Race for CCL Spot 2019

[adam]

Updated:

Wednesday 8/22:
NJ 1 @ NYC 1

Thursday 8/23:
CLB 1 @ CHI 1
DAL 1 @ HOU 1

Friday 8/24:
ATL @ ORL 8:00

Sunday 8/26:
DCU @ NJ 7:00
SEA @ POR 9:30

View attachment 9097

Updated:

Wednesday 8/22:
NJ 1 @ NYC 1

Thursday 8/23:
CLB 1 @ CHI 1
DAL 1 @ HOU 1

Friday 8/24:
ATL 2 @ ORL 1

Sunday 8/26:
DCU @ NJ 7:00
SEA @ POR 9:30



We haven't been this far behind Atlanta since July 9th. And then we had 2 matches in hand. We've never been even on matches played and 4 points behind them in the CCL race all season.

We can only hope Atlanta drops some points on this 4 match road stretch of theirs. They started with a win @ Orlando. Here's the full road trip:

@ Orlando 8/24 - W 2-1
@ DCU 9/2
@ COL 9/15
@ SJ 9/19

Our next few matches over that period:

@ CLB 9/1
NER 9/5
DCU 9/8

We have 2/3 at home and they have to play at Audi and 2 west coast matches (with an altitude change). But the schedule makers (and Yankees) did us no favors packing all our matches so close together. At the end of these matches both teams will have 5 matches remaining. I estimate we need to pick up at least 2 points on Atlanta over these games or we might not be able to catch them down the stretch.

ETA: For shits & giggles: NJ's next 4 matches to get to 5 games remaining over that same time period:

DCU 8/26
HOU 8/29
@ MTL 9/1
@ DCU 9/16

They also have 3 matches packed tightly together and then have to travel to Audi as as well. We really just need to keep pace with them which means winning all our home matches and hoping NJ drops points in both their away matches.

I'm noticing that DCU is going to have a lot to say over the next month in regards to the shield and CCL race as they face the murderers row of @ NJ 8/26, PHI 8/29, ATL 9/2, @ NYC 9/6, NJ 9/16. God bless Wayne Rooney and his magical disappearing/reappearing hair (except on 9/6).

 

[The Toe]

The more I watch this season, the more I think ATL is going to win the shield and the CCL spot on the combined table, but not win MLS Cup. A good defensive team is going to bunker them and get an away goal and draw in Atlanta and keep a clean sheet at home, and that'll be it. Yeah, it'll be probably unlikely, but teams have gotten too many points in Atlanta with that tactic with less on the line.

 

[mgarbowski]

The more I watch this season, the more I think ATL is going to win the shield and the CCL spot on the combined table, but not win MLS Cup. A good defensive team is going to bunker them and get an away goal and draw in Atlanta and keep a clean sheet at home, and that'll be it. Yeah, it'll be probably unlikely, but teams have gotten too many points in Atlanta with that tactic with less on the line.

Plus we played Atlanta better than anybody else has over 2 games. It was with Vieira, but I'm cautiously optimistic for if/when we meet in the playoffs.

 

[Ulrich]

The more I watch this season, the more I think ATL is going to win the shield and the CCL spot on the combined table, but not win MLS Cup. A good defensive team is going to bunker them and get an away goal and draw in Atlanta and keep a clean sheet at home, and that'll be it. Yeah, it'll be probably unlikely, but teams have gotten too many points in Atlanta with that tactic with less on the line.

Atlanta looked completely beatable last night versus Orlando, one of the worst teams in the league. If Orlando wasn’t so inept of moving the ball into the offenseive third after winning it, this happened constantly, they may very well have overrun ATL’s mediocre defense. Hell, even when they did get in the attacking zone, they got some nice looks, and this was done with a vanilla scheme that had little off the ball movement - they seriously play a very basic game of positioning and passing. That’s all to say that when Almiron and Martinez aren’t running at the defense, ATL looks vulnerable. They also may be gassed by the playoffs if Tata doesn’t rotate and rest the first 11 - it happened last season, and I expect it to happen again, because if their stars aren’t playing, specifically Martinez, they aren’t scoring - he has over half of their goals.

