Away - March 1 - Columbus

[ZYanksRule]

So, here is the question.

We have a crucial CCL return leg on Wednesday, and then 3 days' off before a game at Columbus to open MLS play.

Do we rotate the squad at all between those two games, and if so, how do we do it?

• Do we prioritize the CCL match, notwithstanding that our 5-3 away win makes it really hard to lose the series?
• Do we prioritize Columbus so that we are properly focused on MLS?
• Do we mix it up?
• Do we just expect that with 3 days' off, our players can adjust and go with our Best XI both games?

Full XI for the CCL game. That game is far more important than 1/34. We can make up the points in MLS in May and June, we can't make it up if we blow a CCL game.

I'd be perfectly happy with a completely rotated squad for all our MLS games while we're still in CCL.

 

[moogoo]

Full XI for the CCL game. That game is far more important than 1/34. We can make up the points in MLS in May and June, we can't make it up if we blow a CCL game.

I'd be perfectly happy with a completely rotated squad for all our MLS games while we're still in CCL.

I agree. The great thing is even our rotated squad is pretty damn solid. So it's not like we are Fielding a complete second string of noobs. The only one who we don't really know about is gudi. Hopefully he's comfortable with our style of play and is getting comfortable in the role expected of him.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I agree. The great thing is even our rotated squad is pretty damn solid. So it's not like we are Fielding a complete second string of noobs. The only one who we don't really know about is gudi. Hopefully he's comfortable with our style of play and is getting comfortable in the role expected of him.

Right. And I think there are guys who can play both games. Sands, Chanot, Callens, Johnson, Tinnerholm are all guys I wouldn't be surprised to see in both games.

Think we probably see Castellanos, Tajouri-Shradi, GMS, Medina as our attacking four for the CLB game. Gudi, Ibeagha, either Chanot or Callens, Tinnerholm, Johnson. Question is who starts in midfield. Sands with Gedion?

So based on that for the CLB game ...

ITS-Taty-GMS
---Medina---
-Sands-Zelalem
Gudi-Ibeagha-Callens-Tinnerholm
----Johnson----

Still a damn good XI.

 

[ManhattanValley]

I guess I'm in the minority here but I say you field your second string XI tonight and save the best XI for the more difficult game. I just can't see our second XI screwing up this second leg, so why force any of our first XI to play twice in four days? Fatigue/fixture congestion are major issues for any team in the CCL, so any opportunity you have to rest players, you should take it. And if a two goal lead at 'home' with five (!) away goals against a clearly inferior opponent isn't an opportunity, then what is?

This squad has a genuine shot at the Shield this year. There's no excuse to be hyping our squad depth one minute, then punting on games in literally Week 1 of the season.

 

[Shwafta]

In the press conference, Deila says he's not sure yet because he's with the same dilemma.

I guess I'm in the minority here but I say you field your second string XI tonight and save the best XI for the more difficult game. I just can't see our second XI screwing up this second leg, so why force any of our first XI to play twice in four days? Fatigue/fixture congestion are major issues for any team in the CCL, so any opportunity you have to rest players, you should take it. And if a two goal lead at 'home' with five (!) away goals against a clearly inferior opponent isn't an opportunity, then what is?

This squad has a genuine shot at the Shield this year. There's no excuse to be hyping our squad depth one minute, then punting on games in literally Week 1 of the season.

I would rather win CCL than win the first game of the season, ngl. Last year we didn't win until like MD6 and we still came damn-near the shield, so I have no problem 'punting' the first game.

 

[mgarbowski]

I get why you'd think this, but interestingly we've underachieved at first under successive new coaches and overachieved after a period of acclimation:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1227658750066143232

I saw that on Twitter when he posted it. Interesting stuff, but I'm not sure it has broad implications.

