COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

[Gotham Gator]

One additional thing that people may find interesting. COVID-19 can present as a gastrointestinal disease - more commonly in children, but also for adults. My wife’s colleague had an odd stomach bug that persisted for a few days. Being a physician, she knew that could be COVID, so she got tested and was positive. Next, she suffered briefly from anosmia (lack of smell). Since, she’s had a full recovery.

 

[413Blue]

Seriously, all of you attacking my statement need a refresher on reading comprehension.

The rates are not believable for either. That’s binary.

Nowhere do I ever allude to the rates being the same. Never.

That’s just a Fcking lack of reading comprehension because a few of you have nothing else to complain about now that it’s apparent the league isn’t restarting and all of the handwringing about possible scenarios was a waste of time.

But yes, continue to ask if I was serious.

There are two key rates that are important here

1.) Number of overall cases. This we know- and no state is trying to hide-- are a fraction of the actual number of infections, asymptomatic or otherwise. We dont have the tests to catch em all yet, and probably wont know the full scale of this disease for years until antibody testing can be done on everyone.

2.) The number of deaths. These numbers are much closer to reality. Obviously they are not 100% accurate. We are missing some, but again, we must be identifying the vast majority of cases because virtually no anomalies appear to be showing in general fatality statistics, which include a vast enough sample and historical consistency to compare to.


Now if you were making the point that the death statistics are less than the total, that's one thing. But if you are asserting that the numbers we have are worthless and manipulated like the Chinese numbers, then that is overboard. Our statistics are properly done. Nobody is not being tested to keep the statistics down. No proven cases are being withheld simply to keep the numbers low.


I then find it interesting to see you come back at people for challenging your statement. Keep in my mind you are the person who has a history of responding to other peoples posts, ones that were nonconfrontational but that you simply disagree with, the opening line "Bullshit." or other aggressive retorts. But go ahead and challenge reading comprehension to defend your statement.

 

[mgarbowski]

The good Dr. G has read reports from epidemiologists saying that the virus had to be in the NYC area and circulating by mid-to-late January at the latest for the pandemic to have spread the way it has.

A week ago, a report on a genetic analysis of the virus said it was circulating in NY by mid-February.

In Washington state, the flu study went back and tested random nasal swabs that it had collected and found COVID-positive samples from asymptomatic people well before the first official positive test.

While I agree with your general premise that more people suspect they had it than could have had it during those periods, many people really did. There is a substantial non-zero chance that you were one of them, and a substantial, non-zero chance that someone in your household contracted it too and was asymptomatic.

Non-zero, yes. Absolutely. Including me. I could have said that. I think we are basically in agreement, but for me the emphasis has to be those early numbers were much lower than these popular theories espouse.

Again, hospitalizations and deaths did not increase in the USA by any appreciable amount until late March. So the theory would be, it scared the CCP so much that in December and January the CCP (1) locked people in their homes (literally), (2) closed off entire cities by force, (3) made multiple scientists disappear, (4) built multiple pop-up hospitals, (5) sprayed scary, unidentified something all over empty streets in said closed off cities, (6) forcibly moved their slave Muslim population from internment camps to work the factories because the previous workers were dead, and (7) expelled the foreign press. Then the same virus came to the USA, and lots of people had it starting in January, but nobody noticed anything untoward except for one Seattle nursing home until mid-March, when suddenly it caused as much scary shit as it did in China. Somehow the rate of cases in the USA for the first 6 weeks that killed or required serious medical interventions was almost zero even though documented cases before and after that period all over the world (including in the US afterwards) were much more serious.

It cannot be true. Not in meaningful numbers. It probably came to the USA no later than January, and New York had it by the Chinese lunar New Year. That's what this NY Times infographic report shows. But not in the numbers that these theories are discussing.

 

[Keith Putnam]

Here's the opinion of a data scientist on how to interpret the numbers we're seeing, using the testing done in Iceland as a normalization control for the scattershot data coming out of everywhere else.

COVID-19 from a data scientist’s perspective

The reported numbers about COVID-19 seems unreasonably diverse and inconclusive. The main reason for it is that the asymptomatic cases are…

medium.com

 

[Ulrich]

There are two key rates that are important here

1.) Number of overall cases. This we know- and no state is trying to hide-- are a fraction of the actual number of infections, asymptomatic or otherwise. We dont have the tests to catch em all yet, and probably wont know the full scale of this disease for years until antibody testing can be done on everyone.

2.) The number of deaths. These numbers are much closer to reality. Obviously they are not 100% accurate. We are missing some, but again, we must be identifying the vast majority of cases because virtually no anomalies appear to be showing in general fatality statistics, which include a vast enough sample and historical consistency to compare to.


Now if you were making the point that the death statistics are less than the total, that's one thing. But if you are asserting that the numbers we have are worthless and manipulated like the Chinese numbers, then that is overboard. Our statistics are properly done. Nobody is not being tested to keep the statistics down. No proven cases are being withheld simply to keep the numbers low.


