Away - 08/25 Jersey

[LionNYC]

Early reasons why I think we'll lose this match...

- Red Bulls played in Portland on Friday and rested most of their guys (BWP, Klestjan only played 20 minutes, and their lineup looked USL level). The only question is Collin's injury and how that stands because we know their backline is terrible. Royer is also week to week and him out is better for us. I don't think he plays because that leg injury was bad. We played on Sunday with our top guys. The match is on Friday, so they have the advantage with rest.
- It's Heineken Rivalry Week so there will be media and press engagements that players and coaches have to attend. Vieira noted that this was an issue during a previous derby as NYCFC was coming off travel and a short week until the game.
- Yangel Herrera's suspension is huge. Outside of Villa, I think he's the most impact player on the game. He's contribution to PPG is huge, it's over 2 when he started and under 1.5 when he does not. We will see if Felipe is suspended for embellishment (unlikely) or Klestjan (more than unlikely) for violent conduct.

I won't be going into the game with cautiously optimistic. I'll be going expecting 0 points, happy with 1, amazed with 3. Winning 3 games against any team in this league is difficult, two away from home just increases the difficulty.

It's going to be interesting to see how Vieira handles rest/training/media obligations and the lineup.

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

I'm not one side or the other but Okoli does offer some utility. He takes up space and makes the defense focus one less guy on Villa. He is also very good at set piece defense.

Whether that is worth pulling another midfielder against the red bulls is debatable when they are going to play 6 in the midfield.

Seems like another guy, like michael, that the good players have to try to avoid passing to

 

[canchon]

NYCFC doesn't need to win this game...a tie would be a perfectly good result. Keeps distance between the teams the same. I don't think there has been a tie yet in the HRD, has there?

 

[NickFromAstoria]

NYCFC doesn't need to win this game...a tie would be a perfectly good result. Keeps distance between the teams the same. I don't think there has been a tie yet in the HRD, has there?

Nope - it's been all or nothing thus far. (3-6 counting the Open Cup loss IIRC)

 

[Ulrich]

Early reasons why I think we'll lose this match...

- Red Bulls played in Portland on Friday and rested most of their guys (BWP, Klestjan only played 20 minutes, and their lineup looked USL level). The only question is Collin's injury and how that stands because we know their backline is terrible. Royer is also week to week and him out is better for us. I don't think he plays because that leg injury was bad. We played on Sunday with our top guys. The match is on Friday, so they have the advantage with rest.
- It's Heineken Rivalry Week so there will be media and press engagements that players and coaches have to attend. Vieira noted that this was an issue during a previous derby as NYCFC was coming off travel and a short week until the game.
- Yangel Herrera's suspension is huge. Outside of Villa, I think he's the most impact player on the game. He's contribution to PPG is huge, it's over 2 when he started and under 1.5 when he does not. We will see if Felipe is suspended for embellishment (unlikely) or Klestjan (more than unlikely) for violent conduct.

I won't be going into the game with cautiously optimistic. I'll be going expecting 0 points, happy with 1, amazed with 3. Winning 3 games against any team in this league is difficult, two away from home just increases the difficulty.

It's going to be interesting to see how Vieira handles rest/training/media obligations and the lineup.

Fck it. We're still winning this game. The pressure is all on RB to save some form of face after being humiliated down 0-2 this season in matches, and I don't think RB handles pressure well. They are great at thriving off of other team's chaos but don't handle it well themselves.

We're gonna get two players back fully rested and both are important cogs to stopping SK and SWP. We're also gonna have Villa going into the match with his mojo back after killing hen the last time and continuing his goal streak.

So I'll be pissed if we don't get at least a single point, and I think we can take it to them with four forwards which has worked well the last few matches - just bypass their logjam of a midfield and make their crappy defenders play on their heels.

 

[LionNYC]

NYCFCfan Do you have the team's schedule for this week (including media events?)

Per the Instagram accounts, all players are in the training site for treatment, massage, etc.

 

[NYCFCfan]

NYCFCfan Do you have the team's schedule for this week (including media events?)

Per the Instagram accounts, all players are in the training site for treatment, massage, etc.

Not yet but usually Monday's are off days following a game. Why do you ask?

 

[LionNYC]

Not yet but usually Monday's are off days following a game. Why do you ask?

Condensed timeline until game time. Interesting to see how they balance everything.

