2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers

[Gotham Gator]

We don't have any more midweek games - at least that are followed by a game the following weekend.

Out of curiosity, I checked to see if we have any more games where we play another team that just played midweek. There is one on the schedule and one interesting possibility.

First, we play at Orlando on Sunday, August 28, which is right after Orlando comes off a game at Colorado on Saturday, August 19, followed by one at home against Toronto on Wednesday. They will still have 3 rest days in between, however.

Another interesting possibility is our game hosting Chicago on Friday, September 23. The Fire are in the U.S. Open Cup semi-finals, and if they can beat the Revolution in the semi-final match next month, then they will host the Final on Wednesday, September 21. I have no idea if the league would move the date on that game, but I have my doubts, as it is a national TV game on Unimas. So, we know for whom to root in the U.S. Open Cup semis.

 

[FootyLovin]

unlike NYC24 I think predictions are hard, especially when they concern the future.

I prefer to predict the past. And I'm awesome at it.

 

[FootyLovin]

One element that is missing from all the calculus on this thread is a particular personnel question.

If there is no movement of a certain #10 by next week and assuming his sitting is about trade attempts rather than chateau bow wow, does the addition of a hopefully uber-motivated Mix either back into the XI for some games and/or coming off the bench improve our chances even further?

Also, what about the Bradley/Serie A rumors? Is that happening? And does it basically knock one more team out of contention for the top spots if TOR don't make a great signing at the same time?

 

[Rimil]

I predict the future for a living, and think I'm pretty good at it.

I am saying NYCFC is >70% to make the playoffs. That's a pretty strong favorite. I would bet up to 20% of my net worth on it.

I am not rooting against them. But I am mentally prepared for the <30% the team doesn't make the playoffs and the 10% probability (included in the <30%) the club absolutely implodes from this point forward due to tactical inflexibility, advanced age of key players and lack of squad depth.

You are saying they are greater than 70% to make it, and the market is saying 90% (I haven't confirmed that personally, but taking your word on it). So ya, the market agrees with you an more so.

If you think fair is pay 70 cents to make a dollar, you are away from the market and won't be getting filled my man.

However, on the inverse of that market, I would very willing to collect 30c and pay the full dollar if they don't make the playoffs. I think 30% is wrong. I think that's wrong personally and I have the backing of the markets. Were you to sell it to me I could arb you and guarantee myself 20c payout. However on a small bet i'd just hold it outright cause I think you're mis-priced.

90% to make playoffs feels fair to me, and I'd even be inclined to buy. That's my opinion. None of this is a solicitation to bet.

 

[NYC24]

You are saying they are greater than 70% to make it, and the market is saying 90% (I haven't confirmed that personally, but taking your word on it). So ya, the market agrees with you an more so.

If you think fair is pay 70 cents to make a dollar, you are away from the market and won't be getting filled my man.

However, on the inverse of that market, I would very willing to collect 30c and pay the full dollar if they don't make the playoffs. I think 30% is wrong. I think that's wrong personally and I have the backing of the markets. Were you to sell it to me I could arb you and guarantee myself 20c payout. However on a small bet i'd just hold it outright cause I think you're mis-priced.

90% to make playoffs feels fair to me, and I'd even be inclined to buy. That's my opinion. None of this is a solicitation to bet.

71% is quite a bit lower than 90%, as I am a lot more pessimistic than most of you and the MLS playoffs odds sites I have seen. These are not betting sites as far as I know.

The comment I made about the size of bet I would be willing to make is simply to point out how big a favorite 71% still is, even if it's way lower than 90%. My comment assumes an even money bet, which of course I would never find.

I like your post. Gambling and market making talk is good.

For clarification sake, I am a Tech Stock analyst. My job is to predict things that could happen, but it's not necessarily to set odds and make gambling markets. You appear to be more up on those aspects of the trade than I.

 

[FootyLovin]

The comment I made about the size of bet I would be willing to make is simply to point out how big a favorite 71% still is, even if it's way lower than 90%.

Or it could have been a comment on the small size of your net worth.

#ohdip

 

[NYC24]

Or it could have been a comment on the small size of your net worth.

#ohdip

Don't you sit behind the goal? Don't think I'd trade with you.

Now LionNYC, maybe I'd trade with him. I work too hard.

 

[LionNYC]

71% is quite a bit lower than 90%, as I am a lot more pessimistic than most of you and the MLS playoffs odds sites I have seen. These are not betting sites as far as I know.

The comment I made about the size of bet I would be willing to make is simply to point out how big a favorite 71% still is, even if it's way lower than 90%. My comment assumes an even money bet, which of course I would never find.

I like your post. Gambling and market making talk is good.

