World Cup Qualifying - 2018 Russia
- Thread starter SoupInNYC
- Start date
Well and I think what this highlights for me, is that its becoming more and more important to not only qualify for the World Cup (obviously), but to do so well. For example, if we were to be performing on a level that Mexico is right now, which I believe we are fully capable of, we are looking at potentially sitting in Pot 2 instead of 3, and avoiding a potential group that contains one of the top teams along with Spain, Italy, Colombia, Uruguay, England and replacing them with Iran, Tunisia, Serbia.
ETA: And I say this not to talk down on the quality of those latter squads, or say we would handily beat them. But there is a difference in quality between the two groups.
No doubt, but my point was that a few of those pot3 (and even pot4) teams are ones that will turn a normal group into the group of death scenarios. I’d put us as one of them - if we’re firing on all cylinders, we are not a team the 1’s/2’s will want to play.
I thought Twellman was a bit full of himself last night when he said CONCACAF was the easiest federation to qualify from. I don’t think it’s the hardest by any stretch, but I’d say there are some others that are easier.
South America is probably the hardest with every country thrown together in a home/away scenario. There’s no protection for the best teams, hence Argentina is in trouble.
Africa is also very tough. They’re currently in groups where only the top team advances. There’s no room for error as a second place team.
CONCACAF is in the middle because it’s multi-layered with entry rounds and then the Hex. While there is a second chance playin for the fourth team, it’s not a gimme with the opponent coming from Asia and the distance involved. Add in the lack of 1st rate facilities in many countries (Stadium/fields, hotels, training areas for visiting teams, etc) and the heat/humidity of Central America, and away matches can be more than just daunting (whereas every Concacaf team visiting the US has access to 1st rate facilities).
UEFA is easier (for the top teams) because the way the groups are set up, there’s really only 1-2 serious contenders with the possibility of a 3rd, playing against some real gimme style teams at the bottom. With the majority of the second place teams getting a playin match, it’s easier for the top teams to make an early mistake and still feel reasonably secure.
Asia seems to be the easiest. There are few, if any, top teams that contend for more spots than they probably deserve (based of past WC performances), and with the largest federation, there are some real bottom dwellers in each group. They also have a second-place play-in (like UEFA) so even middle teams have a real shot. Some of he groups have one real team and 4 minnows. Granted, I’m not sure if the refs are any better than Concacaf refs, some crazy shit is allowed to go on in some YouTube replays, but I don’t think their refs allow the same hack/slash tactics that Concacaf refs allow the Central American teams to employ. It’s no wonder why Japan, South Korea, Iran always make it out - the void between them and the next in their groups is vast.
Won’t even rank Oceana because after New Zealand, there’s no other decent team, so it’s almost automatic that NZ gets to the play-in match vs another federation. Unfortunately the lack of competition typically hurts NZ when they get to this important match.
South America is probably the hardest with every country thrown together in a home/away scenario. There’s no protection for the best teams, hence Argentina is in trouble.
Africa is also very tough. They’re currently in groups where only the top team advances. There’s no room for error as a second place team.
CONCACAF is in the middle because it’s multi-layered with entry rounds and then the Hex. While there is a second chance playin for the fourth team, it’s not a gimme with the opponent coming from Asia and the distance involved. Add in the lack of 1st rate facilities in many countries (Stadium/fields, hotels, training areas for visiting teams, etc) and the heat/humidity of Central America, and away matches can be more than just daunting (whereas every Concacaf team visiting the US has access to 1st rate facilities).
UEFA is easier (for the top teams) because the way the groups are set up, there’s really only 1-2 serious contenders with the possibility of a 3rd, playing against some real gimme style teams at the bottom. With the majority of the second place teams getting a playin match, it’s easier for the top teams to make an early mistake and still feel reasonably secure.
