Impact lost today. This changes things a bit.mgarbowski run the numbers.
If they lose 4 straight games, it makes things A LOT more interesting. Until then, we're chasing a long shot.
By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do
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If they lose 4 straight games, it makes things A LOT more interesting. Until then, we're chasing a long shot.
SBI mentioned in a tweet that "games in hand" usually don't turn out the way you'd expect them to, especially late in the season. More games, less rest, and teams averaging fewer points per game in those "games in hand". Something to look for. Meanwhile, we have a good amount of time between games towards the end of the season (now), so I wouldn't be surprised to finish strongly.
They are no more out of reach than Columbus at this point. NE appears our best path strictly by the numbers. Of course, that ignores the return of JJJ.
Once again I'll point out: in before the start of our 7 game win streak to end the season.
I'm holding my update until after our game this afternoon, but wanted to jump in to say that Columbus is considerably more out of reach than Montreal. Let's say we lose today just to emphasize the differences. That would leave us 10 points behind Columbus, with the same number of games played, with 8 games to go. OTOH we'd be even on points with Montreal who would have 4 games in hand. For Montreal to be as far out of reach as Columbus, Montreal would have to get 10 of 12 points on their extra 4 games. Columbus is definitely in a better position than Montreal. If we win today the relative positions of Columbus and Montreal do not change, but we are 3 points closer to both.
True. I was assuming a certain run of play. If we win today and win against Columbus next week (both parts of our destiny we theoretically control) we are 4 back of Columbus. Compare that with even vs. Montreal but with them having 3 games in hand and I figure the difference is pretty similar. Of course, those two wins are big assumptions.
I had hoped to get the weekly update online within 30 minutes of the game ending but I'm probably heading out to dinner exactly as the game ends so it might not get up until mid-evening.
I have actually written 3 variants ahead of time. and I'll get the right one (I hope) posted ASAP. I'm announcing this mostly to note that this exercise really emphasized to me how much difference there is between a win and a loss at this point with 8 games left after today.
I have actually written 3 variants ahead of time. and I'll get the right one (I hope) posted ASAP. I'm announcing this mostly to note that this exercise really emphasized to me how much difference there is between a win and a loss at this point with 8 games left after today.
Oddly, as we get closer to the end of the season I put less faith in my simple little formula. It might seem intuitive that as fewer variables (i.e., unplayed games) remain, and as more information becomes solid (played games) the prediction should be more certain. But I think it is the opposite. With 10 or more games remaining you can expect that an odd result one week will be balanced out in the remaining games. Also, a winning or losing streak by one team ahead of us tends to get offset by opposite results from one of the other teams we are chasing.
But as we get closer to the end there are fewer and fewer chances for those odd results to get balanced. Not only does each team have fewer games but we are chasing fewer teams. This means if one of the remaining catchable teams goes on a hot or cold streak it won’t be offset by what the other teams do.
Columbus is 10 points ahead and probably out of reach. Anyone who said a tie was a good result is deluded. Toronto is 6 ahead with 2 extra games remaining and 7 of 10 at home. Either needs to collapse for us to have a chance. New England is 6 ahead with one extra game remaining. Let’s say they are — barely — within reach. And then there is Montreal, tantalizingly close but with all those games in hand.
Think about a 3 game winning or losing streak. That’s not much. With a balanced league and ties it’s less common than some other sports but it really is not extreme. Three games. Now imagine that a team we are currently chasing — Montreal — wins or loses its last three games. That is an 9-point swing in where they finish. You cannot account for that with projections.
When you get close enough to the end, then, you stop going by PPG and start saying things like “We need Montreal to get no more than __ points in their remaining games while we get __.” The problem is that we aren’t that close to there yet and with Montreal’s 4 games in hand it is hard to even begin that process.
Meanwhile, as The Toe noted above, those Games-In-Hand never seem to go as you expect. Who predicted Montreal on 10 games rest would go scoreless at home against Philadelphia?
Because Montreal lost the projected PPG to tie for 6th is at 43 this week, down from 45 the week before. Maybe 44 is a reasonable compromise, but keep in mind what I just wrote in the preceding paragraphs.
Despite Montreal’s loss, this was not a good week. We played twice and gained 1 point on them while they gained another game in hand.
And, did somebody mention Philadelphia? My Inner Eeyore says “Philadelphia is only one point behind us, and has a remaining schedule that is not easy, but maybe a bit easier than ours.”
Philly Home: New England, Columbus, Houston, Orlando
Philly Away: San Jose, New England, Toronto, Red Bulls
For us, all of the following are Win-Lose-Draw
5-1-2 45 points
5-2-1 44 points
4-1-3 43 points
5-3-0 43 points
4-2-2 42 points
4-3-1 41 points
Our Schedule:
Home: Columbus, Toronto, San Jose, New England
Away: Dallas, Vancouver, DC, Orlando
The remaining schedules of our two closest targets:
Montreal:
Home:Chicago, New England, Chicago, DC, Toronto
Away: Toronto, Galaxy, San Jose, Orlando, NYRB, Colorado, New England
New England
Home:Orlando, NYRB, Philadelphia, Montreal
Away: Philadelphia, Toronto, Montreal, Chicago, NYCFC
More happy thoughts:
In the 18 games before our transfers played, including the 11-game winless streak, we averaged 1.11 PPG. In the 8 games since our transfers showed up we are at 1 PPG. We’ve gotten worse since our transfers showed up. Call it a low sample, but it’s at least inarguable that we are no better.
