MLS - September 3 - Nashville (Away)

[mgarbowski]

Aaaaand our lack of quality defending shows why the good leagues don't play during international breaks. I mean really, it has "break" right there in the name, ya know?

You might remember last year pe-Covid, the team had a schedule with no games during international breaks and the forum erupted with complaints because we had more midweek games and short rest than ever and also had to play at Citifield to make it work. You also should know, because you can count, that due to Covid we are playing a 34 game season in 30 weeks this year which leaves less than zero flexibility to take weeks off for the entire league. And you also know that FIFA sets the breaks for European leagues and tells MLS to suck shit.
Otherwise, solid point.

Yes I had a aggravating week, but I’m also consistently amazed at how often people will write things on the assumption that MLS can reorder the nature of time.

 

[Brooklyn Blue]

against the revs, we will be missing:

maxi - red
taty, cacha, medina - yellow cards

possibly missing depending on rest/fitness:
callens, chanot, sands, gudi

Medina will be out with his 5th yellow with no reductions.

Acevedo only has 4 'standard' yellow cards on the year so should not be suspended. He did receive 2 yellows vs. LAFC that led to a red. I am not sure how that is calculated for yellow card accumulation - however, he did serve a suspension after that. He has had 3 yellows since that time, (including tonight) which under normal accumulation rules would be a second suspension, but he should have earned a reduction since his last yellow before tonight was against Orlando. In brief, should be available, barring some red card math I missed.

Taty should be available. He has 6 yellows on the year, but he has earned 2 reductions prior to tonight. His running total should be at 4.

For the internationals it is going to be hit or miss as to who may be available:

Chanot seems the most likely to return for New England. His last game is 9/7 and it is a friendly (not a WCQ). He is a regular starter, but I wouldn't be shocked if he is released early.

Sands and Gudi both have games 9/8. Sands is bench depth, but if they play 5 at the back, he might go 90'. Gudi - who knows? It is Germany so there will be incentive to play hard.

Callens plays 9/9 against Brazil; I wouldn't expect him to be available.

 

[ZYanksRule]

was an uncontested drop ball cause ref stopped the game for an injury. dax touched the ball and then seemed to pass to his teammate. everyone but dax thought it was a live ball. maxi attacked to steal it and dax took him out in a nasty way because he didn't think maxi should have gone after the ball even though it was live. even the nashville commentators said it was a live ball.

after the nasty tackle and maxi's retaliation, there was a large scuffle which included medina getting headlocked (but no punishments given for this) and the 2 red cards to dax and maxi, who both high fived each other as they walked to the locker room.

against the revs, we will be missing:

maxi - red
taty, cacha, medina - yellow cards

possibly missing depending on rest/fitness:
callens, chanot, sands, gudi

Taty and Acevedo just got good behavior incentives so it's only Maxi and Medina we're missing next week.

 

[JCMore]

I’m not really too beaten up about this game. But I do genuinely feel like we could have won this game with our starting back line and earlier subs from Ronny. I think the first 2 goals pulled the wind out of our sails and we never recovered. Which sucks because we definitely played a strong game up until that point. For some reason I remember Keaton dominating the midfield before the goals and being the lynchpin for the team. But after, he seemed to struggle to link up a forward pass or dribble without giving up the ball. And then many times I thought, “James Sands would have stopped this entire play for occurring.”

 

[mgarbowski]

I’m giving up on winning another road game this year. If it happens great, but I'm tired of watching new ways to self-sabotage or just have bad luck. We've dropped points via

• multiple long range bangers
• our goalkeeper making his first MLS start, leaving his line and failing to win the ball
• conceding a free kick to Zelarayan for the third time, which represents 43% of his goals for the season
• an opposing goalkeeper making his first professional start and dropping the first clean sheet over us in 25 games
• allowing 2 second half goals to a Toronto team that averages 1.18 goals per game and has not earned a point in 4 subsequent games
• having a roster so depleted we had 2 bench goalkeepers, missed 3/4 of our regular back line, conceding an own goal, and losing our DP attacking central mid to a double red card after a bizarre drop ball game restart incident leading to a fight between him and an opposing player who once scored 2 header goals in one game against us off of corner kicks despite being the shortest man on the field, who body tackled our DP who is somehow even shorter than him, and who then both greeted each other warmly as they exited the field. You know, the usual.

 

[Shwafta]

Whelp I'm glad I didn't watch that thing live. Skipped through it in about 10 minutes and am glad I did.

