MLS - March 9 - Portland (Home - YS)

[JCMore]

Did anyone watch/rewatch any of nicks games in charge of man city’s women’s team? I think it’s very interesting that Nick wasn’t able to get the team running on all cylinders until after the women’s World Cup. A lot of speculation here, but what if a lot of his squad left and got actually coached under their national team coaches and came back and just…. performed well under Cushing.

Another converse thought I had was that Nick may not be a very good development coach. He was able to make top talent perform because they know how to perform. But he has yet to figure out how to handle the development and maybe the emotions involved with young talent.

 

[JCMore]

I’m also curious what our tune would be if we were able to grind out a 1-0 win over Portland. We we be saying it wasn’t pretty to watch, but the players played with heart and dug in to repel Portland’s pressure

 

[GratefulDawg]

This might explain why Cushing hasn't been sacked. A little cognitive dissonance from the NYCFC app?

 

[FootyLovin]

I’m also curious what our tune would be if we were able to grind out a 1-0 win over Portland.

For this reason I was actually happyish Portland scored the winner. I want us to play exciting football. A 1-0 win would have rewarded the bunkering mentality. I want parking the bus to get punished.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I get the complaining in this thread, but at bottom, that game was a smash-and-grab by Portland. They were not the better team on the night, and they won the game in the dying seconds on a worldie of a goal. Good for them, but not deserved.

And I mostly disagree that Cushing made a big switch to a defensive posture in the second half. The Haak substitute was putting a defensive mid on for an attacking mid. That's not the same as putting on a defender for an attacker and going to 3-in-the-back. That's bunkering.

I thought Bakrar was terrific - except for the finishing - which anyone who has seen the data knows isn't a real thing. He made great runs, got himself into dangerous positions, and even finished once but was just a hair offside. That's what we want from a striker.

Our biggest problem is ceding possession too easily. We were better playing out in this game, but we still huff the ball long too often for my liking. We are supposed to be the skilled team that can play in tight spaces. That looked better today when in the attacking third, but it's not what it should be.

 

[Brooklyn Blue]

And I mostly disagree that Cushing made a big switch to a defensive posture in the second half. The Haak substitute was putting a defensive mid on for an attacking mid. That's not the same as putting on a defender for an attacker and going to 3-in-the-back. That's bunkering.

There was definitely a change in approach at the start of the second half. In part, Portland tried to push for the equalizer, but the press was dialed back and players were sitting deeper. Accepting subjective bias,, I'll defer to anyone that has a heat map or the equivalent, but watching it live at the stadium the change in positioning was noticeable (my seats are at the endline).

The Haak subsitution was defensive, but that was secondary - and not unreasonable at that pount in the game. The greater concern was watching the team outpace and press Portalnd, successfully, for the bulk of the first half, then decide to stop what was working for the second forty-five. There was a change in approach, beyond any substituion or Portland effort.

 

[mgarbowski]

Accepting subjective bias,, I'll defer to anyone that has a heat map or the equivalent, but watching it live at the stadium the change in positioning was noticeable (my seats are at the endline).

It’s not exactly what you’re asking for but Doyle shared this attacking momentum graph:


Hard to say whether it was a coaching instruction, poor fitness, spontaneous reduction in attacking effort by the players, or something Portland forced. But we stopped attacking 40 minutes in.
We had 9 shots after 36 minutes. None the rest of the first half and 2 in the second. Things changed long before the Haak sub.

 

[JayH]

It’s not exactly what you’re asking for but Doyle shared this attacking momentum graph:

View attachment 13226
Hard to say whether it was a coaching instruction, poor fitness, spontaneous reduction in attacking effort by the players, or something Portland forced. But we stopped attacking 40 minutes in.
We had 9 shots after 36 minutes. None the rest of the first half and 2 in the second. Things changed long before the Haak sub.

I agree that it wasn’t the substitutions, and the criticism of Cushing for making the substitutions is misplaced. If anything, he tried to jump start the attacking by bringing in the kids, but they failed by mostly just rolling around.

