Last year Toronto was the 6th seed with 49 points. This year we have 33 points. We could lose 8 of our last 12 games and still hit that number. Captain Jack is sailing us to Playoff Town USA.
2016 Playoff Projections, or Hope By The Numbers
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Last year Toronto was the 6th seed with 49 points. This year we have 33 points. We could lose 8 of our last 12 games and still hit that number. Captain Jack is sailing us to Playoff Town USA.
I know when the schedule came out that we had discussed that we needed to win a lot of games early in the season inorder to pad ourselves with points for the rest of the season. What are the currents thoughts when looking at our current games going forward? Still as hard as we imagined or has things changed and we think we may have an easier schedule going forward than we thought.
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NYC24
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I'm pretty sure in MLS the rule is 3 points max for a win. So under your scenario NYCFC would finish with 45 points assuming it won all the games it didn't lose.
bad math not withstanding, point is we can lose alot.
We are indeed capable of losing both a lot and by a lot.
In terms of our Eastern Conf games, there has been one important change which is that Columbus, who people expected to be good, are quite poor while Philadelphia, who not much was expected of, have turned out to be pretty good. We are done with Philly, but still have two matches against Columbus. Otherwise, the East, at least, probably looks as we expected, with Chicago, DC and Orlando being the weaker teams.
In the West, Colorado is clearly better than expected while Seattle turned out to be worse. So, that cuts the other way given that we've played Seattle but not Colorado.
Here are our remaining games:
- vs West: Col, SJ, LA, Dal, Hou
- vs East: Clb, Orl, DC, NE, Chi, DC, Clb
As always, getting/remaining healthy is crucial. But other than our next game against Colorado where we will be shorthanded (footed?), I think our remaining schedule is pretty favorable.
For me the expected easy part of the schedule where I thought we should have built up points was the first 9 games. Six at Home, only 3 Away, and the 3 Away were Chicago, Philly and Columbus. As 226 noted, Philly and Columbus traded places so that's a wash. The home opponents are less important because good MLS teams should be able to beat everyone at home. Chicago and Houston in 10th place each have winning records at home. We have the worst Home record in the league. As it happens our 6 opponents for those early home games included only 3 teams currently in the playoffs, and they are at positions 5 (TOR) 6 (NER) and 6 (VAN). At the end of those 9 games we had 10 points and we should have had 17-22 out of 27.
The correction is of course, correct. I note it to add that I'm starting to think, however, that 45 points will get you in the playoffs in the East this year. The East has already played to more Draws this year, with more than a third of the season left, than it did all of last year. Every Draw takes a point off the table.
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NYC24
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I predict the future for a living, and think I'm pretty good at it.
I am saying NYCFC is >70% to make the playoffs. That's a pretty strong favorite. I would bet up to 20% of my net worth on it.
I am not rooting against them. But I am mentally prepared for the <30% the team doesn't make the playoffs and the 10% probability (included in the <30%) the club absolutely implodes from this point forward due to tactical inflexibility, advanced age of key players and lack of squad depth.
I have been impressed over the last 10 matches that PV has a vision and is imposing it through the force of his will. But we have also benefitted from variance over this period, and our current place in the table overstates our quality.
I am saying NYCFC is >70% to make the playoffs. That's a pretty strong favorite. I would bet up to 20% of my net worth on it.
I am not rooting against them. But I am mentally prepared for the <30% the team doesn't make the playoffs and the 10% probability (included in the <30%) the club absolutely implodes from this point forward due to tactical inflexibility, advanced age of key players and lack of squad depth.
I have been impressed over the last 10 matches that PV has a vision and is imposing it through the force of his will. But we have also benefitted from variance over this period, and our current place in the table overstates our quality.
One additional note on the schedule. Before the season I did a quick prediction of W-L-D for every game. I was intentionally optimistic and it came to 51 points. I have since been comparing actual results to those predictions. This is of course even less scientifically rigorous than anything else I post here. I spent about 5 minutes on this pre-season, and it really reflected my view of the schedule more than anything else. After 8 games the team had a 14 point deficit to my prediction. After a 3 game win streak the deficit was down to 5 by Game 11, but climbed back to 14 after the loss to RSL. Right now the deficit is at 5. My optimistic prediction to get to 51 points had us at 38 now, and going only 3-5 4 from here to the end of the season. Currently I think we can do better than that and have a decent shot at erasing this fictional deficit.
But unlike NYC24 I think predictions are hard, especially when they concern the future.
But unlike NYC24 I think predictions are hard, especially when they concern the future.
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NYC24
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I don't like to reveal too much personal info on these Interweb chat boards, but now I am going to post my photo:
nick chavez alt account?I don't like to reveal too much personal info on these Interweb chat boards, but now I am going to post my photo:
I think Mr. Garbowski has it about right. Our easy part of the schedule was the first few weeks and we blew that opportunity - in large part due to bad fortune and failing to close out games. Since then, we've done much better, against tougher competition, also in part due to good fortune, but also because we have better players on the field and are playing well.
