NYCFC Season Discussion 2024: The Definition of NYCFC is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over and Getting the Same Result

[Marito]

Today is the day I complain about finishing.

You know how much I hate this. I usually think complaining about finishing is lazy. Last year, especially before the break, NYCFC took far too few shots and generated too little xG. But the finishing was average. Per game they scored 1.00 goals on 1.04 xG and 11 Shots.

After the break the finishing suffered in a very small sample. In the final 10 games NYCFC scored 1.00 goals on 1.49 xG and 14.3 Shots. In 2024 they show astonishing consistency in continuing to score 1.00 Goals per game, now on 1.47 xG and 14.73 Shots.

Per game in 2024 NYCFC ranks 6th in Shots taken, 9th in xG generated, and 27th in Goals Scored.
NYCFC has the second worst "Goal minus xGoal" differential behind DC. But DC also has 5.21 more xG and 5 more actual Goals.

Turning to individual players Goal minus xGoal stats: in 2024, Bakrar ranks absolute worst in MLS at -4.12. Wolf is third worst at -2.20. That's the story of 2024 NYCFC so far. They feature 2 of the worst 3 finishers in the league. Net out those 2 players and NYCFC has a positive Goal-xG of +1.19, and exactly the same number of goals.

Combine 2023 and 2024 and Bakrar's finishing is epically bad. Per ASA, the worst single MLS season since 2013 (minimum 1,500 minutes) was Daniel Salloi in 2019 at -0.37. In 2023 and 2024 combined Bakrar stands at -0.37 in 1,698 minutes, so he would be tied for worst if he did this in one season. The next worst in 2023 and 2024 combined is Sang-Bin Jeong (Minnesota) at -0.18. It's not close.

If you want hopeful news, 2019 was the only time Salloi had a negative G-xG in 5 full MLS seasons and his MLS average overall was +0.01. Extremely poor or good finishing is not generally replicable. As painful and frustrating as it is, for stat purposes, 21 games over 2 seasons for Bakrar is an extremely small sample. I can't guarantee Bakrar improves, but he probably will.

Also, to pick up on the Salloi comparison, in 2021 (2 years after his annus horribilis of 2019) he scored 16 goals on 12.66 Gx, which is very high for a winger, had 8 assists and was 97th percentile in G+A per 90. He was a dark horse pick for MLS MVP, whereas in 5 seasons in MLS we can probably conclude he is a pretty good winger but nothing to write home about. So, year-to-year variability and reversion to mean over a large sample. Right?

 

[mgarbowski]

Also, to pick up on the Salloi comparison, in 2021 (2 years after his annus horribilis of 2019) he scored 16 goals on 12.66 Gx, which is very high for a winger, had 8 assists and was 97th percentile in G+A per 90. He was a dark horse pick for MLS MVP, whereas in 5 seasons in MLS we can probably conclude he is a pretty good winger but nothing to write home about. So, year-to-year variability and reversion to mean over a large sample. Right?

Exactly. Despite what seems to be consistent failure by Bakrar, we simply don't know. what to expect from him over a longer period.

 

[JayH]

Today is the day I complain about finishing.

You know how much I hate this. I usually think complaining about finishing is lazy. Last year, especially before the break, NYCFC took far too few shots and generated too little xG. But the finishing was average. Per game they scored 1.00 goals on 1.04 xG and 11 Shots.

After the break the finishing suffered in a very small sample. In the final 10 games NYCFC scored 1.00 goals on 1.49 xG and 14.3 Shots. In 2024 they show astonishing consistency in continuing to score 1.00 Goals per game, now on 1.47 xG and 14.73 Shots.

Per game in 2024 NYCFC ranks 6th in Shots taken, 9th in xG generated, and 27th in Goals Scored.
NYCFC has the second worst "Goal minus xGoal" differential behind DC. But DC also has 5.21 more xG and 5 more actual Goals.

Turning to individual players Goal minus xGoal stats: in 2024, Bakrar ranks absolute worst in MLS at -4.12. Wolf is third worst at -2.20. That's the story of 2024 NYCFC so far. They feature 2 of the worst 3 finishers in the league. Net out those 2 players and NYCFC has a positive Goal-xG of +1.19, and exactly the same number of goals.

