i think the thread is worth it even without the long analytical posts from Mark (which I like very much).
NYCFC Season Discussion 2025: Party Like It's 2023 (2024 If You're Lucky)
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
My point was kind of the opposite. I'm not planning to stop writing occasional analytical posts. I've already reduced the frequency considerably and I can't promise any specific intervals but they will still happen. But it seems that without my regular posts almost nobody thinks to post in this thread.
I just checked and there is exactly 1 post by someone other than me that was not posted within 48 hours after I wrote something here. It happens to be by you, on July 26 ( the most glorious and winning day in NYCFC history as it happens). With that one exception, there just no discussion here unless I initiate it. So I was thinking it might make sense to simply post in whatever thread is carrying the conversation at any given time.
It's certainly no burden to create this thread. I do like having my posts of this type collected, and it seems at least a couple others do as well. So maybe I'll just keep it going.
I really enjoy this thread and your analytics—it’s nice to have a place where the discussion stays focused on the bigger picture. I’ll admit I have a bad habit of just clicking “new posts” and jumping into the latest active thread instead of finding the one that best fits my thoughts. I’ll try to be better about that.
I think the roster’s constant state of incompleteness over the past three years has pulled a lot of general performance discussions out of threads like this one and into the roster thread. Hopefully, this is only temporary, and at some point the roster stabilizes. Right now, it feels like we’re stuck in a perpetual holding pattern, unable to fully discuss the team's performance until the roster is complete. I was just thinking the other day how much more enjoyable it was when debates centered on formations, tactics, player availability, and coaching decisions, rather than this lingering cloud of an unfinished roster that’s been hanging over everything since Taty left.
Oops I Said It Again, Maybe?
My worst take on this forum was in 2016 after a home loss to RSL. NYCFC's PPG was 1.20 after 15 games and only 8 of the remaining 19 games were at home. I more or less said that reaching the playoffs was functionally impossible. But NYC won 3 of the next 4 Away games and 5 of the next 6 overall. Those 6 games raised the PPG to 1.57. NYC finished with 1.59 PPG, second in the East.
This year I might have a candidate for my second worst. It still might not happen, and if it does it won't be as mistaken as 2016, but: on July 17 after 22 games NYC was in 6th place by PPG at 1.55 (projected 52 points), with a big gap to Miami in 4th at 1.90 (65 projected). Columbus was fifth projecting to 60 points. To reach 4th NYC needed to win 9-10 of the final 12 and also have 2 of the top 5 teams stumble. I did not say it could not happen but I was very skeptical.
Just 4 games later with 3 of them Away NYC is up to 1.69 PPG (58). Fourth PPG Place Nashville is at 1.79 (61). Columbus has stumbled and is behind NYC on PPG. Nashville went pointless on a 3-game road trip. On the other hand, Charlotte had just 1.39 PPG on July 17 and sat in ninth on the bubble. Now they are at 1.68, barely behind NYC with a 7 game win streak helped by 5 being at Home. Miami slipped a bit, and has even more games to play and therefore point opportunities but also congestion than NYCFC.
Earning a point total in the high 50s is now reasonable.
Many things can realistically happen now. The paradox of the PPG projections is that as you go deeper into the season, your PPG becomes increasingly a more accurate measure of what you are but the likelihood that you finish where you project goes down as the remaining sample size gets extra tiny. Most teams have just 6 games left and their finish will be highly affected by schedule, injuries, hot or cold goal streaks, luck, etc.
