By The Numbers: What We've Done, What Must We Do

[Sabo]

Chicago is about to transfer out Shaun Maloney, one of their best players. If we can't outperform Chicago, Philadelphia and Orlando for the rest of the season we don't make the playoffs. If NE, Montreal or Toronto doesn't stumble and underperform we don't make the playoffs.

We need the win against Columbus. Huge game for us.

 

[Tony L]

Tied in points with New York City but with four whole games in hand, the Impact are in the driver's seat for the sixth and final seed in the East. If NYCFC wants to catch them, here's my favorite scenario:

• Montreal (12 games remaining): Draw @ Toronto, Win vs. Chicago, Loss @ L.A., Loss @ San Jose, Draw vs. New England, Win vs. Chicago, Draw @ Orlando City, Loss @ Red Bulls, Draw @ Colorado, Loss @ New England, Draw vs. Toronto.Final points: 39.
• New York City (8 games remaining): Win vs. Columbus, Loss @ Dallas, Draw vs. Toronto, Draw vs. San Jose, Loss @ Vancouver, Draw @ D.C., Win @ Orlando City,Win vs. New England. Final points: 40.

Found this article this morning and found it interesting given the topic at hand. What do you guys think? Tall order if you ask me, though not totally impossible .... but ya ...

 

[CP_Scouse]

Orlando, Montreal must lose this week and NE must lose this and next week

 

[Tom in Fairfield CT]

We are in the "hoping for a miracle" part of the playoff hunt. Its still fun, but the logic monster is getting bigger and uglier.

 

[Sabo]

NYC going 3-3-2 and Montreal going 2-5-5 the rest of the way is not a miracle. Sporting KC is way better than Montreal and look what happened to KC this week when their crowded schedule caught up to them.

 

[JayH]

Insta-ban on T Tom in Fairfield CT please.

 

[SoupInNYC]

Again, I don't get the superior attitude against Chicago. In addition to never losing to us, they just a beat a team that made us look like middle-schoolers 3 times. We can finish ahead of them, but right now we are in exactly the same class as them.

I understand that they've never lost to us, and that they just beat the Red Bulls, but I'm guessing it has to do with the following:

• We lost 1-0 at Chicago on a goal that Meara dropped the ball on, literally. A game in which we played a man down for 66 minutes of game time (not including stoppages) after Jacobson was red-carded.
• We tied 2-2 at home after going down 2-0 in the 27' and a man down the rest of the match.
• In both of the above games, this was well before our midseason transfers came in (I know much argument could be made that they haven't made us all that better) and this was during our huge winless slump.
• Chicago has not played well most of the season and have nobody really of note on their roster

Now, again.....I think those are some of the reasons why this superior attitude exists. I do agree, we really are not in a position to be feeling this way. We are not getting enough results, and as pointed out, they are 2 points back with a game in hand.

I do think we are a much better team than them, but the current standings definitely do not show that, and that, I cannot argue against.

 

[FootyLovin]

I understand that they've never lost to us, and that they just beat the Red Bulls, but I'm guessing it has to do with the following:

• We lost 1-0 at Chicago on a goal that Meara dropped the ball on, literally. A game in which we played a man down for 66 minutes of game time (not including stoppages) after Jacobson was red-carded.
• We tied 2-2 at home after going down 2-0 in the 27' and a man down the rest of the match.
• In both of the above games, this was well before our midseason transfers came in (I know much argument could be made that they haven't made us all that better) and this was during our huge winless slump.
• Chicago has not played well most of the season and have nobody really of note on their roster

Now, again.....I think those are some of the reasons why this superior attitude exists. I do agree, we really are not in a position to be feeling this way. We are not getting enough results, and as pointed out, they are 2 points back with a game in hand.

I do think we are a much better team than them, but the current standings definitely do not show that, and that, I cannot argue against.

And for the record. The Khiry goal in stoppage of the second game to give us the tie in front of the supporter side goal was one of the highlights of the season.

 

[mgarbowski]

I understand that they've never lost to us, and that they just beat the Red Bulls, but I'm guessing it has to do with the following:

• We lost 1-0 at Chicago on a goal that Meara dropped the ball on, literally. A game in which we played a man down for 66 minutes of game time (not including stoppages) after Jacobson was red-carded.
• We tied 2-2 at home after going down 2-0 in the 27' and a man down the rest of the match.
• In both of the above games, this was well before our midseason transfers came in (I know much argument could be made that they haven't made us all that better) and this was during our huge winless slump.
• Chicago has not played well most of the season and have nobody really of note on their roster

Now, again.....I think those are some of the reasons why this superior attitude exists. I do agree, we really are not in a position to be feeling this way. We are not getting enough results, and as pointed out, they are 2 points back with a game in hand.

