NYCFC v Philly Postmatch

I agree with you on point #1. As for question 2, I don't think we are getting worse, I think Orlando showed the entire league how to beat our system and we have done little to adjust:

1. Let us have all the possession we want
2. Have one forward press high and try to force mistakes from our goalie and D as we try to play from the back
3. If we successfully cross midfield drop back and make us try to break you down
4. Use the possession you are giving us to draw our FBs into attack and our CBs as far forward as possible as they try to maintain our high line defense.
5. When the ball turns over counter and finish
6. Once the lead is secure park the bus

Currently PV still seems to see having possession and chances as a success and doesn't change the approach under the assumption that goals will come and we are just unlucky. It will be interesting to see which comes first success within the current system or a dramatic change in tactics.

Well said. But part of that is just how Orlando plays in general. They did the same thing against the Red Bulls last night. And while I think the Red Bulls created better chances than we did, it still nearly worked out for Orlando.
 
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I agree with the plan against us, I think we have been unlucky not to score first which would allow us a much better game. We have no answers once we are down, and we have been down 6 games in a row now.

I would say our talent is much better than last year, and if last year's pattern holds, once we start to mesh and play better, I think we will be better than we were last year. Hopefully, better enough to make playoffs, where the hot team wins.
Yes, getting the first goal is key since it begs for the other team to have to press. We saw that in the first game when our passing lanes were wide open and should have had about 8 goals. Luck is part of the game and we've had some seriously bad shooting - is that due to bad luck, or bad fundamentals - I have no idea. But I wholeheartedly agree that in time we're going to be better than last year, and part of that is getting the right players together every week for continuity.....
 
I agree with you on point #1. As for question 2, I don't think we are getting worse, I think Orlando showed the entire league how to beat our system and we have done little to adjust:

1. Let us have all the possession we want
2. Have one forward press high and try to force mistakes from our goalie and D as we try to play from the back
3. If we successfully cross midfield drop back and make us try to break you down
4. Use the possession you are giving us to draw our FBs into attack and our CBs as far forward as possible as they try to maintain our high line defense.
5. When the ball turns over counter and finish
6. Once the lead is secure park the bus

Currently PV still seems to see having possession and chances as a success and doesn't change the approach under the assumption that goals will come and we are just unlucky. It will be interesting to see which comes first success within the current system or a dramatic change in tactics.
100%. I've been thinking this for weeks, especially that other teams are letting us have possession and playing to score on counters, long balls, set plays and random Saunders moments. And it scares me that other people are affirming this because if we're right, and I'm able to figure this out when PV seems not to, then we're in trouble. I basically started studying soccer 2 years ago. I'd rather be wrong.
 
The biggest problem we have is that we have no natural leader on the pitch. Villa is not a leader who will get others playing for him. We need someone who can take command and be the managers voice on the pitch. That is more difficult to do than say of course.

I am honestly not surprised we have been struggling once again. The recruitment of Lampard and Pirlo has been a disaster and both need to be moved on. We need younger and hungrier DP's.

As for the game, I thought we were too slow at the beginning of it and allowed them to boss us for the first 30 minutes. Once again we showed weakness in the wide areas and in protecting the defence. The midfield needs to be improved in the next window. Having said that if Villa had his shooting boots on we could have come away with something from the game.

I thought we played a lot better in the second half, but our defensive frailties were there for all to see. The only thing I would criticise PV for was switching Shelton and Mendoza. I thought both had the beating of their defenders and they were less dangerous once they were switched. In all honesty I believe PV realises he hasn't the squad he needs to compete as he would like. This I think is resulting in him trying different formations and players. Whether he is good enough to mould a team in the long term is a valid argument. I would be inclined to leave that until the end of the season to see if he can bring in players that he feels can make a difference.
 
So we're not losing because we can't slice through defenses, we're losing because we've been getting unlucky and have to always play from behind.

K.
 
One thing that is painfully obvious is that we do not have any type of chemistry whatsoever on the pitch. This is one thing that I was hoping to be better at this year but alas it hasn't been. This is what happens when you have an expansion team with a new coach and new players from scratch and you follow that up with firing that coach and getting rid of that system and bring someone new to teach and implement a new system.
 
This team looks exactly like their win/lose/draw record indicates on the pitch.

Watch any other MLS match from this past weekend and we are the cream of the garbage crop.
 
I started tracking this last year, but the odd thing is that then the complaints were that the black jersey was cursed and we should just play in the blue as much as possible.



This year the HypnoKit is 1-0-0 and the Baby Blues are 0-fer-everything: 3 points, all from ties, in 6 games.

CUME Primary Kit: 7-14-9, 30 points in 30 games for a 1.0 PPG.
CUME Secondary Kits: 4-6-1, 13 points in 11 games for a 1.182 average.

The bottom line is the team sucks no matter what it wears.


Love your analysis!

had me in stitches :D:D:D I seriously say give the HypnoKit time to work.
 
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At least one thing has been consistent this season, more fights off the field than goals on it. Not a good look on either front.


Agree and the referring has not been favorable either.
 
View attachment 4764
Why do so many people keep saying this when we lead the league in shots per game?

I guess I should've said "Nobody but Villa ever shoots, so I kind of understand when Villa gets annoyed and starts to force things." We lead the league in shots per game, but it's all Villa, and often shitty shots out of frustration. Mendoza's shots always seem like they're from 40 yards out too.

Here are our stats on shots and SOG per match:
NYCFC.png

And here's a good team (our upcoming opponent):
Montreal.png
 
I guess I should've said "Nobody but Villa ever shoots, so I kind of understand when Villa gets annoyed and starts to force things." We lead the league in shots per game, but it's all Villa, and often shitty shots out of frustration. Mendoza's shots always seem like they're from 40 yards out too.