We probably still don't reach fourth place but it's no longer crazy if it happens. Playoff Status puts the current odds of 4th or higher for NYCFC at 23%. That was 7% on July 17 and I thought that was too high but now 23% seems right. Their other relevant odds for fourth or higher are:
Philly >90%
Cincinnati 75%
Nashville 74%
Miami 73%
Charlotte 27%
Orlando 24%
Columbus just 9-10%
Clinching
NYCFC has clinched finishing ahead of both Montreal and DC. The Magic Number (points earned by NYC or points dropped by the other team in question) for both Atlanta and Toronto is 1 and all but 100%. Magic number for New England is 9. Then Red Bull 14, Chicago 17, Chicago and Orlando both 22, and Columbus 23. You need to be above 6 teams to make the playoffs, above 7 to have a home game and above 8 to avoid the play-in. The numbers for fourth and higher are not worth tracking yet except to say the lowest fruit is Nashville at 25. But there are so many moving parts untIl then.
Is 2025 NYCFC Lucky, Good, or Both?
Yesterday I noted that Cincinnati is far exceeding it's underlying numbers. So is NYC, just not by as much. Both have a GD higher than expected, and a fairly high number of Points considering their actual GD. NYCFC underperforms its xG mostly because of Martinez, but more than makes it up on GA-xGA for factors that have less to do with Freese than you might think. But NYC also has a pretty solid record in 1 goal games plus draws. Cincinnatti is off the charts at 13-4-4. NYC is 9-5-5, which at 1.68 PPG would be the highest PPG NYC has ever had in 1 goal games. The highest to date is 2019 at 8-3-10 and 1.62. Is it the coach? Do Dome and Pascal get the credit? I'm agnostic but have doubts. One season samples are terrible.
NYCFC's lowest PPG in such games was MLS Cup year 2021 with a 6-9-9 record and 1.13 PPG. In the playoffs that year, we blew 1 goal leads twice against New England (one very late at '118) and again against Portland at the death and survived because of PK magic. Was Ronny terrible in close games and just lucky in some key PK moments? I doubt that also. I tend to the theory that 1-goal games are a mix of game management and luck but mostly luck. I'm open to the idea that a coach can do more to lose (or get bad draws) in such games than he can to win them (eg Cushing's caution was arguably detrimental) but I'm only half convinced of that.
And Away We Go
Winning 10 of 12 Away points raised the team Away PPG to 1.21 which is just OK. League average right now is 1.17 PPG Away. This stretch just dug the team out of the hole created by 1 win in the first 10 Away games. The good news is there are 5 Home games left and just 3 Away. The bad news is 2 of the Away are the Union and Red Bulls. Besides all the negative energy history at RBA, the 2025 Red Bulls have the 4th best Home record in MLS. Their Away record is abysmal.
We might need to go 5-0-0 at home to move up any further. Anything less than 4-0-1 is a problem if you're being ambitious.
My worst take on this forum was in 2016 after a home loss to RSL. NYCFC's PPG was 1.20 after 15 games and only 8 of the remaining 19 games were at home. I more or less said that reaching the playoffs was functionally impossible. But NYC won 3 of the next 4 Away games and 5 of the next 6 overall. Those 6 games raised the PPG to 1.57. NYC finished with 1.59 PPG, second in the East.
This year I might have a candidate for my second worst. It still might not happen, and if it does it won't be as mistaken as 2016, but: on July 17 after 22 games NYC was in 6th place by PPG at 1.55 (projected 52 points), with a big gap to Miami in 4th at 1.90 (65 projected). Columbus was fifth projecting to 60 points. To reach 4th NYC needed to win 9-10 of the final 12 and also have 2 of the top 5 teams stumble. I did not say it could not happen but I was very skeptical.
Just 4 games later with 3 of them Away NYC is up to 1.69 PPG (58). Fourth PPG Place Nashville is at 1.79 (61). Columbus has stumbled and is behind NYC on PPG. Nashville went pointless on a 3-game road trip. On the other hand, Charlotte had just 1.39 PPG on July 17 and sat in ninth on the bubble. Now they are at 1.68, barely behind NYC with a 7 game win streak helped by 5 being at Home. Miami slipped a bit, and has even more games to play and therefore point opportunities but also congestion than NYCFC.
Earning a point total in the high 50s is now reasonable.
