2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Ulrich]

• We started the season with 7 points in 8 games. That's 0.88 PPG and a cume of 1.05 PPG in 42 games with last season. Since then we are at 1.93 PPG over 15 games.
• We also started the season with 18 points in the first 15 games for 1.20 PPG and 1.12 over 49 games cume with last year. Since then we won 18 points in 8 games for 2.25 PPG.
• In 2014, New England had a 1.15 PPG over its first 20 games which featured both a 5-game winning streak and an 8-game losing streak. They finished with 2.29 PPG over the last 14 and 55 points overall.
• Last year when we were in a truly hopeless situation people sometimes pointed to the 2014 Revs as a reason to hope, but at our best we were barely as good as them at their worst. This year we kind of look like them if you take your glasses off and squint a little.
• We have a 3-game Home winning streak.
• We had 6 Draws in the first 14 games, and none in the last 9.
• We are 4-2-0 against the West 2.0 PPG.
• We are 6-5-6 against the East 1.41 PPG.
• So if we were in the West we'd be in 1st Place of that tough conference, just like we're in the middle of the East table.... Oh wait, it doesn't work that way.
• We are 4-3-5 at Home 1.41 PPG.
• We are 6-4-1 on the Road 1.73 PPG.
• Our Goal Differential against the entire league excluding NJRB is +8.
• Our GD against the West is +5. The rest of the East against the West is -18.
• Last week there were 4 teams capable of catching us with the help of just one NYCFC loss or less. Toronto kept pace, but Philly lost, and Montreal and NJRB drew. So we now have a minimally bigger cushion, but spots 1 through 5 in the table are really quite tight and the team cannot afford to start dropping points. Plus the Impact and Red Bull draws were on the road and both were earned with goals after the 85-minute mark. This was not a bad week of East Conference results but it was not as good as it nearly was, or should have been.
• Right now we sit top of the East with projected 53 points. The last time the East winner had that few points was SKC in 2011 with 51 (the first year they played 34 games). The next lowest East winners since then had 59 points.
• View attachment 5471
  
• My what-we-need-to-do chart doesn't even go up to 59, but figure we need to win 7 or 8 of the remaining 11.
• View attachment 5472

Think on this: we could get to 50 points with a losing record here on out.

It's laziness not to have a row in your chart for winning all 11 games.

 

[mgarbowski]

It's laziness not to have a row in your chart for winning all 11 games.

36 points plus 33 more = Angelino.

 

[Ulrich]

36 points plus 33 more = Angelino.

I'd prefer a Tony Taylor but that's another season with more of PV's Invincibles rubbing off.

 

[LionNYC]

I'd prefer a Tony Taylor but that's another season with more of PV's Invincibles rubbing off.

It's actually mathematically impossible to get 99 points in an MLS season and not lose a game. 33-1-0 is the only combination.

 

[Ulrich]

It's actually mathematically impossible to get 99 points in an MLS season and not lose a game. 33-1-0 is the only combination.

Did I say we'd be invincible or that the Invincibles would rub off on us?

 

[Seven]

Seven point back. 2 wins and 1 tie. That's tough to ask for

Correct. It's 7 points and not the 9 I somehow wrote. Still a big ask as you note.

mlssoccer.com standings has them now 6 back of us after their win. So it would have been 9. Right?

 

[mgarbowski]

mlssoccer.com standings has them now 6 back of us after their win. So it would have been 9. Right?

You're right and I noticed that too. I don't know what was going on earlier this evening. Right now we have 36 pts, they have 30, and we played 23 to their 21. And they won tonight. So yes it was , or should have been?

 

[Ulrich]

mlssoccer.com standings has them now 6 back of us after their win. So it would have been 9. Right?

You're right and I noticed that too. I don't know what was going on earlier this evening. Right now we have 36 pts, they have 30, and we played 23 to their 21. And they won tonight. So yes it was , or should have been?

Except that Montreal Tied DC tonight so they got only 1pt taking them to 6 behind us.

 

[mgarbowski]

Except that Montreal Tied DC tonight so they got only 1pt taking them to 6 behind us.

I thought we were talking about Toronto

 

[Ulrich]

I thought we were talking about Toronto

And you say you're a lawyer???

 

[mgarbowski]

While it takes 3 things to go perfect for them, Toronto can catch us this week.. They are 6 points back (I'm quite sure this time) and play two games this week. If they win both and we lose in San Jose, we'll be tied and have the same number of wins. They would be ahead of us on Goal Differential. Both of their games are at home. Midweek they host RSL, who have done well on the road against the East, but coming off their win in Philadelphia yesterday they either will do a lot of travel in a short time or spend the half-week away from home and their regular training routine. Either hurts them. I'm worried about Toronto more than the Union so I'm really hoping RSL can pull out another result here. Toronto then plays the Revs Saturday night. New England will be rested but Toronto has no travel and the Revs are not so good.

For the record, I rank our Eastern rivals in order as
Toronto, just slightly ahead of
Montreal
NYRB
Philadelphia, who are slipping, then a much larger gap to
Orlando, who I think will make the playoffs but has <1% chance of finishing first, and
the rest who don't make the playoffs.

I think it pretty unlikely we finish lower than third and are at about 60% to finish First or Second and skip the first round of the playoffs.

