2020 CCL

[Gotham Gator]

The anarchist in me just wants to see what happens when we host Liga MX’s biggest teams at St Johns.

It's potentially complicated for sure. If we make CCL, then the first round is typically during midweek, the last two weeks of February. Not sure if that changes with MLS kicking off a bit earlier, but we could have a chilly game somewhere. The 2nd round was midweek the first two weeks of March. The semi-finals were the first two weeks of April, and the finals were at the end of April & beginning of May.

So, Yankee Stadium will be available for the first two rounds, though you have to wonder if we expect enough attendance to use it. After that, we are looking at games where there could be a conflict, but also potentially high attendance. Citi Field might be an option. I also wonder if we would use Wein Stadium, where Columbia plays. It seats 17,000, but it has turf.

 

[adam]

It's potentially complicated for sure. If we make CCL, then the first round is typically during midweek, the last two weeks of February. Not sure if that changes with MLS kicking off a bit earlier, but we could have a chilly game somewhere. The 2nd round was midweek the first two weeks of March. The semi-finals were the first two weeks of April, and the finals were at the end of April & beginning of May.

So, Yankee Stadium will be available for the first two rounds, though you have to wonder if we expect enough attendance to use it. After that, we are looking at games where there could be a conflict, but also potentially high attendance. Citi Field might be an option. I also wonder if we would use Wein Stadium, where Columbia plays. It seats 17,000, but it has turf.

Wherever it is, it’ll feel like a USMNTvMex match, outnumbered in our own house.

 

[Ulrich]

Atlanta has 3 trophies and we have none

And now Minnesota has been to a Final.

And (barring a cataclysmic implosion) LAFC will have the Supporters Shield.

Getting lapped by the expansion teams (minus FC Cincy). Can’t wait for Team Inter Becks to throw down with owners that want to spend on players.

 

[SoupInNYC]

And now Minnesota has been to a Final.

And (barring a cataclysmic implosion) LAFC will have the Supporters Shield.

Getting lapped by the expansion teams (minus FC Cincy). Can’t wait for Team Inter Becks to throw down with owners that want to spend on players.

I understand that Minnesota making a final is a great achievement, but I wouldn't say that a team that also hasn't made the playoffs yet has lapped us.

But, Minnesota is turning things around, so perhaps they end up making some noise in the playoffs. And I do think we probably need to revisit the conversation of how they built their team. Minnesota faced a ton of criticism for not spending much early on and taking their time with their DPs and their methodical roster building has now led to a quality squad.

I understand that LAFC and Atlanta have been more successful than they have, but perhaps the route that Minnesota has gone is very noteworthy and a lesson for future expansion clubs to come.

 

[mgarbowski]

I understand that Minnesota making a final is a great achievement, but I wouldn't say that a team that also hasn't made the playoffs yet has lapped us.

But, Minnesota is turning things around, so perhaps they end up making some noise in the playoffs. And I do think we probably need to revisit the conversation of how they built their team. Minnesota faced a ton of criticism for not spending much early on and taking their time with their DPs and their methodical roster building has now led to a quality squad.

I understand that LAFC and Atlanta have been more successful than they have, but perhaps the route that Minnesota has gone is very noteworthy and a lesson for future expansion clubs to come.

Also, Minnesota was lucky and played 3 of its 4 USOC games at home to reach the final. Their only road win came against a Houston team that was already cratering. We beat DC in DC before the Rooney rumors and before their fall. I don't think MNU lapped us just because they got lucky with coin flips and won 4 games.
Further, I can't check it at the moment but I'm pretty sure they have a losing record since being in MLS. I'll take our history and current position over theirs any day. I can't imagine any NYCFC fan would make that trade either.

ETA: Minnesota is 33-47-15 all time in MLS for 1.20 PPG. We're 70-51-41 for 1.55 PPG.

 

[Fantazma]

Wherever it is, it’ll feel like a USMNTvMex match, outnumbered in our own house.

depends on the liga mx team, if you playing leon you aint getting heavily outnumbered.

 

[The Toe]

I want CCL because I want to host a mexican side when it's 28 degrees out.

 

[Shwafta]

You guys underestimate the amount of mexican or liga mx fans in NY. A chance like this will easily bring 25-30k into the stadium

 

[FredMertz]

The anarchist in me just wants to see what happens when we host Liga MX’s biggest teams at St Johns.

I'd think venues would be falling over themselves to host a top Liga MX team in a legit match, right?

