2026 Roster and Transfer Discussion Thread

Since signing messi and then his friends, miami have added 3 trophies and a plate to their silverware cabinet.

with martins dropping out of DP status and moving magno on, this club will need to dream big if they want to win MLS cup. Yes, spending doesn't guarantee MLS cup or winning even. But with CFG resources, hopefully a good SD, and Jansen picking players he wants, there's no reason why we can't be an automatic contender in 2026 and 100000% in 2027.
Magno will be back with us at least for pre-season. His loan expires 12/31/25 and his contract is through 2027. Corinthians has no intent on keeping him they are broke.
 
Magno will be back with us at least for pre-season. His loan expires 12/31/25 and his contract is through 2027. Corinthians has no intent on keeping him they are broke.

I would imagine Talles will be sent on another loan or sold. I don't think he ever steps on the field for us again.

If we have replacements lined up, I am fully on board with getting rid of Ojeda and Fernandez. But with the new sporting director coming on board on January 1, the odds of finding quick replacements this window seem to be remote. We're better with them than we are without them and no other replacements. I think the team has greater fish to fry (Haak, Perea, and a replacement for Alonso) than trying to replace Ojeda and Fernandez this window.

They both are still 21 -- we forget how young they are.
 
The table below is sorted by the goals added metric for all NYC players with a minimum of 979 minutes played (Chosen so Nico would be in the data). This stat is not kind to many of our attacking players, likely because of how few goals the team scores in general. For reference, the 3 players in the lead for the goals added stat are: Messi (15.85), Bouanga (8.14), and Surridge (7.11).

ASA defaults to showing G+ on a "Above Average" scale. Meaning if the average player at your position adds 5 goals by shooting and you add 6, you're listed at +1, and if you add 4 you're listed at -1. That's very useful, but I often really prefer to see the raw numbers. Here is your same table with the raw data:
Screenshot 2025-12-08 at 6.08.05 AM.png

Maxi is a +4.4 Raw but -3 on the Above Average scale because an average attacking mid with his minutes would add about 7.5 goals over a year.
 
ASA defaults to showing G+ on a "Above Average" scale. Meaning if the average player at your position adds 5 goals by shooting and you add 6, you're listed at +1, and if you add 4 you're listed at -1. That's very useful, but I often really prefer to see the raw numbers. Here is your same table with the raw data:
View attachment 14290

Maxi is a +4.4 Raw but -3 on the Above Average scale because an average attacking mid with his minutes would add about 7.5 goals over a year.
Either way pretty damning for Maxi. I think he added other value this year as an on field coach guiding the press and directing other players on offense too. But at some point you have to produce what your position is there to produce. (As you have argued so clearly in the case of Ojeda's improvements not being enough.)
 
Either way pretty damning for Maxi. I think he added other value this year as an on field coach guiding the press and directing other players on offense too. But at some point you have to produce what your position is there to produce. (As you have argued so clearly in the case of Ojeda's improvements not being enough.)
Maxi can still make a special pass that opens up a possibility, sometimes a line breaker and sometimes in the final third. We’ll miss that when he’s gone but he’s really regressed in everything else.
 
ASA defaults to showing G+ on a "Above Average" scale. Meaning if the average player at your position adds 5 goals by shooting and you add 6, you're listed at +1, and if you add 4 you're listed at -1. That's very useful, but I often really prefer to see the raw numbers. Here is your same table with the raw data:
View attachment 14290

Maxi is a +4.4 Raw but -3 on the Above Average scale because an average attacking mid with his minutes would add about 7.5 goals over a year.

Yeah, that’s a good point to clarify. It’s an interesting stat, very similar to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) in basketball.

The averages comparison reveals some telling details. All of our midfielders except Parks are below average for their position in the interrupting category, which lines up with what people often note in game chats: teams are cutting through our midfield far too easily. We clearly lack a true defensive midfielder and rely heavily on the backline to clean things up. The data looks especially concerning for O’Neill, who is negative across every category.