 

[SoupInNYC]

While it takes 3 things to go perfect for them, Toronto can catch us this week.. They are 6 points back (I'm quite sure this time) and play two games this week. If they win both and we lose in San Jose, we'll be tied and have the same number of wins. They would be ahead of us on Goal Differential. Both of their games are at home. Midweek they host RSL, who have done well on the road against the East, but coming off their win in Philadelphia yesterday they either will do a lot of travel in a short time or spend the half-week away from home and their regular training routine. Either hurts them. I'm worried about Toronto more than the Union so I'm really hoping RSL can pull out another result here. Toronto then plays the Revs Saturday night. New England will be rested but Toronto has no travel and the Revs are not so good.

For the record, I rank our Eastern rivals in order as
Toronto, just slightly ahead of
Montreal
NJRB
Philadelphia, who are slipping, then a much larger gap to
Orlando, who I think will make the playoffs but has <1% chance of finishing first, and
the rest who don't make the playoffs.

I think it pretty unlikely we finish lower than third and are at about 60% to finish First or Second and skip the first round of the playoffs.

And I know Orlando has not had a great year, but that's a team that I would hate to see in the playoffs. With some of the offensive talent they have on that team along with Larin's ability to always kill us.

I think I would have to take a nice vacation from this board if we were to lose to Kreis and Orlando in the playoffs.

 

[canchon]

While it takes 3 things to go perfect for them, Toronto can catch us this week.. They are 6 points back (I'm quite sure this time) and play two games this week. If they win both and we lose in San Jose, we'll be tied and have the same number of wins. They would be ahead of us on Goal Differential. Both of their games are at home. Midweek they host RSL, who have done well on the road against the East, but coming off their win in Philadelphia yesterday they either will do a lot of travel in a short time or spend the half-week away from home and their regular training routine. Either hurts them. I'm worried about Toronto more than the Union so I'm really hoping RSL can pull out another result here. Toronto then plays the Revs Saturday night. New England will be rested but Toronto has no travel and the Revs are not so good.

It's not far fetched to see Toronto even with NY by this weekend. The mid-week travel is going to kill RSL and given that they won this weekend at Philly, odds say they don't pull two straight wins on the road. NE is also awful on the road with only 7 pts from 11 games.

The silver lining is that after these two home games Toronto will have played 11 at home and 12 away, so almost caught up from the huge road trip at the beginning of the year.

 

[mgarbowski]

It's not far fetched to see Toronto even with NY by this weekend. The mid-week travel is going to kill RSL and given that they won this weekend at Philly, odds say they don't pull two straight wins on the road. NE is also awful on the road with only 7 pts from 11 games.

The silver lining is that after these two home games Toronto will have played 11 at home and 12 away, so almost caught up from the huge road trip at the beginning of the year.

Toronto's schedule is so weird, and more imbalanced than ours. Ours evened up last week, and we never go more than +/-1 H/A the rest of the year. As you point out TOR almost but not quite gets even this week, but then 4 of their next 5 are on the road, and then they finish with 5 of their last 6 at home. And their opponents in those last 5 home games are terrible on the road. If Toronto can get through the 4 of 5 Away stretch and are close to us with 6 remaining they will be in very good shape.

 

[Ulrich]

It's not far fetched to see Toronto even with NY by this weekend. The mid-week travel is going to kill RSL and given that they won this weekend at Philly, odds say they don't pull two straight wins on the road. NE is also awful on the road with only 7 pts from 11 games.

The silver lining is that after these two home games Toronto will have played 11 at home and 12 away, so almost caught up from the huge road trip at the beginning of the year.

Giovinco, meet Nick Rimando.

 

[mgarbowski]

Giovinco, meet Nick Rimando.

???

 

[ALBNYfan]

???

RSL's goalkeeper and MLS leader in shutouts and now tied for most wins...

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...career-saves-and-highlights-mls?autoplay=true

 

[Gotham Gator]

While it takes 3 things to go perfect for them, Toronto can catch us this week.. They are 6 points back (I'm quite sure this time) and play two games this week. If they win both and we lose in San Jose, we'll be tied and have the same number of wins. They would be ahead of us on Goal Differential. Both of their games are at home. Midweek they host RSL, who have done well on the road against the East, but coming off their win in Philadelphia yesterday they either will do a lot of travel in a short time or spend the half-week away from home and their regular training routine. Either hurts them. I'm worried about Toronto more than the Union so I'm really hoping RSL can pull out another result here. Toronto then plays the Revs Saturday night. New England will be rested but Toronto has no travel and the Revs are not so good.

For the record, I rank our Eastern rivals in order as
Toronto, just slightly ahead of
Montreal
NJRB
Philadelphia, who are slipping, then a much larger gap to
Orlando, who I think will make the playoffs but has <1% chance of finishing first, and
the rest who don't make the playoffs.

I think it pretty unlikely we finish lower than third and are at about 60% to finish First or Second and skip the first round of the playoffs.

I basically agree with this list. The Canadian teams seem the most likely to make a run to end the season and then in the playoffs.

 

[mgarbowski]

RSL's goalkeeper and MLS leader in shutouts and now tied for most wins...

http://www.mlssoccer.com/post/2016/...career-saves-and-highlights-mls?autoplay=true

Still not getting the Giovinco meet Rimando reference. Is it the idea that AA will rack up lots of individual achievements but never win a cup at Toronto?

 

[Ulrich]

Still not getting the Giovinco meet Rimando reference. Is it the idea that AA will rack up lots of individual achievements but never win a cup at Toronto?

It means that Toronto's game against RSL is no gimme, even with the prolonged road trip that RSL is on, because Giovinco/Toronto has to beat Nick Rimando - who should not be affected by travel/congested schedule, and as already noted is an MLS badass.