First, obviously, it's just 2 data points from 1 team.
Second, he's relying on a xGD to GD comparison which combines offensive and defensive over or under performance. I checked the Vieira start, and our underperformance then was all due to defense: In the first 15 games (the bad stretch as I mark it) in 2016 NYC scored 22 goals compared to 21.1 xGoals, but allowed 28 Goals compared to 20.7 XGoals against. So that has little to do with my point about the difference between creating more good chances and finishing rate. I also don't think our defense in that stretch was "unlucky." I think the xGoal metric probably underweights the ease of scoring undefended on the keeper after a giveaway playing from the back, which we allowed repeatedly during that stretch. Eventually we improved that and our "luck" also improved. Overall, I'm still of the mind that variances between actual goals and xGoals is a combination of luck and team specific factors which xGoals fails to capture.

Finally, I find it interesting that his NYCFC chart runs counter to one of the favorite anecdote types used by soccer advanced stat proponents. They commonly note that coaches or managers are often fired after a prolonged spell of XG underperformance, and the new coach often enough benefits from the inevitable swing of the chart in the other direction. So it looks like the change worked even though it was just a swing of random chance. And they can easily find individual data points to support this theme. Again, the NYC graph is just 2 data points the other direction, but I'd be interested in a study that goes beyond anecdotal data and covers numerous coaching changes across leagues and years to see how this tends to play out.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Isn't the difference between expected goal differential and goal differential usually attributed to luck? Or maybe to the quality of finishing?

To put it another way, isn't the point of a coach's strategy and tactics to maximize expected goal differential?

If that's correct, I don't see how that chart has any implications for coaching.

 

[Marito]

I also think we could field a B team tonight and bring in starters as needed. San Carlos would need to win 3-0 to advance, and that's a tough ask. They are clearly inferior to our starting XI and IMHO also to our B team. We should try to score 1 quickly and that pretty much puts the game away. To field our best XI tonight and keep it for 90 min would be malpractice. There is no reason to waste MLS points just because it is the first week.

 

[moogoo]

I also think we could field a B team tonight and bring in starters as needed. San Carlos would need to win 3-0 to advance, and that's a tough ask. They are clearly inferior to our starting XI and IMHO also to our B team. We should try to score 1 quickly and that pretty much puts the game away. To field our best XI tonight and keep it for 90 min would be malpractice. There is no reason to waste MLS points just because it is the first week.

they have already scored 3 on us in CR. if we have lapses, there's always a chance they can score 3 more. i don't think san carlos is to be underestimated. this is a knock out round. we have to make sure we win. plus, as I said in my earlier post, a few of our starters need minutes anyway, so this is a good opportunity for them to get a solid 60-70 minutes in, lock down the game, and then get subbed off.

 

[Gotham Gator]

One question is what to do with Maxi. He only played 26 minutes last week. He probably needs more game time. I think he starts and gets subbed.

The situation with Maxi then has knock on effects in the midfield. If Maxi starts, one of Ring, Parks and Sands will come off the bench. That person will then be fresh for a start on Sunday. Maybe have Parks come off the bench for Maxi late and start as a #8 against Columbus.

 

[Ulrich]

One question is what to do with Maxi. He only played 26 minutes last week. He probably needs more game time. I think he starts and gets subbed.

The situation with Maxi then has knock on effects in the midfield. If Maxi starts, one of Ring, Parks and Sands will come off the bench. That person will then be fresh for a start on Sunday. Maybe have Parks come off the bench for Maxi late and start as a #8 against Columbus.

Bench Maxi. We don’t need goals and creativity tonight. And our opponents back is against the wall so it’ll be chippy.

Maxi can get additional fitness without risk of contact injury this week in practice. He can play himself into shape at the same rate at columbus.

 

[The Toe]

If Gudi is hurt, I worry about Mata going so hard 3 games in a row. Maybe he gets a sub tonight if we're up a bunch

 

[moogoo]

If Gudi is hurt, I worry about Mata going so hard 3 games in a row. Maybe he gets a sub tonight if we're up a bunch

there's always rocha, as much as we don't like it. also Torres.