 

[SanBartG]

Early reasons why I think we'll lose this match...

- Red Bulls played in Portland on Friday and rested most of their guys (BWP, Klestjan only played 20 minutes, and their lineup looked USL level). The only question is Collin's injury and how that stands because we know their backline is terrible. Royer is also week to week and him out is better for us. I don't think he plays because that leg injury was bad. We played on Sunday with our top guys. The match is on Friday, so they have the advantage with rest.
- It's Heineken Rivalry Week so there will be media and press engagements that players and coaches have to attend. Vieira noted that this was an issue during a previous derby as NYCFC was coming off travel and a short week until the game.
- Yangel Herrera's suspension is huge. Outside of Villa, I think he's the most impact player on the game. He's contribution to PPG is huge, it's over 2 when he started and under 1.5 when he does not. We will see if Felipe is suspended for embellishment (unlikely) or Klestjan (more than unlikely) for violent conduct.

I won't be going into the game with cautiously optimistic. I'll be going expecting 0 points, happy with 1, amazed with 3. Winning 3 games against any team in this league is difficult, two away from home just increases the difficulty.

It's going to be interesting to see how Vieira handles rest/training/media obligations and the lineup.

A solid analysis but it doesn't fully account for one fact- this is rapidly becoming a blood feud and in such games all bets are off. We have the psychological edge, not to mention we are the better team, even without Herrera.

I think it's a draw with 20% chance we win.

 

[LionNYC]

A solid analysis but it doesn't fully account for one fact- this is rapidly becoming a blood feud and in such games all bets are off. We have the psychological edge, not to mention we are the better team, even without Herrera.

I think it's a draw with 20% chance we win.

FiveThirtyEight puts an NYCFC win at 26%, RB win at 50%, and draw at 24%.

 

[NYCFCfan]

FiveThirtyEight puts an NYCFC win at 26%, RB win at 50%, and draw at 24%.

538 is overrated crap. If NYCFC wins and TFC loses then those numbers go crazy. If your statistics can be thrown off that much by one event then it's crap.

 

[SanBartG]

FiveThirtyEight puts an NYCFC win at 26%, RB win at 50%, and draw at 24%.

Nate Silver's predictive modeling is as imperfect as anyone's. And like I said, in grudge matches, all bets are off.

 

[NYCFCfan]

Condensed timeline until game time. Interesting to see how they balance everything.

Off today, training Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Off again Sat & Sunday

 

[EganSoccerWords]

Just an fyi, there are reasonable tickets still available. Just picked up 5 tickets in Row 1 of 219 (section next to the away support) for $23 each ($17+$5 ticketmaster fee).

 

[LionNYC]

If anyone wants to sit next to me, there are three tickets left on StubHub in the Manager's Box behind the NYCFC bench. It's currently priced at ~$618 including fees but you get free alcohol, liquor, food, etc. The price may continue to go down. I bought at this price, it was at $~908 with fees last week.

Downside, you have to sit next to Dick and Douche Moss.

 

[canchon]

RBNJ fans think there is a possibility that Klejstan gets suspended by the DisCo for a play in the Portland game. Didn't see the incident but that would level the playing field. Without Sasha it's basically eliminate crosses in from the flanks and RBNJ has nothing.

 

[LionNYC]

RBNJ fans think there is a possibility that Klejstan gets suspended by the DisCo for a play in the Portland game. Didn't see the incident but that would level the playing field. Without Sasha it's basically eliminate crosses in from the flanks and RBNJ has nothing.

The incident in question: https://streamable.com/8tnw9

There are MLS matches on Wednesday, so hopefully the DisCo report comes out tomorrow.

 

[Ulrich]

The incident in question: https://streamable.com/8tnw9

There are MLS matches on Wednesday, so hopefully the DisCo report comes out tomorrow.

That's a red every day of the week - intent to injure. VAR is a joke if they didn't review that. Or if they did and the ref waved it off.....

 

[SanBartG]

That's a red every day of the week - intent to injure. VAR is a joke if they didn't review that. Or if they did and the ref waved it off.....

If that's not a red I'm going to start believing the conspiracy theory that the refs have it in for us. Up to now, I've thought they were mostly incompetent or really really insecure.

 

[The Toe]

Got a group of 7 going for our first away day. One a Jerz fan, but I think it's his first trip, too.