MLS - July 17 - Columbus (Away)

[Shwafta]

If you take out our 5 goal game, an obvious aberration, where do we rank? Mid table in goals scored?

NYCFC leads the East in goals per game.

Our keepers have cost us points in -- very conservatively -- 4 games DC, ORL, CLB, CLB. One could make a case to add New England and Montreal to the list.

Yet there is a widespread belief that our problem is offense -- here, Twitter, Reddit. People are crazy. We have scored more goals than anyone in the East game to game. And you cannot rely on the 5 goals against Cincinnati any more to claim our total is inflated. DC has a 7-goal game. Nashville and Orlando both have 5 goal games. Montreal has a 5 and a 4, and Cincinnati has a 4. Big number games are not rare. They happen and they count.

Our keepers have killed us, which almost everyone acknowledges but for some reason few want to accept that that is the problem. But we would have 4-9 more points with average goalkeeping.

 

[ZYanksRule]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1416734665357119492

It's still early enough in the season that, for me, this is more encouraging than frustrating. We are within striking distance for the top teams in the conference, and if we continue playing like this we'll be just fine. I feel like because it's July we all feel like we're 20 games into the season, but we're just barely 33% of the way through. There are 17 games between now and the start of October. There are so many points on the table, and if we're all patient I think we'll be pleasantly rewarded.

 

[ZYanksRule]

If you take out our 5 goal game, an obvious aberration, where do we rank? Mid table in goals scored?

Are we also removing everyone else's five-goal games, since those were an obvious aberration?

 

[Kjbert]

Are we also removing everyone else's five-goal games, since those were an obvious aberration?

Sure.

 

[SoupInNYC]

I told everyone Matarrita was our best player in 2020 and I got laughed at. But I hope you enjoy his GAM and Malte Admunson.

Were people really laughing though? I mean, I think the overall general consensus was that Tinnerholm was our best player last year, and maybe on that note took offense to suggesting Matarrita was our best.

But I’m pretty sure the overall consensus was also that Matarrita was one of our top players last season. I know at least I was in that boat.

 

[Kenny]

Were people really laughing though? I mean, I think the overall general consensus was that Tinnerholm was our best player last year, and maybe on that note took offense to suggesting Matarrita was our best.

But I’m pretty sure the overall consensus was also that Matarrita was one of our top players last season. I know at least I was in that boat.

me too. I was more concerned about him leaving than Ring, in terms of on-the-field impact.

 

[ZYanksRule]

Were people really laughing though? I mean, I think the overall general consensus was that Tinnerholm was our best player last year, and maybe on that note took offense to suggesting Matarrita was our best.

But I’m pretty sure the overall consensus was also that Matarrita was one of our top players last season. I know at least I was in that boat.

I thought Matarrita was a great regular-season player, but was not the kind of player you can have on your team if you want to win in the playoffs. He gets too over-excited and makes silly, dumb mistakes and lapses in judgement in big games.

 

[Fantazma]

NYCFC lost their first 4 regular season games last season.

lol wow totally forgot we had two games before the shut down

 

[Fantazma]

NYCFC lost their first 4 regular season games last season.

lol wow totally forgot we had two games before the shutdown.

 

[Keith Putnam]

It's still early enough in the season that, for me, this is more encouraging than frustrating. We are within striking distance for the top teams in the conference, and if we continue playing like this we'll be just fine. I feel like because it's July we all feel like we're 20 games into the season, but we're just barely 33% of the way through. There are 17 games between now and the start of October. There are so many points on the table, and if we're all patient I think we'll be pleasantly rewarded.

To that point, here's the current state of the East sorted by xGD:


If you include the West as well we're 4th in the league.

 

[Gotham Gator]

It’s so easy to dislike Porter.

I know someone who agrees with you.

 

[Gotham Gator]

And this guy too.

 

[Schwallacus]

NYCFC leads the East in goals per game.

Our keepers have cost us points in -- very conservatively -- 4 games DC, ORL, CLB, CLB. One could make a case to add New England and Montreal to the list.