 

[moogoo]

Whelp I'm glad I didn't watch that thing live. Skipped through it in about 10 minutes and am glad I did.

to be very fair - we actually didn't play THAT terribly. our back line got caught out on long balls/through balls and they resulted in goals. For the most part, we controlled the midfield.. we created chances. we just weren't clinical. Santi had 2 chances he could have put away but just wasn't as sharp as his prior performances. IF we had finished our chances, I think we could have possibly taken 3 points. BUT it is what it is.

two notes - it was nice to see zalelem playing. I've been one to joke about how injured the poor kid is but he looked pretty decent with his touches. If he can stay fit, he could become a really solid Keaton backup going forward. It was also nice to see Magno get on the field again for more than 10 minutes. He looked active and hungry to get the ball. I hope he gets more minutes going forward so we can see him get match fit just in time the final games into the playoffs. Subs at 72 minutes were entirely too late, but the team looked lively once they came on.

 

[Shwafta]

to be very fair - we actually didn't play THAT terribly. our back line got caught out on long balls/through balls and they resulted in goals. For the most part, we controlled the midfield.. we created chances. we just weren't clinical. Santi had 2 chances he could have put away but just wasn't as sharp as his prior performances. IF we had finished our chances, I think we could have possibly taken 3 points. BUT it is what it is.

two notes - it was nice to see zalelem playing. I've been one to joke about how injured the poor kid is but he looked pretty decent with his touches. If he can stay fit, he could become a really solid Keaton backup going forward. It was also nice to see Magno get on the field again for more than 10 minutes. He looked active and hungry to get the ball. I hope he gets more minutes going forward so we can see him get match fit just in time the final games into the playoffs. Subs at 72 minutes were entirely too late, but the team looked lively once they came on.

I watched until the first goal and that's when i figured it was probably over and was gonna be our classic away performance where we play well but don't score. I can't do any analysis, but if we want to challenge in the playoffs, we NEED to perform better away. I don't know what it is about away games that make them so difficult in MLS in recent years, but we have to figure it out. Only a few years ago we boasted the best MLS away record.

 

[moogoo]

I watched until the first goal and that's when i figured it was probably over and was gonna be our classic away performance where we play well but don't score. I can't do any analysis, but if we want to challenge in the playoffs, we NEED to perform better away. I don't know what it is about away games that make them so difficult in MLS in recent years, but we have to figure it out. Only a few years ago we boasted the best MLS away record.

This is really the only really bad scoreline we've had away. Otherwise, we've drawn or lost by a goal. That's not terrible. In most of the away games, we have dominated most of the 90 mins but can't finish and/or fall apart for one reason or another (e.g., toronto).

What's missing/different? I hate to lay the blame all on not having a clinical striker. Especially since taty is our highest scorer and has been the only one scoring lately. If i had to give another reason, I would throw out there that perhaps our attack is not as in sync as it could be. Yes, our guys all train together, but having consistent attacking lineups might help though I understand the need to rotate so much with the way the schedule has been this year.

 

[FredMertz]

NYCFC is just like the Yankees. A very talented team with an incompetent manager that underperforms dramatically, but has brief streaks of brilliance that make us forget the consistent underperformance and incompetent manager.

 

[ZYanksRule]

NYCFC is just like the Yankees. A very talented team with an incompetent manager that underperforms dramatically, but has brief streaks of brilliance that make us forget the consistent underperformance and incompetent manager.

I don't know I agree that we are underperforming dramatically. On the road? Sure. But we are still a really good team. I would say, based on the preseason expectations, we are actually overperforming. People thought this might be a rebuilding year, and it turns out they have one of the best rosters in MLS. Results haven't been as good as we hope for, but things have been better lately.

 

[LionNYC]

With the back line that we knew we had going into the game, the best way to beat us would be switching the side of the field quickly and through balls/balls over the top. That’s exactly how Nashville scored all of their goals. And the lack of subs earlier in the match didn’t help either. Yeah Vuk messed up, but this one again is on Delia.

 

[sabertooth36]

I just cannot figure out why Deila doesn't make subs. We have a lot of talent on the roster, why does he constantly wait 70' minutes to make changes? Last game put a real spotlight on how changes in the 55'-60' could have made a difference. If Taty scores in the 65' rather than the 90', I think we can find a way back into the game before they score their 3rd.

