I wonder if any of our forum guys who contribute to the Outfield have a view on whether Dome could ever return. Remember that they had a great session with him soon after he left. SoupInNYC EganSoccerWords @thundering165 dummyrun - What say you?i wish! i wonder if he would consider it. but the way he left, i'd be surprised if either party reached out. i do remember seeing him being interviewed for other jobs in MLS though...
We have very talented players on this team.
I've been leaning this way, hinted at Saturday night in my discussion of the weird age spread of our attacking players. But I do think Lee has made various mistakes.I think the same thing but if the losses continue at some point do we need to start considering that we may all overvalue the quality of our players? Cushing IMO is rightfully taking the brunt of the blame right now but its also possible our players aren't as good as we think they are.
I'm shocked at how few fingers are pointing at Lee. He has effectively wasted all of our DP spots, we used one on a CB which is a poor use for a DP, one on Santi who is talented but not enough of a difference maker to justify a DP spot, and one on Magno who can't break into the starting lineup. We spent $5M on Fernandez, $8M on Jovan, and $7M on Ojeda for a total of $20M. All three are exciting players that may all eventually be great but none of them are ready to start right now. I know it's very early and I'm not opposed to investing in prospects but how do we look right now if Lee only signed 2 of those 3 and instead used ~$7M on a proven striker or a Maxi-like CAM? Did every big $ we had need to be dumped into 18-year-olds? It's all hypothetical but I have a hard time believing we go goalless across 2 games if we have a prime Maxi-type playing CAM, or a proven striker capable of high-level movement and finishing.
I wasn't unfortunately unable to attend the meet up with Dome and really don't have a pulse on that at all. Many of those he clashed with are no longer in the NYCFC front office, so I guess it would be possible perhaps, but honestly I have no clue. It's definitely fun to speculate on thoughI wonder if any of our forum guys who contribute to the Outfield have a view on whether Dome could ever return. Remember that they had a great session with him soon after he left. SoupInNYC EganSoccerWords @thundering165 dummyrun - What say you?
I've wondered about this for a long time. Whenever people on these forums talk about the quality of our players I always wonder, how do you know? I imagine every fanbase thinks their incoming players are filled with talent.at some point do we need to start considering that we may all overvalue the quality of our players?
This is very optimistic. Almost too rose tinted to be honest. Like I follow the thought process but there is so many things that can go wrong. And what doesn’t follow that pattern is how they sold Gabi last summer. And you can very much disagree with me but I think we would see a lot more foundation building from last year and this year. Similar to what PV did when he arrived. As in, building a system and adhering to it until the players are beyond comfortable with it and then building off of it. Mistakes will be abound (I.e. Red Bull wedding) but at least growth and an idea of improvement would be there. Currently I’m not seeing any sort of system building this far from the team and Cushing.I've wondered about this for a long time. Whenever people on these forums talk about the quality of our players I always wonder, how do you know? I imagine every fanbase thinks their incoming players are filled with talent.
OTOH, I wonder if Lee/CFG are playing a different long game than we think. We all thought they basically sacrificed 2023. What if they also built the roster to be non-competitive in 2024, but to take off for a 2-4 year run from 2025-2028?
Basically, they've filled the team with youth that will take 1-2 years to build the skill to play proper CFG style. But when they do get there they will have multiple years as a core group, tons of still very youthful energy. And when they peak you'll have 1-2 DP contracts coming off that you can replace with a bonafide player to take them over the top for true trophy competition.
Is that crazy?
I've wondered about this for a long time. Whenever people on these forums talk about the quality of our players I always wonder, how do you know? I imagine every fanbase thinks their incoming players are filled with talent.
OTOH, I wonder if Lee/CFG are playing a different long game than we think. We all thought they basically sacrificed 2023. What if they also built the roster to be non-competitive in 2024, but to take off for a 2-4 year run from 2025-2028?
Basically, they've filled the team with youth that will take 1-2 years to build the skill to play proper CFG style. But when they do get there they will have multiple years as a core group, tons of still very youthful energy. And when they peak you'll have 1-2 DP contracts coming off that you can replace with a bonafide player to take them over the top for true trophy competition.
Is that crazy?
Unless he was just blatantly lying.. Lee said in his interview that they are aiming to win. Referred to lafc and Columbus as teams that failed to make the playoffs and then won the next year.I've wondered about this for a long time. Whenever people on these forums talk about the quality of our players I always wonder, how do you know? I imagine every fanbase thinks their incoming players are filled with talent.
