Surrender all hope! Lol, I am generally the optimist on this site, but I think it has become very unlikely that even 46 points gets us in, and getting 46 points is a huge stretch. Can we really expect a team which has been so inconsistent all year to all of a sudden win 6 straight? Granted, I do believe we have the talent to win 6, but it's never easy to win 6 especially when the team has been together for such a short amount of time.
By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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Some guy who just passed away used to have a saying about situations like this.
It's so frustrating to see this team give everything they have and do what they need to do but it just isn't happening anyway.
I don't know about you all but I'm enjoying this.
NYCFC
Our max is still 46, and we have to win 3 more in a row, six straight total, to get there. Remember we cannot end up with 45; win 2 and tie 1 gets us 44.
Toronto
43 points with 4 to play. 1 win 3 losses gets them 46. Tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is not Goal Differential but Total Wins. If TFC wins one more to end up exactly at 46 points they will have 14 wins. We will have 13. We lose. Toronto cannot win one game and end up behind us, even if we win out.
Montreal
42 points with 5 to play. Two wins gets them 48 points. One win, 4 losses and no ties = 45 points. We would win at 46. One win, one tie, and 3 losses = 46 points. We both would have 13 wins. Their GD is +5, ours is -5. We would need to win games by multiple goals, and Montreal lose by multiple goals to make up a 10 goal GD lead. As has been pointed out, they have a tough schedule, but they are the hottest team in MLS right now.
DC United
Credit to ktdNYCFC for being the first to point this out yesterday. DC has 45 points with only 3 to play, and one is against us. If we win out they have to lose 1, and their other 2 are against Chicago at home and Columbus in Ohio. If they lose both they stay at 45 and we win. If they lose 1 and tie 1 they have 46. We would both have 13 wins. Their GD is -2, but if they tie 1 and lose 2 that has to drop to at least -4. Our GD is -5, but if we win 3 that has to improve to at least -2. If we tie DC at 46 we win on goal differential. DC is our simplest path to the playoffs. Of course, we have to win 3 more in a row.
Orlando
If we win out we beat them, we get 46 and with at least one loss against us their max is 44. We win. Orlando is not an issue if we win out.
ODDS
4% chance of making the playoffs. Up from about 2 % last I checked. Even though TFC and Montreal won. I guess they expected us to lose to Vancouver.
55.9% chance of making the playoffs if we go 3-0-0. Seems high to me. The difference between 4% and 55.9% reflects the likelihood of us going 3-0-0.
NYCFC
Our max is still 46, and we have to win 3 more in a row, six straight total, to get there. Remember we cannot end up with 45; win 2 and tie 1 gets us 44.
Toronto
43 points with 4 to play. 1 win 3 losses gets them 46. Tiebreakers. The first tiebreaker is not Goal Differential but Total Wins. If TFC wins one more to end up exactly at 46 points they will have 14 wins. We will have 13. We lose. Toronto cannot win one game and end up behind us, even if we win out.
Montreal
42 points with 5 to play. Two wins gets them 48 points. One win, 4 losses and no ties = 45 points. We would win at 46. One win, one tie, and 3 losses = 46 points. We both would have 13 wins. Their GD is +5, ours is -5. We would need to win games by multiple goals, and Montreal lose by multiple goals to make up a 10 goal GD lead. As has been pointed out, they have a tough schedule, but they are the hottest team in MLS right now.
DC United
Credit to ktdNYCFC for being the first to point this out yesterday. DC has 45 points with only 3 to play, and one is against us. If we win out they have to lose 1, and their other 2 are against Chicago at home and Columbus in Ohio. If they lose both they stay at 45 and we win. If they lose 1 and tie 1 they have 46. We would both have 13 wins. Their GD is -2, but if they tie 1 and lose 2 that has to drop to at least -4. Our GD is -5, but if we win 3 that has to improve to at least -2. If we tie DC at 46 we win on goal differential. DC is our simplest path to the playoffs. Of course, we have to win 3 more in a row.
Orlando
If we win out we beat them, we get 46 and with at least one loss against us their max is 44. We win. Orlando is not an issue if we win out.
ODDS
4% chance of making the playoffs. Up from about 2 % last I checked. Even though TFC and Montreal won. I guess they expected us to lose to Vancouver.
55.9% chance of making the playoffs if we go 3-0-0. Seems high to me. The difference between 4% and 55.9% reflects the likelihood of us going 3-0-0.
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On Oct 25, NYCFC, Toronto, Orlando, Montreal and DC all play at 5pm. How exciting would it be if we still had a shot as of 5pm.
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It would be like...NEW YORK HAS QUALIFIED FOR THE PLAYOFFS, I SWEAR YOU'LL NEVER SEE ANYTHING LIKE THIS EVER AGAIN.
LOL! We expected us to lose to Vancouver.
It's October 25th and it was by design,
ESPN and FOX wanted to have a day which parallelled how the Premiership played all their games at the same time. What I don't know is whether it's a studio whiparound show or if they are going to present a single match in each broadcast window.
Right now, I'm not dreaming of the playoffs, but instead the possibility of the Oct. 25 Five pm Still Alive Scenario. Just imagine how much fun the New England game would be if we can get in with a win and some help (let's assume it's a DC loss or tie), with the intensity watching the game live at YS while contemporaneously checking the score(s) and, for example, rooting on Columbus to beat (or even tie), DC. We get interestingly close to that simply by winning on Friday night in DC. Then, the next week becomes even more interesting against Orlando - win that, and we are a DC tie or loss against Chicago (ugh) away from the O25FSAS. Win or lose, playoffs or not, that would be a fun and exciting (and as of just a few weeks ago, unexpected) way to finish this first season.
I'm daring to dream. I thought we'd be dusted by now, and we probably are, but seeing the team win and look good suddenly gives me hope for 2016. And honestly, that's the biggest thing. Before the dallas game, I didn't have much hope going forward. Now I do.
Next week worries me the most. Of course DC is capable of beating or at least drawing with us, but right now Orlando is playing better than DC. Right now I would rank the Orlando game as the one we are most likely to tie or lose of the three remaining. Plus DC plays Chicago, as you note, and that team is collapsing, and worse than DC.
It has been surprisingly fun watching us lose ground while winning the last 3 weeks. Obviously I'd rather have TFC and Montreal lose so we gain ground, but if we end up getting eliminated while getting 14-18 of our last 18 points, that really does take the edge off.
I keep checking this thread to see if the play offs are still a possibility as I can't work it out for myself. I'm loving the effort some of you guys are putting in to work out all of the permutations & hope the thread has legs for a few weeks yet. I'll be watching the DC game Friday night at midnight with interest. Keep the faith!
Will be great to see the talking heads chatter and DC fans squirm if NYCFC wins on Friday. That will be some great discussion for 2 weeks or so. Please please let it be.
Our infinitesimal chances depend upon Orlando beating Montreal tonight. But now that we have lost, it is not enough for us to win out to overcome Orlando. In addition to needing Montreal to lose all of its remaining games, we would need Philadelphia to beat Orlando in Philadelphia on Oct 25.
Well, Orlando just scored in the 31st minute (approx.). 1-0. We still have a chance!
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