 

[mgarbowski]

Atlanta also has 0 wins in 6 games against NYC, RBNY, SKC, FCD, and POR. Four of those 6 games were at home. Their best win is 5-0 against LAFC (also at home). They benefited from 2 PKs and an LAFC red card in that game, but to be fair they were winning 2-0 thru 88 minutes before any of that happened. Those events just added to the GD. But, LAFC is notable for being 0-5-3 against the same top teams, so beating them is hardly a gold star for Atlanta. Atlanta's real strength this year is winning nearly every road game against lower competition, which is a trick nobody in MLS has managed for a while. It's quite impressive, but they'll need to do better to win MLS cup.

It's a shame that they will probably play Columbus first (ATL beat them 2x this year), while we likely get the Red Bulls, assuming a first round home game win. I think it is very unlikely ATL could get through both Red Bulls and us. Assuming we are stuck in third -- and there is still a chance we're not -- I probably prefer that RB passes Atlanta for this reason. I very much think we can beat Atlanta, and I like the Columbus/RB matchup, given the alternatives. Obviously it's best if we can climb to second, though, and avoid any possibility of having to play both ATL and RB in either order.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Atlanta also has 0 wins in 6 games against NYC, RBNY, SKC, FCD, and POR. Four of those 6 games were at home. Their best win is 5-0 against LAFC (also at home). They benefited from 2 PKs and an LAFC red card in that game, but to be fair they were winning 2-0 thru 88 minutes before any of that happened. Those events just added to the GD. But, LAFC is notable for being 0-5-3 against the same top teams, so beating them is hardly a gold star for Atlanta. Atlanta's real strength this year is winning nearly every road game against lower competition, which is a trick nobody in MLS has managed for a while. It's quite impressive, but they'll need to do better to win MLS cup.

It's a shame that they will probably play Columbus first (ATL beat them 2x this year), while we likely get the Red Bulls, assuming a first round home game win. I think it is very unlikely ATL could get through both Red Bulls and us. Assuming we are stuck in third -- and there is still a chance we're not -- I probably prefer that RB passes Atlanta for this reason. I very much think we can beat Atlanta, and I like the Columbus/RB matchup, given the alternatives. Obviously it's best if we can climb to second, though, and avoid any possibility of having to play both ATL and RB in either order.

What we want to root for in the upcoming ATL-RB match is constantly evolving. If Atlanta keeps up this pace, we may want an Atlanta win as they may be out of reach, but a NJ loss could help us take second and get the bye.

 

[mgarbowski]

I just realized reaching second won't prevent us from possibly playing both ATL and RB. Which I knew, but managed to forget and mess up the logic. Only first place definitely avoids that, assuming they stay top 3, which is near certain.
ETA: Everything else still stands.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I just realized reaching second won't prevent us from possibly playing both ATL and RB. Which I knew, but managed to forget and mess up the logic. Only first place definitely avoids that, assuming they stay top 3, which is near certain.
ETA: Everything else still stands.

We're going to have to face at least one of them no matter what, so to be honest I just want us to be peaking when we do. I firmly believe we can beat Atlanta based on our matchups earlier this season, and I'm cautiously optimistic we can take New Jersey, too. We've looked very good against the top teams in MLS all year.

 

[adam]

Wednesday 8/22:
NJ 1 @ NYC 1

Thursday 8/23:
CLB 1 @ CHI 1
DAL 1 @ HOU 1

Friday 8/24:
ATL 2 @ ORL 1

Sunday 8/26:
DCU 0 @ NJ 1
SEA 1 @ POR 0



We're at a rare moment where all top 4 teams have the same games remaining. And hot damn is this close. We're tied on wins with NJ, but 1 goal behind on GD. Even if we don't win this thing, we have to remember how important 2nd place can be.

