Death Watch Scenarios

Mikeylito

Mikeylito

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D.C. United will clinch a berth in the playoffs if ...

  • D.C. United win vs. Columbus Crew SC on Saturday
OR

  • D.C. United tie vs. Columbus Crew SC on Saturday AND
  • New York City FC lose or tie vs. San Jose Earthquakes on SaturdayAND
  • Orlando City lose or tie vs. Chicago Fire on Saturday
OR

  • New York City FC lose or tie vs. San Jose Earthquakes on SaturdayAND
  • Philadelphia Union lose or tie vs. Houston Dynamo on Sunday AND
  • Orlando City and Chicago Fire tie on Saturday
New York Red Bulls will clinch a berth in the playoffs if ...

  • New York Red Bulls win vs. Portland Timbers on Sunday
OR

  • New York Red Bulls tie vs. Portland Timbers on Sunday AND
  • New York City FC lose or tie vs. San Jose Earthquakes on SaturdayAND
  • Orlando City lose or tie vs. Chicago Fire on Saturday
OR

  • New York City FC lose or tie vs. San Jose Earthquakes on SaturdayAND
  • Philadelphia Union lose or tie vs. Houston Dynamo on Sunday AND
  • Orlando City and Chicago Fire tie on Saturday
Columbus Crew SC will clinch a berth in the playoffs if ...

  • Columbus Crew SC win vs. D.C. United on Saturday AND
  • Orlando City lose or tie vs. Chicago Fire on Saturday
New England Revolution will clinch a berth in the playoffs if ...

  • New England Revolution win vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday
OR

  • New England Revolution tie vs. Montreal Impact on Saturday AND
  • Orlando City lose or tie vs. Chicago Fire on Saturday
OR

  • Orlando City lose or tie vs. Chicago Fire on Saturday AND
  • New York City FC lose or tie vs. San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday
 
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Shouldn't we be hoping Chicago actually wins tonight, to give us a better chance to catch Montreal? That or a tie I guess. I don't think we'll be blacked out of MLS live for this one.
 
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ktdNYCFC said:
Shouldn't we be hoping Chicago actually wins tonight, to give us a better chance to catch Montreal? That or a tie I guess. I don't think we'll be blacked out of MLS live for this one.
Click to expand...
Yes. Our extremely slim chances depend upon Montreal losing and losing, and on us winning and winning. If we do that we stay ahead of Chicago no matter what. If we don't win and win we can't catch Montreal.
 
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Well Drogba just scored in the 39th. Maybe they can lose on Saturday...
 
And Montreal takes advantage to go up 2-1. We're so screwed. On the bright side, Romero picked up a yellow celebrating his goal and won't play Saturday vs DC.
 
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mgarbowski said:
He got a fifth yellow for taking his shirt off? What an idiot. Bad move at any time but especially when your next card gets a suspension.
Click to expand...

Also Ciman will be out too for getting a second yellow tonight. But we only have a 2% chance. Luckily, New York is home to the 1%, so we're doing alright.
 
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LionNYC said:
Also Ciman will be out too for getting a second yellow tonight. But we only have a 2% chance. Luckily, New York is home to the 1%, so we're doing alright.
Click to expand...
Ciman's another idiot just came off a suspension and gets 2 yellows. I saw the second one. Very avoidable.
 
A lot of talk of Drogba punching last night. Maybe another suspension coming up for Montreal.
 
I was engrossed with the Pope's visit to New York City last night; so I kust caught a replay of last night's match between the Red Bulls and the Lions. Man, I don't think the Red Bulls even tried very hard.

Now, it's on to Toronto to watch their match vs the Fire.
I suppose I'm asking for the impossible here.

I love the combination of Chromecast and MLS Live.
 
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MagnusPax said:
Now who is on death watch?
Click to expand...

Orlando's max is 47. Ours is 46, Philly's Is 43. Chicago is DEAD. So:

Columbus clinches berth with win or tie.
New England clinches berth with win or tie.
DC United clinches berth with win.
Toronto clinches berth with win and Orlando loss/tie.

Philadelphia eliminated with Phi loss/tie or Montreal win
Orlando eliminated with Mon win (which is also an Orlando loss)+Toronto win/tie (wins is tiebreaker; Tor would have more wins)

NYCFC eliminated if:
NYCFC loss+Mon win
NYCFC tie+Toe win/tie+Mon win.

Also worth noting that first tiebreaker is number of wins. Our max is 13, but most of the teams we're chasing have that other than Montreal (12). After that is GD, which is not great for us: -5. Others are Mon(+3), Tor (0), DC (-2), and Orlando (-11).

At this point, I think our best hope is to beat DCU and hope DC continues to crumble and loses its last two matches (home at Chi, away at Columbus). Can't see Tor or Montreal not getting to 46.
 
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Looking at this again, I think NYC makes it in if NYC wins out and DC loses to us and then draws once and loses once. That puts us even on points (46) with GD the next tiebreaker. Ours is -5 and theirs is -2. Three wins and at minimum ours is -2; two losses and at minimum theirs would be -4, putting NYCFC into the playoffs.

So basically we need to beat DC and then become the biggest Chicago Fire and Columbus Crew fans on the planet.
 
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Columbus could definitely beat DC but can a Chicago team with nothing left to play draw or win?
 
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