COVID-19 - Leagues Suspended

[Ulrich]

For context on how the modeling is off, there’s this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1250992259019018240

And this morning it was reported that the total deaths yesterday was 4591 which was about 2k above the previous day (the previous record). It’s disturbing to think that many are coding across the county in a single day, and probably not an outlier but the new base as other regions are starting to catch up to NY like NY caught up to Italy.

Reported U.S. coronavirus deaths reach record 4,591 in 24 hours — The Wall Street Journal

The number of reported deaths in the U.S. from the new coronavirus spiked to nearly double the prior record, as governors extended their lockdown orders.

apple.news

Meanwhile, there’s a push to reopen the country......

 

[Ulrich]

idk how long it took me to be negative bc i only took the test when all my symptoms were gone besides chest pain (which turned out to be a chest infection resulting from corona, but treatable with antibiotics now that I’m clear). And that was about 3 weeks after my symptoms started. Also, symptoms seemed to change up every few days. Sweats and tired became fever and headaches. Then stomach pains and sweats again... but everyone’s immune system is different and I’m only 41. I also never lost smell like a lot of people did. I also never had a cough, but my oxygen levels dropped to low 90s towards the end, probably a result of that chest infection.

Glad you’re feeling better!!! Didn’t realize you had been suffering. Sounds awful and definitely different than my sister’s symptoms.

Did you go to the Cup Match?

 

[adam]

Glad you’re feeling better!!! Didn’t realize you had been suffering. Sounds awful and definitely different than my sister’s symptoms.

Did you go to the Cup Match?

i did. But i didn’t have symptoms till well after. My GF works at Brooklyn Hospital (and didn’t go to cup match). She had symptoms first, must have given it to me. That hospital is a war zone.

 

[Ulrich]

i did. But i didn’t have symptoms till well after. My GF works at Brooklyn Hospital (and didn’t go to cup match). She had symptoms first, must have given it to me. That hospital is a war zone.

Ugh, cannot imagine her days/nights there - hope she’s handling things ok. A friend lives a few block from the hospital and says it’s non-stop sirens.

 

[21Architect]

Just because a league starts back doesn’t mean it should nor does it guarantee safety for the individuals partaking. The clowns in charge of the league’s making these decisions aren’t doing so with the best intentions of the people that would be exposed.

So yeah, you may be right that they’ll start by Aug 1st, and we’ll likely see contagion in their ranks.

Starting sports back too early is like the Roman Games at the Colosseum - it’s purely used to convey a false sense of normalcy and pacify the masses during times of failure and emergency.

Wait a second, your post says “all of the handwringing about possible scenarios was a waste of time”

Then I say that I think it’s more likely they play in 2020 than not play and then you go off into completely different territory.

If they play in 2020 all of the “handwringing” about possible scenarios was totally worth it (especially because we are all STUCK IN OUR FUCKING HOUSES) with not much else to do.

 

[LionNYC]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1251175537826906112

 

[Shwafta]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1251175537826906112

 

[Ulrich]

As a follow up to the other day, Florida is actively not releasing data on nursing homes, Veterans homes, and correctional facilities cases and deaths.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1251119069832478720

 

[Gotham Gator]

Right now, we don't really know how much of a difference that second point makes, but it's the key question. It's the same as asking how many undiagnosed, benign cases have there been? 5x, 10x, 20x the current confirmed number? Those are the figures that get kicked around, and they make a huge difference in assessing how deadly the virus is, the degree of community spread and herd immunity, and ultimately how frightened and cautious we should all be.

 

[mgarbowski]

View attachment 10736

Let's check these figures as applied to NYC.
NYC has reported 12,199 deaths (confirmed plus probable).
If the fatality rate is 0.12%, NYC has had 10.16 million people infected. 12,199/0.0012 = 10.16M.
The population of NYC is only 8.4 million.
So try 0.2%. Then the number of NYC infections is 6.099 million. That's 72% of city residents.

I don't think the proper range of infected people in NYC is between 72% and 121% of all city residents. This study either does not say what Zakaria reports, or does not translate from Santa Clara to NYC.

The 5x, 10x, and 20x numbers you suggest are possibly realistic.

 

[413Blue]

Let's check these figures as applied to NYC.
NYC has reported 12,199 deaths (confirmed plus probable).
If the fatality rate is 0.12%, NYC has had 10.16 million people infected. 12,199/0.0012 = 10.16M.
The population of NYC is only 8.4 million.
So try 0.2%. Then the number of NYC infections is 6.099 million. That's 72% of city residents.

I don't think the proper range of infected people in NYC is between 72% and 121% of all city residents. This study either does not say what Zakaria reports, or does not translate from Santa Clara to NYC.

The 5x, 10x, and 20x numbers you suggest are possibly realistic.

One thing I noticed from reading a summary about it is that their data most likely has some selection bias. They sought participants via Facebook who had to drive to them. I have a feeling they attracted a disproportionate ratio of people who were pretty confident they had been exposed therefore their positive rate is higher than the overall population.

Or virtually everyone in NYC had been exposed at this point or NYC had a more vulnerable population going into the end of winter.

Or perhaps, lots of people have built up immunity via multiple exposures through drinking water, packages, tiny amounts in HVAC etc. I'm not sure if they've found any evidence of people getting miniscule exposure-- an amount below what it would take for infection-- and building resistance, but my basic understanding of science is that it wouldn't be unprecedented.

 

[Kjbert]

Just a reminder that there’s no evidence you develop an immunity to this like you would chicken pox.

 

[Ulrich]

Wait a second, your post says “all of the handwringing about possible scenarios was a waste of time”

Then I say that I think it’s more likely they play in 2020 than not play and then you go off into completely different territory.

