2020 Schedule Thread

Shwafta said:
1) Orlando win on wednesday
  1. Orlando goes on 41, unattainable by NYCFC, but Columbus stays on 38 - we can overtake that to 39 if they lose on the final day.
  2. If Columbus tie their last game, they would go to 39 and we would go to tie breakers where I'm not sure how that's changed (if) with the point system change. But we would have a good chance to win the tiebreaker due to the goal swing of us winning + them losing to Orlando of at least 4 goals.
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Tiebreakers are unchanged, except adjusted for games played. So first tiebreaker is number of wins per games played, But unless a game unexpectedly gets canceled, we will be even on games played with all relevant teams. So just the number of wins matters. In this scenario, Columbus stays flat at 11 wins and NYC ends with 12 so NYC wins the tiebreaker. I'm not sure why you think the GD swing matters, as you clearly realize wins is the first tiebreaker with respect to Orlando.
 
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After losing their first 4 games, NYC has achieved 36 points in 18 games for 2.0 PPG. Without checking I think it's nearly certain that is best in league. NYC is also 10-4-3, 1.94 PPG, since the MLS is back tournament, which must be top 3 if not best.

The 4 teams who beat NYC at the disjointed start of the season are all ahead of NYC in the standings.
 
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Shwafta said:
They're putting us at higher odds than any other eastern team other than philly to get to / win the cup.
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moogoo said:
i'm sure that is purely due to the fact that we've won most of our last handful of games whereas the other Eastern big dogs have been dropping points.
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NYC is ahead of Toronto, Columbus and Orlando on SPI, but behind them on projected wins and GD in the simulated season columns. Presumably that is because NYC lost the first 4 games -- to those 3 teams plus Philadelphia -- which has to be included in every simulated season. So it appears 538's model thinks NYC is better but had a terrible start, and there is some logic to that.

What is weird is that on Oct 7, NYC had an SPI of 47.1, then on Oct 20 the SPI was 48.4. In between those dates NYC went 0-2-1 and transferred out it's most productive player without getting a replacement.
 
mgarbowski said:
Tiebreakers are unchanged, except adjusted for games played. So first tiebreaker is number of wins per games played, But unless a game unexpectedly gets canceled, we will be even on games played with all relevant teams. So just the number of wins matters. In this scenario, Columbus stays flat at 11 wins and NYC ends with 12 so NYC wins the tiebreaker. I'm not sure why you think the GD swing matters, as you clearly realize wins is the first tiebreaker with respect to Orlando.
Click to expand...
Whoops! Completely missed that we would end on 12! thanks. So either way we'd want a win, not a tie on wednesday.
 
Last bit for now. Because NYC had a terrible start that also coincided with the toughest part of the schedule, it is hard to tease out cause and effect, and conclude either that all is better after a poor start or the team just can't beat better teams, and by chance those games were front loaded. So here is a bit more data. I calculated the average H/A adjusted PPG of NYCFC's opponents when it won, lost, and tied. For the 3 MIB Tournament games I I used the opponent's blended full season PPG, as those were neither really Home nor Away. The results:

NYCFC Wins 1.04 Opponent PPG
NYCFC Losses 2.05 Opponent PPG
NYCFC Ties 1.45 Opponent PPG

That's kind of ugly. What if you exclude MLS is Back and earlier?

Wins 1.05
Losses 1.97
Ties 1.45
Not very different.

Another way of looking at it: since returning from MIB, NYC has played 6 games against an opponent whose H/A PPG was 1.50 or above, with a record of 2-3-1. Also, one of those "quality" wins was in Miami, where they have 1.56 PPG. It's hard not to conclude that NYC has destroyed the opposition in games it should win, and really struggled otherwise.

Barring some unexpected help, NYC is likely to play nothing but Away playoff games.
Here is the current Home PPG of likely potential East playoff opponents:
Philadelphia 2.80
Toronto 2.00
Columbus 2.70
Orlando 2.33
It would be a huge deal to get that unexpected help.

If NYC gets through the East and faces a West opponent, here is the PPG for potential opponents, either H or A depending on whether that team is currently ahead or behind NYC:
Portland (H) 1.82
SKC (H) 1.73
Seattle (H) 2.18
Minnesota (A) 1.33
LAFC (A) 0.57
 
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Shwafta said:
Whoops! Completely missed that we would end on 12! thanks. So either way we'd want a win, not a tie on wednesday.
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I'm not sure it's clear what to hope for on Wednesday. Assuming NYC wins, because anything else and it's all over, we need either Columbus or Orlando to finish with either 1 loss and 1 draw, or 2 losses.

If either team wins on Wednesday, then we are left rooting for the other to lose or draw next Sunday. If Wednesday ends in a tie, then we can move up if either team loses next Sunday. It's hard to say what's more likely.
 
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mgarbowski said:
If either team wins on Wednesday, then we are left rooting for the other to lose or draw next Sunday. If Wednesday ends in a tie, then we can move up if either team loses next Sunday. It's hard to say what's more likely.
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FWIW I checked the 538 game projections.

If Orlando wins Wednesday, we need a Columbus loss or draw next week: 57% chance
If Columbus wins Wednesday, we need an Orlando loss or draw next week: 44% chance
If they draw Wednesday, we need either Columbus or Orlando to lose next week: 48% chance.

So to the extent we believe 538, and I think these numbers are at least loosely plausible, we prefer an Orlando win on Wednesday, which itself has a 51% chance with them at home. I think the odds of Columbus at home losing or drawing with Atlanta are probably less than 57%, but still higher than the other possibilities. Though, Nashville will have a puncher's chance of at least a draw against Orlando. Nashville gives up less than 1 goal per game.
 