Yet there is a widespread belief that our problem is offense -- here, Twitter, Reddit. People are crazy. We have scored more goals than anyone in the East game to game. And you cannot rely on the 5 goals against Cincinnati any more to claim our total is inflated. DC has a 7-goal game. Nashville and Orlando both have 5 goal games. Montreal has a 5 and a 4, and Cincinnati has a 4. Big number games are not rare. They happen and they count.

Our keepers have killed us, which almost everyone acknowledges but for some reason few want to accept that that is the problem. But we would have 4-9 more points with average goalkeeping.

The interesting thing is that aside from the 5-goal game against Cincy, NYC hasn't scored more than 2 goals in any other game. We also haven't been shutout (knocks on wood). We only score 1 or 2 goals in a game. Usually, I think we should strive to have a few games with 3 goals thrown into the mix. Chicago and their shit offense has still been able to score multiple 3-goal games, while they've also been deprived of any goals for games at a time.

NYCFC's offense has at least been consistent. We take a ton of shots, score a goal or two, and underperform our xG. It seems to me that people are looking at the underperformance of xG as a sign our offense is bad/not up to snuff, even though we are a top team in GPG. We've only out-performed our xG in 4 out of 12 games so far, including the Cincy game.

I do fully agree that the goaltending has been our biggest issue thus far, with Johnson and Barraza both underperforming. Our goaltending is our primary issue, and more people need to be aware of this, but it's not as if our offense has been performing up to its potential either.

 

[Kjbert]

The interesting thing is that aside from the 5-goal game against Cincy, NYC hasn't scored more than 2 goals in any other game. We also haven't been shutout (knocks on wood). We only score 1 or 2 goals in a game. Usually, I think we should strive to have a few games with 3 goals thrown into the mix. Chicago and their shit offense has still been able to score multiple 3-goal games, while they've also been deprived of any goals for games at a time.

NYCFC's offense has at least been consistent. We take a ton of shots, score a goal or two, and underperform our xG. It seems to me that people are looking at the underperformance of xG as a sign our offense is bad/not up to snuff, even though we are a top team in GPG. We've only out-performed our xG in 4 out of 12 games so far, including the Cincy game.

I do fully agree that the goaltending has been our biggest issue thus far, with Johnson and Barraza both underperforming. Our goaltending is our primary issue, and more people need to be aware of this, but it's not as if our offense has been performing up to its potential either.

So we have a very high xG. We dominate possession. And yet we only score 1-2 goals per game and we seem to lose 2-1 or draw 1-1.
We give ourselves NO margin for error and then we go and make errors. Penalties. Dumb fouls around the box. Turnovers.

 

[mgarbowski]

[ignore]

 

[mgarbowski]

The interesting thing is that aside from the 5-goal game against Cincy, NYC hasn't scored more than 2 goals in any other game. We also haven't been shutout (knocks on wood). We only score 1 or 2 goals in a game. Usually, I think we should strive to have a few games with 3 goals thrown into the mix. Chicago and their shit offense has still been able to score multiple 3-goal games, while they've also been deprived of any goals for games at a time.

NYCFC's offense has at least been consistent. We take a ton of shots, score a goal or two, and underperform our xG. It seems to me that people are looking at the underperformance of xG as a sign our offense is bad/not up to snuff, even though we are a top team in GPG. We've only out-performed our xG in 4 out of 12 games so far, including the Cincy game.

I do fully agree that the goaltending has been our biggest issue thus far, with Johnson and Barraza both underperforming. Our goaltending is our primary issue, and more people need to be aware of this, but it's not as if our offense has been performing up to its potential either.

We'd almost certainly be better off to have been held scoreless 2-3 times and trade those for an additional 2-3 multi goal games, for the same goal total. But that again is mostly because we have a habit of giving up bad goals in games we should win 1-0 or at least draw 1-1. Otherwise, it's hard to argue we should have been held scoreless more often.