I then find it interesting to see you come back at people for challenging your statement. Keep in my mind you are the person who has a history of responding to other peoples posts, ones that were nonconfrontational but that you simply disagree with, the opening line "Bullshit." or other aggressive retorts. But go ahead and challenge reading comprehension to defend your statement.

My point was that neither are believable. That was it.

You, and others, ran with it and started questioning how that’s possible and sticking numbers in, while even admitting he US numbers are higher than reported because they’re higher everywhere.

That’s where the reading comprehension comes in. So don’t clutch your pearls that you can’t believe I’m taking offense, when all I did was say neither are believable and you’re trying to make me defend number I didn’t quote.

 

[canchon]

The good Dr. G has read reports from epidemiologists saying that the virus had to be in the NYC area and circulating by mid-to-late January at the latest for the pandemic to have spread the way it has.

A week ago, a report on a genetic analysis of the virus said it was circulating in NY by mid-February.

In Washington state, the flu study went back and tested random nasal swabs that it had collected and found COVID-positive samples from asymptomatic people well before the first official positive test.

Chalk one up for science.

if we like anecdotal stories better, I know someone in NY that for sure has COVID (been in contact with covid carriers, shows covid specific symptoms such as lack of taste) but still even now couldn’t get tested. For sure both in NY and in other states there are people who have it who have not been tested - both with mild symptoms and also dying from it.

 

[canchon]

California Gov. Gavin Newsom sees the possibility of staggering school schedules to avoid grouping too many students into a room at once, while restaurants and other businesses could check customers’ temperatures at the door. Large gatherings for sports events or concerns will have to wait until next year, or whenever a vaccine is available, he said.

California governor says no large gatherings until next year (or a vaccine - which isn’t coming until next year). Chalk it up folks, if there is any season this year it will be behind closed doors.

 

[Kjbert]

Gotham Gator when do you think the first person in the area contracted it?

 

[Shwafta]

A family friend's father who was dealing with MS for close on 9 years passed yesterday from coronavirus.
On a brighter note, my father is almost finished with it.

 

[Ulrich]

A family friend's father who was dealing with MS for close on 9 years passed yesterday from coronavirus.
On a brighter note, my father is almost finished with it.

Really glad to hear you dad is getting through it!!!

 

[adam]

A family friend's father who was dealing with MS for close on 9 years passed yesterday from coronavirus.
On a brighter note, my father is almost finished with it.

i just tested negative with antibodies. Symptoms lasted over 3 weeks! Tell your dad to hang in there, glad he’s almost through!

 

[Shwafta]

i just tested negative with antibodies. Symptoms lasted over 3 weeks! Tell your dad to hang in there, glad he’s almost through!

He tested positive just a few days ago, so hopefully he'll be there too! Glad to hear you're better too.
Question is, how long should we wait before going over to his house.

 

[adam]

He tested positive just a few days ago, so hopefully he'll be there too! Glad to hear you're better too.
Question is, how long should we wait before going over to his house.

idk how long it took me to be negative bc i only took the test when all my symptoms were gone besides chest pain (which turned out to be a chest infection resulting from corona, but treatable with antibiotics now that I’m clear). And that was about 3 weeks after my symptoms started. Also, symptoms seemed to change up every few days. Sweats and tired became fever and headaches. Then stomach pains and sweats again... but everyone’s immune system is different and I’m only 41. I also never lost smell like a lot of people did. I also never had a cough, but my oxygen levels dropped to low 90s towards the end, probably a result of that chest infection.

 

[Shwafta]

idk how long it took me to be negative bc i only took the test when all my symptoms were gone besides chest pain (which turned out to be a chest infection resulting from corona, but treatable with antibiotics now that I’m clear). And that was about 3 weeks after my symptoms started. Also, symptoms seemed to change up every few days. Sweats and tired became fever and headaches. Then stomach pains and sweats again... but everyone’s immune system is different and I’m only 41. I also never lost smell like a lot of people did. I also never had a cough, but my oxygen levels dropped to low 90s towards the end, probably a result of that chest infection.

Should have specified, he tested positive still. He took the original test about two weeks before that, so this is going on 5 weeks that he's still positive, but he doesn't feel the symptoms much other than occasional breathlessness.

 

[ZYanksRule]

i just tested negative with antibodies. Symptoms lasted over 3 weeks! Tell your dad to hang in there, glad he’s almost through!

Glad to hear you're feeling better.

 

[adam]

Should have specified, he tested positive still. He took the original test about two weeks before that, so this is going on 5 weeks that he's still positive, but he doesn't feel the symptoms much other than occasional breathlessness.

like i said. Everyone’s immune system is different. And this is a strange disease. Refuah Shlaima!

 

[21Architect]

now that it’s apparent the league isn’t restarting and all of the handwringing about possible scenarios was a waste of time

More stuff we don’t agree on.

I think it’s more likely than not that MLB and MLS will play before August 1st.

 

[Ulrich]

More stuff we don’t agree on.

I think it’s more likely than not that MLB and MLS will play before August 1st.

Just because a league starts back doesn’t mean it should nor does it guarantee safety for the individuals partaking. The clowns in charge of the league’s making these decisions aren’t doing so with the best intentions of the people that would be exposed.