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU @ NJ 8:00
DAL @ SJ 10:30
TOR @ POR 10:30

Saturday 9/1:
NJ @ MTL 7:30
POR @ NE 7:30
NYC @ CLB 8:00
HOU @ DAL 8:00

Sunday 9/2:
ATL @ DCU 7:30

Lots of CCL matches with NJ, DAL, & POR playing a double. For the first time all season NJ could pass us this week with 4 points in 2 matches and a loss by NYC at Austin Columbus. We NEED to win at Columbus for so many reasons, but a loss for them would drop their max points to 115, coupled with an Atlanta win getting them to 112, they could be 1 match away from CCL elimination by the Sunday night. Let's hope NJ's tight schedule starts to wear them down some, or many Lawerence is finally suspended for that punch in the Derby. I've given up hope that Atlanta will ever lose again, but a match at DCU would make sense as the place to drop points.

Speaking of Atlanta, I think we should realize that NYC has not slumped into 2nd place, but rather Atlanta has gone on an insane streak, never seen before in MLS history. See the chart below. When I started tracking this in late May, Atlanta was only on pace to reach 118.3 points and averaging 1.74 ppg. Compare that to now. Over the last 14 matches they've upped that average to 1.82 ppg and now project at 123.5. NJ did the same moving their average from 1.60 - 1.70 and their projected points from 108.8 - 115.6. NYC moved from 1.74-.175 and 118.3 - 119. They've actually improved! There was no NYC slump, just both Atlanta & NJ winning at a record setting pace, which makes it appear as a slump in comparison.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Wednesday 8/22:
NJ 1 @ NYC 1

Thursday 8/23:
CLB 1 @ CHI 1
DAL 1 @ HOU 1

Friday 8/24:
ATL 2 @ ORL 1

Sunday 8/26:
DCU 0 @ NJ 1
SEA 1 @ POR 0

View attachment 9100

We're at a rare moment where all top 4 teams have the same games remaining. And hot damn is this close. We're tied on wins with NJ, but 1 goal behind on GD. Even if we don't win this thing, we have to remember how important 2nd place can be.

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU @ NJ 8:00
DAL @ SJ 10:30
TOR @ POR 10:30

Saturday 9/1:
NJ @ MTL 7:30
POR @ NE 7:30
NYC @ CLB 8:00
HOU @ DAL 8:00

Sunday 9/2:
ATL @ DCU 7:30

Lots of CCL matches with NJ, DAL, & POR playing a double. For the first time all season NJ could pass us this week with 4 points in 2 matches and a loss by NYC at Austin Columbus. We NEED to win at Columbus for so many reasons, but a loss for them would drop their max points to 115, coupled with an Atlanta win getting them to 112, they could be 1 match away from CCL elimination by the Sunday night. Let's hope NJ's tight schedule starts to wear them down some, or many Lawerence is finally suspended for that punch in the Derby. I've given up hope that Atlanta will ever lose again, but a match at DCU would make sense as the place to drop points.

Speaking of Atlanta, I think we should realize that NYC has not slumped into 2nd place, but rather Atlanta has gone on an insane streak, never seen before in MLS history. See the chart below. When I started tracking this in late May, Atlanta was only on pace to reach 118.3 points and averaging 1.74 ppg. Compare that to now. Over the last 14 matches they've upped that average to 1.82 ppg and now project at 123.5. NJ did the same moving their average from 1.60 - 1.70 and their projected points from 108.8 - 115.6. NYC moved from 1.74-.175 and 118.3 - 119. They've actually improved! There was no NYC slump, just both Atlanta & NJ winning at a record setting pace, which makes it appear as a slump in comparison.


View attachment 9101

To add perspective to what Atlanta's done, they are currently at 54 points with 8 games remaining. TFC had 69 points last year.

They need to average 1.875 PPG over their remaining 8 to match that, or really just win 5 of them. They are currently averaging 2.08 on the season (2.00 at home and 2.17 on the road).

ESPN also showed a stat on Friday that Josef Martinez had scored in 7 straight road games (now up to 8).

 

[SoupInNYC]

Also, Atlanta needs 19 points over their remaining 8 games to break LAG's record of PPG over a season (2.13 in 1998).

 

[LionNYC]

To add perspective to what Atlanta's done, they are currently at 54 points with 8 games remaining. TFC had 69 points last year.

They need to average 1.875 PPG over their remaining 8 to match that, or really just win 5 of them. They are currently averaging 2.08 on the season (2.00 at home and 2.17 on the road).

ESPN also showed a stat on Friday that Josef Martinez had scored in 7 straight road games (now up to 8).

