I think what I’m imagining is different. I’m asking the question how does position influence PSxG going to zero.
NYCFC Season Discussion 2025: Party Like It's 2023 (2024 If You're Lucky)
- Thread starter mgarbowski
- Start date
Can you rephrase, not sure I completely understand what you are asking
Essentially I’m responding to mgarbowski ’s hypothesis that opponents PSxG being low against Freese is due to statistical randomness. That is certainly possible.
But what if Freese is particularly good at positioning himself or getting closer to the shooter in a way that makes the shooter shoot wide or high? Maybe this is already accounted for. I don’t know.
ASA and Fbref (opta) do not from what I understand but there is not enough data one way or the other. Something to come back to this summer.
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Midpoint
Let's compare League Rank and Actual Figures after 8 games (roughly 1/4 season) and at the halfway point. All numbers are from ASA unless noted. I mostly use ASA because it has the best sorting and filtering options, but it lacks some stats like non-penalty Goals.
Improvement everywhere but goals scored. Goals went down even as xGoals went up. The main culprit is Alonso Martinez. His 2024 G-xG was +6.72. So far in 2025 it is -4.06. That includes his 2 missed penalties out of 5. ASA doesn't offer non-Penalty xG. Per FBRef , his 2025 G-xG is -4.00 and the npG-npxG is -3.1. He has not been great (OK, not terrible either) taking penalties and his open play finishing is down as well. There was a lot of understandable skepticism as to whether Martinez could keep up his excellent 2024 finishing pace, and so far in 2025 the answer is no. Of course there's no reason to think his G-xG won't bounce back, at least to even, but no way to predict when that might happen and it does not have to.
Fortunately Wolf is taking up some of the slack on goals. Again from FBRef, all per 90:
Things that jump out, first Martinez: (1) the non-penalty goal drop, oof; (2). his npxG is down 17% which is also bad, and arguably more concerning; (3) his xAssists are up a bit even as his assists are down, but the latter just means his teammates aren't finishing his passes with goals, so good for him.
For Wolf, goals have more than doubled, xGoals are up 59%, but his assists and xA are both way down. I did not expect to see that. Not shown above, but his shots taken per game have increased by about an extra shot every 2 games, roughly a one-third percentage raise. He's stepping up in Santi's absence. I was ready to excuse Martinez's xG drop as a no-Santi effect but Wolf shows it could be otherwise.
The team on the whole has a -7.12 G-xG, coming in 25th in the league. Besides Martinez, culprits include Perea -1.47 and Maxi -0.84. Relative sharpshooters are Wolf +1.77 and Ilenic +0.44.
Forward Rankings
Now that Ojeda and Fernandez have a minimally meaningful number of minutes, I wanted to see where they rank in MLS. Combining 2024 and 2025, Ojeda has 1785 minutes and Fernandez 1815. So I set 1750 as a cutoff and checked where they rank in a few categories, and looked up our other forwards while I was at it. As it happens, there are exactly 100 players in MLS categorized as Striker or Winger by ASA with at least 1750 minutes in 2024-25. With 30 teams, the average number of forwards per team on this list in 3.33. It seems we have spread our minutes more than most teams, mostly as 2025 Fernandez and Ojeda have gotten the minutes taken by Bakrar, Jovan and Jones (and probably Santi) in 2024.
These are all /96 minutes ranks out of 100:
For goals, we have 1 player in the Top 10 and no other in the top 50. Fernandez sneaks into top 50 for G+A. Meanwhile, Ojeda's poor goal production is brought down to abysmal by his complete lack of assists. As much as Fernandez frustrates, it is clear why he gets more minutes than Ojeda at this point. Imagine if Bakrar produced anywhere near his work rate.
Defense and 'keeping
After 12 games I noted that our defense and goalkeeping were not as good as they seemed and benefitted from poor opponent shooting. Five games later (a very short sample, but then so is 12), things have improved. After 12 games, opponents generated 1.61 xG/96 and just 1.15 post shot xG. Since then thru 5 games opponents generate just 1.15 xG per game with a higher post shot xG of 1.35. So we're no longer benefitting from poor shooting opponents.
Meanwhile, Freese has stepped up. His G/xG through 12 games was 0.83, ranked 7th. He has now lowered his season G/xG to 0.79, ranked 4th.
Reliables
Can you guess the six players who have appeared in all 17 games?
Freese, Haak, Maxi, Wolf, Fernandez, Ojeda
The last one surprised me.
Who has played in 16 of 17 games?
Martinez, Martins, Shore, Bakrar
The last two shocked me. Shore made his debut in Game 2 and has not missed a game since. He also is 7th in total minutes played.