I agree with moogoo that the lack of chemistry between our front-line players is leading to the scoring drought. Remember, it's the first season at the club for Santi, Thiago, and Talles. I'd hope to see better chemistry between Taty, Medina, and Moralez since they've been at the club multiple years, but there are a lot of new guys to integrate. I'm hoping we do well this season, but next season may be the Cup or bust season.

 

[mgarbowski]

and earlier subs from Ronny.

Subs at 72 minutes were entirely too late,

And the lack of subs earlier in the match didn’t help either.

I just cannot figure out why Deila doesn't make subs

This has been conventional wisdom all season. Delia makes his subs too late. I decided to run a comparison.

I averaged the playing minutes for all starters who were subbed off in 2019, and then did the same for 2021.*

Torrent's average substitution time was 73.50 minutes.
Deila's average substitution time is 73.92 minutes.

I understand that Deila gets more subs, but they both can only make subs at 3 times during the game, with the limited difference that Ronnie can also do so at minute 45, which he has done three times.

The bottom line is Ronnie's average sub time is less than half of one minute later than Domé did in 2019.

* I took a short cut I think is fair. I did not actually review every game, but I ran the average of all playing minutes between and including 45 and 89. Minutes below 45 likely mean either an injury or someone who came in as a sub. Minutes above 89 mean someone played the entire game. So I think this is a reasonable measurement. For the few times either made a sub at 45 minutes I also adjusted not to count both the starter and the sub.

ETA: I also realize some of the above comments were specific to this game, but this really has been a regular criticism all season.

 

[moogoo]

This has been conventional wisdom all season. Delia makes his subs too late. I decided to run a comparison.

I averaged the playing minutes for all starters who were subbed off in 2019, and then did the same for 2021.*

Torrent's average substitution time was 73.50 minutes.
Deila's average substitution time is 73.92 minutes.

I understand that Deila gets more subs, but they both can only make subs at 3 times during the game, with the limited difference that Ronnie can also do so at minute 45, which he has done three times.

The bottom line is Ronnie's average sub time is less than half of one minute later than Domé did in 2019.

* I took a short cut I think is fair. I did not actually review every game, but I ran the average of all playing minutes between and including 45 and 89. Minutes below 45 likely mean either an injury or someone who came in as a sub. Minutes above 89 mean someone played the entire game. So I think this is a reasonable measurement. For the few times either made a sub at 45 minutes I also adjusted not to count both the starter and the sub.

ETA: I also realize some of the above comments were specific to this game, but this really has been a regular criticism all season.

I don't think it's a fair comparison because Dome had 3 subs while Ronny has 5. That's a big difference in a professional game. For tired legs, you are less likely to make the sub when you only have 3 vs when you have 5 because you always have to think about a possible injury or maybe a late minute tactical change.

I also can't recall ever complaining about Dome not making subs at the right time. If he saw something that needed a change and/or tired legs, we most likely saw a sub made. It's been a bigger complaint with Ronny, whether it is because there are 5 subs allowed right now or because we're all itching to see more players get minutes than we have in the past.

while the latter is more of a eye/gut test, i think the number of subs makes this type of comparison a bit unfair.

 

[mgarbowski]

I don't think it's a fair comparison because Dome had 3 subs while Ronny has 5. That's a big difference in a professional game. For tired legs, you are less likely to make the sub when you only have 3 vs when you have 5 because you always have to think about a possible injury or maybe a late minute tactical change.

Lol.
This isn't personal, though it might seem so. Everyone does this. So far nobody else even bothered to respond, so I give you that.
But there's a reason I harp on confirmation bias and I mock eye tests.

I post an massively unexpected fact that completely undermines the standard wisdom, and I get exactly one response - written just 20 minutes later - that basically seizes on the single differential between 2019 and 2021 that I already pointed out, as being the obvious reason the data I presented makes an invalid comparison.

You don't even start with a perfunctory acknowledgment to pretend you actually thought about changing your mind, something like, "wow, that's surprising. I would have expected different, but having considered it I still think he makes them too late and here's why." You jump straight in to why you reject the data.

You don't address the 3-change window limit as if that were so irrelevant (which it's not) that it is not worth mentioning.
You don't claim to have expected that Ronnie is making subs at the same times Dome did. Or that everyone knew this, because that would be BS. Nobody expected this result. I didn't expect this result.
There has not been a conventional wisdom that Ronnie needs to make subs sooner because of the rule change.
Nobody has been saying that. It's just been that Ronnie makes subs late.