Many things can realistically happen now. The paradox of the PPG projections is that as you go deeper into the season, your PPG becomes increasingly a more accurate measure of what you are but the likelihood that you finish where you project goes down as the remaining sample size gets extra tiny. Most teams have just 6 games left and their finish will be highly affected by schedule, injuries, hot or cold goal streaks, luck, etc.
We probably still don't reach fourth place but it's no longer crazy if it happens. Playoff Status puts the current odds of 4th or higher for NYCFC at 23%. That was 7% on July 17 and I thought that was too high but now 23% seems right. Their other relevant odds for fourth or higher are:
Philly >90%
Cincinnati 75%
Nashville 74%
Miami 73%
Charlotte 27%
Orlando 24%
Columbus just 9-10%
Clinching
NYCFC has clinched finishing ahead of both Montreal and DC. The Magic Number (points earned by NYC or points dropped by the other team in question) for both Atlanta and Toronto is 1 and all but 100%. Magic number for New England is 9. Then Red Bull 14, Chicago 17, Chicago and Orlando both 22, and Columbus 23. You need to be above 6 teams to make the playoffs, above 7 to have a home game and above 8 to avoid the play-in. The numbers for fourth and higher are not worth tracking yet except to say the lowest fruit is Nashville at 25. But there are so many moving parts untIl then.
Is 2025 NYCFC Lucky, Good, or Both?
Yesterday I noted that Cincinnati is far exceeding it's underlying numbers. So is NYC, just not by as much. Both have a GD higher than expected, and a fairly high number of Points considering their actual GD. NYCFC underperforms its xG mostly because of Martinez, but more than makes it up on GA-xGA for factors that have less to do with Freese than you might think. But NYC also has a pretty solid record in 1 goal games plus draws. Cincinnatti is off the charts at 13-4-4. NYC is 9-5-5, which at 1.68 PPG would be the highest PPG NYC has ever had in 1 goal games. The highest to date is 2019 at 8-3-10 and 1.62. Is it the coach? Do Dome and Pascal get the credit? I'm agnostic but have doubts. One season samples are terrible.
NYCFC's lowest PPG in such games was MLS Cup year 2021 with a 6-9-9 record and 1.13 PPG. In the playoffs that year, we blew 1 goal leads twice against New England (one very late at '118) and again against Portland at the death and survived because of PK magic. Was Ronny terrible in close games and just lucky in some key PK moments? I doubt that also. I tend to the theory that 1-goal games are a mix of game management and luck but mostly luck. I'm open to the idea that a coach can do more to lose (or get bad draws) in such games than he can to win them (eg Cushing's caution was arguably detrimental) but I'm only half convinced of that.
And Away We Go
Winning 10 of 12 Away points raised the team Away PPG to 1.21 which is just OK. League average right now is 1.17 PPG Away. This stretch just dug the team out of the hole created by 1 win in the first 10 Away games. The good news is there are 5 Home games left and just 3 Away. The bad news is 2 of the Away are the Union and Red Bulls. Besides all the negative energy history at RBA, the 2025 Red Bulls have the 4th best Home record in MLS. Their Away record is abysmal.
We might need to go 5-0-0 at home to move up any further. Anything less than 4-0-1 is a problem if you're being ambitious.
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Not going to change the post but the remaining possibles chart has one wrong entry. The 55 point line should be 3-3-2 and 1.375 PPG. You can see it has just 6 games instead of 8.
Against the three worst teams in the East (DC, Atlanta, Montreal), we are 1-3-1, with 4 points in 5 games (3 on the road). Man, I wish we had played up to par - against Montreal in particular.
Against the three best teams (by PPG - Philly, Cincy and Miami), we are 3-0-2, with 10 points in 4 games (2 on the road).
Against the three best teams (by PPG - Philly, Cincy and Miami), we are 3-0-2, with 10 points in 4 games (2 on the road).
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