NYCFC 2021 Season Discussion

[ZYanksRule]

SportsClubStats gives NYCFC a 84% chance of a top four seed with its simulations.

NYCFC win: 82% to end in 3rd place.

NYCFC tie: 80% to end in 4th place and get the last home game.

NYCFC loss: 47% 4th, 44% 5th place.

New York City FC Playoff Chances - Sports Club Stats

New York City FC playoff odds, and who you should root for today.

www.sportsclubstats.com

We can't fall below third if we win. If we are on 53, we leapfrog Philly due to the tiebreaker, and only Nashville can leap ahead of us. So we'd be no worse than third no matter what if we win. Atlanta can sit on 53, but they'd have fewer wins which is the first tiebreaker.

And a tie, the only way we don't get 4th is if Atlanta or Red Bulls win out.

 

[SoupInNYC]

We can't fall below third if we win. If we are on 53, we leapfrog Philly due to the tiebreaker, and only Nashville can leap ahead of us. So we'd be no worse than third no matter what if we win. Atlanta can sit on 53, but they'd have fewer wins which is the first tiebreaker.

And a tie, the only way we don't get 4th is if Atlanta or Red Bulls win out.

Which is why a draw on Wednesday night between those two would be the best result.

 

[Shwafta]

Which is why a draw on Wednesday night between those two would be the best result.

I am def gonna be watching that game and rooting for a 0-0 just so not only is it a tie, but it's the most boring way for it to happen. Great way to get them into the last game of the season heh.

 

[Gotham Gator]

If the Red Bulls beat Atlanta, that sets up for a scenario in which they finish 4th and we finish 5th. It would require the Red Bulls winning at Nashville and us losing to or tying Philly, but still... I don't like that idea - nope, not one bit.*



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* - 538 gives this a 5.95% chance of happening.

 

[LionNYC]

If the Red Bulls beat Atlanta, that sets up for a scenario in which they finish 4th and we finish 5th. It would require the Red Bulls winning at Nashville and us losing to or tying Philly, but still... I don't like that idea - nope, not one bit.*



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* - 538 gives this a 5.95% chance of happening.

That’s a nice tinfoil hat the executives at MLS sent you to wear

 

[Kjbert]

If the Red Bulls beat Atlanta, that sets up for a scenario in which they finish 4th and we finish 5th. It would require the Red Bulls winning at Nashville and us losing to or tying Philly, but still... I don't like that idea - nope, not one bit.*



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* - 538 gives this a 5.95% chance of happening.

Why? It’’d be a home game fo….ohhh

 

[canchon]

Why? It’’d be a home game fo….ohhh

and I thought we were done traveling to Jersey this year hahaha

 

[canchon]

We can't fall below third if we win. If we are on 53, we leapfrog Philly due to the tiebreaker, and only Nashville can leap ahead of us. So we'd be no worse than third no matter what if we win. Atlanta can sit on 53, but they'd have fewer wins which is the first tiebreaker.

And a tie, the only way we don't get 4th is if Atlanta or Red Bulls win out.

yep. The percentages are 84% third place, 16% second place.

 

[canchon]

I am def gonna be watching that game and rooting for a 0-0 just so not only is it a tie, but it's the most boring way for it to happen. Great way to get them into the last game of the season heh.

nah, I’d love to see Jersey winning 1-0 and then Atlanta getting a questionable PK in the 96th minute to tie. Karma.

 

[Shwafta]

nah, I’d love to see Jersey winning 1-0 and then Atlanta getting a questionable PK in the 96th minute to tie. Karma.

That would be great too! Either way. And then a Martinez run up spectacular of course

 

[LionNYC]

With the Red Bulls - Atlanta tie tonight, Sunday is very simple:

2nd Seed: NYCFC win vs. Philadelphia AND Red Bulls win at Nashville
3rd Seed: NYCFC win vs. Philadelphia
4th Seed: NYCFC tie vs. Philadelphia

 

[Shwafta]

With the Red Bulls - Atlanta tie tonight, Sunday is very simple:

2nd Seed: NYCFC win vs. Philadelphia AND Red Bulls win at Nashville
3rd Seed: NYCFC win vs. Philadelphia
4th Seed: NYCFC tie vs. Philadelphia

4th Seed: NYCFC lose and Orlando/Atlanta both lose

 

[SoupInNYC]

4th Seed: NYCFC lose and Orlando/Atlanta both lose

Or tie

 

[Gotham Gator]

The next interesting game is New Jersey - Atlanta on Wednesday. What to root for there? I think also a tie, and barring that, an Atlanta win. Either of those results puts us ahead of the Red Bulls regardless of Sunday's outcomes. A tie in that game means we only need a tie vs. Philly to stay ahead of Atlanta too. If Atlanta win, then we will need to match or exceed their result on Sunday to stay ahead.

We should root for Montreal to beat Houston at home on Wednesday. That leaves them able to pass as many as 3 other teams and playing for the playoffs against Orlando on Sunday.

 

[Shwafta]

If Montreal beat Orlando, they jump Orlando now. And if RB win, they jump orlando. Which will drop orlando out of the playoffs.

As much as I don't want RB in the playoffs, watching Orlando free fall out of the playoffs would be absolutely hilarious and worth it, even if it means RB in the playoffs. So make it happen, Montreal and RB!

 

[canchon]

Crazy that we were rooting for RB to tie and now we *may* be rooting for them to win on Sunday (depending on our own result).

 

[canchon]

New Plan:
-NYCFC beats PHL
-RBNJ defeats Nashville

Set the plan up folks!

 

[Shwafta]

Crazy that we were rooting for RB to tie and now we *may* be rooting for them to win on Sunday (depending on our own result).

We're not rooting *for* RB, we're rooting for *a win that results in Nashville not winning*

 

[Kjbert]

Has anyone mapped out our potential playoff opponents?

 

[Gotham Gator]

Has anyone mapped out our potential playoff opponents?

Too many moving parts. We could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th, and most of the other playoff contenders have pretty wide windows on where they could finish too.

Here are the possibilities based on our seeding.

2nd: Orlando, Montreal, Atlanta or DC
3rd: Orlando, Montreal, Atlanta, New Jersey
4th: Orlando, Montreal, Atlanta, New Jersey
5th: at Atlanta or Orlando
6th: at Nashville