For clarification sake, I am a Tech Stock analyst. My job is to predict things that could happen, but it's not necessarily to set odds and make gambling markets. You appear to be more up on those aspects of the trade than I.

Don't you sit behind the goal? Don't think I'd trade with you.

Now LionNYC, maybe I'd trade with him. I work too hard.

RDCM, you're welcome...

 

[NYC24]

Or it could have been a comment on the small size of your net worth.

#ohdip

In all seriousness, the size of one's bankroll should have no bearing on the # of units they are willing to wager on a given oppty.

 

[mgarbowski]

In all seriousness, the size of one's bankroll should have no bearing on the # of units they are willing to wager on a given oppty.

Well, at some levels, losing 20% of your net worth (your original figures) would be devastating. I wouldn't advise putting 20% one one play no matter how likely for those folks.

 

[NYC24]

Well, at some levels, losing 20% of your net worth (your original figures) would be devastating. I wouldn't advise putting 20% one one play no matter how likely for those folks.

I completely disagree. It's not devastating because you have 80% remaining if you lose. In fact, the larger the original amount the less devastating. It might feel bad to lose $2bn if you started with $10bn, but you still have $8bn left. Losing $2 if you only started with $10 is probably worse in terms of lifestyle implications.

 

[SoupInNYC]

One element that is missing from all the calculus on this thread is a particular personnel question.

If there is no movement of a certain #10 by next week and assuming his sitting is about trade attempts rather than chateau bow wow, does the addition of a hopefully uber-motivated Mix either back into the XI for some games and/or coming off the bench improve our chances even further?

Also, what about the Bradley/Serie A rumors? Is that happening? And does it basically knock one more team out of contention for the top spots if TOR don't make a great signing at the same time?

I think if Mix was not to be moved, he has to be in the 18 going forward and he would make us better. Now if it is better enough to really move the needle, considering our crowded midfield? I'm not certain.

But a good point re: Michael Bradley and I'll also throw out a few additional items:

We have 2 games remaining with DC United, who just lost Fabian Espindola
We have a home game with Dallas, who just lost Fabian Castillo
We have 1 game remaining against Orlando, who has rumors around Cyle Larin leaving

 

[Albany_NYCFC]

Found this website www.playoffstatus.com while researching the 2016 playoff schedule and thought you might like it. Give probabilities of playoff positions for all teams. Doesn't include today's game but the numbers look mighty fine!!!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html

 

[Midas Mulligan]

Found this website www.playoffstatus.com while researching the 2016 playoff schedule and thought you might like it. Give probabilities of playoff positions for all teams. Doesn't include today's game but the numbers look mighty fine!!!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/mls/easternstandings.html

Dude. I'm going to guess you're forgetful, and not that you haven't read these threads for two years.

Eta:
After This Week, 3 Points Seperates 3rd From 9th(us) In The East

http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?posts/153030/

 

[Albany_NYCFC]

Dude. I'm going to guess you're forgetful, and not that you haven't read these threads for two years.

Eta:
After This Week, 3 Points Seperates 3rd From 9th(us) In The East

http://nycfcforums.com/index.php?posts/153030/

LOL! Forgetful for sure! As I was typing I was thinking I can't be the first one here to find this site!!! And I was right.....

 

[Midas Mulligan]

LOL! Forgetful for sure! As I was typing I was thinking I can't be the first one here to find this site!!! And I was right.....

I went from Bronx to ktown with my zipper open. And that's a minimum. Could be longer. I understand.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I went from Bronx to ktown with my zipper open. And that's a minimum. Could be longer. I understand.

That's what she said...

 

[LionNYC]

We have 11 games left in the regular season. Optimistically, I think we can win 9 of them.

SJ (A), Clb (A), Orl (A), DC (H), NE (A), Chi (H), Hou (A), DC (A), Col (H). These are teams we are better than, well I think we are better than.

The other two games are LA (H) and DAL (H).

Do we have the easiest regular season schedule left in MLS? Most of our matches are against non-playoff or borderline playoff Eastern Conference teams.

 

[Ulrich]

We have 11 games left in the regular season. Optimistically, I think we can win 9 of them.

SJ (A), Col (A), Orl (A), DC (H), NE (A), Chi (H), Hou (A), DC (A), Col (H). These are teams we are better than, well I think we are better than.

The other two games are LA (H) and DAL (H).

Do we have the easiest regular season schedule left in MLS? Most of our matches are against non-playoff or borderline playoff Eastern Conference teams.

Columbus is CLB. Colorado is COL. Slightly skewed schedule the way you have it listed.

 

[LionNYC]

Columbus is CLB. Colorado is COL. Slightly skewed schedule the way you have it listed.

Well, with that Columbus fix, I just removed the LA and Dallas games from the list above in their scheduled order.