The other notable stat is “Receiving,” where Alonso, Perea and Parks are the only players on the team above average compared to their positional peers. That’s a major red flag. How are those three players the only ones getting into dangerous positions? Are others finding space but not getting service? Or is this mainly a tactical issue? For reference, here’s ASA’s explanation of the receiving stat: (https://www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2020/5/4/goals-added-deep-dive-methodology)

Often forwards receive the ball in zones worth an expected 10% or 20% of a goal. When they score in such cases, it is tempting to give them all the remaining credit up to 100% (technically 99% once you’ve subtracted the 1% expected goals the opposing team has upon kickoff). On average, shooters would break even by design—that is shooting g+ would average 0.00—but the g+ leaderboards would be dominated by those players who finished well in a given year. Considering finishing outcomes regress heavily toward league average year-over-year, it seems like it would undermine the whole metric if the leaderboard were constructed on the whims of chance.

So here’s what we do. The shooter is credited with the expected goal value of the shot, regardless of outcome, and debited the expected possession value before the shot—the opportunity cost of taking the shot in the first place. On average, this difference is about 0, as noted above. That's right, unlike in the solely xG models that the soccer analytics movement has relied on for years, shooting has almost no net value. Then we try to tease out what finishing skill a player may have by crediting players who get good shots on target (or off the post). Such shots produce significantly greater expected goals from secondary opportunities (rebounds and corners). This shot placement credit comes from our new xRebound model.

The average shot that misses the goal and the posts altogether is worth -0.005 value by our method, while the average shot on target is worth +0.015. If you’re worried that forwards aren’t getting enough credit, recall Tiotal Football’s word art above. Forwards are getting a lot of credit for being available and receiving the ball (or winning headers) in dangerous places in front of goal. To some extent, we are imposing our belief on the methodology that the hard work is done in getting the ball in dangerous locations, and that the shot is a formality. Indeed, here is the 2019 leaderboard for g+ on pass receipts, through our aforementioned pass receiving allocation method. Maybe you’ve heard of some of these guys.

Reference table from the article with a surprising Tinnerholm appearance:

Screenshot 2025-12-08 at 11.32.46 AM.png
 
Yeah, that’s a good point to clarify. It’s an interesting stat, very similar to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) in basketball.
FWIW and for those who don't follow this stuff closely, ASA also offers "Above Replacement" data for G+. Replacement level is a bar lower than average. Replacement literally means to measure the level of play from someone you can grab mid-season for little or even no cost: a minor or development league call-up, a waiver claim, an inactive veteran on a minimum contract, etc.

Another note: G+ is tethered indirectly, not directly, to results. Like xG, it is designed to measure if you made that pass 100 times, how many goals would your team score. So if you take possession from the other team and make a 2 line pass, your g+ will go up for interrupting and passing the same regardless of how your team did on the rest of that individual possession.
 
For a change I want to write something nice or at least confused about Ojeda.

I looked at his G+ for just the last 10 games of the season and it does show real improvement. These numbers are per 96 minutes so you can compare different amounts of games and time. First 24 games on top, then last 10, both on the "Above Average" baseline:
Screenshot 2025-12-09 at 6.31.02 AM.pngScreenshot 2025-12-09 at 6.31.48 AM.png
Nice positive swings with the largest in dribbling +0.06, interrupting +0.04, and passing +0.05. Eye test and metrics nicely agree.
But then I went back to 2024:
Screenshot 2025-12-09 at 6.38.16 AM.png
What the hell happened to him between 2025 and the first 2/3 of 2025? He went down by varied amounts in dribbling, interrupting, passing, receiving, and shooting. The latter two combined for a 0.12 drop per 96 minutes over the first 70% of 2025 before he turned it around.

Then I spent more time on his shooting falloff. We know he had 3 goals in 2024, and none since. Here are his xG and xPlace numbers for the 2 years. xPlace measures the difference between pre-shot and post-shot xG. Shoot hard to upper 90 you have positive xPlace. Miss the goal and you have negative.

2024 xG 3.33 xPlace +1.39 on 22 shots in 1103 minutes.
2025 xG 1.17 xPlace -0.89 on 19 shots in 1513 minutes.

