By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do

[SayWhat44]

Montreal getting a point last night really hurt our chances. Fuck those guys they need to start losing ASAP. Also obviously we have little to no chance of getting into the playoffs however if we do that means we went on a huge win streak and carrying momentum into the playoffs.....

 

[Mikeylito]

Death Watch Update: Mid-Week Edition

From a "Death Watch" standpoint, not much changed from the weekend.
Columbus and Montreal flip-flopped at #4 and #5, with Montreal dropping two points to a MaxP of 57.

I pretty much agree with mgarbowski's scenarios.
With City's MaxP stable at 46, it's equal to New England's current point total now.
One more win by each of the Top 4 rules us out of the first four positions.

It's Montreal and Toronto now.

P.S. As for that last statement, I want to acknowledge I was told that and I was being stubborn. Mea culpa.

 

[NYCFCFan10]

Damn, Montreal won as did Orlando. Worst case scenario for the weekend.

Montreal's schedule will be packed though and they'll struggle these last couple of weeks.

We just need to keep winning.

 

[WestSideGuy]

These past two games the boys have shown some heart. Wednesday was a great game and last night they were able to keep the opponents at bay and hold them off. Seems like we are beginning to gel. Let's keep up the wins.

 

[LionNYC]

I think our DPs finally understand what playoffs mean now.

Pirlo (in Italian): So after the season, the champion is crowned?
Villa (in Spanish): No, I think the top four teams go to the MLS Champions League.
Lampard (in UK English): Yeah, and the bottom three are relegated to the NCAA.
Kreis (in US English): That's all wrong. Ned, please explain to them what playoffs are.

 

[mgarbowski]

I'm putting the wins projections away. This late in the season it's irrelevant. Our max is 46 points. We cannot get 45. 3-0-1 gets us 44 points, and 3-1-0 yields 43. With that in mind DC and above are gone. For about a month now I've been saying we can olny catch Toronto if they suffer a complete meltdown. When they lost 3 straight it was acceptable to hope, but their win yesterday has them at 40 points with 5 to play. One win, one tie and three losses and they have 44. So the total collapse would need to be very total.
Which leaves Montreal. 36 points with 7 to play.
Home Chicago, DC, Toronto
Away Orlando, NYRB, Colorado, New England
Double games this week, and again 2 weeks later. They also play in International week when we are off.
I'm not predicting but here are their possibilities:
3-2-2 47 points (obviously anything better and we're done as well)
3-3-1 46 pts
2-2-3 45 points
2-3-2 44 points

2-3-2 Beat Chicago, beat Colorado, tie 3 of the other 6.
3-3-1 Beat Chicago, beat Colorado, steal one more, and tie one = 46 points. It's not a given but it's very doable for them.

If we win out Orlando is handled because we play them and are 1 point behind. Since I took the standing screen shot Philly won so they are only 1 point behind us but if we manage to catch the teams ahead of us they won't catch us, and if we don't catch the teams ahead of us I don't much care if Philly passes us. A little, but not much.

Sports Club Stats says if we make 46 points our playoff chance is 78.4%, but at 44 points only 40.9%.
This is what happens late in a season when you blew too many games previously. You win 2 games in 1 week but because everyone else wins as well you actually lose ground.

 

[Mikeylito]

Which leaves Montreal

Yeah, I concur. Montreal's MaxP is 57, a difference of +11.
We'd basically have to win out and they lose at least three of the seven remaining, plus at least one draw.

Where's Tonya Harding when you need her?

 

[AJS]

Well, we will know a lot more by the time we start in Saturday since Montreal will have played twice.

 

[SoupInNYC]

View attachment 3369

I'm putting the wins projections away. This late in the season it's irrelevant. Our max is 46 points. We cannot get 45. 3-0-1 gets us 44 points, and 3-1-0 yields 43. With that in mind DC and above are gone. For about a month now I've been saying we can olny catch Toronto if they suffer a complete meltdown. When they lost 3 straight it was acceptable to hope, but their win yesterday has them at 40 points with 5 to play. One win, one tie and three losses and they have 44. So the total collapse would need to be very total.
Which leaves Montreal. 36 points with 7 to play.
Home Chicago, DC, Toronto
Away Orlando, NJRB, Colorado, New England
Double games this week, and again 2 weeks later. They also play in International week when we are off.
I'm not predicting but here are their possibilities:
3-2-2 47 points (obviously anything better and we're done as well)
3-3-1 46 pts
2-2-3 45 points
2-3-2 44 points

2-3-2 Beat Chicago, beat Colorado, tie 3 of the other 6.
3-3-1 Beat Chicago, beat Colorado, steal one more, and tie one = 46 points. It's not a given but it's very doable for them.

If we win out Orlando is handled because we play them and are 1 point behind. Since I took the standing screen shot Philly won so they are only 1 point behind us but if we manage to catch the teams ahead of us they won't catch us, and if we don't catch the teams ahead of us I don't much care if Philly passes us. A little, but not much.

Sports Club Stats says if we make 46 points our playoff chance is 78.4%, but at 44 points only 40.9%.
This is what happens late in a season when you blew too many games previously. You win 2 games in 1 week but because everyone else wins as well you actually lose ground.

You know what's kinda crazy about this? If we look at our performances against only Eastern Conference teams, we are averaging a little over 1.38 ppg. If we look at our performances against Eastern Conference teams and exclude NJRB, we are averaging 1.61 ppg.