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Current Table
3) Columbus 38 Points, 11 Wins, +15 GD
4) Orlando 38 Points, 10 Wins, +15 GD
5) NYCFC 36 Points, 11 Wins, +11 GD

Remaining Matches
Columbus: at Orlando, vs. Atlanta (Atlanta is off on Wednesday)
Orlando: vs. Columbus, vs. Nashville (Nashville plays vs. FC Dallas on Wednesday)
NYCFC: at Chicago

If Columbus or Orlando win, we can't jump the winning team. We can jump the losing team if NYCFC wins and the losing team draws/loses their final game (we'd have the tiebreaker on wins).

If Columbus and Orlando draw, we can only jump if either team loses their following match and NYCFC wins.

Given Orlando has two home matches, I think jumping Columbus will be more likely. That being said, both teams are playing at home on Decision Day.
 
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mgarbowski said:
Last bit for now. Because NYC had a terrible start that also coincided with the toughest part of the schedule, it is hard to tease out cause and effect, and conclude either that all is better after a poor start or the team just can't beat better teams, and by chance those games were front loaded. So here is a bit more data. I calculated the average H/A adjusted PPG of NYCFC's opponents when it won, lost, and tied. For the 3 MIB Tournament games I I used the opponent's blended full season PPG, as those were neither really Home nor Away. The results:

NYCFC Wins 1.04 Opponent PPG
NYCFC Losses 2.05 Opponent PPG
NYCFC Ties 1.45 Opponent PPG

That's kind of ugly. What if you exclude MLS is Back and earlier?

Wins 1.05
Losses 1.97
Ties 1.45
Not very different.

Another way of looking at it: since returning from MIB, NYC has played 6 games against an opponent whose H/A PPG was 1.50 or above, with a record of 2-3-1. Also, one of those "quality" wins was in Miami, where they have 1.56 PPG. It's hard not to conclude that NYC has destroyed the opposition in games it should win, and really struggled otherwise.

Barring some unexpected help, NYC is likely to play nothing but Away playoff games.
Here is the current Home PPG of likely potential East playoff opponents:
Philadelphia 2.80
Toronto 2.00
Columbus 2.70
Orlando 2.33
It would be a huge deal to get that unexpected help.

If NYC gets through the East and faces a West opponent, here is the PPG for potential opponents, either H or A depending on whether that team is currently ahead or behind NYC:
Portland (H) 1.82
SKC (H) 1.73
Seattle (H) 2.18
Minnesota (A) 1.33
LAFC (A) 0.57
Click to expand...
One other factor is the distraction of CCL around the first two matches. I'm not sure if it's anecdotal or backed up by numbers, but it seems as though teams tend to struggle in MLS while they are concurrently involved in CCL. And then of course MIB was weird, we arrived kind of late, locked in a hotel room, virtually no full team training for months with a new manager, very easy to look like garbage.
 
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Most likely scenario is NYCFC is locked into fifth and will go on the road to either Columbus or Orlando and promptly lose the first game as it’s on the road. Pretty much this team’s ceiling.
 
canchon said:
Most likely scenario is NYCFC is locked into fifth and will go on the road to either Columbus or Orlando and promptly lose the first game as it’s on the road. Pretty much this team’s ceiling.
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Or maybe they stay with tradition and win the first game and then lose the second. In four years of making the playoffs, NYCFC has been eliminated in the Eastern Conference semi-finals every time.
 
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mgarbowski said:
After losing their first 4 games, NYC has achieved 36 points in 18 games for 2.0 PPG. Without checking I think it's nearly certain that is best in league. NYC is also 10-4-3, 1.94 PPG, since the MLS is back tournament, which must be top 3 if not best.

The 4 teams who beat NYC at the disjointed start of the season are all ahead of NYC in the standings.
Click to expand...

If you remove the Aug. 20 RBNY game, they are 10-3-3 since August 24. That is second in MLS behind only Philadelphia (11-3-2 record over span). Even including the Red Bull game, they're still second.

NYCFC has also scored 31 goals since that date, which is 3rd best in MLS behind only Portland and Philly.

Both stats from WhoScored.com
 
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mgarbowski said:
After losing their first 4 games, NYC has achieved 36 points in 18 games for 2.0 PPG. Without checking I think it's nearly certain that is best in league. NYC is also 10-4-3, 1.94 PPG, since the MLS is back tournament, which must be top 3 if not best.

The 4 teams who beat NYC at the disjointed start of the season are all ahead of NYC in the standings.
Click to expand...
mgarbowski said:
NYC is ahead of Toronto, Columbus and Orlando on SPI, but behind them on projected wins and GD in the simulated season columns. Presumably that is because NYC lost the first 4 games -- to those 3 teams plus Philadelphia -- which has to be included in every simulated season. So it appears 538's model thinks NYC is better but had a terrible start, and there is some logic to that.

What is weird is that on Oct 7, NYC had an SPI of 47.1, then on Oct 20 the SPI was 48.4. In between those dates NYC went 0-2-1 and transferred out it's most productive player without getting a replacement.
Click to expand...
mgarbowski said:
After losing their first 4 games, NYC has achieved 36 points in 18 games for 2.0 PPG. Without checking I think it's nearly certain that is best in league. NYC is also 10-4-3, 1.94 PPG, since the MLS is back tournament, which must be top 3 if not best.

The 4 teams who beat NYC at the disjointed start of the season are all ahead of NYC in the standings.
Click to expand...

OMG! I feel a chart coming on. Anyone else feel it??? I can see projections and multi-color line graphs and the whole shebang!!


giphy.gif
 
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The important matchup between Orlando and Columbus is on tonight. 7:30 PM on ESPN+ for outside of the Orlando and Columbus markets.

I'll be cheering on for a draw with the hope that both teams lose on Decision Day, we win, and we jump to 3!
 
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