Let's be honest, everyone making this criticism thought Ronnie was making subs later than what has always been normal for soccer for the last decade.
Nobody, including me, even knows as of right now, whether Ronnie makes his subs at league average times for MLS 2021, or earlier or later. But the conventional wisdom that he makes them late will live on. Evidence and data just don't matter.
Generally, there are no articles anywhere -- with or without data -- I can find on how coaches have been or should be making changes sooner because of 5 subs. I looked pretty hard.
I can find no data or studies showing that coaches who adjusted to the change by making subs sooner have had more success, or less, or that it does not matter.
It's not something I have heard any announcers in any league saying or discussing.
I'm not aware of any coach who has said that the rule means you should make subs earlier.
Nobody thought about this concept until now when it becomes necessary to contrive a reason not to adjust opinions based on new facts.

It's not you, M moogoo. It's how the world operates, even me more than I would like to admit, and it's depressing, and sports is among the least of the reasons why.

 

[mgarbowski]

With the back line that we knew we had going into the game, the best way to beat us would be switching the side of the field quickly and through balls/balls over the top. That’s exactly how Nashville scored all of their goals. And the lack of subs earlier in the match didn’t help either. Yeah Vuk messed up, but this one again is on Delia.

Is there a tactical counter to switches and long balls when you have a poor mismatched back line? I'd like to know what that is.
Were there defensive subs available who could have helped?
Cody Mizell at CB maybe?

It just seems people want to blame Delia for (1) the fact that nobody but Taty has put the ball in net for an entire month, and (2) we had an untenable roster situation Saturday.

 

[Shwafta]

Lol.
This isn't personal, though it might seem so. Everyone does this. So far nobody else even bothered to respond, so I give you that.
But there's a reason I harp on confirmation bias and I mock eye tests.

I post an massively unexpected fact that completely undermines the standard wisdom, and I get exactly one response - written just 20 minutes later - that basically seizes on the single differential between 2019 and 2021 that I already pointed out, as being the obvious reason the data I presented makes an invalid comparison.

You don't even start with a perfunctory acknowledgment to pretend you actually thought about changing your mind, something like, "wow, that's surprising. I would have expected different, but having considered it I still think he makes them too late and here's why." You jump straight in to why you reject the data.

You don't address the 3-change window limit as if that were so irrelevant (which it's not) that it is not worth mentioning.
You don't claim to have expected that Ronnie is making subs at the same times Dome did. Or that everyone knew this, because that would be BS. Nobody expected this result. I didn't expect this result.
There has not been a conventional wisdom that Ronnie needs to make subs sooner because of the rule change.
Nobody has been saying that. It's just been that Ronnie makes subs late.

Let's be honest, everyone making this criticism thought Ronnie was making subs later than what has always been normal for soccer for the last decade.
Nobody, including me, even knows as of right now, whether Ronnie makes his subs at league average times for MLS 2021, or earlier or later. But the conventional wisdom that he makes them late will live on. Evidence and data just don't matter.
Generally, there are no articles anywhere -- with or without data -- I can find on how coaches have been or should be making changes sooner because of 5 subs. I looked pretty hard.
I can find no data or studies showing that coaches who adjusted to the change by making subs sooner have had more success, or less, or that it does not matter.
It's not something I have heard any announcers in any league saying or discussing.
I'm not aware of any coach who has said that the rule means you should make subs earlier.
Nobody thought about this concept until now when it becomes necessary to contrive a reason not to adjust opinions based on new facts.

It's not you, M moogoo. It's how the world operates, even me more than I would like to admit, and it's depressing, and sports is among the least of the reasons why.

I know you said it's not personal, and this next point isn't in a defensive manner: I'll be honest when I read your initial post, all I could think was "Wait, didn't we all also complain about how late Dome made or didn't make subs too?" and then I couldn't remember what I thought about the situation while Dome was in his bad form, so I decided to leave it be and not open Pandora's box. That being said, I do believe it was mentioned a lot during that period that people were unhappy with his subs as well. (Feel free anyone to correct me if I'm wrong - my memory sucks)

...Anyway your second half of the message made me curious, so I googled a bit and I found some interesting stuff:

When is the right time to make a substitution? | Soccermetrics Research, LLC

Advanced soccer analytics for the soccer (football) industry. Empowering soccer's data revolution.

www.soccermetrics.net

Statistically What’s The Best Time To Make Substitutions?

