MLS - March 2 - St. Louis (Away)
- Thread starter LionNYC
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I don't think the problem was a plan to try and play out of the back against the press. Our problem is that we are bad at it.
We have very talented players on this team. Our identity since 2016 has been a team that can progress the ball and play very well in tight spaces. We should be able to break a press like that at least a few times a game and get a transition chance on the other end.
We have very talented players on this team. Our identity since 2016 has been a team that can progress the ball and play very well in tight spaces. We should be able to break a press like that at least a few times a game and get a transition chance on the other end.
I wonder if any of our forum guys who contribute to the Outfield have a view on whether Dome could ever return. Remember that they had a great session with him soon after he left.
SoupInNYC
EganSoccerWords @thundering165 dummyrun - What say you?
I think the same thing but if the losses continue at some point do we need to start considering that we may all overvalue the quality of our players? Cushing IMO is rightfully taking the brunt of the blame right now but its also possible our players aren't as good as we think they are.
I'm shocked at how few fingers are pointing at Lee. He has effectively wasted all of our DP spots, we used one on a CB which is a poor use for a DP, one on Santi who is talented but not enough of a difference maker to justify a DP spot, and one on Magno who can't break into the starting lineup. We spent $5M on Fernandez, $8M on Jovan, and $7M on Ojeda for a total of $20M. All three are exciting players that may all eventually be great but none of them are ready to start right now. I know it's very early and I'm not opposed to investing in prospects but how do we look right now if Lee only signed 2 of those 3 and instead used ~$7M on a proven striker or a Maxi-like CAM? Did every big $ we had need to be dumped into 18-year-olds? It's all hypothetical but I have a hard time believing we go goalless across 2 games if we have a prime Maxi-type playing CAM, or a proven striker capable of high-level movement and finishing.
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I've been leaning this way, hinted at Saturday night in my discussion of the weird age spread of our attacking players. But I do think Lee has made various mistakes.
First though, some disclaimers: (1) I think Lee deserves meaningful partial credit for the Cup in 2021, and (2) Reyna never had the opportunity/temptation of U22 slots. And it's the U22 usage that IMO lies behind all of Lee's mistakes.
The MLS U22 initiative was announced April 2021. They sign Talles in May as a young DP, which is needed to maximize U22 slots. I give them a pass for Talles even though he really hasn't produced at the hoped-for level, because this was a unique Covid bargain opportunity. But it still ties in to U22 because I think one reason they went for the opportunity was the U22 factor.
They sign Martins in 2022 as a DP, and as you note, it was a very poor DP use. But in retrospect I now am pretty sure that Lee/CFG already planned to focus offensive acquisitions on the U22 slots , so they likely figured they could afford the CB DP even though previously CBs were traditionally a waste for DP slots.
Then they sign Santi as a seemingly accidental DP. He tries to leave, NYCFC lets him go, but he finds little interest at his salary ask, and NYC/CFG step in and sign him back as a DP. Which was nice for him, and felt good, and burnishes CFG's reputation of taking care of you if you join them, but wasn't really a good move for NYCFC. And then they have no DP slots for a proven scorer and can at best sign TAM deals or U22 transfers.
The Taty replacement saga was just a fail. Even if Bakrar eventually develops, he hasn't been the guy so far and waiting one full year to replace Taty and not get someone able to step in and be the guy from the jump is very poor. NYCFC has now gone 1.5 years without anyone who seems capable of scoring 15 or more goals a season. ETA: maybe even not 10-12 goals per season. Pereira scored 6 in 22 games and led the team.
As for the other young offensive players, again I agree - maybe they develop or maybe not. And maybe even some payoff soon. But going 100% this direction after the worst goal scoring season in club history is a weird choice. But they had few options, because of the choices previously made, with Martins arguably being the worst because it was the one most easily recognized as poor at the time.
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I wasn't unfortunately unable to attend the meet up with Dome and really don't have a pulse on that at all. Many of those he clashed with are no longer in the NYCFC front office, so I guess it would be possible perhaps, but honestly I have no clue. It's definitely fun to speculate on thoughI wonder if any of our forum guys who contribute to the Outfield have a view on whether Dome could ever return. Remember that they had a great session with him soon after he left.