He's tied for the record for goals in consecutive games (home or away) set last year by Diego Valeri (POR) at 9. I think he's breaking that this season. It's crazy just how good Atlanta are so quickly. We had that shit 2015 season and I'm pissed that Atlanta fans aren't likely to go through something similar anytime soon.

 

[mgarbowski]

Also, Atlanta needs 19 points over their remaining 8 games to break LAG's record of PPG over a season (2.13 in 1998).

Any MLS PPG records before 2000[?] deserve an asterisk for not having ties. If Atlanta can exceed that record regardless, my goodness.

 

[Ulrich]

Any MLS PPG records before 2000[?] deserve an asterisk for not having ties. If Atlanta can exceed that record regardless, my goodness.

But will it matter if they get tossed first round of playoffs???

I say that seriously, because I value the SS, but it doesn’t seem that the league and many fans do. Tata also has a history of burning out lineups with little rotation, we saw that last season with Atlanta and they’re looking like they’re teetering now and he’s done it with other teams, and maybe Tata just hasn’t figured out the sweet spot of rotation for a league with playoffs (as opposed to multiple inseason cups)..... it would not surprise me if Atlanta flames out in the playoffs after setting the record for pts/SS during the regular season - it also wouldn’t surprise me if they win it all (with 5 red cards / 3pks helping them in the playoffs).

 

[adam]

Wednesday 8/22:
NJ 1 @ NYC 1

Thursday 8/23:
CLB 1 @ CHI 1
DAL 1 @ HOU 1

Friday 8/24:
ATL 2 @ ORL 1

Sunday 8/26:
DCU 0 @ NJ 1
SEA 1 @ POR 0

View attachment 9100

We're at a rare moment where all top 4 teams have the same games remaining. And hot damn is this close. We're tied on wins with NJ, but 1 goal behind on GD. Even if we don't win this thing, we have to remember how important 2nd place can be.

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU @ NJ 8:00
DAL @ SJ 10:30
TOR @ POR 10:30

Saturday 9/1:
NJ @ MTL 7:30
POR @ NE 7:30
NYC @ CLB 8:00
HOU @ DAL 8:00

Sunday 9/2:
ATL @ DCU 7:30

Lots of CCL matches with NJ, DAL, & POR playing a double. For the first time all season NJ could pass us this week with 4 points in 2 matches and a loss by NYC at Austin Columbus. We NEED to win at Columbus for so many reasons, but a loss for them would drop their max points to 115, coupled with an Atlanta win getting them to 112, they could be 1 match away from CCL elimination by the Sunday night. Let's hope NJ's tight schedule starts to wear them down some, or many Lawerence is finally suspended for that punch in the Derby. I've given up hope that Atlanta will ever lose again, but a match at DCU would make sense as the place to drop points.

Speaking of Atlanta, I think we should realize that NYC has not slumped into 2nd place, but rather Atlanta has gone on an insane streak, never seen before in MLS history. See the chart below. When I started tracking this in late May, Atlanta was only on pace to reach 118.3 points and averaging 1.74 ppg. Compare that to now. Over the last 14 matches they've upped that average to 1.82 ppg and now project at 123.5. NJ did the same moving their average from 1.60 - 1.70 and their projected points from 108.8 - 115.6. NYC moved from 1.74-.175 and 118.3 - 119. They've actually improved! There was no NYC slump, just both Atlanta & NJ winning at a record setting pace, which makes it appear as a slump in comparison.


View attachment 9101

Updated:

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU 0 @ NJ 1
DAL 3 @ SJ 4
TOR 0 @ POR 2

Saturday 9/1:
NJ @ MTL 7:30
POR @ NE 7:30
NYC @ CLB 8:00
HOU @ DAL 8:00

Sunday 9/2:
ATL @ DCU 7:30



This makes me sad. For the first time all season we're now in 3rd place on the CCL table based on both tie breakers; wins & GD. We do still project to have more points than NJ with our match in hand. But all our hypotheticals about 2nd place qualifying for CCL doesn't mean shit if NJ is the one in 2nd place by the end of the regular season. We need a result Saturday in Columbus. And lets go Habs!!!!

