As background to the X discussion, I originally responded to the MLS Moves account which I have since muted. It sometimes has info on deals but I can get that here and his takes on other MLS-related topics are tiresome. Re the Apple deal, he's been saying for 3 years that it's a disaster and has few viewers and losing money. There's no evidence for this. There's also no public evidence for the opposite. We don't know, which allows for speculation but not the unfounded assertions of certainty which he keeps making. It's fair not to trust the vague viewership assurances occasionally shared by Apple or MLS, but he's the type to assert with confidence that they're lying. It's clear that he simply hates the experience. Which is his prerogative. Some people hate Apple, or prefer cable, or hate streaming, or whatever. But just because they prefer a different option is not evidence that the deal is not working, and a fair number of online people have been making the same evidence free claims. It's very tiresome.
This weekend, he just kept posting that the deal revision proved that Apple is losing money and wants out. When at least a dozen people respond with points similar to mine, he just makes a new post saying the same thing. No evidence and no reasoning. Just conclusions. It's tedious.
On the other hand, you came up with a theory for why Apple might not be happy, and also acknowledge you don't really have evidence. It was speculation that's both thoughtful, interesting and worth my time to consider! That's something MLS Moves can't provide.
WRT your theory, I guess it could be so. I think I read it's a buyout, which would imply a fixed cost. If so, and the buyout price is not worth paying then Apple is not doing so bad. If as you theorize it is not a pure option but has triggers and if Apple is not confident that thee trigger items are not met, then IMO its probably not doing so bad on that account. But these are probablies based on my judgment and maybe I'm wrong.
Playing steel-man against myself, I can make a case that maybe MLS wants out that I think is more plausible than Apple does. MLS had no 2027 option and so moving the deal termination to 2029 from 2032 could mean it was the one pushing for an earlier exit. Maybe it's disappointed with the walled garden, and that's also why it's agreeing with Apple to open it up somewhat. OTOH it might be that MLS wants out because, ironically, the deal worked pretty damn well such that MLS believes it now has confidential streaming subscription and viewership data that it can use to get more money when the deal ends. I don't know if either scenario is true, but IMO they're more plausible than the nonsense MLS Moves is peddling.
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