But as we get closer to the end there are fewer and fewer chances for those odd results to get balanced. Not only does each team have fewer games but we are chasing fewer teams. This means if one of the remaining catchable teams goes on a hot or cold streak it won’t be offset by what the other teams do.
Columbus is 10 points ahead and probably out of reach. Anyone who said a tie was a good result is deluded. Toronto is 6 ahead with 2 extra games remaining and 7 of 10 at home. Either needs to collapse for us to have a chance. New England is 6 ahead with one extra game remaining. Let’s say they are — barely — within reach. And then there is Montreal, tantalizingly close but with all those games in hand.
Think about a 3 game winning or losing streak. That’s not much. With a balanced league and ties it’s less common than some other sports but it really is not extreme. Three games. Now imagine that a team we are currently chasing — Montreal — wins or loses its last three games. That is an 9-point swing in where they finish. You cannot account for that with projections.
When you get close enough to the end, then, you stop going by PPG and start saying things like “We need Montreal to get no more than __ points in their remaining games while we get __.” The problem is that we aren’t that close to there yet and with Montreal’s 4 games in hand it is hard to even begin that process.
Meanwhile, as The Toe noted above, those Games-In-Hand never seem to go as you expect. Who predicted Montreal on 10 games rest would go scoreless at home against Philadelphia?
Because Montreal lost the projected PPG to tie for 6th is at 43 this week, down from 45 the week before. Maybe 44 is a reasonable compromise, but keep in mind what I just wrote in the preceding paragraphs.
Despite Montreal’s loss, this was not a good week. We played twice and gained 1 point on them while they gained another game in hand.
And, did somebody mention Philadelphia? My Inner Eeyore says “Philadelphia is only one point behind us, and has a remaining schedule that is not easy, but maybe a bit easier than ours.”
Philly Home: New England, Columbus, Houston, Orlando
Philly Away: San Jose, New England, Toronto, Red Bulls
For us, all of the following are Win-Lose-Draw
5-1-2 45 points
5-2-1 44 points
4-1-3 43 points
5-3-0 43 points
4-2-2 42 points
4-3-1 41 points
Our Schedule:
Home: Columbus, Toronto, San Jose, New England
Away: Dallas, Vancouver, DC, Orlando
The remaining schedules of our two closest targets:
Montreal:
Home:Chicago, New England, Chicago, DC, Toronto
Away: Toronto, Galaxy, San Jose, Orlando, NYRB, Colorado, New England
New England
Home:Orlando, NYRB, Philadelphia, Montreal
Away: Philadelphia, Toronto, Montreal, Chicago, NYCFC
More happy thoughts:
In the 18 games before our transfers played, including the 11-game winless streak, we averaged 1.11 PPG. In the 8 games since our transfers showed up we are at 1 PPG. We’ve gotten worse since our transfers showed up. Call it a low sample, but it’s at least inarguable that we are no better.
Run the numbers, but the team is screwed. Lose to Columbus next week and they are playing out the string. Win and at least we can keep running numbers and keeping the hope alive.
Don't worry. They're the Fire. Like the Union, they'll fuck themselves into oblivion.
I long ago stopped being impressed or swayed by assurances that our rivals suck and we'll overcome them easily. I'm kind of amazed anyone still thinks it is justified at this point in the season. Chicago is undefeated against us. We are winless against them. And we have not turned for the better.
I don't think I'm alone in worrying that Chicago and Philadelphia's ability to fuck themselves into oblivion is closely rivaled by Kreis's ability to Grabavoy us into oblivion
Chicago's Schedule:
Home: Orlando, New England, Red Bulls
Away: Orlando, Montreal, Red Bulls, Montreal, Toronto, DC United
Pretty tough, with Red Bulls twice and DC, plus 6 Away games compared to only 3 at home.
On the other hand, their games against Montreal create a dilemma for us. If Montreal beats them we have a hard time catching Montreal, but if the Fire help us and beats the Impact then they start maybe crawling over us. Plus they play Orlando twice in less than a month and Orlando is in a death spiral at the moment.
Home: Orlando, New England, Red Bulls
Away: Orlando, Montreal, Red Bulls, Montreal, Toronto, DC United
Pretty tough, with Red Bulls twice and DC, plus 6 Away games compared to only 3 at home.
On the other hand, their games against Montreal create a dilemma for us. If Montreal beats them we have a hard time catching Montreal, but if the Fire help us and beats the Impact then they start maybe crawling over us. Plus they play Orlando twice in less than a month and Orlando is in a death spiral at the moment.
Strong 1st post.
Good thing we don't play Chicago anymore......(not sure how to make everyone understand this is pure sarcasm)
That goes up there with probably the top 1st posts in the history of internet forums in my book.
Again, I don't get the superior attitude against Chicago. In addition to never losing to us, they just a beat a team that made us look like middle-schoolers 3 times. We can finish ahead of them, but right now we are in exactly the same class as them.
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