 

[Fantazma]

You guys underestimate the amount of mexican or liga mx fans in NY. A chance like this will easily bring 25-30k into the stadium

out of the 2020 teams only leon wont bring huge numbers, however if its in st johns then it dont matter since that place only hold like 2500 anyway.

 

[moogoo]

now the big question....

CCL has been kind of a league killer for MLS teams in that teams playing in CCL tend to either have a horrible season (e.g., TFC in 2018, SKC 2019) or they get really slow starts to their season (e.g., ATL, NJRB). ATL was able to turn it around and get back to form. But this seems like a rarity with CCL teams. As much as I think it'd be awesome for us to be in CCL, I'm not sure I want to see our league season suffer either.

I think we have a lot of depth and if we keep a lot of our guys together for next season, it'll help a lot playing in CCL, which is pretty much pre-season. But I would hate to have a SKC-like season.

just thinking out loud... not saying we are guaranteed for a doomed season if we play CCL

 

[Fantazma]

now the big question....

CCL has been kind of a league killer for MLS teams in that teams playing in CCL tend to either have a horrible season (e.g., TFC in 2018, SKC 2019) or they get really slow starts to their season (e.g., ATL, NJRB). ATL was able to turn it around and get back to form. But this seems like a rarity with CCL teams. As much as I think it'd be awesome for us to be in CCL, I'm not sure I want to see our league season suffer either.

I think we have a lot of depth and if we keep a lot of our guys together for next season, it'll help a lot playing in CCL, which is pretty much pre-season. But I would hate to have a SKC-like season.

just thinking out loud... not saying we are guaranteed for a doomed season if we play CCL

wasnt the rumor to open up more tam/gam for the teams? this also because other 8 teams will be in that leagues cup and that will be more games to play so the teams need more depth ?

 

[Gotham Gator]

Looking at the 538 odds, we currently have an 80% chance of making the top 2 spots in the East. Now, a 2nd place spot in the East doesn't guarantee us a CCL spot because the 2nd place West team might beat us, but that is pretty unlikely at this point.* Also, we could end up behind a West team or finish 3rd in the East and still make CCL if LAFC or Atlanta (or we) win the MLS Cup.

So, I think 80% to make CCL is a pretty good estimate.

We are 99%+ to finish top 5 in the East, so if we don't make CCL, we will play in the Leagues Cup.

_____
* - Teams 2-5 in the West are on 42 or 43 points. We are at 47 points with a game in hand.

 

[Shwafta]

Looking at the 538 odds, we currently have an 80% chance of making the top 2 spots in the East. Now, a 2nd place spot in the East doesn't guarantee us a CCL spot because the 2nd place West team might beat us, but that is pretty unlikely at this point.* Also, we could end up behind a West team or finish 3rd in the East and still make CCL if LAFC or Atlanta (or we) win the MLS Cup.

So, I think 80% to make CCL is a pretty good estimate.

We are 99%+ to finish top 5 in the East, so if we don't make CCL, we will play in the Leagues Cup.

_____
* - Teams 2-5 in the West are on 42 or 43 points. We are at 47 points with a game in hand.

As I pointed out in another thread, if we win and Orlando loses their game against Dallas, AND montreal loses one of their games this week, we qualify for the playoffs. Which means we are even closer to finishing above 6 and 5 if that's the case

 

[FredMertz]

Looking at the 538 odds, we currently have an 80% chance of making the top 2 spots in the East. Now, a 2nd place spot in the East doesn't guarantee us a CCL spot because the 2nd place West team might beat us, but that is pretty unlikely at this point.* Also, we could end up behind a West team or finish 3rd in the East and still make CCL if LAFC or Atlanta (or we) win the MLS Cup.

So, I think 80% to make CCL is a pretty good estimate.

We are 99%+ to finish top 5 in the East, so if we don't make CCL, we will play in the Leagues Cup.

_____
* - Teams 2-5 in the West are on 42 or 43 points. We are at 47 points with a game in hand.

Don't forget that if LAFC wins the MLS Cup, an additional spot opens up.

 

[LionNYC]

Don't forget that if LAFC wins the MLS Cup, an additional spot opens up.

But we’re going to win MLS Cup

 

[canchon]

But we’re going to win MLS Cup

At Citi Field

 

[FredMertz]

But we’re going to win MLS Cup

Sorry — thought I was posting in phillyunionforums.com

 

[adam]

So this is how I see the East Race/CCL Race shaping up:

I broke it down into 3 parts. Pre-International Break. International break. Post-International Break.