Arsenal fans know the drill on substitutions:the first one between 67 and 70 minutes and not a minute earlier. That’s the Wenger way. Usually just one at this early stage but sometimes two, w…

angryofislington.com

... And I think there is one line here that is kinda what you're saying?

In summary Myers’ research indicates that if you’re losing you have the best chance of turning the game around if you make your first substitution no later than 58 minutes in, the second by 73 minutes and the third by 79 minutes. Following this pattern can double your chances of turning a game around – though it should be said that you still have a less than even chance of managing it, because if you’re losing that’s usually for a reason.

I think people are just annoyed because "if we can see X, then surely coach sees X and would make a change??":
1. Lack of creativity. So they want a switch to bring a new brain onto the field and spark something. They want more time for the player on the field
2. Tired legs. The earlier the new player gets on, the less likely it is that the distribution of tired legs will be <very low>, and many times it's clear who has tired legs.
though of course, our brains don't work the same and Ronny's been coaching for many years, and he's using a different substitute strategy than we want.

 

[mgarbowski]

Of all the games to blame on late subs, this one makes the least sense.

The team is in a month long slump where only one player has scored.
We gave up 2 goals by minute 32 due to a patched together back line and had no defensive depth. I don't think anyone believes we should have made subs before we gave up those goals and once we did, we had, at best probably a 10-20% chance of winning given how little we score lately no matter how, when, or who Ronnie subs. I mean, sure, I could maybe get behind making a couple of subs at halftime to shake things up. Why not? But it's not a freaking cure-all and it sure as hell ain't the reason we lost. In any given game he players who start are generally the best ones available for that game and the earlier you sub them out the less they play. It's not some miraculous cure-all. But when your favorite tool is complaining about late subs I guess everything looks like a nail, or something.

Five people complained about late subs in this game. This game. Five.* In a game where the late sub complaint probably was less relevant than in any game this season. The forum makes the same damn complaints every game regardless of what actually happened. But "late subs" is this year's model, so have at it, I guess.

* There was one on an earlier page I didn't include on my previous post.

 

[Brooklyn Blue]

Of all the games to blame on late subs, this one makes the least sense.

The team is in a month long slump where only one player has scored.
We gave up 2 goals by minute 32 due to a patched together back line and had no defensive depth. I don't think anyone believes we should have made subs before we gave up those goals and once we did, we had, at best probably a 10-20% chance of winning given how little we score lately no matter how, when, or who Ronnie subs. I mean, sure, I could maybe get behind making a couple of subs at halftime to shake things up. Why not? But it's not a freaking cure-all and it sure as hell ain't the reason we lost. In any given game he players who start are generally the best ones available for that game and the earlier you sub them out the less they play. It's not some miraculous cure-all. But when your favorite tool is complaining about late subs I guess everything looks like a nail, or something.

Five people complained about late subs in this game. This game. Five.* In a game where the late sub complaint probably was less relevant than in any game this season. The forum makes the same damn complaints every game regardless of what actually happened. But "late subs" is this year's model, so have at it, I guess.

* There was one on an earlier page I didn't include on my previous post.

I appreciate the work on providing objective analysis regarding substitutions and timing. It does have me revisiting my position that Deila is too slow to make changes.

That noted - with acknowledgment as to it being subjective - my frustration with substitutions this year, as opposed to previous years, is threefold:

1) The schedule seems to be more congested this year. If so, it follows that the need for rotation is more important.

2) The team has more depth, especially on attack, this season. Substitutions are only good if there will be improvement, and there are more options for improvement with this squad’s depth. In past years, was bringing on Berget worth it?

3) Related to the above, the difference in ability between attackers is less pronounced. With Villa or Harrison there was less impetus to substitute when games were tight since 65% Villa was still better than 100% Mendoza. This year, however, there are games when it is clear Medina doesn’t have it and there is a faster Thiago or stronger Magno available to change an approach without loss of quality.

Beyond the above, and accepting my inherent bias, I believe earlier substitutions against Nashville - down 2 goals against a team missing its best defender - was worth the roll of the dice. Against Columbus earlier this year, with a gassed Gudi and Jasson (!) at fullback/wingback, I believe earlier substitutions would’ve prevented tired fouls leading to Zelarayan free kicks. The list goes on, but at some point when I smell smoke, I’m looking for a fire.