Odds/Ends
H/A adjusted opponent strength to date is 1.45 PPG, 9th hardest. Remaining is a bit easier at 1.34 PPG, 18th hardest. But the final quarter of the year is tough. The next 9 games are 1.17 opponent PPG, and the final 8 are 1.53. Hardest games by adjusted PPG include away at Charlotte (2.25) and Orlando (1.89) four days apart in July. August has Cincinnati away (2.13). Then September sees Miami (1.71) home and RB away (2.44) three days apart, with Philly away (2.00) to open October a week later. The other 12 games have opponents with adjusted PPG of 0.94. Anything earned from the tough 5 is bonus if we destroy the easier 12.
"Win at home, draw away" is what you say when your team gets 0.88 PPG away. Seven MLS teams have Away PPG of 1.50 or better. Thirteen teams get 1.25 or better Away. Only 2 teams have fewer Away wins than NYCFC. Scratching a point after going down 2-0 is a great job to be sure, but this team has been weak on the road since and including 2021 and needs to win more. From 2016 through 2020 NYCFC earned 1.325 Away over 80 games. 2021-2025 has 0.96 Away PPG over 76 games.
NYCFC has 0 points in 3 games against the West. The East excluding NYCFC has 19 W - 7L-13T against the West for 1.79 PPG. I guess it's better to lose against the West than against rivals for conference position, but when the rest of the East is feasting against the West it would help to keep up. From 2016-2021 NYCFC earned 1.84 PPG against the West, and 1.60 against the East. From 2022 to 2025 it has been 0.60 PPG against the West, and 1.48 against the East. Most of NYCFC's fall off in 2023-2025 can be traced to games against the West even though they represent just 17% of games played.
In sum, the games where you are tempted to excuse poor results -- Away and against the West -- are the games killing NYCFC.
Remaining inter-conference games are Dallas and SKC Away, and Seattle at Home to close out the year. The weakest home records of teams we play away are Montreal (0.43), SKC (1.14), Dallas (0.71), and Chicago (1.17). Winning at Dallas and SKC could help turn both trends in a better direction.
NYCFC currently sits 9th on the edge of the playoff line. The 2 teams directly behind NYCFC both have 2 games in hand.
Let's compare League Rank and Actual Figures after 8 games (roughly 1/4 season) and at the halfway point. All numbers are from ASA unless noted. I mostly use ASA because it has the best sorting and filtering options, but it lacks some stats like non-penalty Goals.
Stat | 8 Games Rank | 17 Games Rank | 8 Games Actual | 17 Games Actual |
Pts | 17-18 | 15-17 | 1.38 | 1.47 |
xPts | 21 | 14-15 | 1.23 | 1.40 |
GD | 15-16 | 13 (17 including OG) | 0.25 (0 w/OG) | 0.18 (0 w/OG) |
xGD | 13 | 11 | -0.21 | 0.12 |
GF | 12-15 | 19 | 1.38 | 1.18 |
xGF | 21 | 13 | 1.41 | 1.60 |
GA | 15-19 | 4 (7 including OG) | 1.13 (1.25 w/ OG) | 1.00 (1.18 w/ OG) |
xGA | 21 | 11 | 1.63 | 1.48 |
Improvement everywhere but goals scored. Goals went down even as xGoals went up. The main culprit is Alonso Martinez. His 2024 G-xG was +6.72. So far in 2025 it is -4.06. That includes his 2 missed penalties out of 5. ASA doesn't offer non-Penalty xG. Per FBRef , his 2025 G-xG is -4.00 and the npG-npxG is -3.1. He has not been great (OK, not terrible either) taking penalties and his open play finishing is down as well. There was a lot of understandable skepticism as to whether Martinez could keep up his excellent 2024 finishing pace, and so far in 2025 the answer is no. Of course there's no reason to think his G-xG won't bounce back, at least to even, but no way to predict when that might happen and it does not have to.
Fortunately Wolf is taking up some of the slack on goals. Again from FBRef, all per 90:
Things that jump out, first Martinez: (1) the non-penalty goal drop, oof; (2). his npxG is down 17% which is also bad, and arguably more concerning; (3) his xAssists are up a bit even as his assists are down, but the latter just means his teammates aren't finishing his passes with goals, so good for him.
For Wolf, goals have more than doubled, xGoals are up 59%, but his assists and xA are both way down. I did not expect to see that. Not shown above, but his shots taken per game have increased by about an extra shot every 2 games, roughly a one-third percentage raise. He's stepping up in Santi's absence. I was ready to excuse Martinez's xG drop as a no-Santi effect but Wolf shows it could be otherwise.
The team on the whole has a -7.12 G-xG, coming in 25th in the league. Besides Martinez, culprits include Perea -1.47 and Maxi -0.84. Relative sharpshooters are Wolf +1.77 and Ilenic +0.44.