 

[Fabio]

Updated:

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU 0 @ NJ 1
DAL 3 @ SJ 4
TOR 0 @ POR 2

Saturday 9/1:
NJ @ MTL 7:30
POR @ NE 7:30
NYC @ CLB 8:00
HOU @ DAL 8:00

Sunday 9/2:
ATL @ DCU 7:30

View attachment 9108

This makes me sad. For the first time all season we're now in 3rd place on the CCL table based on both tie breakers; wins & GD. We do still project to have more points than NJ with our match in hand. But all our hypotheticals about 2nd place qualifying for CCL doesn't mean shit if NJ is the one in 2nd place by the end of the regular season. We need a result Saturday in Columbus. And lets go Habs!!!!

In the last 2 years this spot in CCL seems true curse for the NYCFC........

 

[mgarbowski]

Seattle is now tied with Portland in the CCL race. Neither is going to win, but it’s amazing how they caught up.

 

[adam]

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU 0 @ NJ 1
DAL 3 @ SJ 4
TOR 0 @ POR 2

Saturday 9/1:
NJ 0 @ MTL 3
POR 1 @ NE 1
NYC 1 @ CLB 2
HOU 4 @ DAL 2

Sunday 9/2:
ATL 1 @ DCU 3



We had a change to get within a point of Atlanta and retake our lead on NJ, but with a 1-0 lead in Columbus, we had 4 minutes of bed shitting and here we are. mgarbowski says that Seattle could now be at the bottom of the table. But we know the bottom 3 are there right now just to wait for elimination.

WEDNESDAY 9/5
NE @ NYC 7:00

SATURDAY 9/8
DCU @ NYC 4:55
COL @ POR 10:30

Only 3 relevant CCL matches this week, and 2 involve us. Why so few? It's an international date. So our best change to get 6 points in 2 matches at home and we're missing half our team. Thanks Yanks! I really hate our stadium situation sometimes... But who the hell knows with our home form? Of note; this is the week Portland finally loses all it's games in hand. It will be even with Dallas & Columbus and can only tie Columbus in points with a win. Like we've all been saying, all those matches in hand mean nothing if they don't win every single one.

If anyone would like to drink with me before the match on Wednesday that could dash all our CCL hopes, please feel free to hit me up. Because this thread could start to get real dark by Saturday.

 

[Shwafta]

Wednesday 8/29:
HOU 0 @ NJ 1
DAL 3 @ SJ 4
TOR 0 @ POR 2

Saturday 9/1:
NJ 0 @ MTL 3
POR 1 @ NE 1
NYC 1 @ CLB 2
HOU 4 @ DAL 2

Sunday 9/2:
ATL 1 @ DCU 3

View attachment 9121

We had a change to get within a point of Atlanta and retake our lead on NJ, but with a 1-0 lead in Columbus, we had 4 minutes of bed shitting and here we are. mgarbowski says that Seattle could now be at the bottom of the table. But we know the bottom 3 are there right now just to wait for elimination.

WEDNESDAY 9/5
NE @ NYC 7:00

SATURDAY 9/8
DCU @ NYC 4:55
COL @ POR 10:30

Only 3 relevant CCL matches this week, and 2 involve us. Why so few? It's an international date. So our best change to get 6 points in 2 matches at home and we're missing half our team. Thanks Yanks! I really hate our stadium situation sometimes... But who the hell knows with our home form? Of note; this is the week Portland finally loses all it's games in hand. It will be even with Dallas & Columbus and can only tie Columbus in points with a win. Like we've all been saying, all those matches in hand mean nothing if they don't win every single one.

If anyone would like to drink with me before the match on Wednesday that could dash all our CCL hopes, please feel free to hit me up. Because this thread could start to get real dark by Saturday.

Not sure when my friend and I are getting to the stadium, but if we're there early enough that I can drink and still drive home, I'm down.
Even though it's only NE, I'm still nervous.

 

[Shwafta]

Not sure when my friend and I are getting to the stadium, but if we're there early enough that I can drink and still drive home, I'm down.
Even though it's only NE, I'm still nervous.

*sigh*
Well, we're tied with RB on points and games now. If we don't beat DC it's all-but over for us even attempting getting 2nd.