As you note, what happened after 40 is the big mystery. It’s probably a combo of the factors you mention, with some of the usual flow of the game sprinkled in. I have also been wondering which kids KP called out - if he meant pre substitution, that suggests he thought some of the younger players lost their intensity and grind in the second half.

 

[Davo15]

I thought Bakrar was terrific - except for the finishing - which anyone who has seen the data knows isn't a real thing.

I’m honestly unclear what you mean by this ?

 

[gbservis]

I wholly disagree with this point. NYCFC/CFG has spent $25 million on this roster over the last nine months. That is a lot of money in MLS. Aside from Inter Miami's craziness, that has to be one of the biggest MLS roster spends in the last two transfer windows.

They didn't spend that much money to miss the playoffs again. They want to win here. I don't think they want to fire Cushing, but if we're not winning they're going to.

We can agree to disagree but I don't think saying well CFG spent a lot of money so clearly the goal is success for NYCFC while ignoring what they spent the money on. The majority of the money was spent on 3 18-year-olds who are not ready to contribute and look nothing like the type of value investments MLS teams make that lead to success. IMO CFG spent money on prospects they wanted for CFG, not because they were the right players to help NYCFC be successful. I am sure they think given the talent level of these young players that they would help but if NYCFC success was the #1 priority $20M would have been used much differently on 3 U22 spots.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I’m honestly unclear what you mean by this ?

Finishing almost always evens out for all players over a large sample size.

So a lot of the analytical people will say "finishing doesn't matter", because the thought is that ultimately there can and will be wild variances in finishing but a large sample size will show that players finish similarly to their xG output.

So ultimately, getting good chances matters more than finishing.

 

[SoupInNYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1767142121545380136

 

[ZYanksRule]

I’m also curious what our tune would be if we were able to grind out a 1-0 win over Portland. We we be saying it wasn’t pretty to watch, but the players played with heart and dug in to repel Portland’s pressure

It's a results business. If they grind out a win despite bunkering, we'd be happy for the win but worried about the strategy.

 

[Davo15]

Finishing almost always evens out for all players over a large sample size.

So a lot of the analytical people will say "finishing doesn't matter", because the thought is that ultimately there can and will be wild variances in finishing but a large sample size will show that players finish similarly to their xG output.

So ultimately, getting good chances matters more than finishing.

Ahh yes I’m one of those old school people who fall asleep as soon as anyone brings up XG and do believe that some players are that finishing is a separate skill in and of itself . Some players can get themselves in good positions all day long and just not finish .

 

[joe]

I just want to see a dynamic, attacking side today. And maybe a goal?

Finger curls on monkey's paw

 

[Gotham Gator]

Finishing almost always evens out for all players over a large sample size.

So a lot of the analytical people will say "finishing doesn't matter", because the thought is that ultimately there can and will be wild variances in finishing but a large sample size will show that players finish similarly to their xG output.

So ultimately, getting good chances matters more than finishing.

Thanks. That's what I meant.

If you look over very long timeframes (multiple seasons), very few players end up with actual goals that are substantially above or below expected goals. That suggests that whether a player finishes a particular chance or not is essentially a matter of chance, and things that are a matter of chance are random. Importantly, random outcomes can lead to much more streakiness than people assume - so you do end up with players going even an entire season finishing well or poorly.

Of course, there are a few players who regularly finish well above xG, but only a small handful. One of them plays for Inter Miami.

 

[Marito]

Thanks. That's what I meant.

If you look over very long timeframes (multiple seasons), very few players end up with actual goals that are substantially above or below expected goals. That suggests that whether a player finishes a particular chance or not is essentially a matter of chance, and things that are a matter of chance are random. Importantly, random outcomes can lead to much more streakiness than people assume - so you do end up with players going even an entire season finishing well or poorly.

Of course, there are a few players who regularly finish well above xG, but only a small handful. One of them plays for Inter Miami.