OTOH, I wonder if Lee/CFG are playing a different long game than we think. We all thought they basically sacrificed 2023. What if they also built the roster to be non-competitive in 2024, but to take off for a 2-4 year run from 2025-2028?
Basically, they've filled the team with youth that will take 1-2 years to build the skill to play proper CFG style. But when they do get there they will have multiple years as a core group, tons of still very youthful energy. And when they peak you'll have 1-2 DP contracts coming off that you can replace with a bonafide player to take them over the top for true trophy competition.
Is that crazy?
Right. This goes back to the X-thread I posted here a months ago. The trend in MLS is to rely on the Academy for youth while spending transfer fees mostly on 24-26 year olds because the market undervalues them. Compared to what NYCFC is doing, those mid-20s incoming transfers offer less sell-on potential but cost less to acquire and have more certainty regarding performance. If you do spend $7-8M the players should be a near certain Best 11 candidate. And, players that age are more likely to hang around for 4-8 years.It's possible but if that's the plan but I don't see how the expensive 18-year-old trio of Fernandez, Jovan, and Ojeda fit that model. If any of those players bloom into the player that their high incoming price tags project they will be they will be gone before we hit year 3 in that window. If they flop then we blew all the Taty money on them and I doubt there will be more money for replacements.
I would be more inclined to believe we were going the slow-build route if the money was spread more evenly between players like Fernandez, Jovan, Ojeda, and slightly older players who have shown more in their career and are slightly safer bets to both pan out and stick around.
Oh they definitely expect to win short term. Maybe not MLS Cup, but in the mix. Last year surprised them (Lee and Cushing both). They expected Talles to adjust and flourish as the team's top scorer. They thought Santi could be more of a playmaker with help from other wingers. They said as much in interviews. They thought they could muddle thrugh somewhere in table spots 5-9 until the summer window and then get an added striker and go on a run at the end.Unless he was just blatantly lying.. Lee said in his interview that they are aiming to win. Referred to lafc and Columbus as teams that failed to make the playoffs and then won the next year.
Sure it's probably unlikely for him to say yes we're rebuilding again. But who knows anymore
Right. This goes back to the X-thread I posted here a months ago. The trend in MLS is to rely on the Academy for youth while spending transfer fees mostly on 24-26 year olds because the market undervalues them. Compared to what NYCFC is doing, those mid-20s incoming transfers offer less sell-on potential but cost less to acquire and have more certainty regarding performance. If you do spend $7-8M the players should be a near certain Best 11 candidate. And, players that age are more liklely to hang around for 4-8 years.
Do you want to get players with high floors, limited sell-on value, and a strong ikelihood of helping you win, or younger players with lower floors and higher upsieds, who, if they really work out, who you can sell at a profit just as they get really good, which allows you to buy more teenagers, sell at a profit, and buy yet more teenagers, etc.*
Oh they definitely expect to win short term. Maybe not MLS Cup, but in the mix. Last year surprised them (Lee and Cushing both). They expected Talles to adjust and flourish as the team's top scorer. They thought Santi could be more of a playmaker with help from other wingers. They thought they could muddle thrugh somewhere in table spots 5-9 until the summer window and then get an added striker and go on a run at the end.
I'm confident they expect to finish no lower than 7th this year, and probably 5th at least.
* My answer is why a mix? Sure, buy some like Talles and Jovan, but blend them in with some players like Bouanga, Muhktar, or Giakoumakis.
This is very optimistic. Almost too rose tinted to be honest. Like I follow the thought process but there is so many things that can go wrong. And what doesn’t follow that pattern is how they sold Gabi last summer. And you can very much disagree with me but I think we would see a lot more foundation building from last year and this year. Similar to what PV did when he arrived. As in, building a system and adhering to it until the players are beyond comfortable with it and then building off of it. Mistakes will be abound (I.e. Red Bull wedding) but at least growth and an idea of improvement would be there. Currently I’m not seeing any sort of system building this far from the team and Cushing.
NYCFC had acquired Gabi for 5.5M and sold him for 10M barely a year later. It was the kind of profit they couldn't say no to. From Gabi's perspective his salary was probably also increased 2x or 3x so he would also be eager to go.I don't think you can take a pattern from selling Gabi. Basically what happened was the Qatari team overpaid by such a dramatic amount, we had no choice but to accept. That's not a sustainable thing that will happen frequently.
