From July 25, 2025 (when Nico debuted) until the end of last season, we were 7-4-0, 21 pts, 3rd in the East and 4th in MLS.
We were not a middling to good team once we had Nico FM in the fold. We were one of the best teams in the league. We are running back that team while giving Nico (and our other midseason additions) a full preseason to really acclimate. If either Parks or Perea are healthy near the start of the season, we are one of the best teams in MLS and are primed for a deep run this season.
You and I went through this before, and you and I disagree, which is fine.
- I would not count the Dallas game as his because he played 29 minutes after we had a 3-1 lead
- I think relying solely on W-L-D in 10-11 games is a mistake because streaks, more below
- NYC had just a +1 GD in the 10 games he played in full
- After he arrived the team took fewer shots, for lower xG, while allowing both more goals and more xGA per game.
It's great that they won more points than any similar number of games in the season but look at anything beyond PPG and it seems a bit shaky.
Still, it was a very solid 10 or 11 game run.
In 2015 the worst NYCFC team ever somehow managed an 8-game streak for 16 points and 2.00 PPG.
2016 saw a terrible 7 points in 8 games start followed by an amazing 23 points in 11 games and ended with a so-so 24 points in 15 games.
In 2018 NYCFC earned 2.22 PPG over the first 9 games and 1.44 over the final 25.
Ronny had so many up and down streaks from 2020 through the start of 2022: 3 points in 6 games, 23 in 10 games, 15 in 15 games and 22 in 8 games.
The 2024 team I consider very similar to the current roster managed 24 points in 9 games at one point.
Streaks happen. You're never as bad as you look in your worst streak and never as good as you seem in your best. Combining that with a post hoc argument crediting Nico is not enough to convince me. Pending Martinez we're still a team whose scoring depth falls off a cliff after Sylla, Wolf and Nico. As I wrote earlier, this changes if Jones, Ojeda, Talles or Reid blossom. Maybe some of them will. I hope they do. I really hope Malachi comes back and kills it. But until they show me that or the team adds yet more pieces I don't see this as a top tier MLS team.
We have already effectively replaced Fernandez on the pitch if not on the roster. With Talles. And IMHO that is an upgrade.
I know everyone is tired of me citing Julian's G+A contributions but in Talles's best season (2022) he had 0.52 G+A/90 and last year Julian had 0.51/90. Talles certainly has more skills, but he fiddles around way too much and got completely stuck inside his own head in 2023, which together IMO at least partly offsets his superior soccer sense over Julian. Talles did contribute his 0.51 over about twice as many minutes which is definitely a plus on his side. He's an upgrade, but IMO not a big one who seriously moves the points needle unless he finally breaks out. Which I guess he could. Putting on my rosy outlook hat I think he could work
extremely well with Sylla's style of play.
But mostly I'm in Show Me mode.