2020 CCL

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adam

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Guess we have to start somewhere. We’re finally moving up the table. Qualification this year is back to normal:

1. 1st place in the East
2. 1st place in the West
3. USOC winner
4. MLS Cup winner

If any doubles, OR CANADIANS*, next spot in the Shield standings gets it.

As always USOC is our best bet to get in. We’ll know our first opponent in a few weeks. And the East is a tight race. If we can continue our run, we might be able to qualify that way as well.

* thanks mgarbowski mgarbowski
 
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LionNYC

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Guess we have to start somewhere. We’re finally moving up the table. Qualification this year is back to normal:

1. 1st place in the East
2. 1st place in the West
3. USOC winner
4. MLS Cup winner

If any doubles next spot in the Shield standings gets it.

As always USOC is our best bet to get in. We’ll know our first opponent in a few weeks. And the East is a tight race. If we can continue our run, we might be able to qualify that way as well.
Would it be alright to amend the title for "Race for 2020 CCL Qualification" or "Race for 2020 CCL Spot"?

The title seems like it would be in the MLS or Other Football thread, while CCL Qualification is directly linked to NYCFC Team News and Rumors!
 

adam

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Would it be alright to amend the title for "Race for 2020 CCL Qualification" or "Race for 2020 CCL Spot"?

The title seems like it would be in the MLS or Other Football thread, while CCL Qualification is directly linked to NYCFC Team News and Rumors!
Sure. Whateves
 
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LionNYC

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Well - Coming back to this with 11 matches left to play in the regular season. We control our own destiny to finish 1st in the Eastern Conference and get a spot in the CCL.
 
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adam

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Well - Coming back to this with 11 matches left to play in the regular season. We control our own destiny to finish 1st in the Eastern Conference and get a spot in the CCL.
And we got the match at ATL out of the way and still control our own destiny. Of the top 5 teams in the East we only have 3 matches remaining.

Host ATL
Host NJ
@ PHI
 

moogoo

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our schedule isn't going to be easy for the rest of the season. even cinci next game won't be as easy the second time around. they've reinforced their defense and are playing better now than before.

columbus has always been our bogey team, revs are actually a decent team now, the quakes man mark (which will cause us a lot of trouble if we don't know how to deal with it like vs ATL), toronto is strong when they want to play, etc, etc. I think the easiest game in our remaining schedule is vancouver.

i think we are definitely capable of finishing top in the east. but dome being forced to rotate our squad due to congested schedule will play a big part in that. not having ITS available and fit has really put a hurt on our offense because Mitri just can't be relied upon for any type of consistency. While Isi has off games here and there, he's generally reliable as an offensive threat and has great service on free kicks.

As much as I would love to see us top of the east and qualifying for CCL.. i'd rather us focus our efforts to win the cup. even if that means finishing 2nd or 3rd in the conf to make sure our keys players are fit and healthy for the playoffs.
 

adam

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our schedule isn't going to be easy for the rest of the season. even cinci next game won't be as easy the second time around. they've reinforced their defense and are playing better now than before.

columbus has always been our bogey team, revs are actually a decent team now, the quakes man mark (which will cause us a lot of trouble if we don't know how to deal with it like vs ATL), toronto is strong when they want to play, etc, etc. I think the easiest game in our remaining schedule is vancouver.

i think we are definitely capable of finishing top in the east. but dome being forced to rotate our squad due to congested schedule will play a big part in that. not having ITS available and fit has really put a hurt on our offense because Mitri just can't be relied upon for any type of consistency. While Isi has off games here and there, he's generally reliable as an offensive threat and has great service on free kicks.

As much as I would love to see us top of the east and qualifying for CCL.. i'd rather us focus our efforts to win the cup. even if that means finishing 2nd or 3rd in the conf to make sure our keys players are fit and healthy for the playoffs.
I think you’re discounting how much an advantage the #1 seed is with the new playoff format. Regardless of CCL. So it’s the same goal.
 

moogoo

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I think you’re discounting how much an advantage the #1 seed is with the new playoff format. Regardless of CCL. So it’s the same goal.
The advantage is having a bye week and getting more rest, which may be good for a team with such a congested schedule. But sometimes extra rest makes a team rusty and teams coming off a win with that confidence and momentum actually do better. So there's that.

In the end, our guys haven't shown they are prepared to come out in every match, regardless of the opponent, and play like their lives depend on it. If they played every game like they played against the RB's at home last year with 9 players, we'd already be top of this conference and in contention for supporter's shield.
 
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adam

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That last part os
The advantage is having a bye week and getting more rest, which may be good for a team with such a congested schedule. But sometimes extra rest makes a team rusty and teams coming off a win with that confidence and momentum actually do better. So there's that.

In the end, our guys haven't shown they are prepared to come out in every match, regardless of the opponent, and play like their lives depend on it. If they played every game like they played against the RB's at home last year with 9 players, we'd already be top of this conference and in contention for supporter's shield.
That last part of your post is important. #1 seed doesn’t play away (till LAFC). We play much better at home, bye or not.

also odd how you argued to not chase CCL and rest players. Then in your next response complain that a bye week takes players off their game.
 

moogoo

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It wasn't a complaint. More of an acknowledgement that it can happen. Sometimes having the momentum from a game recently in your memory is better than an extra week of rest. But the opposite can be true too. That first game of the playoffs can be a devastating one physically and mentally and having that bye week would be a god send if we were still recovering from injuries.
 

adam

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So this is how I see the East Race/CCL Race shaping up:

I broke it down into 3 parts. Pre-International Break. International break. Post-International Break.