I think they want to be competitive this year, and it feels like the team will improve as the year goes on. We barely have Ojeda and Jovan integrated. We only played two road games. We are, to be fair, overreacting to those two road games.
Even in 2021 we were awful on the road. We never win away from home. We're good because we (usually) never lose at home. We are overreacting to two road games and need to give the team a chance to win at home.
Here's the thing: what if the plan is to keep them? What if the organization is trying to identify potential MLS lifers they can sign young and convince to stay? What if the idea is to build a core to carry us into the stadium opening and beyond, rather than develop talent and sell?It's possible but if that's the plan but I don't see how the expensive 18-year-old trio of Fernandez, Jovan, and Ojeda fit that model. If any of those players bloom into the player that their high incoming price tags project they will be they will be gone before we hit year 3 in that window. If they flop then we blew all the Taty money on them and I doubt there will be more money for replacements.
I agree we are overreacting to 2 games, in part because last year was terrible. But your take on Away games is very off.Even in 2021 we were awful on the road. We never win away from home. We're good because we (usually) never lose at home. We are overreacting to two road games and need to give the team a chance to win at home.
We sold Sands and Harrison when each was 20. We sold Taty after 4 years when he was 23, but only because his breakout year did not come until he was 22. His production was deferred in part because we had some of Villa, Heber, Shradi and Mitrita in his first three years. We could afford to wait for him to excel. If Jovan (18), Ojeda (19), Ilenic (19) or Fernandez (20) have a stellar year soon they will want to move and we will accommodate that. If they don't we flounder unless older guys like Bakrar or Martinez (who never plays) carry us, or Talles suddenly unlocks, or every single one of the kids produces nicely but not too flashy.I don't think you can take a pattern from selling Gabi. Basically what happened was the Qatari team overpaid by such a dramatic amount, we had no choice but to accept. That's not a sustainable thing that will happen frequently.
I agree we are overreacting to 2 games, in part because last year was terrible. But your take on Away games is very off.
In 2016 NYC had 10 points after 8 games, of which 6 had been at home. Matt Doyle famously said we wouldn't make the playoffs because we wasted all those home games and couldn't make it up on the road. But in fact NYCFC saved the season by getting 16 points in the next 7 away games (2.29 PPG), and ranked first in MLS for away points that year. From 2015 through 2020 the team ranked higher in Away points than it did Home points every year but 2018. They had the most Away points in the league over that span. It turned in 2021, the year you noted. They won the Cup in spite of that, but NYC has not excelled away since, and it killed them last season. They ranked 15th in Home points in 2023, basically the league median. They ranked 26th in Away points. If they managed the same number of Away points as the teams who ranked 15-18 for Away points, then NYC would have had 47 points total, good for 8th and just 2 off 7th place in the East, instead of 11th.
We sold Sands and Harrison when each was 20. We sold Taty after 4 years when he was 23, but only because his breakout year did not come until he was 22. His production was deferred in part because we had some of Villa, Heber or Mitrita in his first three years. We could afford to wait for him to excel. If Jovan (18), Ojeda (19), Ilenic (19) or Fernandez (20) have a stellar year soon they will want to move and we will accommodate that. If they don't we flounder unless older guys like Bakrar or Martinez (who never plays) carry us, or Talles suddenly unlocks, or every single one of the kids produces nicely but not too flashy.
With Cushing or not, I think this team should finish 5-9. But it's hard to project above that. Fourth maybe if things go exceptionally well. The last time a team finished below 4 and won MLS Cup was 2010. In the last decade 8 Cup winners finished 3rd or higher. Just get in and make a run rarely happens.
Here's the thing: what if the plan is to keep them? What if the organization is trying to identify potential MLS lifers they can sign young and convince to stay? What if the idea is to build a core to carry us into the stadium opening and beyond, rather than develop talent and sell?
Maybe we're looking for guys who don't project to star in Europe but could star in MLS. What if the money is going to get good enough to match squaddies in the Big Five, or top salaries in the lower leagues?
I don't know if that's the case. But it's something to consider.
In Jovan's first interview he said he wants MLS to be a launch point for his career. He's already looking for the next move, and there's no reason he shouldn't.I cannot think of a non-American young player in the history of the league that has been good enough to earn in Europe that hasn't taken it. Someday if MLS continues to grow it will be as appealing as Europe but we are no where close to that. If any of these guys end up as MLS lifers its because they didn't develop and we wildly overpaid for them. 18 year olds that don't project to be good enough to get a decent offer in Europe someday are not worth anywhere near $8M.