He’s the only one who gets a corner kick over the first defender. Maxi’s are brutal.
MLS - July 16 - Orlando (Away)
- Thread starter LionNYC
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We're in 6th, sorted by points per game, a hair above Orlando and a few hairs above Red Bull. Here's a quick chart. There's a pretty clear top 5, or 4 and a half maybe, and then we currently lead the second tier, in pole position for those sweet sweet "away" playoff spots 
ZYanksRule
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We're in 6th, sorted by points per game, a hair above Orlando and a few hairs above Red Bull. Here's a quick chart. There's a pretty clear top 5, or 4 and a half maybe, and then we currently lead the second tier, in pole position for those sweet sweet "away" playoff spots
View attachment 14042
We have successfully treaded water until reinforcements arrived in the summer. Shockingly well considering the roster, too. Hopefully we can go on a run now that we have (at least) a DP No. 10 coming after our next game.
we need more than a DP #10. but it's a start. not sure nico is going to change anything for us if his fellow midfielders are oneil and perea. we need parks back and honestly, i'd rather have shore on the field instead of oneil. i just haven't been all that impressed.
also - watched the highlights. perea screams with joy on the first goal then remembers he used to play at orlando.
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Those 10 games after Leagues Cup are the season. I'm sure Nico will be fully integrated by then and starting. He should solve a lot of issues, especially our movement in the attack and our ability to distribute the ball into the box rather than flitting around the edges of it.
But the biggest question is Keaton. We're so much better with him, and we haven't figured out how to be good without him.
ZYanksRule
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One more thing: Our coach was wearing a hoodie in Orlando in July.
Pascal might be a psychopath.
Pascal might be a psychopath.
Woke up and watched the highlights this morning. My 9-YO was jubilant.
Now in car heading to national park. Just finished watching the late games on MLS 360.
Now in car heading to national park. Just finished watching the late games on MLS 360.
This lion is skinny and hungry. It was not able to feed last night. 
Marito
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Also considering that Keaton, who is probably our most important player, has been available for 50% of minutes or less.
twsj91
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We're in 6th, sorted by points per game, a hair above Orlando and a few hairs above Red Bull. Here's a quick chart. There's a pretty clear top 5, or 4 and a half maybe, and then we currently lead the second tier, in pole position for those sweet sweet "away" playoff spots
View attachment 14042
Playoff Status claims we have a 7% chance of finishing Fourth or higher. I find that hard to believe. As you note, there is a huge gap between 5 and 6 in the East table right now, and another sizable gap between 4 and 5. Here is my old PPG table as of this morning:
NYCFC is Sixth by PPG, and on a pace for 52-53 points. Columbus projects to 60-61, but most importantly, Fourth-Place Miami projects to 64-65 points. For NYC to get 64 points, we need to win 10 of the last 12 games, or 9 wins, no losses, and 3 ties. To reach Fourth at fewer than 64 points we need at least 2 of the top 5 to stumble. Here's a sample set of finishes at assorted point levels:
I don't think either will happen, but it is more likely that NYCFC falls below 8 (last guaranteed home game spot) or 9 (last playoff spot), than rises up to 4. And note that even finishing with 59 points requires a bit more than 2 PPG aka something like 7 wins and just 1 loss. It would be very hard to get that high, so the 1-5 teams would need to stumble quite a bit to help us.
Reminder, teams below 4th Place just don't win MLS Cup. I ignore Pre-2012, when the league was very different and also sometimes had a single table, or pseudo-combined tables where the conference standings were separate but playoffs were mixed and spots earned as if single table.*
Starting in 2012 things became more like today, subject to expansion and added playoff spots. The league has consistently had separate tables, and separate conference playoffs with separate seeding within each conference over that period.
In that 13 year era, the team with the hardest path to MLS Cup who actually won was the 2012 Galaxy, who finished 4th in the West when 5 teams made the playoffs per conference. They had to win a 1 game Play-in, then zero home advantage to the end. Overall 3 teams including that Galaxy team won the Cup after finishing 4th. Three teams won after finishing Third. Five teams won while finishing Second, and 2 won after finishing First.
The seeming dominance of 2 over 1 is probably noise. What matters is 7 of 13 finished 1 or 2, and 10 of 13 finished 1-3. Finishing 4th is quite long odds, and below that much worse. It can and probably will happen someday. But rare things happen rarely.
It's bad luck I suppose that our best potential point total since 2022 will come in a year when the East is absolutely stacked up top. The Fourth place finishes in the East the previous five years were clustered around 51-55 points. That is a makable target range for this team. But also maybe this might be how MLS will be the next few years. It's not implausible that this will be an era when a handful of teams exploit the various roster tools much better than the big mushy middle and separate themselves. That's hard to predict, but Lee and CFG need to be ready for that possibility. Even the West (much weaker than the East this year) is projecting to have a 4th place team at 59-60 points, with a big gap to 52-53 for Fifth Place. This might be the new normal.
As for this year, we're already at a point, with more than a third of the season remaining, where winning MLS Cup is probably in the 0-2% range of likelihood.
* FWIW, the pre-2012 Cup Winners also predominantly come from the top of the table. There are exceptions, but it's not extremely different from the more recent history. It is just a lot harder to categorize and summarize.
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So, in other words, we got 'em right where we want 'em ...
All joking aside, we should make the playoffs, but things would really have to go right for us to make any kind of run. The biggest single question in my mind is Keaton. Not only is his absence awful for us from a competitive standpoint, but his situation does not look great right now. I'm very worried about him.
The good news is, after Sporting we get three Leagues Cup matches, all in the metropolitan area, so there's plenty of time to integrate Nico and maybe get some of the young guys more run — and maybe work in some more signings (*hint hint* David). The only real travel over the last 10 MLS matches is to Cincinnati and Chicago, pretty short trips.
Being so close to home for the stretch run can only help.
But we're not getting anywhere if we don't play better. The first half yesterday was downright painful.
lol ok i noticed that but was he even in the team in 2020 when that penalty shootout happened? i thought he was on loan that year.
I mean, 7% is not very high haha. But yeah, top 4 feels very very unlikely. That website (which is very cool and crunchy btw) says they account for strength of schedule, so maybe that's what bumps us up to the 7%? Not sure what else is in their formula. Maybe it is in the fine print somewhere.
To be sure their algorithm and data is probably more reliable than me vibing that it seems too high, which is all I'm doing. Even if it is informed vibing.
7% comes out to 1 in 15 more or less. Right or wrong that's not as rare as I would expect given the PPG of the top 4 teams, NYC's PPG, and the 12 remaining games to bridge the gap. If they run 150 simulations of the rest of the season NYC should make the playoffs 10 times at 7% in those 150 simulations.
I'll take it. I don't really believe it but I'll take it.