So yeah, you may be right that they’ll start by Aug 1st, and we’ll likely see contagion in their ranks.

Starting sports back too early is like the Roman Games at the Colosseum - it’s purely used to convey a false sense of normalcy and pacify the masses during times of failure and emergency.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Non-zero, yes. Absolutely. Including me. I could have said that. I think we are basically in agreement, but for me the emphasis has to be those early numbers were much lower than these popular theories espouse.

Again, hospitalizations and deaths did not increase in the USA by any appreciable amount until late March. So the theory would be, it scared the CCP so much that in December and January the CCP (1) locked people in their homes (literally), (2) closed off entire cities by force, (3) made multiple scientists disappear, (4) built multiple pop-up hospitals, (5) sprayed scary, unidentified something all over empty streets in said closed off cities, (6) forcibly moved their slave Muslim population from internment camps to work the factories because the previous workers were dead, and (7) expelled the foreign press. Then the same virus came to the USA, and lots of people had it starting in January, but nobody noticed anything untoward except for one Seattle nursing home until mid-March, when suddenly it caused as much scary shit as it did in China. Somehow the rate of cases in the USA for the first 6 weeks that killed or required serious medical interventions was almost zero even though documented cases before and after that period all over the world (including in the US afterwards) were much more serious.

It cannot be true. Not in meaningful numbers. It probably came to the USA no later than January, and New York had it by the Chinese lunar New Year. That's what this NY Times infographic report shows. But not in the numbers that these theories are discussing.

A few quick points.

First, the virus started circulating in Wuhan at least as early as November. China did not ban travel from Wuhan until January 23, and did not close factories there until mid-February. So, it took the Chinese over two months to stop travel and over 3 months to shut things down (and 0 months, as usual, to lie, obfuscate and subjugate their own population, as you point out).

Second, the case that kicked everything off in NY State involved a New Rochelle man who had been sick for a month and hospitalized for four days before his positive test came back on March 2. That means he had been sick since early February and may even have contracted the disease as far back as late January - through community spread from someone moving around New York.

Third, if you look at the progression of the disease in New York state as opposed to other areas, the numbers rose to much higher levels much more quickly in New York than they did elsewhere. Now, some of that is probably because of things like population density and high reliance on public transit leading to a faster spread. But, much of it is also that NY just had higher numbers in early March that weren't showing up in any data because nobody was being tested.

I think it is very possible that the virus was much more widespread than anyone recognized in the weeks prior to its discovery in any particular area. So, why wouldn't this show up in hospitalizations? For one thing, it could easily have been mistaken for seasonal flu - and in the numbers you get early in the outbreak, that's certainly plausible. For another, most people don't actually get very sick from this, so it can spread for a while before hitting enough vulnerable people that the system takes notice.

Right now, we don't really know how much of a difference that second point makes, but it's the key question. It's the same as asking how many undiagnosed, benign cases have there been? 5x, 10x, 20x the current confirmed number? Those are the figures that get kicked around, and they make a huge difference in assessing how deadly the virus is, the degree of community spread and herd immunity, and ultimately how frightened and cautious we should all be.

 

[Ulrich]

A few quick points.

First, the virus started circulating in Wuhan at least as early as November. China did not ban travel from Wuhan until January 23, and did not close factories there until mid-February. So, it took the Chinese over two months to stop travel and over 3 months to shut things down (and 0 months, as usual, to lie, obfuscate and subjugate their own population, as you point out).

Second, the case that kicked everything off in NY State involved a New Rochelle man who had been sick for a month and hospitalized for four days before his positive test came back on March 2. That means he had been sick since early February and may even have contracted the disease as far back as late January - through community spread from someone moving around New York.

Third, if you look at the progression of the disease in New York state as opposed to other areas, the numbers rose to much higher levels much more quickly in New York than they did elsewhere. Now, some of that is probably because of things like population density and high reliance on public transit leading to a faster spread. But, much of it is also that NY just had higher numbers in early March that weren't showing up in any data because nobody was being tested.

I think it is very possible that the virus was much more widespread than anyone recognized in the weeks prior to its discovery in any particular area. So, why wouldn't this show up in hospitalizations? For one thing, it could easily have been mistaken for seasonal flu - and in the numbers you get early in the outbreak, that's certainly plausible. For another, most people don't actually get very sick from this, so it can spread for a while before hitting enough vulnerable people that the system takes notice.

Right now, we don't really know how much of a difference that second point makes, but it's the key question. It's the same as asking how many undiagnosed, benign cases have there been? 5x, 10x, 20x the current confirmed number? Those are the figures that get kicked around, and they make a huge difference in assessing how deadly the virus is, the degree of community spread and herd immunity, and ultimately how frightened and cautious we should all be.

There was also a large increase in Pneumonia cases in the city early this year. That ain’t a coincidence and very likely misdiagnosis for something the doctors didn’t know, or have a method, to look for.

There were also supposedly 4000 travelers from Wuhan directly to NYC in January. You can bet more in December.