge on everyone with 2 matches in hand (but they also have no rest week and a Thursday/Sunday match in the same week!). It may really come down to us vs NJ for the last CCL spot. Why not throw some gas on the fire? Right??? We got a fun month ahead boys and girls.

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I had never considered this. Forgot how Dallas played into this. And Toronto won the Canadian Championship.

So the next three spots to be filled will be

1) East Champion (other than Toronto)
2) West Champion (other than FC Dallas)
3) MLS Cup Champion

I had written off the CCL qualifying through the regular season but it's still very real. At this point, we need to finish second anyway to grab a bye. Assuming TFC is in the driver's seat with a game in hand, if we finish above RBNJ and below TFC, we're in the CCL?
 
just read the rules. Let's assume that TFC and FC Dallas win their conferences.

TFC is in through Canada's allocated spot
FC Dallas is in through the US Open Cup

Then, they go to the Supporters' Shield table. The next two teams in the Supporters' Shield will qualify.

Let's take it a step further. Let's say the above happens with TFC and FC Dallas and the third team in the Supporters' Shield is Colorado. Colorado wins MLS Cup. RBNJ and NYCFC, finishing 4th and 5th, would qualify for CCL.

That's awesome.
 
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Kjbert said:
just read the rules. Let's assume that TFC and FC Dallas win their conferences.

TFC is in through Canada's allocated spot
FC Dallas is in through the US Open Cup

Then, they go to the Supporters' Shield table. The next two teams in the Supporters' Shield will qualify.

Let's take it a step further. Let's say the above happens with TFC and FC Dallas and the third team in the Supporters' Shield is Colorado. Colorado wins MLS Cup. RBNJ and NYCFC, finishing 4th and 5th, would qualify for CCL.

That's awesome.
Click to expand...

Correct. I'm not factoring in an extra spot for the MLS Cup winner. That would be great to root for if we just miss the CCL spots available (and don't win the cup ourselves). This will track qualification by end of season and before playoffs. Right now there are 2 spots up for grabs and 4 teams tied in points. I don't think RSL can jump 4 teams in 3 games down 3 points without all those teams experiencing a major collapse.
 
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It basically boils down to this - although there are some extremely unlikely scenarios that could change things.
  • If we finish Top 3 among the U.S. teams in the Supporters Shield standings, and one of the other two are Dallas or the MLS Cup Champion, we are in.
  • If we finish 4th among the U.S. teams in the Supporters Shield standings, and both of Dallas and the MLS Cup Champion are among the other three, we are in.
(note - it also works in each scenario if a Canadian team is MLS Cup Champion)

It's also worth noting that the first tiebreaker in the Supporters' Shield standings is number of victories. The second tiebreaker is goal differential. This means that we would almost certainly hold the tiebreaker over LA and/or Colorado if we were equal on points. We would almost certainly lose the tiebreaker to anyone else.
 
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Colorado have 2 of their last 5 against Portland and their attack in every game I have seen them play is really weak. They have been punching above their weight this season and its bound to even out eventually. I expect the Rapids will tie 3 out of their last 5 games.

I suspect we will have a team to root for in the MLS Cup even if we get knocked out of the playoffs before then because of the CCL.
 
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derek_villa said:
If we win out, we have a very good chance at the shield:
https://www.reddit.com/r/NYCFC/comments/54r0fp/if_we_win_the_next_3_games/
Click to expand...
Anything is still possible and that outcome would be great if the cards fall in our favor. Contrary to the comments on that Reddit page, I think DC may be our easiest game of the three:

Houston is away, but weather conditions could hurt us and they've been playing better. Plus, they're so bad they have nothing to lose and will be least stressed of our opponents. If we stay composed, we should win the war of attrition by out passing them for a good score, but it could take a while to break them down.

DC is away, but their stadium is a trash can and doesn't necessarily have a real home field advantage. They will however be fighting for their playoff lives which means they'll be tense and tight - very susceptible to making mistakes or pressing to hard. This is where we let them push and hit hem on the counter with speed.

Columbus is a home game but they just seem to have our number. I still think we win it, because our home form has become quite good and the team will want to finish as high in the conference as possible in front of their own fans, but Columbus scares the crap out of me.
 