I also love the story told by the FotMob shot maps for just his on target shots. I only wish it had a way to show when a shot was right at the keeper. But even still:
Screenshot 2025-12-08 at 4.59.54 PM.pngScreenshot 2025-12-09 at 6.55.52 AM.png
Seriously WTF happened with Augustin between 2024 when he could shoot serviceably and 2025 when his shooting was terrible? Can we get him back to at least 2024 levels of shooting competence? He didn't even put a shot on target for his first 800 minutes in 2025.

He can be a useful player if he and the coaching staff fix that. I don't think it's random. Good luck is when you hit weakly to the keeper and he flubs it; bad luck is when you hit it sharp and far side upper 90 and the keeper somehow leaps and swats it away. When you cannot even hit the goal for 20 games, and then when you do you always shoot directly at the keeper, IMO that's mostly on you. He also went from 1.80 shots per 90 in 2024 to 1.13 in 2025.
So is this fixable? It seems like it should be fixable.
 
If we want to make a splash ahead of opening the stadium, we should go get Jack Harrison. He has been struggling in the Premier League the past couple of seasons and is operating off the bench for Leeds.

He scored 21 goals his first three seasons, but only 4 the last two. He has yet to score this season with only 268 minutes.

He just turned 29, so he’s got a few years left, and he should be able to operate at a high level for MLS. Plus, the fans love him. He’d help put butts in seats.
 
If we want to make a splash ahead of opening the stadium, we should go get Jack Harrison. He has been struggling in the Premier League the past couple of seasons and is operating off the bench for Leeds.

He scored 21 goals his first three seasons, but only 4 the last two. He has yet to score this season with only 268 minutes.

He just turned 29, so he’s got a few years left, and he should be able to operate at a high level for MLS. Plus, the fans love him. He’d help put butts in seats.

Harrison is a perfect fit for Pascal’s style of play. In MLS he would be an elite attacking winger, but he is also fully willing to track back and do the dirty work.

In the few interviews Lee gave last season, he consistently emphasized the importance of not blocking opportunities for young players. As a result, our wing depth was intentionally kept thin to force playing time for Ojeda and Fernandez. The question now is whether that mandate continues into this season, or if CFG will allow the new sporting director to move forward with moves that reduce playing time for their young, high-cost investments.

Both Cushing and Pascal have shown they will play almost anyone over Ojeda and Fernández. Cushing used Perea on the wing, and Pascal played Nico out of position there while logging heavy minutes for Maxi, all to avoid starting them. The moment the team is allowed to add one or two competent attackers, Ojeda and Fernández will barely see the field, especially once Martinez returns. CFG knows this, and so far, they have blocked it. This offseason will be very telling if that approach is starting to change.
 
For a change I want to write something nice or at least confused about Ojeda.

I looked at his G+ for just the last 10 games of the season and it does show real improvement. These numbers are per 96 minutes so you can compare different amounts of games and time. First 24 games on top, then last 10, both on the "Above Average" baseline:
View attachment 14294View attachment 14295
Nice positive swings with the largest in dribbling +0.06, interrupting +0.04, and passing +0.05. Eye test and metrics nicely agree.
But then I went back to 2024:
View attachment 14296
What the hell happened to him between 2025 and the first 2/3 of 2025? He went down by varied amounts in dribbling, interrupting, passing, receiving, and shooting. The latter two combined for a 0.12 drop per 96 minutes over the first 70% of 2025 before he turned it around.

Then I spent more time on his shooting falloff. We know he had 3 goals in 2024, and none since. Here are his xG and xPlace numbers for the 2 years. xPlace measures the difference between pre-shot and post-shot xG. Shoot hard to upper 90 you have positive xPlace. Miss the goal and you have negative.

2024 xG 3.33 xPlace +1.39 on 22 shots in 1103 minutes.
2025 xG 1.17 xPlace -0.89 on 19 shots in 1513 minutes.

I also love the story told by the FotMob shot maps for just his on target shots. I only wish it had a way to show when a shot was right at the keeper. But even still:
View attachment 14297View attachment 14299
Seriously WTF happened with Augustin between 2024 when he could shoot serviceably and 2025 when his shooting was terrible? Can we get him back to at least 2024 levels of shooting competence? He didn't even put a shot on target for his first 800 minutes in 2025.