I've wondered about this for a long time. Whenever people on these forums talk about the quality of our players I always wonder, how do you know? I imagine every fanbase thinks their incoming players are filled with talent.
OTOH, I wonder if Lee/CFG are playing a different long game than we think. We all thought they basically sacrificed 2023. What if they also built the roster to be non-competitive in 2024, but to take off for a 2-4 year run from 2025-2028?
Basically, they've filled the team with youth that will take 1-2 years to build the skill to play proper CFG style. But when they do get there they will have multiple years as a core group, tons of still very youthful energy. And when they peak you'll have 1-2 DP contracts coming off that you can replace with a bonafide player to take them over the top for true trophy competition.
Is that crazy?
This is very optimistic. Almost too rose tinted to be honest. Like I follow the thought process but there is so many things that can go wrong. And what doesn’t follow that pattern is how they sold Gabi last summer. And you can very much disagree with me but I think we would see a lot more foundation building from last year and this year. Similar to what PV did when he arrived. As in, building a system and adhering to it until the players are beyond comfortable with it and then building off of it. Mistakes will be abound (I.e. Red Bull wedding) but at least growth and an idea of improvement would be there. Currently I’m not seeing any sort of system building this far from the team and Cushing.
It's possible but if that's the plan but I don't see how the expensive 18-year-old trio of Fernandez, Jovan, and Ojeda fit that model. If any of those players bloom into the player that their high incoming price tags project they will be they will be gone before we hit year 3 in that window. If they flop then we blew all the Taty money on them and I doubt there will be more money for replacements.
I would be more inclined to believe we were going the slow-build route if the money was spread more evenly between players like Fernandez, Jovan, Ojeda, and slightly older players who have shown more in their career and are slightly safer bets to both pan out and stick around.
Unless he was just blatantly lying.. Lee said in his interview that they are aiming to win. Referred to lafc and Columbus as teams that failed to make the playoffs and then won the next year.
Sure it's probably unlikely for him to say yes we're rebuilding again. But who knows anymore
Right. This goes back to the X-thread I posted here a months ago. The trend in MLS is to rely on the Academy for youth while spending transfer fees mostly on 24-26 year olds because the market undervalues them. Compared to what NYCFC is doing, those mid-20s incoming transfers offer less sell-on potential but cost less to acquire and have more certainty regarding performance. If you do spend $7-8M the players should be a near certain Best 11 candidate. And, players that age are more likely to hang around for 4-8 years.
Do you want to get players with high floors, limited sell-on value, and a strong ikelihood of helping you win, or younger players with lower floors and higher upsides, who, if they really work out, who you can sell at a profit just as they get really good, which allows you to buy more teenagers, sell at a profit, and buy yet more teenagers, etc.*
Oh they definitely expect to win short term. Maybe not MLS Cup, but in the mix. Last year surprised them (Lee and Cushing both). They expected Talles to adjust and flourish as the team's top scorer. They thought Santi could be more of a playmaker with help from other wingers. They said as much in interviews. They thought they could muddle thrugh somewhere in table spots 5-9 until the summer window and then get an added striker and go on a run at the end.
I'm confident they expect to finish no lower than 7th this year, and probably 5th at least.
* My answer is why not a mix? Sure, buy some Talles and Jovan types, but blend them in with some players like Bouanga, Muhktar, or Giakoumakis.
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Right. This goes back to the X-thread I posted here a months ago. The trend in MLS is to rely on the Academy for youth while spending transfer fees mostly on 24-26 year olds because the market undervalues them. Compared to what NYCFC is doing, those mid-20s incoming transfers offer less sell-on potential but cost less to acquire and have more certainty regarding performance. If you do spend $7-8M the players should be a near certain Best 11 candidate. And, players that age are more liklely to hang around for 4-8 years.
Do you want to get players with high floors, limited sell-on value, and a strong ikelihood of helping you win, or younger players with lower floors and higher upsieds, who, if they really work out, who you can sell at a profit just as they get really good, which allows you to buy more teenagers, sell at a profit, and buy yet more teenagers, etc.*
Oh they definitely expect to win short term. Maybe not MLS Cup, but in the mix. Last year surprised them (Lee and Cushing both). They expected Talles to adjust and flourish as the team's top scorer. They thought Santi could be more of a playmaker with help from other wingers. They thought they could muddle thrugh somewhere in table spots 5-9 until the summer window and then get an added striker and go on a run at the end.