But the goal allowance ratios are terrible:
Per game, NYC ranks 8th best in shots allowed, 2nd best in xGA allowed, but only 16th best in goals allowed. And NYCFC is 23rd best in goals allowed per shot. To be fair to our keepers, we also have a tendency to allow open space in the area just outside the 18-yard box. Basically our defense excels the entire field until you get about 5-8 yards away from our 18-yard box, and we're also great inside the box. But that 5-8 yard strip kills us.

 

[SoupInNYC]

So we have a very high xG. We dominate possession. And yet we only score 1-2 goals per game and we seem to lose 2-1 or draw 1-1.
We give ourselves NO margin for error and then we go and make errors. Penalties. Dumb fouls around the box. Turnovers.

I'd argue that the large number of shots and xG we create gives ourselves a very wide margin of error. And I think underperforming xG will turn around. There are quite a few other teams that are currently "underperforming" their xG. I'm including current above the playoff line teams, in rank with lowest G-xG, and their current standing

• Minnesota, 6th in West, -7.49 G-xG (worst in league)
• LAFC, 5th in West, -4.37 G-xG (5th worst in league)
• Portland, 7th in West, -3.58 G-xG (6th worst in league)
• Nashville, 5th in East, -2.44 G-xG (9th worst in league)
• NYC, 7th in East, -1.12 G-xG (12th worst in league)
• SKC, 2nd in West, -0.94 G-xG (14th worst in league)
• New England, 1st in East, -0.20 G-xG (15th worst in league)

For those teams currently above playoff lines, NYCFC is dead last in GA-xGA with 0.36 (2nd worst in the league, TFC is worst).

Looking at some historical data, it still seems that teams that generate the highest xG GD perform best over the season and into the playoffs. Those exceptions come from those who outperform their GA-xGA (2020 Columbus, 2019 Seattle)

 

[moogoo]

We'd almost certainly be better off to have been held scoreless 2-3 times and trade those for an additional 2-3 multi goal games, for the same goal total. But that again is mostly because we have a habit of giving up bad goals in games we should win 1-0 or at least draw 1-1. Otherwise, it's hard to argue we should have been held scoreless more often.

But the goal allowance ratios are terrible:
Per game, NYC ranks 8th best in shots allowed, 2nd best in xGA allowed, but only 16th best in goals allowed. And NYCFC is 23rd best in goals allowed per shot. To be fair to our keepers, we also have a tendency to allow open space in the area just outside the 18-yard box. Basically our defense excels the entire field until you get about 5-8 yards away from our 18-yard box, and we're also great inside the box. But that 5-8 yard strip kills us.

that area outside the box is where Parks, Morales, and Acevedo are tasked with taking control of. Unfortunately, they have been a little slow to pick up on what's happening and tend to turn their backs at the slightest hint of a shot (something I never understood.. why do so many people turn their backs now??). TO be fair, I think both Parks and Acevedo have improved a lot in their defensive efforts the last few games. If they continue playing there together, I think we will see improvements there going forward. Morales is still Morales. His style of play seems very casual. I'm not too high on him even if I am the only one on that boat.

 

[Keith Putnam]

We'd almost certainly be better off to have been held scoreless 2-3 times and trade those for an additional 2-3 multi goal games, for the same goal total. But that again is mostly because we have a habit of giving up bad goals in games we should win 1-0 or at least draw 1-1. Otherwise, it's hard to argue we should have been held scoreless more often.

But the goal allowance ratios are terrible:
Per game, NYC ranks 8th best in shots allowed, 2nd best in xGA allowed, but only 16th best in goals allowed. And NYCFC is 23rd best in goals allowed per shot. To be fair to our keepers, we also have a tendency to allow open space in the area just outside the 18-yard box. Basically our defense excels the entire field until you get about 5-8 yards away from our 18-yard box, and we're also great inside the box. But that 5-8 yard strip kills us.

This is exactly the kind of analysis we have to hope is being shown to Ronny, and, further, hope he has any idea what to do about it.

 

[Kjbert]

So offensively, we miss Matarrita and haven’t replaced Heber. Defensively, we miss Ring. That’s the personnel story I’m reading into these stats.
Good thing we spent the Ring money on Amundsen and the Matarrita money on Morales.