Then, the flip side. Western Conference its an abysmal 0.55 ppg. If you add NJRB to the West, its 0.41 ppg....

 

[mgarbowski]

You know what's kinda crazy about this? If we look at our performances against only Eastern Conference teams, we are averaging a little over 1.38 ppg. If we look at our performances against Eastern Conference teams and exclude NJRB, we are averaging 1.61 ppg.

Then, the flip side. Western Conference its an abysmal 0.55 ppg. If you add NJRB to the West, its 0.41 ppg....

You can play this all day. We have 5 wins in 8 games against 3 teams directly above us, yet we only have a real chance to catch one of those three, and that depends on us beating them again. Meanwhile we have only 1 win in 5 tries against the two teams below us. Make sense of that!
Good catch on the east/west split. I doubt the fact we do better against the East shocks anybody, but I was surprised by the amount of the disparity.

 

[Mikeylito]

I wanted to take a moment to commend mgarbowski for his work with predictive PPG going all the way back to May prior to the mid-season arrival of our 2nd and 3rd DPs. I haven't read all his work in detail, although I will, but I've read the foundational posts because I wanted to understand why he focused in on PPG as a predictive stat. It's really quite fascinating to see the origins of his thinking and how the actual has matched the predictive pretty much from Day 1.

I'm somewhat of a stat geek myself and I love taking numbers and throwing in a computerized Mixmaster and see what comes out. My work with MaxP derived from not having a straightforward "magic"|"tragic" number to predict when a team is getting perilously close to clinching a playoff spot or being eliminated from one.

Math (a/k/a Analytics) can often give a astoundingly accurate picture of what is happening in sports when you think that sports is so random but the closer you look you learn there are discernable patterns and, often, predictable outcomes.

Of course, the fascination is watching a player or a club defy the odds and do something no one might expect.

Anyway, I wanted to acknowledge M for his work; I understand how time-consuming it can be and also how demanding an audience can be when they come to rely on the numbers.

Excellent, excellent work.
Thank you.

 

[21Architect]

NYCFC need to minimize mistakes made by their defense (especially in our defensive third) and stop taking shots from outside of the area.

And some old fashioned luck.


Also, I know this won't be too popular but MLS allows too many teams to make the playoffs. I know I'm not the first to say it but it's been really bugging me lately.

 

[mgarbowski]

I wanted to take a moment to commend mgarbowski for his work with predictive PPG going all the way back to May prior to the mid-season arrival of our 2nd and 3rd DPs. I haven't read all his work in detail, although I will, but I've read the foundational posts because I wanted to understand why he focused in on PPG as a predictive stat. It's really quite fascinating to see the origins of his thinking and how the actual has matched the predictive pretty much from Day 1.

I'm somewhat of a stat geek myself and I love taking numbers and throwing in a computerized Mixmaster and see what comes out. My work with MaxP derived from not having a straightforward "magic"|"tragic" number to predict when a team is getting perilously close to clinching a playoff spot or being eliminated from one.

Math (a/k/a Analytics) can often give a astoundingly accurate picture of what is happening in sports when you think that sports is so random but the closer you look you learn there are discernable patterns and, often, predictable outcomes.

Of course, the fascination is watching a player or a club defy the odds and do something no one might expect.

Anyway, I wanted to acknowledge M for his work; I understand how time-consuming it can be and also how demanding an audience can be when they come to rely on the numbers.

Excellent, excellent work.
Thank you.

Many thanks, Mikeylito.

 

[JayH]

I think NYCFC should be vigorously petitioning MLS right now for one "do-over game" this season. We would have many to choose from, but that 3-2 loss to Montreal would be best under the current circumstances. It would be great for MLS if NYCFC made the playoffs, and they love changing rules on the fly. Maybe we can even ask LA to ask for us, then it's certainly a done deal. Lead in by parroting some Garber talking points, "Hey Don, we all know that MLS is the league the world should be watching right now, likely to be a top three league by the end of next season. One way to accelerate that pace would be to have the star power and storylines driven by NYCFC's participation in the playoffs in its inaugurual season. How can we accomplish that? It's very simple, the implementation of a do-over game rule. It's been done before, albeit by six year-olds playing whiffleball in the playground, but it's fair and reasonable, and it's for the best for the league. What do you think Don?" "Done."

 

[mgarbowski]

Maybe we can even ask LA to ask for us, then it's certainly a done deal.

That's some can't fail thinking right there.

 

[SayWhat44]

https://twitter.com/x/status/646378698980126720

Chicago plays Montreal on Wed....

 

[JayH]

Chicago should be up two nil in the first half after having a clean breakaway on a bad back pass and then an absolute sitter, both botched by Chicago. And then Drogba gets a goal on a header after shoving the defender to the ground. Hope Chicago can rally in the second.

 

[SayWhat44]

Updated chance for playoffs after Montreal beat Chicago 1.9%

 

[mgarbowski]

Updated chance for playoffs after Montreal beat Chicago 1.9%

But yeah, it's pretty darn close to being over.

 

[Sabo]

The fat lady is clearing her throat and getting ready to go on stage. Good results and Montreal tanking their 4 game road trip? Firing Klopas and picking up Drogba is working for Montreal. There is no way around that.