PRE-INTERNATIONAL BREAK

  • Looks like Philly has the easiest schedule over this 2 week period with no mid-week matches and 2 of 3 games at home.
  • Atlanta has the toughest schedule with 5 matches crammed into 18 days, with 3 of them away. Also, their 2 home matches are the Campeones Cup and USOC final. I can see them fielding a B team for the CC, but they will be bringing their best for the USOC final and chance at they only trophy they have not yet earned in their 2.5 years in the league.
  • DCU has the next hardest schedule with 3 of 4 away and 1 midweek match.
  • NYCFC and NJRB have pretty much the same schedule with 2 home and 2 away, 1 mid-week match, and 1 of those matches versus each other. I give the nod on toughness to NJRB who has to play at DCU and at NYCFC, while their home vs NER (tough match) and COL (easy). NYCFC hosts NJ & CLB (easy) and is away to CIN (easy) and VAN (easy). *I don't think any match is ever easy, but these teams are not in good form.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. DCU
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. PHI

Screenshot 2019-08-12 22.49.33.png


INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

Only NYCFC play during the break. They have 2 home matches versus NER and TOR. Both tough matchups, but very winnable at home. My only worry is we'll be short-handed if our players go off to play for the NTs.

Screenshot 2019-08-12 22.49.38.png


POST-INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

  • Once again ATL has the most condensed schedule with 5 matches in 16 days and 6 total in the last 3 weeks. 3 are home and 3 are away. They host CLB, SJ, and NER. 2 of those 3 are tough matchups, but ATL is pretty strong at home. Their 3 away are versus CIN, NYCFC & MTL. 1 difficult, 1 medium, and 1 easy. But no matter the difficulty of opponents, when the schedule gets congested, it's hard to field strong teams against them all. (We learned that the hard way in the beginning of the season). Lucky for us too they play us on the road after 4 matches in 12 games.
  • Philly has a very tough schedule with 5 matches, 3 of them being away. Worse their 2 home matches are against LAFC and NYCFC, 2 of the top teams in the league. They are away to NJRB, SJ, and CLB; 2 of those are very strong as well. This may be the toughest stretch of any of the teams on the list.
  • DCU is the only team with 4 matches and no mid-week matchups. They are home to Seattle and Cincy. Seattle represents a tough out as they fight for playoff positioning in the West. They are away to NJRB and POR. Seems that even with the lighter schedule 3 of their 4 matches are real tough matchups.
  • NJRB plays 5 matches with 1 mid-week game. 3 away and 2 are home. Their 2 home matches are versus PHI & DCU, both teams towards the top of the East fighting them for playoff positioning. Their 3 away matches includes a trip to the Pacific Northwest to play Seattle and Portland (one of those a mid-week match). They end away to Montreal who is battling for a playoff spot. I don't see 1 match on their schedule I would feel confidant about 3 points.
  • NYCFC also has 5 matches with 1 mid-week match. And also has 2 home and 3 away. Their home matches are against ATL and SJ, both very tough teams. Their away matches are versus Dallas (7th in West), NER (very hot), and PHI (currently top in the East). None of these are easy matches and should really test the team down the stretch.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. PHI
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. DCU


Screenshot 2019-08-12 22.49.43.png
 

Gotham Gator

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Here are the rules for qualifying out of the U.S. for 2020. There are 4 teams that qualify directly.
  • MLS Cup Champion
  • US Open Cup Champion - either Atlanta or Minnesota
  • 1st Place in Eastern Conference
  • 1st Place in Western Conference - LAFC*
If (1) a single club qualifies under more than one of the criteria above or (2) a Canadian club qualifies under any of the criteria above, then the highest placed U.S. team in the Supporters Shield standings that has not otherwise qualified will get the unfilled spot.

The 4 highest ranked teams in each conference that do not qualify for Champions League will play in the Leagues Cup in 2020.

* - okay, it's not official as of today, but it might as well be.
 

The Toe

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Obviously, we want to win the conference no matter what, but only having to finish above Philly is nice for CCL

Philly vs. Atlanta this weekend (tie and we win, we are in 1st with a game in hand and 3-game home stand following), vs. PUMAS, vs. LAFC, @NJ, @SJ, @Columbus, vs. NYC. Not easy.
 

LionNYC

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Obviously, we want to win the conference no matter what, but only having to finish above Philly is nice for CCL

Philly vs. Atlanta this weekend (tie and we win, we are in 1st with a game in hand and 3-game home stand following), vs. PUMAS, vs. LAFC, @NJ, @SJ, @Columbus, vs. NYC. Not easy.
We have to finish above all teams not LAFC or Atlanta in the Supporters' Shield race to qualify for the Champions League.
 
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adam

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ATL is now 2019 USOC Champs. So...

CCL 2020 spots:

1. USOC: ATL
2. West: LAFC
3. East: NYC/ATL/PHI
4. MLS Cup
 

LionNYC

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ATL is now 2019 USOC Champs. So...

CCL 2020 spots:

1. USOC: ATL
2. West: LAFC
3. East: NYC/ATL/PHI
4. MLS Cup
Wait, if the team at the top of the East is not Atlanta then they claim it. If the team at the top of the East is Atlanta, then the team that qualified is the highest team in the Supporters' Shield that otherwise hasn't qualified (regardless of conference).