We are 4 games into the 9 game rough stretch that I outlined in this thread. Our next 5 are tough, with 3 games on the road and 2 at home against 2 of the best 3 teams in the league. After that, things get a whole lot easier over our last 7 games. We stay at home for 4 of them, and only play one against a team above the red line (Dallas, at home). We really should expect 14 points out of those 7. If we can get through the next 5 in a decent position in the table, we will be playing for seeding, and I like us to be Top 4 at worst and maybe Top 2.
We are 4 games into the 9 game rough stretch that I outlined in this thread. Our next 5 are tough, with 3 games on the road and 2 at home against 2 of the best 3 teams in the league. After that, things get a whole lot easier over our last 7 games. We stay at home for 4 of them, and only play one against a team above the red line (Dallas, at home). We really should expect 14 points out of those 7. If we can get through the next 5 in a decent position in the table, we will be playing for seeding, and I like us to be Top 4 at worst and maybe Top 2.
This all makes sense, but if the team continues its pattern for the year of doing it all backwards, it will dominate for the next 5 games and then limp into the playoffs struggling against the weaker teams
Here are our remaining games, in order, with rankings shown - first is the Supporters' Shield rankings by PPG, second are the SI MLS Power Rankings from Monday.
vs COL - 1, 1
at SNJ - 13, 16
at CLB - 19, 17
vs LAG - 3, 2
at ORL - 15, 15
vs DCU - 16, 14
at NER - 14, 12
vs DAL - 2, 3
vs CHI - 20, 19
at HOU - 18, 18
at DCU - 16, 14
vs CLB - 19, 17
I might have to revise my other thread. We may be able to take off the big boy pants after Saturday and get them dry cleaned so they are ready for the playoffs.
vs COL - 1, 1
at SNJ - 13, 16
at CLB - 19, 17
vs LAG - 3, 2
at ORL - 15, 15
vs DCU - 16, 14
at NER - 14, 12
vs DAL - 2, 3
vs CHI - 20, 19
at HOU - 18, 18
at DCU - 16, 14
vs CLB - 19, 17
I might have to revise my other thread. We may be able to take off the big boy pants after Saturday and get them dry cleaned so they are ready for the playoffs.
So, here's a trend that is really exasperating me this year. In matches I attend, the team is 4-6-6 or 1.1ppg (plus the horrific Cosmos loss). Matches I don't attend, 5-1-0 or 2.5ppg. A lot of this is, of course, our terrible home record. But, even on the road, they are 1-3-1 or 0.8ppg when I go.
WTF?
In any event, I will miss Saturday due to family vacation, so that apparently bodes well.
As for the topic at hand, I think it would be a real longshot for us to not even make the playoffs and am inclined to agree with 90% estimates absent, I suppose, a long term Villa absence. Too much has to go wrong for us and right for a lot of other teams. From that perspective, this was a good weekend as the bottom 4 all dropped points even though the seedings race in the top 6 got tighter.
While my aspirations are certainly higher, my break-even goal for emotional happiness in the grand scheme of things remains a home playoff game.
WTF?
In any event, I will miss Saturday due to family vacation, so that apparently bodes well.
As for the topic at hand, I think it would be a real longshot for us to not even make the playoffs and am inclined to agree with 90% estimates absent, I suppose, a long term Villa absence. Too much has to go wrong for us and right for a lot of other teams. From that perspective, this was a good weekend as the bottom 4 all dropped points even though the seedings race in the top 6 got tighter.
While my aspirations are certainly higher, my break-even goal for emotional happiness in the grand scheme of things remains a home playoff game.
We are all big fans that's why we are on here but objectively we are one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. We lead the league in assists because we have a sweet flowing attack. (Unlike Sunday) when we play well we keep the ball. Most games we create more scoring chances than our opponents do. Based on what I have seen this year the top 4 in the East are NYCFC NJRB Montreal and Toronto. NJRB and Toronto have defensive issues just like we do. Other than the Portland game we haven't picked up wins when we were outplayed (like Philly has repeatedly), so its not like our record is better than it should be. Its possible we will play the rest of the season like Sunday and flame out of contention but as long as we keep playing like we have all year it shouldn't happen.
I am planning on at least one home playoff game.
I am planning on at least one home playoff game.
Agree that 90% represents fair odds on making the playoffs. Plus I, like you, would be happy with a Top 4 finish and the guaranteed home playoff game that comes with it. I will go on to say that Top 2 is really important for a team like us so that we avoid the mid-week playoff game that would leave us potentially shagged out for the start of the second round.
I kind of agree with this. Philly have played well, but I suspect that Montreal and Toronto are the other two teams to really fear in the East. I will go so far as to say I think they will prove to be the Top 2 in the East when the dust settles (and assuming Toronto can get to full health).
I'll admit, the competition looks somewhat easier for the rest of the season, but I think our recent form has been an illusion. We are a lucky goal vs a bad team away from getting only 4 points in four games. We are no longer a possession team, we are a defend-and-hope-villa/harrison-makes-magic team.
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