If you can;t agree on a system that ranks teams like chicago differently from LA then how can we discuss strength of schedule? Dont like easy/hard, change it for your own terms. But unless you think we are suddenly the best team in the league, sorting out where we fit in the ranking of other teams is the point of this discussion.
Season Predictions
- Thread starter dannd23
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Discussing strength of schedule before any games are played is the same as having a preseason Top 25 ranking in college football or basketball - it's pure mental masturbation in it's finest form and never, ever is even close to being accurate.
The point of the thread was guessing how many points the team would collect this year, which is really just playing the lottery and trying to get lucky. Further breaking it down with conjecture masquerading as science is faulty to the core, especially when it's based on last years teams and rosters, and yet every team save one or two has had substantial turnover per the MLS transactions page. It's like the pre-match predictions: Guessing the result of a particular match is closest to what the thread is about - adding in to the equation which players will score is the same as what you're discussing.
Until we drop any points, I'm happy thinking we're the best team in the league and not only can, but should beat every team on the schedule. Once we start dropping points and the table changes, then I'll rely on that for the pecking order.
To your point about LA/Chicago..... every pundit wanted to anoint LA the MLS champion after they thrashed us in LA, and yet they were a complete flame-out at the end of the season (5th in the West) only garnering 5 of 21 points in their last 7 games and losing to Seattle in the playoffs. LA may look good now, but it's a long season and a lot (of bad) can happen to them just as a lot (of good) could happen to Chicago.
The flip side of this is a large contingent here takes opposing team weakness as a given and never adjusts to reality.
Last year's preseason conventional wisdom was to look for 4 East teams we should beat and make the playoffs. It started with Chicago, Toronto and Philadelphia because they're always bad.
Then add Orlando because they were expansion like us and we'd beat them because NY is better than Orlando, QED. Then you look for a cushion and well, Montreal finished last in 2014 and the Red Bulls were in chaos and we would probably finish no lower than 4th and maybe higher, because no reason we can't beat the Crew or Revs, right?
Fair enough for pre-season, but one-third of the way into the season it was apparent that this was delusional, yet almost nobody let go.
Toronto is way ahead of us and added the league's best player? They never made the playoffs ever.
Montreal is ahead of us with 5 games in hand? They'll get tired and lose them all.
It's obvious that we're no better than a coin toss better or worse than Orlando? NY still better than Orlando, duh.
Red Bulls running away with the conference? Energy drink.
This is not an exaggeration of how conversations went on this forum.
Look, I like optimism. I want optimism. But we were close to dead by June and few people would even admit we had a tough road ahead.
This year, i think we can make the playoff, but it's not a given. I certainly hope we make the playoffs. And major upward swings happen, eg Red Bulls and Impact last year.
It could happen. We could get mid-50 level points. But expecting it is a big ask.
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This! It's a real thing. I've often thought we should have a standard etiquette to express this. So from now on ...
#mobilepost
You actually proved my point without realizing it. The delusion is currently occurring by people handicapping each game on the schedule as Easy/Hard - there is zero empirical data to come to these conclusions right now, and yet they don't want to let go of last season's data. All we know, and let me repeat that - ALL we know, is that our team has improved because:
1. we have addressed our obvious shortcomings last year by replacing the stubborn, shortsighted, and divisive coach with one that seems to have gelled the team while instituting a style of play that fits their abilities
2. we have replaced dead weight players with both higher quality, technical ability, and youth
-and-
3. we have specifically addressed our most glaring area on the field - Defense (see #2)
Being a better team may or may not translate to more wins and more points, but it surely won't hurt our situation - it all depends on how our off-season chess moves match up to the other teams' actions - so this is really a moving target to gauge and a bit of a fools errand to quantify. I currently think our moves have been as good as they possibly could have been and am very optimistic about the season, but once the first game(s) has been played and the results known, I will temper my optimism based on what I see.
I won't touch on your other points as that's tangentially altering the purpose of the thread, but there is no reason not to be optimistic as it's preseason and everybody should be incredibly excited. We may shit the bed like Chelsea did under Mourinho, or we may struggle with success like the up/down Manchester teams, or we may be ecstatically surprised like the fans of Leicester..... the same people that were saying Chelsea was going to be a hard game and Leicester was going to be an easy game are currently vomiting on their crow. Nobody knew based on last season.
I think the bolded section is the heart of your post and completely agree. We all believe NYCFC got better and we're most likely right about that. The issue is not just whether we got better but how we improved compared to others in the league. What I'm seeing is people assessing our improvement and then jumping to a major point improvement. Which means they are either (1) assuming other teams are relatively unimproved, or (2) made that assessment and just haven't said so. I guess my main point is (1) is a mistake and nobody has made an explicit cogent case for (2), so until I see that case made, I'm a skeptic. A hopeful skeptic to be sure, but a skeptic nonetheless.
Personally, I confess I lack the info to make more than a completely superficial assessment of how the other 9 teams in the East have done this postseason.
I think you remember we spent a lot of energy trying to predict that last year, and generally came up woefully short. I think it makes sense to assume it will be within 3 points of the 49 it was last year until enough data comes in to expect it to be different.
My predictions are:
Top 5 GF in the league (We were 6th last year)
14-16 in GA (We were in a three-way tie for the bottom last year)
Squeak into 6th playoff spot in the East.
Top 5 GF in the league (We were 6th last year)
14-16 in GA (We were in a three-way tie for the bottom last year)
Squeak into 6th playoff spot in the East.
Here's my final season prediction, that when the season comes to an end I'll be able to use the following gif:
I'll be happy doing what I was hoping we would do last season - secure the last playoff spot and then probably get bounced in the first round. I think anyone would agree that we must make the playoffs this year. Anything on top of that is a bonus.
I think the goals we have this season break down like this:
MUST Accomplish:
1. Secure a playoff spot
2. win at least one game in the USOC
3. not have the worst GA in the league
Should Accomplish
1. Win 2-3 games in USOC
2. Have a positive Goal differential
3. Win a playoff game in MLS cup
Probably won't but would be awesome if we did accomplish
1. Get a CCL spot for next year
2. Win USOC
3. Win conference finals in MLS cup
4. Win MLS cup
MUST Accomplish:
1. Secure a playoff spot
2. win at least one game in the USOC
3. not have the worst GA in the league
Should Accomplish
1. Win 2-3 games in USOC
2. Have a positive Goal differential
3. Win a playoff game in MLS cup
Probably won't but would be awesome if we did accomplish
1. Get a CCL spot for next year
2. Win USOC
3. Win conference finals in MLS cup
4. Win MLS cup
I say must because if we don't accomplish those goals the season will be a failure in my eyes.
Same. The first season jitters are out of the way, so to speak. I think we are established enough and have the necessary talent to be moderately competitive.
Maybe I'm being really bullish but I think we got a lot better in the offseason, and added a lot more depth, and it seems like a large chunk of the league (especially in the east) got worse. Red Bulls, DC, New England I think will all be worse, I think Montreal got better but at the same time I doubt Drogba can dominate as much over a full season like he did at the end. I think we'll get right around 50 and be in third place.
If I had to guess I'd say:
If I had to guess I'd say:
- TFC
- Columbus
- NYC
- Red Bulls
- Montreal
- Orlando
Haha wow I am an idiot. I still think our defense will be better this year but it won't be by a huge margin from last year.
Just to have something to smile :} and crow about" I told you so : Cry or half smirk :{ at the end of the season. Posting on this thread to see how far our predictions and expectations will take us at the end of season.
I feel on my bones that our team will do very good . I voted for 60 points
we have 3 out of 60 today : we got 57 to go
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