Here are our stats on shots and SOG per match:
Well I've done some advanced data analysis on your chart and it seems we now know for sure that Josh Saunders truly sucks as he's near the bottom of the list. But apparently Iraola is slightly worse so I may be a little confused.
 
Here's another chart for you.

Cynical Summary: We're right on pace to match last year's shitty results.
Optimistic Summary: As long as we get at least 1 point total out of our next 3 matches, we're doing better than last season!

NYCFC Points.png
 
Here's another chart for you.

Cynical Summary: We're right on pace to match last year's shitty results.
Optimistic Summary: As long as we get at least 1 point total out of our next 3 matches, we're doing better than last season!
To me this looks a lot better. If we win two of this batch of 6 point matches, then one in one of the 24 or 28 point flat parts in the middle of the season and also one in the end of the season we'll be at or above the cutoff line for the playoffs. I think that's doable this year given how much of a better team we are (even if we've not played particularly better yet).
 
To me this looks a lot better. If we win two of this batch of 6 point matches, then one in one of the 24 or 28 point flat parts in the middle of the season and also one in the end of the season we'll be at or above the cutoff line for the playoffs. I think that's doable this year given how much of a better team we are (even if we've not played particularly better yet).

Yeah, hopefully we don't end the season with 3 straight losses while in the middle of the playoff hunt.

I like the optimistic view as well. Still very early, and can definitely capture a playoff spot.
 
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I guess I should've said "Nobody but Villa ever shoots, so I kind of understand when Villa gets annoyed and starts to force things." We lead the league in shots per game, but it's all Villa, and often shitty shots out of frustration. Mendoza's shots always seem like they're from 40 yards out too.

Here are our stats on shots and SOG per match:
View attachment 4771

And here's a good team (our upcoming opponent):
View attachment 4772
Your charts would be more visually accurate if the scale of our opponent's shots on goal was not 2x the height of ours - it skews the comparison. With the exception of Villa being overly selfish with his shots, the rest of our team is proportionally taking the same ratio of shots as our opponents' players. Villa is really the outlier, and with 2/3 of his shots not on goal, it can be argued he's making poor decisions (I.e. A shot that has zero chance is better than placing trust in a teammate to develop a better shot).
 
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I guess I should've said "Nobody but Villa ever shoots, so I kind of understand when Villa gets annoyed and starts to force things." We lead the league in shots per game, but it's all Villa, and often shitty shots out of frustration. Mendoza's shots always seem like they're from 40 yards out too.

Here are our stats on shots and SOG per match:
View attachment 4771

And here's a good team (our upcoming opponent):
View attachment 4772
Nice charts, and they show we are imbalanced compared to Montreal, but the charts also obscure what simple numbers would reveal: NYCFC excluding Villa shoots more than the Impact excluding Drogba. In fact, when you rank all MLS teams by that stat: Team Shots Per Game Excluding Its Most Prolific Shooter (TSPGEIMPS or SPG X-1, I fully expect one of these to catch on), we are ranked third in the league:
Screen Shot 2016-04-26 at 7.39.49 AM.png

Only the Red Bulls and Dallas take more shots than NYCFC when you exclude each team's most active shooters.

Our team takes a lot of shots, even when you don't count Villa. It it still not accurate to say "nobody but Villa ever shoots." It is, on the other hand, accurate to say "Both Villa and the rest of the team take lots of shots but not enough go in."
 
Here's another chart for you.

Cynical Summary: We're right on pace to match last year's shitty results.
Optimistic Summary: As long as we get at least 1 point total out of our next 3 matches, we're doing better than last season!

View attachment 4773
Now THIS is an awesome chart and analysis. You and I have something in common, despite our differences on the SPG issue.
 
Nice charts, and they show we are imbalanced compared to Montreal, but the charts also obscure what simple numbers would reveal: NYCFC excluding Villa shoots more than the Impact excluding Drogba. In fact, when you rank all MLS teams by that stat: Team Shots Per Game Excluding Its Most Prolific Shooter (TSPGEIMPS or SPG X-1, I fully expect one of these to catch on), we are ranked third in the league:
View attachment 4774

Only the Red Bulls and Dallas take more shots than NYCFC when you exclude each team's most active shooters.

Our team takes a lot of shots, even when you don't count Villa. It it still not accurate to say "nobody but Villa ever shoots." It is, on the other hand, accurate to say "Both Villa and the rest of the team take lots of shots but not enough go in."

How does a shots on goal comparison look?
 
How does a shots on goal comparison look?
I haven't found a source for detailed, player-by-player, shots on goal that is as easy to manipulate as whoscored was for the basic SOG, so that's more work than I'm willing/able to put in right now. As a team we're ranked third behind the Rapids and Galaxy, and Villa is ranked number one as a player, so our team excluding Villa is probably ranked a few spots below third but probably still top half at least, but that's an estimate. Everything is more compressed too since the numbers are of course much lower.
 
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Your charts would be more visually accurate if the scale of our opponent's shots on goal was not 2x the height of ours - it skews the comparison. With the exception of Villa being overly selfish with his shots, the rest of our team is proportionally taking the same ratio of shots as our opponents' players. Villa is really the outlier, and with 2/3 of his shots not on goal, it can be argued he's making poor decisions (I.e. A shot that has zero chance is better than placing trust in a teammate to develop a better shot).
Yeah, I know. Was just intending to show how lopsided it is (how much Villa stands out).
 
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