Oh. That simple: Me, meet dense. Dense, this is me. More familiar lately for some reason.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Any thoughts on the impact of Bedoya in, Dax out, Bradley stays?
I think our path over NJ is now a damn good bet. But have the odds changed significantly on beating Philly to the finish line?
I think our path over NJ is now a damn good bet. But have the odds changed significantly on beating Philly to the finish line?
We don't have to beat Philly to the finish line anymore. Just maintain our lead. It's a lot easier to maintain pace than push ahead.
For me, my numerical analyses in this thread specifically are not heavily based on player comings and goings, although any major shock will cause me to check and reconsider my confidence. putting that bias aside, I still don't see the Dax and Bradley news t change my opinion overall. I had RB slotted into a probably 3rd to 5th place finish and they're still there. Their outside chance of ending in 1st or 2nd did get lower, but it was low for me anyway.
I've considered Toronto our greatest threat for a few weeks now -- all of them with Bradley injured -- so his iminent return and non-departure only solidify that.
Bedoya I cannot really answer. Too much unknown for me, having only watched him on the USMNT. Total wildcard for me to guess how he will fit into and change Philadelphia. They've struggled lately (1-4-1) and could use a spark so a move of this nature makes sense. But they have 7 Away games left against 5 Home, and they have just 1 Away win to date.
It's a really good move by Philly, but it will take time for him to fully join the team. Might pay dividends in the playoffs. They are a good team, but I have my doubts about them being elite.
As for RBNJ, Dax is only out 4-6 weeks, so he is back sometime in September and should be full go by season's end. Might hurt their seeding, however. That team has its flaws - its best wins have been over us, and that has to do with matchup more than quality.
I still think our biggest competition in the East comes from the two teams in Canada. They are 2nd and 3rd in PPG. Toronto in particular is just starting to get healthy again. They've got a solid defense, and with Bradley, Jozy and Gio, they will score goals. They also have an easy schedule the rest of the way.
There are 5 teams in the East capable of winning the conference. That means getting a Top 2 seed is crucial to avoid a potential early exit in a first round knockout game. Barring that, good to finish 3rd in order to get the last seed (Orlando, New England), who will be a cut below #4 and #5.
As for RBNJ, Dax is only out 4-6 weeks, so he is back sometime in September and should be full go by season's end. Might hurt their seeding, however. That team has its flaws - its best wins have been over us, and that has to do with matchup more than quality.
I still think our biggest competition in the East comes from the two teams in Canada. They are 2nd and 3rd in PPG. Toronto in particular is just starting to get healthy again. They've got a solid defense, and with Bradley, Jozy and Gio, they will score goals. They also have an easy schedule the rest of the way.
There are 5 teams in the East capable of winning the conference. That means getting a Top 2 seed is crucial to avoid a potential early exit in a first round knockout game. Barring that, good to finish 3rd in order to get the last seed (Orlando, New England), who will be a cut below #4 and #5.
To me, philly has been awful since they lost noguiera right before they played us. Bedoya is perfect replacement for them and I expect a return to their previous form.
I almost soiled my armor.
Just opened an email from the team inviting me to "Lock down your playoff tickets!"
Rather that given the opportunity to by any potential playoff tickets, it was a come on to purchase season tickets for the remainder of the year.
A crummy commercial.
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This is the Historic Season Two equivalent of the Historic Season One Founding Member marketing campaign.
I almost soiled my armor.
Just opened an email from the team inviting me to "Lock down my playoff tickets!"
Rather that given the opportunity to by any potential playoff tickets, it was a come on to purchase season tickets for the remainder of the season.
A crummy commercial.
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From the highlights, it looked like RSL should have put what seemed to be five goals on the board, while TFC got sort of lucky winning.
the other wile card for philly is that beodyas former ranger teammate and nter maurice edu is about to come back. i think you see both in the holding role of the 4231 with bedoya more of an 8 and edu more of a 6.
Hasn't Edu played mostly CB for them recently? Does he still have the legs to play CDM?
IIRC that was out of need like when we played Jacobson at CB last year.
Philly also just picked up Charlie Davies from the Revs. Would have loved to have him as a backup striker.
Average points per game for remaining opponents of the five major contenders in the East.
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For context, average PPG for MLS as a whole is 1.338. For the East it is 1.264, and for the West it is 1.410.
We don't play any of the other 4 contenders again this season. Our next 4 games average 1.285 ppg. The 3 after that 1.37 ppg (but that's all Dallas). The last 3 average 0.963 ppg.
Montreal and Philly have the toughest closing stretches.
We have the most games remaining against teams at 1.1ppg or lower with 6. Toronto has 4, and Montreal, New Jersey and Philly each have 3.
If you take away our games against LA and Dallas, our average ppg for the other 9 is 1.062, and none of those other 9 opponents are above the red line right now. Besides us, the only other team with any games against the Big 3 from the West is New Jersey, who play at LA this weekend.
