MLS - September 11 - New England (Away)

[moogoo]

I admire the numbers people who break down the game with statistics as I have a phobia in that department. It is an interesting way to look at the game. My way is not so interesting as the way I look at the reason this team is dropping points is that they simply haven’t scored more or as many goals than their opponents 8 times this season for zero out of a possible 24 points. The numbers that are simple enough for me to examine: NYCFC has a plus 14 goal differential while Orlando, ahead of us in the standings, has plus 4. (I understand they have played one more match but even a W for the game in hand we’d still be behind them) They’ve done better with less? Play better over the full 90+?

Is the problem with NYCFC inefficiency? Bad luck? Missing that je ne sais quoi?

i would say for the first half of the season, bad luck had something to do with it as our losses were down to a single mistake at times.

the last month, we have not been very consistent in our performances. take this game vs the revs, we had a bright start on attack, but defensively we were a mess for most of the game. it became clear why after the game and both jasson and ronny said in their press confs that the team didn't know how to defend well.

jasson said there wasn't any clear idea about who was going to press and when but said they eventually got the hang of it.... not so sure about that.
ronny said something similar about learning when and how to press, when to back off so we don't get caught on long balls and quick counters, etc.

it seemed to me like thiago and talles were very lost about how to press with the team. that made our defensive shape shaky.

i think we performed better with our usual XI. having the rotations due to injury, international callups, and suspensions has thrown a wrench in our usual, fairly disciplined play, especially defensively.

I think once we get back in the groove with our usual Xi, things will get better. Just gotta hope for no more injuries.

it'll be interesting to see what we do vs Dallas as we will be without our current #9. If i were ronny, i would probably play Talles there cause he seems to be good at hold up. but guess we'll see.

 

[Shwafta]

I admire the numbers people who break down the game with statistics as I have a phobia in that department. It is an interesting way to look at the game. My way is not so interesting as the way I look at the reason this team is dropping points is that they simply haven’t scored more or as many goals than their opponents 8 times this season for zero out of a possible 24 points. The numbers that are simple enough for me to examine: NYCFC has a plus 14 goal differential while Orlando, ahead of us in the standings, has plus 4. (I understand they have played one more match but even a W for the game in hand we’d still be behind them) They’ve done better with less? Play better over the full 90+?

Is the problem with NYCFC inefficiency? Bad luck? Missing that je ne sais quoi?

GD doesn't tell you much, unfortunately. Which is why Mark brings in all those other stats, to try to figure out kinda what you're looking for. An even GD just means that it's very likely Orlando wins and loses by very small margins. And indeed this year, they've won by at least a 2-goal margin:
3-1 against philly
3-0 against cincy
5-0 against san jose
Conversly, they've lost by at least a 2-goal margin:
3-1 against chicago
3-0 against Atlanta
5-0 against NYC

....Wow, that's very eerie just how perfectly that lines up. but it makes sense, in a way. The rest of their results are ties or 1-goal wins/losses.

Compare that to NYC, we've won by at least 2 goals.... seven times. We've lost by at least 1 goal.... one time. And that was last week against Nashville. So the goal difference is very high because we just don't get blown out as much as we blow other teams out.

 

[Gotham Gator]

I think there is some luck involved in the following way. Assume the game is about creating chances to score and that there is some luck as to when the chances are converted. If a team's goals tend to be lumpy - i.e. some several chances are converted, and in others only a few - then that team's points will be low compared to its goal differential.

This is another way of saying a team that scores 5 goals in 3 games and 1 goal in 3 games will likely have fewer points than a team that scores 3 points in all 6 games.

We have scored 5 goals twice, 4 goals once, and haven't scored 3 times.

 

[Antidote P. Smiley]

GD doesn't tell you much, unfortunately. Which is why Mark brings in all those other stats, to try to figure out kinda what you're looking for. An even GD just means that it's very likely Orlando wins and loses by very small margins. And indeed this year, they've won by at least a 2-goal margin:
3-1 against philly
3-0 against cincy
5-0 against san jose
Conversly, they've lost by at least a 2-goal margin:
3-1 against chicago
3-0 against Atlanta
5-0 against NYC

....Wow, that's very eerie just how perfectly that lines up. but it makes sense, in a way. The rest of their results are ties or 1-goal wins/losses.

Compare that to NYC, we've won by at least 2 goals.... seven times. We've lost by at least 1 goal.... one time. And that was last week against Nashville. So the goal difference is very high because we just don't get blown out as much as we blow other teams out.

I’ll accept that GD doesn’t tell you much but does it tell you something about NYCFC?

PTS GD
55 18
45 17
43 13
42 11
41 17
34 14 (NYCFC)

I’m leaning towards je ne sais quoi.