I do think we are a much better team than them, but the current standings definitely do not show that, and that, I cannot argue against.

Fair enough. I never want to discourage optimism. It's that line between optimism and overconfidence/certainty we all need to gauge.

 

[mgarbowski]

Insta-ban on T Tom in Fairfield CT please.

Yeah I cannot unsee what he posted.

 

[Falastur]

Chicago's Schedule:

Home: Orlando, New England, Red Bulls
Away: Orlando, Montreal, Red Bulls, Montreal, Toronto, DC United

Pretty tough, with Red Bulls twice and DC, plus 6 Away games compared to only 3 at home.

On the other hand, their games against Montreal create a dilemma for us. If Montreal beats them we have a hard time catching Montreal, but if the Fire help us and beats the Impact then they start maybe crawling over us. Plus they play Orlando twice in less than a month and Orlando is in a death spiral at the moment.

When two teams who could both catch you/you need to catch in the league play each other, you always hope for a draw. It's the only solution which sets back both teams, plus the total points handed out (1+1=2) is less than the three points of a single team winning, meaning overall a win becomes more valuable to you anyway.

 

[mgarbowski]

When two teams who could both catch you/you need to catch in the league play each other, you always hope for a draw. It's the only solution which sets back both teams, plus the total points handed out (1+1=2) is less than the three points of a single team winning, meaning overall a win becomes more valuable to you anyway.

I just counted, being careful not to count any game twice, which is an easy mistake to make.* If you believe we can potentially catch New England and Montreal, and must still worry about Orlando, Philly and Chicago, then there are 12 games remaining between those teams. That does not seem like an inordinate amount as each of those teams has 8-12 games remaining. They are obviously not all going to be ties, but if a third of them are, that leave sonly 8 games where there is a bad result no matter what. I feared it would be worse.

* Oh look, Montreal plays Chicago twice. [Later] Hmm, Chicago plays Montreal twice. This is adding up. No it's not.

 

[canchon]

Basically, for NY to make the playoffs, they will have to play their remaining eight games at a PPG greater than the best team in the league year to date.

To get to 45 points, NY needs 17 points in 8 matches - 2.13 PPG.
LA is in the supporters shield with 1.7 PPG and Vancouver is tops now in PPG with 1.73 PPG so far.
That would require an unbelievable turnaround.

Say NY plays its last eight games equal to the top teams in the league so far and gets 1.7 PPG - they end up with 42 points, probably about 3 back of a playoff spot. Now think back to all those early games where NY dropped points early on. Ouch.

 

[WestSideGuy]

Have you ever watched Sunday afternoon at the Masters? Granted, the pressure is not the same, but you get what I'm saying.

We have to win and keep winning at a rate much better than we have so far. Others may or may not fall apart, but if we don't win we don't have a chance.

We will learn a lot about this team's character from here on in. While I really hope we make the playoffs, it's the character and the way they respond to adversity that is much more important for me at that point. Is this going to be like being down 1 nil at halftime to DC United and coming back to win handily, or is it going to be like everyone pouting after a foul while LA takes the free kick and puts it past Saunders?

 

[LionNYC]

Have you ever watched Sunday afternoon at the Masters? Granted, the pressure is not the same, but you get what I'm saying.

So hopefully all of our players are sleeping with other people besides their wives. You know pre-2009 Tiger Woods.

 

[FootyLovin]

So hopefully all of our players are sleeping with other people besides their wives. You know pre-2009 Tiger Woods.

Has anyone checked their Ashley Madison accounts?

 

[NYCFCFan10]

Yeah, it's funny, a glance at the standings and we appear to be right there in the thick of it, but, in reality, it's pretty desperate right now.

I just wish we could get some consistency this season.

Calle comes in, Calle goes out, Calle comes back, goes back out.
Mix out for USMNT.
Iraola, Angelino, Pirlo, Mena all come in.
Mendoza, Shelton, Alvarez, Grabavoy, Velasquez and Nemec go out in various degrees.
Lampard in, Lampard back out, Lampard back in.

It's just insane. No time for a team to gel.

 

[mgarbowski]

Yeah, it's funny, a glance at the standings and we appear to be right there in the thick of it, but, in reality, it's pretty desperate right now.

I just wish we could get some consistency this season.

Calle comes in, Calle goes out, Calle comes back, goes back out.
Mix out for USMNT.
Iraola, Angelino, Pirlo, Mena all come in.
Mendoza, Shelton, Alvarez, Grabavoy, Velasquez and Nemec go out in various degrees.
Lampard in, Lampard back out, Lampard back in.

It's just insane. No time for a team to gel.

You do the hokey-pokey and you turn yourself around.

 

[canchon]

Close the thread. We're done here.

 

[The Toe]

Klopas out in Montreal, just an FYI