Forward Rankings
Now that Ojeda and Fernandez have a minimally meaningful number of minutes, I wanted to see where they rank in MLS. Combining 2024 and 2025, Ojeda has 1785 minutes and Fernandez 1815. So I set 1750 as a cutoff and checked where they rank in a few categories, and looked up our other forwards while I was at it. As it happens, there are exactly 100 players in MLS categorized as Striker or Winger by ASA with at least 1750 minutes in 2024-25. With 30 teams, the average number of forwards per team on this list in 3.33. It seems we have spread our minutes more than most teams, mostly as 2025 Fernandez and Ojeda have gotten the minutes taken by Bakrar, Jovan and Jones (and probably Santi) in 2024.
These are all /96 minutes ranks out of 100:
For goals, we have 1 player in the Top 10 and no other in the top 50. Fernandez sneaks into top 50 for G+A. Meanwhile, Ojeda's poor goal production is brought down to abysmal by his complete lack of assists. As much as Fernandez frustrates, it is clear why he gets more minutes than Ojeda at this point. Imagine if Bakrar produced anywhere near his work rate.
Defense and 'keeping
After 12 games I noted that our defense and goalkeeping were not as good as they seemed and benefitted from poor opponent shooting. Five games later (a very short sample, but then so is 12), things have improved. After 12 games, opponents generated 1.61 xG/96 and just 1.15 post shot xG. Since then thru 5 games opponents generate just 1.15 xG per game with a higher post shot xG of 1.35. So we're no longer benefitting from poor shooting opponents.
Meanwhile, Freese has stepped up. His G/xG through 12 games was 0.83, ranked 7th. He has now lowered his season G/xG to 0.79, ranked 4th.
Reliables
Can you guess the six players who have appeared in all 17 games?
Freese, Haak, Maxi, Wolf, Fernandez, Ojeda
The last one surprised me.
Who has played in 16 of 17 games?
Martinez, Martins, Shore, Bakrar
The last two shocked me. Shore made his debut in Game 2 and has not missed a game since. He also is 7th in total minutes played.
Odds/Ends
H/A adjusted opponent strength to date is 1.45 PPG, 9th hardest. Remaining is a bit easier at 1.34 PPG, 18th hardest. But the final quarter of the year is tough. The next 9 games are 1.17 opponent PPG, and the final 8 are 1.53. Hardest games by adjusted PPG include away at Charlotte (2.25) and Orlando (1.89) four days apart in July. August has Cincinnati away (2.13). Then September sees Miami (1.71) home and RB away (2.44) three days apart, with Philly away (2.00) to open October a week later. The other 12 games have opponents with adjusted PPG of 0.94. Anything earned from the tough 5 is bonus if we destroy the easier 12.
"Win at home, draw away" is what you say when your team gets 0.88 PPG away. Seven MLS teams have Away PPG of 1.50 or better. Thirteen teams get 1.25 or better Away. Only 2 teams have fewer Away wins than NYCFC. Scratching a point after going down 2-0 is a great job to be sure, but this team has been weak on the road since and including 2021 and needs to win more. From 2016 through 2020 NYCFC earned 1.325 Away over 80 games. 2021-2025 has 0.96 Away PPG over 76 games.
NYCFC has 0 points in 3 games against the West. The East excluding NYCFC has 19 W - 7L-13T against the West for 1.79 PPG. I guess it's better to lose against the West than against rivals for conference position, but when the rest of the East is feasting against the West it would help to keep up. From 2016-2021 NYCFC earned 1.84 PPG against the West, and 1.60 against the East. From 2022 to 2025 it has been 0.60 PPG against the West, and 1.48 against the East. Most of NYCFC's fall off in 2023-2025 can be traced to games against the West even though they represent just 17% of games played.
In sum, the games where you are tempted to excuse poor results -- Away and against the West -- are the games killing NYCFC.
Remaining inter-conference games are Dallas and SKC Away, and Seattle at Home to close out the year. The weakest home records of teams we play away are Montreal (0.43), SKC (1.14), Dallas (0.71), and Chicago (1.17). Winning at Dallas and SKC could help turn both trends in a better direction.
NYCFC currently sits 9th on the edge of the playoff line. The 2 teams directly behind NYCFC both have 2 games in hand.
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It will be interesting to see how things continue to trend for Martinez. If he can't replicate his production from 2024 does he potentially return to the wing to make way for a high profile DP #9? Are we in need of a striker as opposed to a winger and we just don't know it yet?
This is really interesting. If you trust that xG will even out over time and just look at that stat, Alonso is a 10 goal scorer in 2024. Not great, but not bad in limited minutes in the #9 role. In 2025 he is on pace for 24 xG for the year. Pretty phenomenal. If one or the other is the aberration, you might be headed in dramatically different directions. But mostly I trust the G will move in the direction of the xG over time. For now, I'd trust in Alonso and sign that DP winger.
Bakrar's drop off is gobsmacking but not surprising to anyone who has watched. Fernandez putting up better numbers than Wolf is shocking.These are all /96 minutes ranks out of 100:
Totally agree with your shock. Crazy town.
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