If they play in 2020 all of the “handwringing” about possible scenarios was totally worth it (especially because we are all STUCK IN OUR FUCKING HOUSES) with not much else to do.

It’s absolutely a waste of time if a single player or team/league employee gets sick because the league(s) restarted this year without a protocol to protect 100% of them. That’s just irresponsible.

And who gives a Fck if you’re stuck in your house all day - we all are and it’s a small price to pay to flatten the curve. There’s a lot to watch on tv that doesn’t involve putting players’ health at risk. But yes, you being entertained is worth their risk.

 

[Ulrich]

Left without commentary.......

https://twitter.com/x/status/1251275775627669512

 

[ZYanksRule]

Left without commentary.......

https://twitter.com/x/status/1251275775627669512

But guys, just remember. Trump has had an incredible response. 10 out of 10. No one could have done it better. In fact his response has been so good, and his job so completely over, he's now sitting on his couch tweeting at state governors.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Let's check these figures as applied to NYC.
NYC has reported 12,199 deaths (confirmed plus probable).
If the fatality rate is 0.12%, NYC has had 10.16 million people infected. 12,199/0.0012 = 10.16M.
The population of NYC is only 8.4 million.
So try 0.2%. Then the number of NYC infections is 6.099 million. That's 72% of city residents.

I don't think the proper range of infected people in NYC is between 72% and 121% of all city residents. This study either does not say what Zakaria reports, or does not translate from Santa Clara to NYC.

The 5x, 10x, and 20x numbers you suggest are possibly realistic.

I went and looked at the abstract of the study. They did blood tests for COVID antibodies on 3,330 people in Santa Clara, CA. About 50 were positive, which when run through the standard demographic adjustments as well as some involving the test itself projected to an infection range of 2.49-4.16%. That’s 50-85x the number of confirmed cases.

That implies that the confirmed cases in Santa Clara were 0.049% of the population. NYC‘s latest number of confirmed cases is 122,148, or 1.47% of the population. That puts COVID in NYC at about 30x the rate of COVID in Santa Clara.

So, I think Mark is right that there is a difference between the two, as demonstrated by those numbers. COVID has hit NYC a lot harder. NYC has probably also tested a higher portion of its population.

But, even if the real number in NYC is 20x, that means nearly 30% of New Yorkers have had it, which means the city has already built up a substantial amount of herd immunity. If that number were true, it would recommend an immediate easing of social distancing in NY.

But that’s a big “if”. We don’t know what a study like that would show in NYC. But I think it is pretty clear that we need one. They are doing a similar study in Miami and NIH is doing one (I don’t know where). There is also the initiative for MLB that’s nationwide.* But I don’t know of anything for NYC. That needs to change and was the point of Fareed Zakaria’s tweet.

* - A buddy of mine in Florida and his wife were part of this one as she does dental work for the Orioles. They were negative.

 

[Gotham Gator]

Another aside. The good Mrs. Dr. Gator will be getting an antibody test on Monday. The results take only a few minutes.

 

[adam]

Another aside. The good Mrs. Dr. Gator will be getting an antibody test on Monday. The results take only a few minutes.

the rapid test includes antibody testing. That how I know I have them.

 

[Ulrich]

I went and looked at the abstract of the study. They did blood tests for COVID antibodies on 3,330 people in Santa Clara, CA. About 50 were positive, which when run through the standard demographic adjustments as well as some involving the test itself projected to an infection range of 2.49-4.16%. That’s 50-85x the number of confirmed cases.

That implies that the confirmed cases in Santa Clara were 0.049% of the population. NYC‘s latest number of confirmed cases is 122,148, or 1.47% of the population. That puts COVID in NYC at about 30x the rate of COVID in Santa Clara.

So, I think Mark is right that there is a difference between the two, as demonstrated by those numbers. COVID has hit NYC a lot harder. NYC has probably also tested a higher portion of its population.

But, even if the real number in NYC is 20x, that means nearly 30% of New Yorkers have had it, which means the city has already built up a substantial amount of herd immunity. If that number were true, it would recommend an immediate easing of social distancing in NY.

But that’s a big “if”. We don’t know what a study like that would show in NYC. But I think it is pretty clear that we need one. They are doing a similar study in Miami and NIH is doing one (I don’t know where). There is also the initiative for MLB that’s nationwide.* But I don’t know of anything for NYC. That needs to change and was the point of Fareed Zakaria’s tweet.

* - A buddy of mine in Florida and his wife were part of this one as she does dental work for the Orioles. They were negative.

30% exposure isn’t close to herd immunity. 80%+ is considered herd immunity with 90% being the desired amount. A city need 4/5 or 9/10 people immune to cut the spread, especially for a virus so easily passed - this fcker makes up for its lower mortality rate with a higher rate of infection, the scatter-shot/deluge approach, so it’s still killing at a high number simply because it’s tested the waters on such a large swathe of society.

Where NYC is now, if 30% is the actual amount, is a dangerous area because of the false sense of security people have of guessing they’re ok but not actually knowing with so little testing taking place. Already, I see people disregarding social distancing because they’re wearing a mask. I saw four people in the local grocery store yesterday without masks on while everybody else was diligently wearing them - when accosted, they say they’re fine and I/others already have ours on so why worry.

 

[mgarbowski]

30% exposure isn’t close to herd immunity. 80%+ is considered herd immunity with 90% being the desired amount.

Depends on the disease and transmission and R0.
Measles absolutely requires above 90%. Smallpox and polio in the 80s. Mumps 70s to 80s. For Ebola, transmitted by bodily fluids, the threshold is low. This paper says as low as 42% to 63%. We just don't know where Covid-19 falls, but safer to assume it's high until there is solid evidence it might be lower. But other airborne droplet diseases tend to be in the 50-80something% range.