Asia seems to be the easiest. There are few, if any, top teams that contend for more spots than they probably deserve (based of past WC performances), and with the largest federation, there are some real bottom dwellers in each group. They also have a second-place play-in (like UEFA) so even middle teams have a real shot. Some of he groups have one real team and 4 minnows. Granted, I’m not sure if the refs are any better than Concacaf refs, some crazy shit is allowed to go on in some YouTube replays, but I don’t think their refs allow the same hack/slash tactics that Concacaf refs allow the Central American teams to employ. It’s no wonder why Japan, South Korea, Iran always make it out - the void between them and the next in their groups is vast.
Won’t even rank Oceana because after New Zealand, there’s no other decent team, so it’s almost automatic that NZ gets to the play-in match vs another federation. Unfortunately the lack of competition typically hurts NZ when they get to this important match.
Tomorrow, only UEFA games happening.
- Poland advances with a win/draw against Montenegro OR a Denmark loss/draw against Romania
- Denmark advances with a win against Romania AND a Poland loss against Montenegro
- Montenegro is eliminated with a loss/draw at Poland OR a Denmark loss/draw against Romania
- Slovakia is eliminated with a loss/draw against Malta OR a Scotland win at Slovenia
- Slovenia is eliminated with a loss/draw against Scotland OR a Slovakia win against Malta
- Scotland is eliminated with a loss/draw against Slovenia AND a Slovakia win against Malta
Costa Rica did the USA a huge favor with that 95th minute equaliser. A draw is now enough against T&T to qualify.
Honduras will be kicking themselves for dropping 4 points, to late equalisers, in their last two games.
Honduras will be kicking themselves for dropping 4 points, to late equalisers, in their last two games.
Yesterday was a long day so no update was provided. Over yesterday and today:
Qualified: Poland, Egypt, Serbia, and Iceland.
Eliminated: Cyprus, Estonia, Montenegro, Scotland, Slovenia, Uganda, Ghana, Wales, and Ukraine, Bosnia.
At the moment, the following teams have secured UEFA playoff spots: Northern Ireland, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, and Croatia. The second place finishers in both Groups A and B will take two of the remaining spots as they both already have more points than Slovakia does.
If Greece beats Gibraltar tomorrow, they clinch the last playoff spot. If Greece loses or draws, Slovakia takes it.
ETA above, Bosnia was eliminated today as they cannot receive enough points to surpass Slovakia for the playoff
Qualified: Poland, Egypt, Serbia, and Iceland.
Eliminated: Cyprus, Estonia, Montenegro, Scotland, Slovenia, Uganda, Ghana, Wales, and Ukraine, Bosnia.
At the moment, the following teams have secured UEFA playoff spots: Northern Ireland, Ireland, Denmark, Italy, and Croatia. The second place finishers in both Groups A and B will take two of the remaining spots as they both already have more points than Slovakia does.
If Greece beats Gibraltar tomorrow, they clinch the last playoff spot. If Greece loses or draws, Slovakia takes it.
ETA above, Bosnia was eliminated today as they cannot receive enough points to surpass Slovakia for the playoff
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Tomorrow, a lot going on. I've already highlighted the CONMEBOL scenarios earlier in this thread. Really wish those games weren't overlapping with the USA match because I'd love to watch what's going on there.
The second leg of the AFC qualifier is on in the morning with Australia hosting Syria. Series is at 1-1 and Australia currently has 1 away goal (obviously)
CONCACAF:
The second leg of the AFC qualifier is on in the morning with Australia hosting Syria. Series is at 1-1 and Australia currently has 1 away goal (obviously)
CONCACAF:
- USA advances with a win/draw at T&T. Technically a draw wouldn't be enough on its own, but the current GD advantage the USA has nearly makes this a moot point. USA also advances with a Panama loss/draw to Costa Rica
- Panama advances with a win against Costa Rica AND a USA loss at T&T
- Panama is eliminated with a loss/draw against Costa Rica AND a Honduras win against Mexico.