Montreal and Philly have the toughest closing stretches.
We have the most games remaining against teams at 1.1ppg or lower with 6. Toronto has 4, and Montreal, New Jersey and Philly each have 3.
If you take away our games against LA and Dallas, our average ppg for the other 9 is 1.062, and none of those other 9 opponents are above the red line right now. Besides us, the only other team with any games against the Big 3 from the West is New Jersey, who play at LA this weekend.
Good stuff
Gotham Gator.
In a conference in which 7 out of 10 teams have 1 or 0 road wins,* I would also note that the H/A breakdown for each contender is NYC 5/6, TOR 7/5, NYRB 6/5, PHI 5/7, and MTL 7/6. Combine that with the info you provided above and I think Philly has the toughest schedule, and Toronto's H/A split pushes their schedule closer to ours in terms of ease.
Finally I did a really granular comparison of Toronto's schedule to ours. We have 4 identical games, same opponent and same H/A. We have one (NER) where we play the same team, but at Home for Toronto and Away for us. That's a slight advantage Toronto but we can certainly win in New England. That leaves 7 Toronto games and 6 NYCFC that don't overlap at all. Of their 7, 5 are against current playoff teams, with 3 Home and 2 Away. Of our 6, 2 are against current playoff teams with 2 Home.
Toronto's toughest games are Philly and Montreal Away, then Philly Montreal and Red Bulls at Home. Ours are probably SJ Away and FCD and LAG at Home. Advantage us I think.
And since people like to consider multi-game weeks. We have none. Toronto had one this week and 2 more. But the schedule makers were still kind to Toronto. This week their travel was Home-Home-Home. The next one is PHI-ORL-Home(v MTL). And the last one for Toronto is Home-Home-Home. So while their roster gets stretched they are not not getting killed with crazy travel.
* We have 6, TOR has 3 and MTL has 2.
Gotham Gator.In a conference in which 7 out of 10 teams have 1 or 0 road wins,* I would also note that the H/A breakdown for each contender is NYC 5/6, TOR 7/5, NYRB 6/5, PHI 5/7, and MTL 7/6. Combine that with the info you provided above and I think Philly has the toughest schedule, and Toronto's H/A split pushes their schedule closer to ours in terms of ease.
Finally I did a really granular comparison of Toronto's schedule to ours. We have 4 identical games, same opponent and same H/A. We have one (NER) where we play the same team, but at Home for Toronto and Away for us. That's a slight advantage Toronto but we can certainly win in New England. That leaves 7 Toronto games and 6 NYCFC that don't overlap at all. Of their 7, 5 are against current playoff teams, with 3 Home and 2 Away. Of our 6, 2 are against current playoff teams with 2 Home.
Toronto's toughest games are Philly and Montreal Away, then Philly Montreal and Red Bulls at Home. Ours are probably SJ Away and FCD and LAG at Home. Advantage us I think.
And since people like to consider multi-game weeks. We have none. Toronto had one this week and 2 more. But the schedule makers were still kind to Toronto. This week their travel was Home-Home-Home. The next one is PHI-ORL-Home(v MTL). And the last one for Toronto is Home-Home-Home. So while their roster gets stretched they are not not getting killed with crazy travel.
* We have 6, TOR has 3 and MTL has 2.
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I said we have the easiest schedule left in MLS (except if you count Toronto's home field advantage). Thank you for providing the numbers to back up my point.
Games remaining between the Top 5.
NYCFC: None
Toronto: at Philly, vs. Montreal, vs. RBNJ, vs. Philly, at Montreal
Montreal: at Toronto, at NJRB, at Philly, at NJRB, vs. Toronto
New Jersey: vs. Montreal, at Toronto, vs. Montreal, vs. Philly, at Philly
Philadelphia: vs. Toronto, vs. Montreal, at Toronto, at NJRB, vs. NJRB
NYCFC finished its games against the other four contenders 3-3-3.
NYCFC: None
Toronto: at Philly, vs. Montreal, vs. RBNJ, vs. Philly, at Montreal
Montreal: at Toronto, at NJRB, at Philly, at NJRB, vs. Toronto
New Jersey: vs. Montreal, at Toronto, vs. Montreal, vs. Philly, at Philly
Philadelphia: vs. Toronto, vs. Montreal, at Toronto, at NJRB, vs. NJRB
NYCFC finished its games against the other four contenders 3-3-3.
Good stuff
And since people like to consider multi-game weeks. We have none. Toronto had one this week and 2 more. But the schedule makers were still kind to Toronto. This week their travel was Home-Home-Home. The next one is PHI-ORL-Home(v MTL). And the last one for Toronto is Home-Home-Home. So while their roster gets stretched they are not not getting killed with crazy travel.
So what you are saying is that the guy who figures out the schedule is a TFC fan?
This is the same league that scheduled NYC at Portland, then at Toronto mid-week, and then coming home to face RBNY. Jeez.
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