NYCFC Season Discussion 2024: The Definition of NYCFC is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over and Getting the Same Result

[mgarbowski]

Cup. Way too long. Seattle is 14-1, RSL 16-1, Cincy 18-1. Before seeing any of these I would have guessed we would be 18-1 ish.

Honestly the odds for those other teams seem a bit low to me but I guess the casinos have to scrape by somehow. 40-1 for NYC and the Cup seems about right, and I was half joking in my question. Though you never know so only half joking.

Occasional reminder that the last time a team won MLS Cup finishing below fourth place in its conference was 2010 (Rapids, 5th) and in that time just 3 fourth place teams won:

2021 NYCFC 1-1 via kicks.
Seattle 2016 0-0 via kicks
2012 LA Galaxy 3-1

NYC has maybe a 10-15% chance of finishing fourth and otherwise will be lower. And MLS Cup winners finish top 3 in their conference 75+% of the time. Long odds.

 

[JayH]

Honestly the odds for those other teams seem a bit low to me but I guess the casinos have to scrape by somehow. 40-1 for NYC and the Cup seems about right, and I was half joking in my question. Though you never know so only half joking.

Occasional reminder that the last time a team won MLS Cup finishing below fourth place in its conference was 2010 (Rapids, 5th) and in that time just 3 fourth place teams won:

2021 NYCFC 1-1 via kicks.
Seattle 2016 0-0 via kicks
2012 LA Galaxy 3-1.

NYC has maybe a 10-15% chance of finishing fourth and otherwise will be lower. And MLS Cup winners finish top 3 in their conference 75+% of the time. Long odds.

All good points. I am biased by the fact that one of my kids has us at close to 100 percent since the Sands goal against Miami. He’s very persuasive.

 

[mgarbowski]

All good points. I am biased by the fact that one of my kids has us at close to 100 percent since the KP goal against Miami. He’s very persuasive.

He and M moogoo are drinking the optimistic Kool-Aid and I'm here for it.

But I ain't putting money on it.

 

[JayH]

He and M moogoo are drinking the optimistic Kool-Aid and I'm here for it.

But I ain't putting money on it.

And by KP I of course mean Sands. He is usually very realistic about our chances but he’s full Moogoo on them. I would never bet on the clubs I support, but he convinced me to check their odds and do so.