Combine 2023 and 2024 and Bakrar's finishing is epically bad. Per ASA, the worst single MLS season since 2013 (minimum 1,500 minutes) was Daniel Salloi in 2019 at -0.37 (ETA per game). In 2023 and 2024 combined Bakrar stands at -0.37 in 1,698 minutes, so he would be tied for worst if he did this in one season. The next worst in 2023 and 2024 combined is Sang-Bin Jeong (Minnesota) at -0.18. It's not close.

If you want hopeful news, 2019 was the only time Salloi had a negative G-xG in 5 full MLS seasons and his MLS average overall was +0.01. Extremely poor or good finishing is not generally replicable. As painful and frustrating as it is, for stat purposes, 21 games over 2 seasons for Bakrar is an extremely small sample. I can't guarantee Bakrar improves, but he probably will.

I am still holding out hope that the Bakrar production evens out over time as it should. But I also would not be surprised if Lee somehow managed to wait a year to replace Taty with a striker who is so historically poor at striking that he defies both statistics and logic.

 

[gbservis]

I am still holding out hope that the Bakrar production evens out over time as it should. But I also would not be surprised if Lee somehow managed to wait a year to replace Taty with a striker who is so historically poor at striking that he defies both statistics and logic.

Given that Jovan seems to be below Jones and likely Jasson on the depth chart it seems that Bakrar will have plenty of time to work through it.

 

[moogoo]

Given that Jovan seems to be below Jones and likely Jasson on the depth chart it seems that Bakrar will have plenty of time to work through it.

this is crazy to me for such a big money transfer. is he that out of shape? or is it a personality/attitude thing that he doesn't get on well with cushing or maybe other players? we gots to know!

 

[JayH]

Given that Jovan seems to be below Jones and likely Jasson on the depth chart it seems that Bakrar will have plenty of time to work through it.

All things considered (and unfortunately there is a lot to consider), I think the o/u on goals scored by Jovan this season is probably at or around 3G.

 

[mgarbowski]

I am still holding out hope that the Bakrar production evens out over time as it should. But I also would not be surprised if Lee somehow managed to wait a year to replace Taty with a striker who is so historically poor at striking that he defies both statistics and logic.

The clearest avoidable fail was waiting a year. If they replaced Taty immediately and the new guy sputtered for a year you just have to deal with it. It happens. By waiting a year they guaranteed the fanbase would have zero patience, and for a change fan impatience is pretty much justified.

From inception though Taty's last game in 2022 NYCFC scored 1.71 goals per game over 248 games. Since Taty left they have scored 1.07 goals per game over 58 games. It's so dismal to watch. 2015 NYCFC was terrible but scored 1.44 G/Gm. They would lose but you had a reasonable number of moments to cheer. Currently, we have had almost 2 full years of joyless soccer. All time until Taty left NYCFC was shut out 17% of games; since then 29%.

One last metric: games scoring 3 or more goals. From 2015 through Taty's departure, it happened 55 times, 22% or slightly more than once every 5 games. NYCFC never had a season where they did it fewer than 5 times. They even scored at least 3 goals 7 times in a short 2020 season, and 6 times in the first 22 games of 2022 before Taty left.

Since Taty left? NYCFC has scored at least 3 goals just 3 times in 58 games. Zero in the back end of 2022. Zero so far in 2024, and 3 times total in 2023. Each was the minimum of 3 goals. The last time they scored 4 was July 9, 2022.

 

[Marito]

The clearest avoidable fail was waiting a year. If they replaced Taty immediately and the new guy sputtered for a year you just have to deal with it. It happens. By waiting a year they guaranteed the fanbase would have zero patience, and for a change fan impatience is pretty much justified.

From inception though Taty's last game in 2022 NYCFC scored 1.71 goals per game over 248 games. Since Taty left they have scored 1.07 goals per game over 58 games. It's so dismal to watch. 2015 NYCFC was terrible but scored 1.44 G/Gm. They would lose but you had a reasonable number of moments to cheer. Currently, we have had almost 2 full years of joyless soccer. All time until Taty left NYCFC was shut out 17% of games; since then 29%.