Also, the bulk of what makes a 9 being truly elite is the chance creation because (correct me if I'm wrong) the Gx will not compute a promising cross that was blocked by a defender instead of headed or kicked by an offensive player. So a striker who tends to be nowhere near the crosses would not underperform Gx, while a very active guy who really goes at everything no matter who slim the chance will probably underperform Gx. If you think about true freaks like Haaland, the amazing thing is how they try to meet every cross, body defenders off to gain positional advantage non stop, and just run much faster than their size should allow, and work their asses off. Of course, there are forwards who seem to kick always with pleasant form and thundering power (Isi Tajouri comes to mind) and others such as Bakrar who seem to scuffle the ball quite regularly. But Bakrar is much more active, and Gx is quite a promising indicator.

 

[KevinJRogers]

Even if things begin to click, MLS is very different than the Women's League. Everyone is investing in MLS, not everyone was investing in the Women's League. And even if things begin to click, I don't like us winning 1-0 with not exciting second half, defensive soccer.

Agreed. I was just talking about the pattern.

 

[KevinJRogers]

I agree that it wasn’t the substitutions, and the criticism of Cushing for making the substitutions is misplaced. If anything, he tried to jump start the attacking by bringing in the kids, but they failed by mostly just rolling around.

As you note, what happened after 40 is the big mystery. It’s probably a combo of the factors you mention, with some of the usual flow of the game sprinkled in. I have also been wondering which kids KP called out - if he meant pre substitution, that suggests he thought some of the younger players lost their intensity and grind in the second half.

We lost our momentum after the 35' mark when Neville moved Evander deeper into the midfield. For some reason, we couldn't handle it; right after that we suddenly couldn't find our passing lanes up the middle. And then when we went wide, we'd get doubled up against the touch line and forced to pass back. Guys started to revert and carry their dribble into traffic, and our attack just crumbled.

Then it was all Portland through the first 20 minutes of the second half, and I think at that point Nick figured he'd gone as far as he could with the Starting XI. He sent in Haak to strengthen us in the middle of pitch and Julian Fernandez to provide an opportunity on the counter. But it still went nowhere, so he decided to try and lock down the 1-0 lead and get the hell out of there with three points.

Which, obviously, didn't quite work out as planned.

Someone on the blogs was crying for Malachi Jones, which is certainly the right move on paper. In that situation, you want a super pacey winger to throw the Timbers off balance again. The problem is, Malachi is barely two months into his first professional contract and has zero minutes of Major League Soccer regular season experience.

There weren't a lot of other outfield options on the bench, either. Agustin Ojeda has one MLS appearance for 18 minutes. Strahinja Tanasijevic has zero minutes and has only scored twice in his entire career, plus he's the backup center back and needs to be available in case someone gets hurt, anyway. Not to mention, if you're looking to juice the attack, he's not the guy to look to.

Alonso Martinez logged 33 minutes of garbage time over three matches late last season after coming over from Lommel SK -- where, admittedly, he was rather good -- and has zero minutes of live game action this season. I'm not sure why he hasn't gotten much playing time (and that might be a legitimate criticism of Cushing, depending on the circumstances), but there it is.

And both Talles Magno and Maxi are still on the comeback trail. Both would almost certainly have been subs in this one were they healthy.

Had we scored that second goal in the first half, or better yet, two more, I'm sure Cushing would have played it differently and gotten some guys some minutes. Let's call it a Cushing Cushion. But we didn't, and I don't see what other direction he really could have taken at this point.

Which is why I say, we're not quite there yet. If this godawfulness had happened late in the season, when guys had their feet wet and the whole squad was ready to play, I'd have the pitchforks out for Nick, too. But right now, we're still on the upslope of the learning curve, and we're still thin.

And the learning curve is there. We were better against Portland than St. Louis; we were better against St. Louis, at least for 12 minutes, than against Charlotte, where we looked like a pickup team. And although we still suck, we don't suck quite as bad. Now we need a win.