He can be a useful player if he and the coaching staff fix that. I don't think it's random. Good luck is when you hit weakly to the keeper and he flubs it; bad luck is when you hit it sharp and far side upper 90 and the keeper somehow leaps and swats it away. When you cannot even hit the goal for 20 games, and then when you do you always shoot directly at the keeper, IMO that's mostly on you. He also went from 1.80 shots per 90 in 2024 to 1.13 in 2025.
So is this fixable? It seems like it should be fixable.
Dunno about the shooting issue but pretty sure the other upswing had a lot to do with having Nico buzz around in his vicinity providing him better options than were previously available. Also, at one point this year he became noticeably bolder taking taking on opposing Fullbacks and getting in crosses instead of cutting inside himself and hitting a wall.
 
The article about NYCFC II roster moves has me revisiting a conversation we had a while back about using senior roster spots on homegrown players. Why does the club keep signing young homegrowns who are still years away from contributing, like Jacob Arroyave, Zidane Yáñez, and previously Carrizo, directly to first-team contracts?

This season in particular, the club ran into issues when it needed to add Reid but temporarily did not have a roster spot available. I understand the desire to get players under contract early to avoid another Reyna situation, but why not sign them to NYCFC II deals and wait to promote them to the senior team when they are actually ready to play?

Why sacrifice roster flexibility by placing them on the first team so early? What am I missing?


MLS 2025 key Rules
  1. A Major League Soccer club's active roster is comprised of up to 30 players
  2. Up to 20 players, occupying roster slots 1-20, count against the club's 2025 Salary Budget of $5,950,000
  3. The salaries of players on the Supplemental Roster (slots 21-31) do not count toward a club's Salary Budget.
  4. Slots 21-24 may be filled with (i) Senior Minimum Salary Players ($104,000), which may include Homegrown Players, (ii) Generation adidas Players, (iii) any specifically designated players eligible for the MLS SuperDraft; or (iv) Homegrown Players earning more than the Senior Minimum Salary, subject to the Homegrown Player Subsidy.
  5. Slots 25-30 may be filled with (i) players earning the Reserve Minimum Salary ($80,622), which may include Homegrown Players, (ii) Homegrown Players earning more than the Reserve Minimum Salary subject to the Homegrown Player Subsidy, or (iii) Generation adidas Players (earning the Reserve Minimum Salary).

Next Pro
  1. An MLS NEXT Pro club's active roster is comprised of up to 35 players
  2. There is no salary cap in MLS NEXT Pro, and there are no salary limits on player compensation

Sources:
 
Seriously WTF happened with Augustin between 2024 when he could shoot serviceably and 2025 when his shooting was terrible?
Change of coaches. Change of system. Change of usage patterns. Adaptation. Game state. And on and on. They key was, he got better as the year went on. Something went click at the tail end of the year, which is what you hope for in young players.
Harrison is a perfect fit for Pascal’s style of play. In MLS he would be an elite attacking winger, but he is also fully willing to track back and do the dirty work.
He'd be dynamite. A perfect complement to Nico. If going outside CFG to snag Dunivant means increased independence in our roster building (and please dear Lord let that be the case), this move would show it.
Also, at one point this year he became noticeably bolder taking on opposing Fullbacks and getting in crosses instead of cutting inside himself and hitting a wall.
This was the change in Agu. And I'm there for it. [Full disclosure: I'm a pace addict, and love nothing more than a winger who can take on a fullback, beat them to the by-line and execute the cutback pass. Nothing works better to pull a defense out of shape. Lethal disruption.]
 
The article about NYCFC II roster moves has me revisiting a conversation we had a while back about using senior roster spots on homegrown players. Why does the club keep signing young homegrowns who are still years away from contributing, like Jacob Arroyave, Zidane Yáñez, and previously Carrizo, directly to first-team contracts?

This season in particular, the club ran into issues when it needed to add Reid but temporarily did not have a roster spot available. I understand the desire to get players under contract early to avoid another Reyna situation, but why not sign them to NYCFC II deals and wait to promote them to the senior team when they are actually ready to play?

Why sacrifice roster flexibility by placing them on the first team so early? What am I missing?