One last metric: games scoring 3 or more goals. From 2015 through Taty's departure, it happened 55 times, 22% or slightly more than once every 5 games. NYCFC never had a season where they did it fewer than 5 times. They even scored at least 3 goals 7 times in a short 2020 season, and 6 times in the first 22 games of 2022 before Taty left.

Since Taty left? NYCFC has scored at least 3 goals just 3 times in 58 games. Zero in the back end of 2022. Zero so far in 2024, and 3 times total in 2023. Each was the minimum of 3 goals. The last time they scored 4 was July 9, 2022.

These are damning statistics. Also, although I think there are no bottom feeders left in MLS, and all teams have increased spending enormously, so that you don't really get those subpar teams you could pummel, the ELP shows that evenly matched teams can still play 4-3 matches.

 

[joe]

Currently, we have had almost 2 full years of joyless soccer.

 

[ZYanksRule]

I know we didn't have enough talent for most of 2023, but at this point I think there's enough evidence to suggest that Nick Cushing isn't a good offensive coach, and doesn't get the most out of his roster. The roster was good enough to be better than it was last year, and we're certainly better than what we've played last year. I continue to question players' development under him.

 

[moogoo]

I know we didn't have enough talent for most of 2023, but at this point I think there's enough evidence to suggest that Nick Cushing isn't a good offensive coach, and doesn't get the most out of his roster. The roster was good enough to be better than it was last year, and we're certainly better than what we've played last year. I continue to question players' development under him.

i think the biggest disadvantage we have is lack of VETERAN attacking talent. we've been lucky to have veteran players in the spine of the team to guide the youngins but we simply don't have that and that's especially true in the attack. While Maxi is around still, he doesn't understand a winger/striker mentality. Martinez may be decent as a veteran attacker, but is he the type to guide young players? who knows. I think if we had a veteran 9 to guide bakrar right now, it would be extremely meaningful to his development. But we don't and it's hurting us.

right now we have a bunch of kids who all have varying levels of talent but still aren't experts of their position. I really doubt cushing can provide that insight that a veteran attacker has. so we are stuck with young talent that stagnates instead of developing.

 

[CCMore]

I would like to give a shout to all the “Cushing out”ers out there. (Myself included) I want to say that this run of form at home has been excellent and I’m extremely proud of how the boys and Cushing have turned it around. Although I do fear for the next month or 2. But as of right now the silence of the chant is definitely deafening, and for good reason. I hope we keep the good vibes flowing and the work rate high even in stormier seas.

Welp, I spoke too soon. Not that I have much to add. But I kept having a feeling that this excellent run of form was more to do with individual offensive talent than an orchestrated build up by Cushing. But I am still not sure that it is my built in bias. Meaning in the bad time it’s the coach’s fault and in the good times it’s because of the individual players instead of the attack the coach built. I feel like it’s hard to quantify without actually being at training and seeing what the players are told to do in their day to day practices leading up to game play.

 

[mgarbowski]

i think the biggest disadvantage we have is lack of VETERAN attacking talent. we've been lucky to have veteran players in the spine of the team to guide the youngins but we simply don't have that and that's especially true in the attack. While Maxi is around still, he doesn't understand a winger/striker mentality. Martinez may be decent as a veteran attacker, but is he the type to guide young players? who knows. I think if we had a veteran 9 to guide bakrar right now, it would be extremely meaningful to his development. But we don't and it's hurting us.

right now we have a bunch of kids who all have varying levels of talent but still aren't experts of their position. I really doubt cushing can provide that insight that a veteran attacker has. so we are stuck with young talent that stagnates instead of developing.

While researching this morning I noticed that none of the new attacking kids have played a substantial number of minutes. Fernandez has the most with 426, then Ojeda 298, , Jones 113, and Mijatovic 67. Relative elder Martinez has 204. Meanwhile Santi has 971, Bakrar 808, and Wolf 788.

Playing time is zero sum, and I'm sure there is support for reducing PT for Bakrar and Wolf at this point. But it's hard to mentor when you got benched for never scoring. Meanwhile the minutes for the new kids are spread among the 5 listed above, plus Jasson.