 

[Gotham Gator]

there's always rocha, as much as we don't like it. also Torres.

Or Callens if we hold our lead and want to defend a bit.

 

[canchon]

Columbus and Toronto are generally held as two of the top four teams in the East. So the first two games are potentially 2 of the 3 toughest road games this year. Getting one win out of these first two games would be excellent. Even two ties is a great result.

 

[moogoo]

Columbus and Toronto are generally held as two of the top four teams in the East. So the first two games are potentially 2 of the 3 toughest road games this year. Getting one win out of these first two games would be excellent. Even two ties is a great result.

i'm perfectly fine with two draws on the road while ensuring we get the win to advance in CCL. especially with a san carlos side who believes they can pull off a barca vs psg/ roma v. barca/ liverpool v. barca type comeback

 

[Christopher Jee]

I saw that on Twitter when he posted it. Interesting stuff, but I'm not sure it has broad implications.

First, obviously, it's just 2 data points from 1 team.
Second, he's relying on a xGD to GD comparison which combines offensive and defensive over or under performance. I checked the Vieira start, and our underperformance then was all due to defense: In the first 15 games (the bad stretch as I mark it) in 2016 NYC scored 22 goals compared to 21.1 xGoals, but allowed 28 Goals compared to 20.7 XGoals against. So that has little to do with my point about the difference between creating more good chances and finishing rate. I also don't think our defense in that stretch was "unlucky." I think the xGoal metric probably underweights the ease of scoring undefended on the keeper after a giveaway playing from the back, which we allowed repeatedly during that stretch. Eventually we improved that and our "luck" also improved. Overall, I'm still of the mind that variances between actual goals and xGoals is a combination of luck and team specific factors which xGoals fails to capture.

Finally, I find it interesting that his NYCFC chart runs counter to one of the favorite anecdote types used by soccer advanced stat proponents. They commonly note that coaches or managers are often fired after a prolonged spell of XG underperformance, and the new coach often enough benefits from the inevitable swing of the chart in the other direction. So it looks like the change worked even though it was just a swing of random chance. And they can easily find individual data points to support this theme. Again, the NYC graph is just 2 data points the other direction, but I'd be interested in a study that goes beyond anecdotal data and covers numerous coaching changes across leagues and years to see how this tends to play out.

I don't disagree with anything here. Thank you for bringing some statistical literacy and criticality, it's very rare inside and outside of soccer.

Isn't the difference between expected goal differential and goal differential usually attributed to luck? Or maybe to the quality of finishing?

To put it another way, isn't the point of a coach's strategy and tactics to maximize expected goal differential?

If that's correct, I don't see how that chart has any implications for coaching.

It's pretty common to attribute it to luck but I tend to disagree. To me it's intuitive if a player has mostly been dedicating mental cycles to "following coach's orders", that has ramifications for finishing. When those orders are internalized as habit, finishing follows. But like mgarbowski says, I'd like to see more data.

 

[moogoo]

i wonder if all the information from the new player tracking system being implemented by MLS will be available to fans to look up and review. I think that'd be pretty cool if they did make it available.

The article about it said they spent the off season installing the required cameras to do the tracking and real time data analysis, but i really wonder if Yankee Stadium and/or Citi field included in the implementation due to the non-standard sightlines of the cameras and such.

Looking forward to seeing in broadcasted games and especially, post game analysis shows.

 

[Christopher Jee]

i wonder if all the information from the new player tracking system being implemented by MLS will be available to fans to look up and review. I think that'd be pretty cool if they did make it available.

The article about it said they spent the off season installing the required cameras to do the tracking and real time data analysis, but i really wonder if Yankee Stadium and/or Citi field included in the implementation due to the non-standard sightlines of the cameras and such.

Looking forward to seeing in broadcasted games and especially, post game analysis shows.

Rabonas will only be available to Premium subscribers

 

[Gotham Gator]

Rabonas will only be available to Premium subscribers

And not on YouTubeTV.