MLS 2025 key Rules
  1. A Major League Soccer club's active roster is comprised of up to 30 players
  2. Up to 20 players, occupying roster slots 1-20, count against the club's 2025 Salary Budget of $5,950,000
  3. The salaries of players on the Supplemental Roster (slots 21-31) do not count toward a club's Salary Budget.
  4. Slots 21-24 may be filled with (i) Senior Minimum Salary Players ($104,000), which may include Homegrown Players, (ii) Generation adidas Players, (iii) any specifically designated players eligible for the MLS SuperDraft; or (iv) Homegrown Players earning more than the Senior Minimum Salary, subject to the Homegrown Player Subsidy.
  5. Slots 25-30 may be filled with (i) players earning the Reserve Minimum Salary ($80,622), which may include Homegrown Players, (ii) Homegrown Players earning more than the Reserve Minimum Salary subject to the Homegrown Player Subsidy, or (iii) Generation adidas Players (earning the Reserve Minimum Salary).

Next Pro
  1. An MLS NEXT Pro club's active roster is comprised of up to 35 players
  2. There is no salary cap in MLS NEXT Pro, and there are no salary limits on player compensation

Sources:

my guess is they sign them to first team contracts so then any euro team cant take them on a free or very low fee. This way as a "first team player" a higher fee will have to be paid.
 
Change of coaches. Change of system. Change of usage patterns. Adaptation. Game state. And on and on. They key was, he got better as the year went on. Something went click at the tail end of the year, which is what you hope for in young players.
OK, but, I've seen a lot of new coaches and adjustments and never saw it cause someone unable to put a shot on net for 800 minutes never put one on net with power and placement in an entire season.

The improvement at the end of the season is not mysterious at all. The utter collapse at the start is what I don't get. And the shooting quality didn't really recover to 2024 levels even as everything else did or even exceeded.

The only thing I can remotely analogize to is sometimes hitters, quarterbacks and golfers completely retool their swing or delivery, and they go though a period where they can look pretty terrible before showing improvement. But it's not something I've seen in soccer, nor did we hear any rumors that Ojeda was doing anything like this in 2025. And it should not take a full year. At season end, he was still unable to shoot with power and placement. It's so bad I would wonder if he had some sort of muscle or nerve disease, except his dribbling and running are excellent.
 
OK, but, I've seen a lot of new coaches and adjustments and never saw it cause someone unable to put a shot on net for 800 minutes never put one on net with power and placement in an entire season.

The improvement at the end of the season is not mysterious at all. The utter collapse at the start is what I don't get. And the shooting quality didn't really recover to 2024 levels even as everything else did or even exceeded.

The only thing I can remotely analogize to is sometimes hitters, quarterbacks and golfers completely retool their swing or delivery, and they go though a period where they can look pretty terrible before showing improvement. But it's not something I've seen in soccer, nor did we hear any rumors that Ojeda was doing anything like this in 2025. And it should not take a full year. At season end, he was still unable to shoot with power and placement. It's so bad I would wonder if he had some sort of muscle or nerve disease, except his dribbling and running are excellent.

This is complete speculation, but Ojeda was benched early in the season after being late, and before that, I don’t remember his defensive effort standing out much. When Pascal started giving him minutes again, there was a noticeable change in his willingness to track back and defend. My guess is Pascal made it clear that the only way back into the lineup was by committing fully on both sides of the ball. Interestingly, that’s also when his attacking aggression really picked up.

The drop-off in his finishing might be a fitness issue. He’s spent his career as a pure attacking winger, and now he’s being asked to sprint end-to-end and defend consistently. With that increased workload, it’s possible his legs are gone by the time he gets his chances, and he hasn’t fully adjusted yet. Still speculation, of course, but he is often the first attacker subbed off. If this is the issue, it’s at least a solvable one as his conditioning improves and he gains strength with age.
 


@Corinthians
will not exercise the purchase of Talles Magno after the end of the loan valid until the end of 2025. Thus, the attacker will return to New York City and will not continue with the club in 2026.The information was disclosed by Premiere during the broadcast of Corinthians x Juventude.


I don't have a problem with this. Let's see what Pascal can do.
 
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