MLS - July 25 - Orlando (Home)

[mgarbowski]

damn, NYCFC scored five goals and still didn’t outperform their xG.

Non-rounded off it was 4.52 according to Opta (where I thought MLS gets its data but now I'm not sure) so we did exceed to some extent. Also, 2 of the goals (Maxi and Taty) were tap-ins off rebounds. It was impossible for NYCFC to have scored on all 4 of those shots, so ASA has a very useful Team XG stat that collapses the xG for those situations. ASA also calculates the total shot by shot xG at 4.52 but the Team xG was 3.99.

For the season, NYCFC has 25.85 Team xGF and 25 Goals plus 1 gifted Own Goal so we're as close to performing at expectations as possible on offense.

 

[Gotham Gator]

For the season, NYCFC has 25.85 Team xGF and 25 Goals plus 1 gifted Own Goal so we're as close to performing at expectations as possible on offense.

Interesting. That stat shows that our problem is not finishing, it's that our goals have been more streaky that would be typical.

8 games with 1 goal
4 games with 2 goals
2 games with 5 goals

 

[SoupInNYC]

Orlando was out of subs, so he couldn't be subbed.

Listen, NYCFC would have been well within their rights to play hard right up to the final whistle. But at 5-0, there was no need to and I'm glad they called off the dogs with Gallese in the situation he was in. If the game was in doubt, sure -- you gotta do what you gotta do. But in this situation, with the lead they had, it was the right thing to do.

I think there's a solution that would make everyone happy here.

Put Schlegel in goal and sub Gudi back on to take the PK. Redemption time.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Gallese appeared to hurt himself trying to draw a foul from Thiago who looked like he wasn’t going to make contact with Gallese until he swung his leg out.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1419449265554870272

 

[Shwafta]

ALL of the gluten free options were closed yesterday. What the hell

And kosher as well.

 

[mgarbowski]

Maxi cost Taty an assist by scoring off his own tap in instead of his first shot, which actually had a higher xG value.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I think there's a solution that would make everyone happy here.

Put Schlegel in goal and sub Gudi back on to take the PK. Redemption time.

Honestly, the solution in a 5-0 game in the 91st minute is to blow the damn whistle and end the game. The referee should have ended it with Gallese limping around like that.

 

[Kjbert]

And kosher as well.

Kind of unacceptable.

 

[mgarbowski]

Honestly, the solution in a 5-0 game in the 91st minute is to blow the damn whistle and end the game. The referee should have ended it with Gallese limping around like that.

When England beat Ukraine 4-0 in the Euros knockout stage, there was zero added time at the end of the game, which is basically impossible to justify by any strict application but nobody cared.

 

[mgarbowski]

Last week I said that NYCFC's H/A adjusted remaining schedule PPG was 1.35, but I didn't notice a hole in my data. In fact, it was about 1.19 and after playing Orlando is 1.17 on a H/A adjusted PPG measure. Seeing the remaining PPG go down after a home game is unusual but Orlando has a 1.38 Away PPG even after yesterday. The remaining schedule really is quite easy compared to so far.

Next 4 games are a pretty easy: (Not in order) Home to Columbus and Miami, and Away to Chicago and Toronto (neither very good even at home). Highest H/A PPG is Chicago at 1.20, average 1.13.
Then 5 real tough ones: Away to Philly, Red Bulls, Nashville and New England with a home game against New England in the middle. Lowest H/A PPG is hosting the Revs (1.67 Away PPG). Average 2.07
Final 11 is as currently measured, a cakewalk: Home to Dallas, Red Bulls, Nashville, DC, Chicago and Philly. Away to Cincinnati, Chicago, Red Bulls, Atlanta, and Miami. Of those, only the game in RBA represents H/A PPG above 1.30. The average (as of now) is 0.78. Note that both Dallas and Chicago have 0 Away points so far.

The H/A PPG played to date is 1.46, tied for fifth hardest.