I'm confident they expect to finish no lower than 7th this year, and probably 5th at least.
* My answer is why a mix? Sure, buy some like Talles and Jovan, but blend them in with some players like Bouanga, Muhktar, or Giakoumakis.
The most bizarre part for me is that last year caught them off guard and they said they learned from it and would work to fix things. Yet the response was to go even more extreme on youth and prospect investment which as you point out is a big reason for the 2023 failures.
I don't think you can take a pattern from selling Gabi. Basically what happened was the Qatari team overpaid by such a dramatic amount, we had no choice but to accept. That's not a sustainable thing that will happen frequently.
I think they want to be competitive this year, and it feels like the team will improve as the year goes on. We barely have Ojeda and Jovan integrated. We only played two road games. We are, to be fair, overreacting to those two road games.
Even in 2021 we were awful on the road. We never win away from home. We're good because we (usually) never lose at home. We are overreacting to two road games and need to give the team a chance to win at home.
NYCFC had acquired Gabi for 5.5M and sold him for 10M barely a year later. It was the kind of profit they couldn't say no to. From Gabi's perspective his salary was probably also increased 2x or 3x so he would also be eager to go.
Here's the thing: what if the plan is to keep them? What if the organization is trying to identify potential MLS lifers they can sign young and convince to stay? What if the idea is to build a core to carry us into the stadium opening and beyond, rather than develop talent and sell?
Maybe we're looking for guys who don't project to star in Europe but could star in MLS. What if the money is going to get good enough to match squaddies in the Big Five, or top salaries in the lower leagues?
I don't know if that's the case. But it's something to consider.
I agree we are overreacting to 2 games, in part because last year was terrible. But your take on Away games is very off.
In 2016 NYC had 10 points after 8 games, of which 6 had been at home. Matt Doyle famously said we wouldn't make the playoffs because we wasted all those home games and couldn't make it up on the road. But in fact NYCFC saved the season by getting 16 points in the next 7 away games (2.29 PPG), and ranked first in MLS for away points that year. From 2015 through 2020 the team ranked higher in Away points than it did Home points every year but 2018. They had the most Away points in the league over that span. It turned in 2021, the year you noted. They won the Cup in spite of that, but NYC has not excelled away since, and it killed them last season. They ranked 15th in Home points in 2023, basically the league median. They ranked 26th in Away points. If they managed the same number of Away points as the team who ranked 15 on Away points, then NYC would have had 47 points total, good for 8th and just 2 off 7th place in the East, instead of 11th.
We sold Sands and Harrison when each was 20. We sold Taty after 4 years when he was 23, but only because his breakout year did not come until he was 22. His production was deferred in part because we had some of Villa, Heber, Shradi and Mitrita in his first three years. We could afford to wait for him to excel. If Jovan (18), Ojeda (19), Ilenic (19) or Fernandez (20) have a stellar year soon they will want to move and we will accommodate that. If they don't we flounder unless older guys like Bakrar or Martinez (who never plays) carry us, or Talles suddenly unlocks, or every single one of the kids produces nicely but not too flashy.
With Cushing or not, I think this team should finish 5-9. But it's hard to project above that. Fourth maybe if things go exceptionally well. The last time a team finished below 4 and won MLS Cup was 2010. In the last decade 8 Cup winners finished 3rd or higher. Just get in and make a run rarely happens.
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I cannot think of a non-American young player in the history of the league that has been good enough to earn a chance in Europe that hasn't taken it. Someday if MLS continues to grow it will be as appealing as Europe but we are nowhere close to that. If any of these guys end up as MLS lifers its because they didn't develop and we wildly overpaid for them. 18-year-olds that don't project to be good enough to get a decent offer in Europe someday are not worth anywhere near $8M.
In Jovan's first interview he said he wants MLS to be a launch point for his career. He's already looking for the next move, and there's no reason he shouldn't.
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