Well I think we can all hope that Toronto pulls a Toronto and misses the play offs for the 9th year in a row and continues their streak of never making the playoffs...........which would be nice
By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do
- Thread starter mgarbowski
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This is a big ask and a hot take, but I think if we beat Toronto, we'll make the playoffs. Call it a hunch.
We need to win tonight for that to make a difference, though.
I get what you're saying here. But ultimately, all of our games against Western Conference teams are the least important games remaining on our schedule. I know, I know, in the position we are in, every single game is important. But if we were to lose any of our remaining games, LA wouldn't hurt us as bad. Same as Vancouver/Dallas/San Jose.
One of the reasons I'm counting three of the four Western Conference games as losses is because they are road games. (San Jose is at YS.) So, in addition to the teams being strong, City is flying cross-country and I'm fairly certain this is the first time the Europeans are flying across three time zones.
It'll be interesting to see how City handles travel for those matches.
It'll be interesting to see how City handles travel for those matches.
Going into last night we had 4 home games and 6 road games remaining. We most likely cannot get in just winning all 4 home games. And it's not as if going 4-0-0 at home will be easy. Columbus's PPG before last night was 1.42. Only Orlando has a lower PPG among our remaining away opponents at 1.12.
Of the 6 Away games, last night was the second easiest in terms of opponent's record. And we tied. We needed to win it to give us a hint of some breathing room, and maybe let us go 3-0-1 at home. Now we probably need to beat at least one of the following on the road with their PPG:
Let this sink in. In terms of PPG to date, our Sunday game against the Galaxy is only tied for the third hardest road game remaining. I realize they are improved, and on a roll, but that is their record. And more than 75% into the season, you are your record. We have no gimmes left. We have no obvious "get" to steal a game. Based on our last match with them, the game against DC might seem the best opportunity, but they have a 16 goal swing in their Home Goal Differential against their Road Goal Differential. We will likely be playing a different DC United in DC.
A tie last night was not acceptable. It can be overcome, but the road keeps getting harder and harder.
Of the 6 Away games, last night was the second easiest in terms of opponent's record. And we tied. We needed to win it to give us a hint of some breathing room, and maybe let us go 3-0-1 at home. Now we probably need to beat at least one of the following on the road with their PPG:
- DC United 1.69
- Vancouver 1.68
- LA Galaxy 1.65
- FC Dallas 1.65
Let this sink in. In terms of PPG to date, our Sunday game against the Galaxy is only tied for the third hardest road game remaining. I realize they are improved, and on a roll, but that is their record. And more than 75% into the season, you are your record. We have no gimmes left. We have no obvious "get" to steal a game. Based on our last match with them, the game against DC might seem the best opportunity, but they have a 16 goal swing in their Home Goal Differential against their Road Goal Differential. We will likely be playing a different DC United in DC.
A tie last night was not acceptable. It can be overcome, but the road keeps getting harder and harder.
Here's a great post summarizing the situation from Knave on bigsoccer.
Barring something crazy, the playoff field for the EC is basically decided.
With today's draw, NYC is toast. Lightly toasted only, to be sure. But toast nonetheless.
To overtake the current 6th place team given the 6th place team's current pace, NYC will need to maintain at least a 2.00 PPG average for the rest of the season. For them, that's 9 games. They can drop no more than 9 points over those 9 games. And even then, they might not make the playoffs, assuming the 1-6 teams don't suffer any extraordinary collapses. (All this is true for ORL as well. They are in the exact same position as NYC.)
The 1-6 EC teams are unlikely to collapse. Or at least they're unlikely to collapse to the degree that NYC (or ORL) needs. Even MTL in 6th only needs to maintain its current, and quite modest 1.33 PPG pace to make things pretty much impossible for NYC. The other teams need even less.
Of course, if you look at PTS, NYC, ORL and MTL are all even on 28. MTL is ahead of ORL and NYC (and NYC and ORL are toast) only because MTL has so many games in hand. MTL still has 13 games. Sure, they could drop all those games.
And, of course, TFC could revert to their norm and go into a free fall. Does anyone really believe in NER and CLB? Do I even need to ask that question of DCU? There's only one team ahead of NYC and ORL that most folks will agree are the real deal, and even then you've gotta factor in all that old MetroStink baggage.
Then there's the whole MLS thing. Weird shit happens in this league, just like it did tonight when SJE waltzed into SporkTown and beat SKC 5-0. What the hell was that?
It should be the league's motto: Major League Soccer: Shit Happens.