- Honduras is eliminated with a loss/draw against Mexico OR a Panama win against Costa Rica
- France advances with a win against Belarus OR a Sweden loss at Netherlands OR a draw against Belarus AND a Sweden loss/draw at Netherlands
- Sweden advances with a win at Netherlands AND a France loss/draw against Belarus OR a draw at Netherlands AND a France loss against Belarus
- Netherlands are effectively eliminated due to their goal differential disadvantage with Sweden.
- Switzerland advances with a win/draw at Portugal (this would also give the Swiss a perfect 10-0-0 record in qualifying)
- Portugal advances with a win against Switzerland
- Greece is eliminated with a loss against Gibraltar AND a Bosnia win at Estonia
- Greece is also eliminated with a draw against Gibraltar as they would not qualify for the playoff with enough points.
- Bosnia was actually eliminated today with other results for second place teams as they cannot finish with enough points to surpass Slovakia.
Good stuff. So happy to see Iceland advance.
I see that the UEFA Playoff draw will be seeded by FIFA ranking, with the Top 4 facing off against the bottom 4 in random order. The following assumes that France wins Group A over Sweden and Greece beats Gibralter, keeping out Slovakia.
Pot 1
Portugal or Switzerland
Italy
Croatia
Northern Ireland
Pot 2
Sweden
Denmark
Ireland
Greece
Under the above, the most likely outcome, there is a 25% chance of an Ireland vs. Northern Ireland matchup.
If France falls to 2nd place below Sweden, then they would be in Pot 1, and Northern Ireland would move down to Pot 2.
I see that the UEFA Playoff draw will be seeded by FIFA ranking, with the Top 4 facing off against the bottom 4 in random order. The following assumes that France wins Group A over Sweden and Greece beats Gibralter, keeping out Slovakia.
Pot 1
Portugal or Switzerland
Italy
Croatia
Northern Ireland
Pot 2
Sweden
Denmark
Ireland
Greece
Under the above, the most likely outcome, there is a 25% chance of an Ireland vs. Northern Ireland matchup.
If France falls to 2nd place below Sweden, then they would be in Pot 1, and Northern Ireland would move down to Pot 2.
it is not done by FIFA ranking. Here is how its done. http://www.uefa.com/european-qualifiers/news/newsid=2506867.html
EDIT: For those too lazy to click the link, pertinent info:
All nine group winners qualify automatically. The eight best runners-up with the best records against the sides first, third, fourth and fifth in their groups go into the play-offs for UEFA's remaining four berths (the exclusion of results against sixth-placed sides was retained to alleviate any possible imbalance between the qualifying groups caused by the late introduction of Gibraltar and Kosovo).
With matches against the bottom side in the six-team groups discounted, the runners-up are ranked by the following criteria, in this order, as per FIFA competition regulations, article 20 paragraph 6, criteria a), b), c), then h) and i):
1 Highest number of points
2 Best goal difference
3 Highest number of goals scored
4 Fair play points (first yellow card -1pts; second yellow card/indirect red card -3pts; direct red card -4pts; yellow card, direct red card -5pts)
5 Drawing of lots
Ha! You need to read farther down!
The eight best group runners-up enter a draw for the four play-offs held in Zurich on 17 October, starting at 14:00CET. Teams will be seeded according to the FIFA rankings published the previous day, with the highest-ranked quartet in Pot 1 and the remaining sides in Pot 2.
To be fair, I had gotten my original info off of Wikipedia and was fairly convinced I had screwed up for that reason.
There is one flaw in my analysis, which is that I am using current FIFA rankings, which could change things a bit next week. As it stands, Northern Ireland is 20th, so possible that Sweden (23) could pass them.
Panama is not going to beat Costa Rica by 8 goals. Honduras is not going to beat Mexico by 12 goals. We advance with a tie.
I think you can say it's pretty safe it wont happen
"They won't win 8-0. What a stupid question that is."
[For those unaware, Sweden then went ahead and beat Luxembourg by exactly 8-0, essentially eliminating the Netherlands from qualification unless NED beats SWE 7-0.]