MLS - April 4 - St. Louis (CF)

[gbservis]

So does Bernardo Silva join after the World Cup?

Silva has said a few times that he wants to end his career with Benfica so I think he's headed to Portugal. The question is, if they could get him to come to NYCFC, would they even try? I doubt it, we were a medical away from using our only DP spot on an occasional starter from the German second division.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Silva has said a few times that he wants to end his career with Benfica so I think he's headed to Portugal. The question is, if they could get him to come to NYCFC, would they even try? I doubt it, we were a medical away from using our only DP spot on an occasional starter from the German second division.

No, he's excess goods for what we already have. We need to use our DP spot on a striker, not on a defensive midfielder, a position we are already loaded in.

I thought all winter that if we wanted to be legit MLS Cup threats we needed to sign a striker in the winter window. While I still believe that, it's important to note that we will only be 16 games in at the World Cup break, and if we are able to sign someone for the start of the summer window, they would have the ability to debut when we return from the break.

That's a big difference from last year when we only had 11 games left as Nico debuted. I still think we're going to pay for not signing someone for these next 10 games, but it's not nearly as bad as it would have been last year.

 

[LionNYC]

Good breakdown of both goals by St. Louis media, as retweeted by Blue City Radio

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040784062911000851

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040883258297078060

 

[gbservis]

No, he's excess goods for what we already have. We need to use our DP spot on a striker, not on a defensive midfielder, a position we are already loaded in.

I thought all winter that if we wanted to be legit MLS Cup threats we needed to sign a striker in the winter window. While I still believe that, it's important to note that we will only be 16 games in at the World Cup break, and if we are able to sign someone for the start of the summer window, they would have the ability to debut when we return from the break.

That's a big difference from last year when we only had 11 games left as Nico debuted. I still think we're going to pay for not signing someone for these next 10 games, but it's not nearly as bad as it would have been last year.

I don't disagree that striker at this moment is our primary need but Silva is a CAM that also plays RW so he's not that redundant (still don't think he wants to come here). Maxi won't play forever, Ojeda will be sold the moment they get an offer for him they like and I'm not convinced they will resign Wolf when his contract is up in Dec 2027. Wolf makes just below DP threshold and takes a ton of TAM. Multiple announcers have mentioned various quotes from the club about needing more from Wolf. He's been productive but the bar is higher for him given the massive amount of roster resources he consumes.

The way the club likes to kick the can down the road on signings I would not be surprised at all if as we approach the summer window Sims start talking about how well Alonso's rehab is going and how the team needs to consider not blocking players when making signings. If that happens the near term need shifts to a RW/CAM replacement for Maxi and/or Ojeda with the primary position of need being determined on where they see Nico long term (assuming he sticks around).

 

[FootyLovin]

Good breakdown of both goals by St. Louis media, as retweeted by Blue City Radio

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040784062911000851

https://twitter.com/x/status/2040883258297078060

Good analysis. Really damning on Martins and Gustavo. Even just looking at their body positioning. As the ball was struck the offensive player was facing toward goal. They were both facing away from goal. So while the SL player(s) was charging, they were busy turning around. By the time they turned the play was over. And as the SL commentary observed, it wasn't like it was a surprise cross. It was completely telegraphed.

 

[FootyLovin]

In our collective frustration at the "loss" probably not enough was said about how pretty our goal was. Really good tight maneuvering. Terrific work from Parks to spring the whole thing. Excellent immediate acceleration toward goal by Wolf once he received. Great give and go movement from him on the layoff to Maxi. Perfectly weighted pass from Maxi. Really nice one-touch finish from Wolf. And an essential run on the outside from Ojeda to draw their LB away from Wolf to create that tiny bit of space. *chef's kiss*

 

[gbservis]

Good analysis. Really damning on Martins and Gustavo. Even just looking at their body positioning. As the ball was struck the offensive player was facing toward goal. They were both facing away from goal. So while the SL player(s) was charging, they were busy turning around. By the time they turned the play was over. And as the SL commentary observed, it wasn't like it was a surprise cross. It was completely telegraphed.

Martins has a number of elite level skills for MLS, particularly his speed and ball skills but he's horrendous on balls in the air both defensively and on offensive corners. Raul is just a flat out liability. $800k annual salary is a lot of money for a streaky CB/LB backup.

On a positive note Trewin is the real deal and not only has he seamlessly replaced Haak he's looking like an upgrade.

 

[joe]

Enjoyed The Outfield's write up of the shift at the end of the St Louis match Puckered

In the moment it felt like the announcers were overstating how inevitable/deserved the St Louis goal was, but the chain of possession data is certainly telling. On the other hand, it is funny to see Pascal being hammered for puckering when in my mind that has been one of the defining features of this team for years.

 

[mgarbowski]

On the other hand, it is funny to see Pascal being hammered for puckering when in my mind that has been one of the defining features of this team for years.

I'm fascinated by the contrast between fan perceptions and the data which shows that under Pascal, NYCFC has turtled more than average in MLS, as measured by average length of possession chain with a late 1-goal lead compared to that team's average LOPC overall. I'd love to see this metric under Cushing and the direction and amount of change under Pascal.

My conclusion is that fans react to goals and results: they convince themselves that the results are representative of the style of play even though the results of 1-goal games are wildly erratic. Last year NYCFC ranked 2T in MLS for 1-goal wins and 27thT in draws despite shifting to conservative play by a more than average amount. This year, with extremely low sample size, those outlier results are collapsing: we rank 13T in 1-goal wins and 2T in draws. Also, last year we scored a lead taking goal 26 times and conceded 9 equalizers (35%). This year we've scored a lead taking goal 6 times and conceded 3 equalizers (50%).

Honestly, who knows how it will end up but the it's very unlikely we have so many 1-goal wins and so few draws by years end. We most likely revert to mean and I believe this will say very little about the team's style of play with a lead.

 

[joe]

I'm fascinated by the contrast between fan perceptions and the data which shows that under Pascal, NYCFC has turtled more than average in MLS, as measured by average length of possession chain with a late 1-goal lead compared to that team's average LOPC overall. I'd love to see this metric under Cushing and the direction and amount of change under Pascal.

My conclusion is that fans react to goals and results: they convince themselves that the results are representative of the style of play even though the results of 1-goal games are wildly erratic. Last year NYCFC ranked 2T in MLS for 1-goal wins and 27thT in draws despite shifting to conservative play by a more than average amount. This year, with extremely low sample size, those outlier results are collapsing: we rank 13T in 1-goal wins and 2T in draws. Also, last year we scored a lead taking goal 26 times and conceded 9 equalizers (35%). This year we've scored a lead taking goal 6 times and conceded 3 equalizers (50%).

Honestly, who knows how it will end up but the it's very unlikely we have so many 1-goal wins and so few draws by years end. We most likely revert to mean and I believe this will say very little about the team's style of play with a lead.

Would love to see possession chain data for all time, honestly. Hadn't heard of the stat before and like the idea of it. It would be very funny if all of the Cushingball angst turned out to be in our heads.

 

[mgarbowski]

Would love to see possession chain data for all time, honestly. Hadn't heard of the stat before and like the idea of it. It would be very funny if all of the Cushingball angst turned out to be in our heads.

In '23 Nick definitely played conservatively with a lead and with good reason: he had the worst offense in team history and for most of the season he had no striker and really nothing beyond Gabby, Santi, an ineffective Magno, and Gabe Segal. We were always more likely to concede an equalizer than score a cushion goal, especially with Barraza as keeper.

2024 is the season for which I'd love to see this data and compare Nick with Pascal. And then of course, for all the seasons.