But is enough shit gonna happen to allow NYC (and ORL for that matter) into the playoffs? I'm just saying that would require a whole lot of shit. That probably won't happen.
Probably.
Barring something crazy, the playoff field for the EC is basically decided.
With today's draw, NYC is toast. Lightly toasted only, to be sure. But toast nonetheless.
To overtake the current 6th place team given the 6th place team's current pace, NYC will need to maintain at least a 2.00 PPG average for the rest of the season. For them, that's 9 games. They can drop no more than 9 points over those 9 games. And even then, they might not make the playoffs, assuming the 1-6 teams don't suffer any extraordinary collapses. (All this is true for ORL as well. They are in the exact same position as NYC.)
The 1-6 EC teams are unlikely to collapse. Or at least they're unlikely to collapse to the degree that NYC (or ORL) needs. Even MTL in 6th only needs to maintain its current, and quite modest 1.33 PPG pace to make things pretty much impossible for NYC. The other teams need even less.
Of course, if you look at PTS, NYC, ORL and MTL are all even on 28. MTL is ahead of ORL and NYC (and NYC and ORL are toast) only because MTL has so many games in hand. MTL still has 13 games. Sure, they could drop all those games.
And, of course, TFC could revert to their norm and go into a free fall. Does anyone really believe in NER and CLB? Do I even need to ask that question of DCU? There's only one team ahead of NYC and ORL that most folks will agree are the real deal, and even then you've gotta factor in all that old MetroStink baggage.
Then there's the whole MLS thing. Weird shit happens in this league, just like it did tonight when SJE waltzed into SporkTown and beat SKC 5-0. What the hell was that?
It should be the league's motto: Major League Soccer: Shit Happens.
But is enough shit gonna happen to allow NYC (and ORL for that matter) into the playoffs? I'm just saying that would require a whole lot of shit. That probably won't happen.
Probably.
I'm just praying that we do enough to at least be able to continue to say "shit can happen" or even the ol' "so you're telling me theres' a chance" so we don't have to watch a bunch of meaningless friendlies, play the role of spoiler, and/or use remaining games to evaluate players for next season.
Exactly, its not looking good right now, but lets keep it close enough to give me false hope and to raise my blood pressure.
But in all seriousness, I really do hope we at least stay in contention until at least the second to last game. As you pointed out, nobody wants to see friendlies.
At this point, I don't give a fuck about the numbers. They are too damning.
I'm going to look at it from an optimistic view and say that we tend to play better against good teams, except NJ, and we will earn more points than expected against our toughest opponents. We still make the playoffs and will be in great shape after upcoming 3 game win streak!
Other than that, we are done.
I'm going to look at it from an optimistic view and say that we tend to play better against good teams, except NJ, and we will earn more points than expected against our toughest opponents. We still make the playoffs and will be in great shape after upcoming 3 game win streak!
Other than that, we are done.
Love stats. Keep these posts coming.
We are at the point where we have to hope Columbus/NE/Mtl/Tor lose games unexpectedly in addition to our success in order to make the playoffs. Root for Orlando San Jose SKC and Philly this weekend (and no, I am not worried about outperforming Orlando the rest of the season even if they get 3 points against Toronto).
LAG with Dos Santos and Gerrard are the best team in MLS right now. I would be thrilled with a point in StubHub.
LAG with Dos Santos and Gerrard are the best team in MLS right now. I would be thrilled with a point in StubHub.
And people here are doing math and penciling in 12 points for the remaining home games.
NYCFC has played 13 home games so far...and only achieved 16 points. Dead last in the Eastern Conference in terms of home form. (Orlando and Toronto also only have 16 points - throw out Toronto b/c they have played only 9 home games). That is why they will miss the playoffs.
For comparison, the top teams in the EC in terms of points per home game:
DC - 30 pts - 13 games
NER - 26 pts - 13 games
Crew - 25 pts - 13 games
RBNY - 23 pts - 11 games
Montreal - 20 pts - 11 games
All of those teams = playoffs. (Only Toronto is not there and that is because TOR has played so few home games).
(To stop being debbie downer - NYCFC is 4th in terms of road points with 12, behind RBNY, TOR - b/c of so many road games - and DCU. So maybe there is a silver lining in that NYCFC might gain some points with the road games left).
We must pray harder to the Soccer Godz. Praise be. Praise be. In order for NYCFC to make the playoffs we must all abstain from sex in all forms until the end of the season. For only then will the Godz answer our prayers for a playoff spot in our first season.
This is an internet message board, no sex is assumed.
"Doesn't work, I've been doing it all season." - Ned Grabavoy
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