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Ulrich said:
Anything is still possible and that outcome would be great if the cards fall in our favor. Contrary to the comments on that Reddit page, I think DC may be our easiest game of the three:

Houston is away, but weather conditions could hurt us and they've been playing better. Plus, they're so bad they have nothing to lose and will be least stressed of our opponents. If we stay composed, we should win the war of attrition by out passing them for a good score, but it could take a while to break them down.

DC is away, but their stadium is a trash can and doesn't necessarily have a real home field advantage. They will however be fighting for their playoff lives which means they'll be tense and tight - very susceptible to making mistakes or pressing to hard. This is where we let them push and hit hem on the counter with speed.

Columbus is a home game but they just seem to have our number. I still think we win it, because our home form has become quite good and the team will want to finish as high in the conference as possible in front of their own fans, but Columbus scares the crap out of me.
Click to expand...
I don't like the Columbus game either, but it would be really nice to see them knocked out of the playoffs this weekend.
 
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Here are the updated matches remaining.

NJRB: wk off, CLB, @ PHI
NYC: wk off, @DC, CLB
COL: @HOU, SJ & @POR, HOU
LA: wk off, @HOU, DAL

Toronto's draw and loss (and losing third game in hand) changed things up a bit. Chances are that the East's CCL spot will go to the East winner (either NYC or NJ with NJ owning the tiebreaker). Dallas also helped cement their place at the top with their win vs LA. It's not a given, as COL still has 2 matches in hand. But it would take either NY or NJ winning out coupled with no points in their next 2 matches. Or COL winning both their matches in hand and playing them even in the other 2 matches. And I still don't consider COL's match at POR on 3 days rest very winnable. That means we're playing for 1 open CCL spot: the West winner (if Dallas wins the West).

As of now we'd get the last CCL spot, with NJ winning the East on tie breakers. But COL could eventually pass both NY & NJ in the standings and take that away. If that happens, it still comes down to NY vs NJ, but it's both the East and CCL on the line. *

* if we lost out to NJ and COL did pass us (but stayed ahead of LA), we'd still be in position for the last CCL spot if NY, NJ, COL, or DAL won the MLS Cup.



IMG_7650.PNG
 
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adam said:
Here are the updated matches remaining.

NJRB: wk off, CLB, @ PHI
NYC: wk off, @DC, CLB
COL: @HOU, SJ & @POR, HOU
LA: wk off, @HOU, DAL

Toronto's draw and loss (and losing third game in hand) changed things up a bit. Chances are that the East's CCL spot will go to the East winner (either NYC or NJ with NJ owning the tiebreaker). Dallas also helped cement their place at the top with their win vs LA. It's not a given, as COL still has 2 matches in hand. But it would take either NY or NJ winning out coupled with no points in their next 2 matches. Or COL winning both their matches in hand and playing them even in the other 2 matches. And I still don't consider COL's match at POR on 3 days rest very winnable. That means we're playing for 1 open CCL spot: the West winner (if Dallas wins the West).

As of now we'd get the last CCL spot, with NJ winning the East on tie breakers. But COL could eventually pass both NY & NJ in the standings and take that away. If that happens, it still comes down to NY vs NJ, but it's both the East and CCL on the line. *

* if we lost out to NJ and COL did pass us (but stayed ahead of LA), we'd still be in position for the last CCL spot if NY, NJ, COL, or DAL won the MLS Cup.



View attachment 5854
Click to expand...
And that table is slightly outdated as San Jose did us a favor and basically took RSL out of the equation. They are now even on games with us and 6 points behind
 
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With a couple of unexpected results, suddenly CCL actually looks fairly (dare I say) likely. We only need to win one of our last 2 to secure a top 4 SS (American) finish. I have a hard time seeing any of the bottom 3 from the east winning MLS Cup. So the only remaining hurdle is a surprise run by one of the 3-6 qualifiers out of the west to win it all.
 
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FootyLovin said:
With a couple of unexpected results, suddenly CCL actually looks fairly (dare I say) likely. We only need to win one of our last 2 to secure a top 4 SS (American) finish. I have a hard time seeing any of the bottom 3 from the east winning MLS Cup. So the only remaining hurdle is a surprise run by one of the 3-6 qualifiers out of the west to win it all.
Click to expand...

Actually, Montreal winning gets us in too. Only Philly & DCU from the East hurts us. From the west there are 4 teams, so we'll need to root for Dallas and Colorado to come out of there. With byes and home field (and having better teams) they have the best chances.
 
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