Once again I'm defending Nick without really wanting to, but it's a tough problem to solve. It makes sense to begin by relying mostly on the guys with the most experience, but 2 of them have failed completely through 1/3 of a season. You want to give all the newbies a shot, and as a result none of them end up with major playing time. Maybe the answer from here is Santi, Martinez, Fernandez, and rotate among the rest of the kids. But benching the guy who was brought in to lead the scoring is to admit major roster failure. Then you have Wolf: I don't know what they saw to make them think he would produce since his high point was scoring 8 goals in consecutive years in Austria 5-6 years ago. Imagine if we had a guy with a proven record of scoring 8-15 goals over the most recent 4-6 years at any professional level. But we don't and that was a choice.

Roster failure exists even if you don't admit it.

 

[ZYanksRule]

i think the biggest disadvantage we have is lack of VETERAN attacking talent. we've been lucky to have veteran players in the spine of the team to guide the youngins but we simply don't have that and that's especially true in the attack. While Maxi is around still, he doesn't understand a winger/striker mentality. Martinez may be decent as a veteran attacker, but is he the type to guide young players? who knows. I think if we had a veteran 9 to guide bakrar right now, it would be extremely meaningful to his development. But we don't and it's hurting us.

right now we have a bunch of kids who all have varying levels of talent but still aren't experts of their position. I really doubt cushing can provide that insight that a veteran attacker has. so we are stuck with young talent that stagnates instead of developing.

I think our lack of veteran talent up front is overdone. Santiago Rodriguez has played 100 MLS games. He's young, but he's a veteran at this point.

Hannes Wolf is 25 and has been playing top-flight football for at least 6 or 7 years. He's also a veteran as far as I'm concerned. According to Transfermarkt, Hannes has well over 200 career first-team appearances. He has enough experience that while this is his first season in New York, he's not a young player anymore.

 

[Antidote P. Smiley]

I think our lack of veteran talent up front is overdone. Santiago Rodriguez has played 100 MLS games. He's young, but he's a veteran at this point.

Hannes Wolf is 25 and has been playing top-flight football for at least 6 or 7 years. He's also a veteran as far as I'm concerned. According to Transfermarkt, Hannes has well over 200 career first-team appearances. He has enough experience that while this is his first season in New York, he's not a young player anymore.

Possibly a good point but looking at the team currently in first place in the eastern conference they have an abundance of really veteran talent. They are like crypt keeper age by comparison.

 

[moogoo]

I think our lack of veteran talent up front is overdone. Santiago Rodriguez has played 100 MLS games. He's young, but he's a veteran at this point.

Hannes Wolf is 25 and has been playing top-flight football for at least 6 or 7 years. He's also a veteran as far as I'm concerned. According to Transfermarkt, Hannes has well over 200 career first-team appearances. He has enough experience that while this is his first season in New York, he's not a young player anymore.

neither are #9s.

hannes can be a winger, but he's not what i would consider a traditional winger (e.g, pacey and 1v1 specialist).

both, i think are young enough, they should be learning from a true veteran. at least santi has maxi.

 

[canchon]

“Who’s the coach of NYCFC?”
“Nick Cushing.”
“How would you describe his coaching style?”
“Joyless soccer.”

That’s it. We finally have the best description of Cushing ball.

 

[mgarbowski]

I think our lack of veteran talent up front is overdone. Santiago Rodriguez has played 100 MLS games. He's young, but he's a veteran at this point.

Hannes Wolf is 25 and has been playing top-flight football for at least 6 or 7 years. He's also a veteran as far as I'm concerned. According to Transfermarkt, Hannes has well over 200 career first-team appearances. He has enough experience that while this is his first season in New York, he's not a young player anymore.

Our experience is nowhere near league level, and our oldest offensive vets have a ridiculously limited record of achievement. Santi, Wolf and Bakrar have a combined 72 career goals.

Ignore Miami because that’s borderline unfair to compare them to anyone. I looked at rosters for the next 4 top east conference teams and simply guessed who their top 3 most prolific scorers are and this is what I got for lifetime goals:

Cincinnati 163
Red Bull 206
Toronto 196
Columbus 172

NYCFC’s veteran offensive leaders have less than half the goals of each of those. To the extent we have veterans they haven’t done much.