TL/DR: Recipe is to accumulate big points for 4 games, tread water for 5, then get all the pointz in the final 11.

 

[mgarbowski]

Addendum to my England-Ukraine anecdote: It truly made no difference because it was a knockout game. As has been pointed out, in MLS regular season, Euro group stages, and many other leagues, Goal Differential can be important. I still have no issue ending the game early in a rout with an injured player (especially but not only a keeper) and no subs left.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Addendum to my England-Ukraine anecdote: It truly made no difference because it was a knockout game. As has been pointed out, in MLS regular season, Euro group stages, and many other leagues, Goal Differential can be important. I still have no issue ending the game early in a rout with an injured player (especially but not only a keeper) and no subs left.

And it's not even the first tiebreaker. In MLS, wins are the first tiebreaker. Considering how few ties we have, we're likely to win that tiebreaker against any other team. And we are tied for the 2nd best GD in MLS. It would be a surprise if that one goal we could have scored against an injured Gallese will hurt us at the end.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Addendum to my England-Ukraine anecdote: It truly made no difference because it was a knockout game. As has been pointed out, in MLS regular season, Euro group stages, and many other leagues, Goal Differential can be important. I still have no issue ending the game early in a rout with an injured player (especially but not only a keeper) and no subs left.

I agree with you. I just wanted to see who Ronny would give the PK to.

Likely Maxi, but maybe he hands it off to Jasson or Gray to get the club's historic first homegrown goal? Or does he give it to Santi Rodriguez to get a goal under his belt? Or what about brining up Barraza and taking a chance at a keeper goal.

It would have been a waste of a question to ask during the post-game presser last night, but I really do wanna know.

 

[Gotham Gator]

And kosher as well.

As well as all the options that weren't crap.

 

[mgarbowski]

I agree with you. I just wanted to see who Ronny would give the PK to.

Likely Maxi, but maybe he hands it off to Jasson or Gray to get the club's historic first homegrown goal? Or does he give it to Santi Rodriguez to get a goal under his belt? Or what about brining up Barraza and taking a chance at a keeper goal.

It would have been a waste of a question to ask during the post-game presser last night, but I really do wanna know.

Oh yeah. A part of me wanted that PK. I would not criticize the ref for awarding it even if he had to go to VAR, but I lean in favor of how it was handled, and would be ok with ending things a little earlier too.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Honestly, the solution in a 5-0 game in the 91st minute is to blow the damn whistle and end the game. The referee should have ended it with Gallese limping around like that.

In the referee's defense, he had signaled for a corner when the keeper went back down. At that point, he had to let us at least take the corner, and then he quickly blew the whistle even though there should have been 20-30 seconds left.

 

[moogoo]

I agree with you. I just wanted to see who Ronny would give the PK to.

Likely Maxi, but maybe he hands it off to Jasson or Gray to get the club's historic first homegrown goal? Or does he give it to Santi Rodriguez to get a goal under his belt? Or what about brining up Barraza and taking a chance at a keeper goal.

It would have been a waste of a question to ask during the post-game presser last night, but I really do wanna know.

I was suprised no one asked about isi to see if there is an injury concern there. did you find anything out about this?

 

[SoupInNYC]

I was suprised no one asked about isi to see if there is an injury concern there. did you find anything out about this?

No, that didn't come up. There wasn't a whole lot of time for questions for Ronny. I think I had the second one and asked about the reason for him switching Medina and Maxi coming out of the hydration break.

We should have a pre-game presser on Wednesday and I'll try to remember this.

I would love it if every presser began with a quick rundown of injuries so nobody has to waste their question asking about it.

 

[LionNYC]

First time I can remember hearing "Where's our stadium?" chanted by the fans.

 

[moogoo]

First time I can remember hearing "Where's our stadium?" chanted by the fans.

personally, i think it's in bad taste. when you're at the stadium, you're there for the players and the team. not a time to protest and air your grievances with the front office.