PRE-INTERNATIONAL BREAK

• Looks like Philly has the easiest schedule over this 2 week period with no mid-week matches and 2 of 3 games at home.
• Atlanta has the toughest schedule with 5 matches crammed into 18 days, with 3 of them away. Also, their 2 home matches are the Campeones Cup and USOC final. I can see them fielding a B team for the CC, but they will be bringing their best for the USOC final and chance at they only trophy they have not yet earned in their 2.5 years in the league.
• DCU has the next hardest schedule with 3 of 4 away and 1 midweek match.
• NYCFC and NJRB have pretty much the same schedule with 2 home and 2 away, 1 mid-week match, and 1 of those matches versus each other. I give the nod on toughness to NJRB who has to play at DCU and at NYCFC, while their home vs NER (tough match) and COL (easy). NYCFC hosts NJ & CLB (easy) and is away to CIN (easy) and VAN (easy). *I don't think any match is ever easy, but these teams are not in good form.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. DCU
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. PHI

View attachment 10111


INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

Only NYCFC play during the break. They have 2 home matches versus NER and TOR. Both tough matchups, but very winnable at home. My only worry is we'll be short-handed if our players go off to play for the NTs.

View attachment 10112


POST-INTERNATIONAL BREAK:

• Once again ATL has the most condensed schedule with 5 matches in 16 days and 6 total in the last 3 weeks. 3 are home and 3 are away. They host CLB, SJ, and NER. 2 of those 3 are tough matchups, but ATL is pretty strong at home. Their 3 away are versus CIN, NYCFC & MTL. 1 difficult, 1 medium, and 1 easy. But no matter the difficulty of opponents, when the schedule gets congested, it's hard to field strong teams against them all. (We learned that the hard way in the beginning of the season). Lucky for us too they play us on the road after 4 matches in 12 games.
• Philly has a very tough schedule with 5 matches, 3 of them being away. Worse their 2 home matches are against LAFC and NYCFC, 2 of the top teams in the league. They are away to NJRB, SJ, and CLB; 2 of those are very strong as well. This may be the toughest stretch of any of the teams on the list.
• DCU is the only team with 4 matches and no mid-week matchups. They are home to Seattle and Cincy. Seattle represents a tough out as they fight for playoff positioning in the West. They are away to NJRB and POR. Seems that even with the lighter schedule 3 of their 4 matches are real tough matchups.
• NJRB plays 5 matches with 1 mid-week game. 3 away and 2 are home. Their 2 home matches are versus PHI & DCU, both teams towards the top of the East fighting them for playoff positioning. Their 3 away matches includes a trip to the Pacific Northwest to play Seattle and Portland (one of those a mid-week match). They end away to Montreal who is battling for a playoff spot. I don't see 1 match on their schedule I would feel confidant about 3 points.
• NYCFC also has 5 matches with 1 mid-week match. And also has 2 home and 3 away. Their home matches are against ATL and SJ, both very tough teams. Their away matches are versus Dallas (7th in West), NER (very hot), and PHI (currently top in the East). None of these are easy matches and should really test the team down the stretch.

So my toughness scale, from hardest to easiest for this stretch is:

1. ATL
2. PHI
3. NJRB
4. NYCFC
5. DCU


View attachment 10113

Just completed Phase 1 of my 3 part breakdown. How did the teams fare?

1. ATL 2-1-0. (And won USOC & CC). Big surprise was the win in Portland.
2. DCU 1-3-0. Wow. Basically eliminated themselves from the 1st place conversation with this stretch. Now they have to play their asses off for a home match.
3. NJRB 1-2-1. They are also out of the 1st place race.
4. NYCFC 4-0-0 (+7GD). Things couldn’t have gone any better (injuries & suspensions aside). Became the favorite over this stretch and still have games in hand at home over Intl break when no other teams from this group play.
5. PHI 2-1-0. They kept pace with ATL. Big test is their 3 away games in 9 days coming up in Phase 3.

 

[Shwafta]

Just completed Phase 1 of my 3 part breakdown. How did the teams fare?

1. ATL 2-1-0. (And won USOC & CC). Big surprise was the win in Portland.
2. DCU 0-4-0. Wow. Basically eliminated themselves from the 1st place conversation with this stretch. Now they have to play their asses off for a home match.
3. NJRB 1-2-1. They are also out of the 1st place race.
4. NYCFC 4-0-0 (+7GD). Things couldn’t have gone any better (injuries & suspensions aside). Became the favorite over this stretch and still have games in hand at home over Intl break when no other teams from this group play.
5. PHI 2-1-0. They kept pace with ATL. Big test is their 3 away games in 9 days coming up in Phase 3.

What about DC's win over montreal?