MLS Cup Playoffs - December 11 - Portland (Away)

I had completely wiped from my mind that NYCFC lost to Portland (and looked pretty bad doing it) in the MLS is Back tournament which now feels like 5 years ago.

Given all the narratives broken on this playoff run, add another one to break: “beat a Savarese coached team for the first time.”
 
I had completely wiped from my mind that NYCFC lost to Portland (and looked pretty bad doing it) in the MLS is Back tournament which now feels like 5 years ago.

Given all the narratives broken on this playoff run, add another one to break: “beat a Savarese coached team for the first time.”
That dude has been pigeon kryptonite
 
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Can you explain that for us non bettors?

Essentially, it means how much you'll win with a $100 risk, if it's a + sign. +160 = you'll win $160 for every hundred.
If there's a minus sign, it means how much you risk to win $100. So if it's -160, that means you risk $160 to make $100

That's, of course, exclusive of the original $100 you make. Meaning if you risk $100 and it's +160, then you'll get $260 at the end.
 
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Essentially, it means how much you'll win with a $100 risk, if it's a + sign. +160 = you'll win $160 for every hundred.
If there's a minus sign, it means how much you risk to win $100. So if it's -160, that means you risk $160 to make $100

That's, of course, exclusive of the original $100 you make. Meaning if you risk $100 and it's +160, then you'll get $260 at the end.

So based on the line, the oddsmakers think the odds of either team winning are essentially equal and they think it's more likely that the game will finish at full time with a winner as opposed to being tied at 90 and going to extra time.
 
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too lazy to look back.. but seems like it went from portland slight favorites to pretty much a toss up now?

Lion posted this yesterday:

Monday Morning Money Line from BetMGM:

Portland +145, NYCFC +165, Draw +240

I don't know much about gambling but doesn't a shift like this often mean the initial bets came in heavily on NYCFC to win so they shifted to try to balance things out?
 

Essentially, it means how much you'll win with a $100 risk, if it's a + sign. +160 = you'll win $160 for every hundred.
If there's a minus sign, it means how much you risk to win $100. So if it's -160, that means you risk $160 to make $100

That's, of course, exclusive of the original $100 you make. Meaning if you risk $100 and it's +160, then you'll get $260 at the end.

To supplement that explanation, soccer games in the US often have two lines - the money line and the spread line. The +160/+160/+220 for this game includes the draw since the result is based on 90 minutes and not who wins and/or advances. If you bet on the NYCFC money line and they win in extra time, you would lose the wager.

The spread line is comparable to what you would see for an NFL or NBA game. For this game, the current odds I see are NYCFC -1/2 (+149), Portland + 1/2 (-204). It is also based on 90 minutes, but because there is a spread of 1/2 there must be a winning wager at the end of regulation. The +149 would result in $249 payout on a $100 bet for NYFC and the -204 would result in a $149.02 payout on a $100 bet on Portland.

If you are going to bet soccer and you have the option, always review both the money line and spread line since there can be slightly better odds for one or the other if you want to take a winning side. For this game, if you can find a spread line with NYCFC favored, that is the line to take if you are picking the Pigeons to win.

If you bet the money line, you can also hedge a win bet with a small wager on a draw. For example, a $100 bet on NYCFC to win and $25 bet on a draw would let you lower loss on a draw ($80 payout, $45 loss) and win at a lower return ($160 return, $35 gain). I would strongly recommend not hedging in this manner on a favorite or even choice such as NYCFC in this game as the hedge isn't worth the loss of potential gain, but if you are interested in an underdog on the money line, it can be a worthwhile maneuver.
 
Lion posted this yesterday:



I don't know much about gambling but doesn't a shift like this often mean the initial bets came in heavily on NYCFC to win so they shifted to try to balance things out?

Generally, yes. For most wagers, books want half the bets on each side so they can collect the vig and profit regardless of result. At times, larger books may be willing to take a weighted position if internal models lean to a result contrary to public opinion, but long term the best option is to 50/50 every line.

For MLS Cup, the line shift is likely to due to an influx of NYCFC money. That could be an analytics influx - expected goal models, I believe, strongly favor NYCFC more than Portland over the season - or it could be a New York City population influx with casual bettors in Gotham far outnumbering those in the Rose City.
 
Regardless of who wins today, it will be interesting to see if the Timbers put their money where their mouth is:

Away support would get about 1,250 at Providence Park under the 5% standard.
I don't have numbers but given the sales reports and additional batches of tickets made available I have to think the Timbers are allocating at or near (or even above?) 5% to us.
Full credit to Paulson and the organization.
 
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I don't have numbers but given the sales reports ad additional batches of tickets made available I have to think the Timbers are allocating at or near (or even above?) 5% to us.
Full credit to Paulson and the organization.
If you look at the sections we're given, that's 4 sections, and on the map looks like a sizeable chunk. This is gonna be awesome!
 
If you look at the sections we're given, that's 4 sections, and on the map looks like a sizeable chunk. This is gonna be awesome!

challenge to the traveling supporters to somehow, match or exceed timbers army's noise level. that'll be difficult I'm sure, but not a bad target! get yourself hydrated for all the screamin!