It is a certainty.
We have 3 points.
If Atlas wins Toronto has 0 points and we advance.
If they tie, regardless of the shootout, Toronto has at most 1 or 2 points and we advance.
If Toronto wins, everyone ends up with 3 points. We will be ahead of Atlas (at least) on GD because we are at +4, Atlas is now at +1, and if Atlas loses that can only go down so we advance.
Whether we finish 1st or 2nd in Group is open, but no matter what we cannot finish third.